Book 1 - The Behemoth came to Canterlot

by Equimorto

Review

"What's the worst thing that could happen?"

"That's a great question. I don't think it's one with a great answer. The simple truth is that the possible results are so varied and our knowledge of the situation and events so limited that there is no clear, hard defined limit to what could happen. We could continue to come up with scenarios each more miserable than the last, each just as likely to occur in that we have no concrete way of measuring what is and isn't likely to occur in what we can consider a worst case scenario."

"I suppose by that same logic it's equally pointless to try and discern what a best case scenario would be."

"Somewhat. It's not too hard to imagine one, say that the situation will simply end and the damage be reverted. But as we've established this is unlikely to happen. Because of this, perhaps it is best to focus on the worst and best outcomes within the cone of probability we consider most likely to present itself."

"With how little we know and how many variables are at play, it's quite presumptuous to assume we can estimate this with any kind of credible certainty."

"Doubtlessly. Nevertheless, the alternative is acting in complete ignorance. I wouldn't be surprised if the scope of our calculations turned out to be a hundred times off, or even a thousand, but as feeble and weak as our light might be it's still preferable to a shot in the dark. I'd rather trust our only possible lead than act in blindness."

"The blame for the consequences of the path we'll follow will rest on the shoulders of the one who chose to lead us down it. Even if you are right that there is no worthwhile alternative, choosing to follow this light will still create hope. If that hope is shattered, you will be seen as the culprit."

"If I lead those I've sworn to protect into danger I will accept whatever punishment they choose to impose on me. I will not let them wander alone. My station was always to take the blame for the harm that might come to them. It's what it means to be a leader and a protector, and it's what I chose to be myself."

"Admirable of you to say so. But they will need you, even if you fail. Take my advice on the matter. If you feel you have not fulfilled your duty as you should have, save your punishment for safer times. You've said it yourself, in darkness a fallible leader is still better than none at all."

"If I don't fulfill my duty, there might never be safer times."

"Then you will have your punishment. You may not agree, and neither will they, but I know for you seeing harm come to them would be a punishment sufficient in itself for your failings."

"That is not how the world works, nor how I wish it to. I could not set such an example."

"You're not a perfect leader. But I do believe you are the best they have. I hope it will be enough."

Comments

[FanOfMostEverything]

Almost definitely Twilight. The other speaker is more ambiguous. Celestia? Sunburst? I suppose we’ll find out if it truly matters.