3149959

Why do you say this? Are people in Poland, for example, more supportive of lifting sanctions now?

No. For now, most people in Poland know this is a painful necessity, and we're willing to take it. But the further west you go, the less supportive of sanctions people are.

Putin is playing the same game as the rest of the free world, hoping that raising prices will cause so much uprising in the West that the EU will crack from the inside and withdraw sanctions. Sadly, he may succeed.

Many EU countries are very reliant on Russia's gas and oil, and thanks to the 'gas roulette' Putin was playing months before the war, their oil and gas reserves are pretty empty. So when Putin says 'buy gas in rubles, or else!' officially, everyone is like 'hell no!' but unofficially... we got reports of countries already bending and paying. It's only a matter of time before more countries follow Hungary, break out and start calling for 'business as usual.'

Does the Russian government really believe the Ukrainians will ever stop fighting them?

Seems illogical, doesn't it? And yet, here we are... No one knows what's inside Putin's head. I just know his brain could use some lead-powered ventilation .

3149799

I hope we'll never have to find out which scenario would prevail, but the less optimistic/more realistic people here believe in AD2

Gotcha. Honestly, that's a rational fear, and I have no clue which path the U.S. would take. On the bright side, I wouldn't be surprised at this point if Poland can hold off Russia all on their own. Oh, the combat footage I've seen

Unfortunately, it's a waiting game, and regardless of the fairytale some western media are trying to sell, time doesn't appear to be on our side

Why do you say this? Are people in Poland, for example, more supportive of lifting sanctions now?

Some say he has a dream to restore the USSR. Others say that Russia really fears Ukraine joining NATO. Yet others claim that large deposits of gas and oil were discovered in the Donbas area, and it's a classic war for resources...

Unfortunately, no one, but Putin, knows that for sure, and it's unlikely he will share it...

Why not all three haha? Even though all three reasons are logical (though obviously terrible), I just don't see any way the Russians can win in the long-term. Does the Russian government really believe the Ukrainians will ever stop fighting them? That's why I compared this to Afghanistan. Even if the U.S. stayed in Afghanistan until 2122, the Taliban would still be fighting us haha.

3148947

I actually disagree about Article 5. [...]

To be clear, I have no doubt that NATO will react if shit hits the fan; the question is HOW. Basically, two versions have been discussed lately:

1. An optimistic one, in which NATO reacts in full force and in 24-72 hours the invaded country has a shitload of allied troops and latest hardware on its soil, teaching invaders about democracy 10 kilotonnes at the time while ignoring any and all threats of nuclear war that may be coming NATO's way. If NATO reacted like that, ANY war against any of its members would be over in less than a week. But this strategy requires unity and leaders with 'cojones' - both of which are in rather short supply in the West lately...
2. A pessimistic one, in which NATO reacts, but slowly and only in a limited capacity while strengthening its position along the German border and waiting for the primary offensive there. In this one, the attacked country would be used as a 'bleeding ground' to weaken the invader as much as possible. Such a scenario would mean that many polish and/or baltic state cities would be facing a fate similar to Mariupol, and fighting could take months, if not years, leaving the country in ruins.

I hope we'll never have to find out which scenario would prevail, but the less optimistic/more realistic people here believe in AD2 .

Also, Putin has singlehandedly made NATO relevant again and created a greater unity between the nations. I definitely sense a greater camaraderie in the U.S. when Americans talk about nations like Poland.

I don't know about the States, but that 'unity' in the EU is pretty fragile and for the show. Sure, officially, everyone (minus maybe Orban) is saying how brave Ukrainians are, how Putin is a murderer, how Russia must pay for the war, etc. But... once you start looking at the actual ACTIONS, things are not at all pretty.

It was bad enough that sanctions were heavily watered down due to demands from multiple 'big players,' or that NATO members were pooping their pants when it came to arming Ukraine (because 'W-we don't want to anger Russia... '). But now, with Russians fighting back against the sanctions and threatening nuclear solutions, the fear is starting to prevail over the solidarity.

Unfortunately, it's a waiting game, and regardless of the fairytale some western media are trying to sell, time doesn't appear to be on our side

Wanted to add that I'm also really confused on what Russia hopes to achieve long-term. [...]

Some say he has a dream to restore the USSR. Others say that Russia really fears Ukraine joining NATO. Yet others claim that large deposits of gas and oil were discovered in the Donbas area, and it's a classic war for resources...

Unfortunately, no one, but Putin, knows that for sure, and it's unlikely he will share it...

Wanted to add that I'm also really confused on what Russia hopes to achieve long-term. Even if they conquer the entire country... then what? Ukranian rebels will keep killing their soldiers via guerilla warfare year after year. And it's not like a puppet government will ever become stable.

Take it from an American, taking over a nation and installing a puppet government doesn't ever stop rebels. Otherwise Iraq and Afghanistan would be beacons of peace right now

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I actually disagree about Article 5. Sure, if Polish and Russian troops just get into a border skirmish, I highly doubt the U.S. will intervene. I can't see the average American caring about that. Besides, nuclear nations like India and Pakistan get into little skirmishes all the time. If Russia launches a full invasion of Poland, though... then yeah, the average American will be scared of the Russians invading all of Euorpe and will want our government to intervene.

However, I'm betting my life that a full invasion by the Russians on NATO territory will never happen. Since it's not like I'll be alive if that happens and things inevitably get nuclear

Well, at least now my pessimism has bases in reality, so there is that

On the bright side, Ukraine is doing better than everyone expected, and the Russians seem to be a paper tiger (other than the nukes obviously). Some of the combat footage has been downright hilarious regarding how bad Russia is doing considering their size. Also, Putin has singlehandedly made NATO relevant again and created a greater unity between the nations. I definitely sense a greater camaraderie in the U.S. when Americans talk about nations like Poland.

However, I do wish this could've been prevented and that Russia could've joined the West somehow after the fall of the USSR.