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New year, and we keep trucking along. We had a significant number of promotions this last quarter: six tags made it over the 100 hurdle and eight broke past the 10 mark. Also there was a significant uptick in overall stories. Last year was an upwards trend in overall numbers (937 to 1139 to 1239 to 1274) but this quarter saw an even bigger jump - a 12% increase over the prior quarter and a 53% increase over the same time last year.
As always, numbers are from here.
Poor Scorpan! Hang in there
How telling is it that it took six years for a second character from the 2017 movie to get 100 tagged stories? Other than Tempest and facilitating further Hippogriff characters in Season Eight, that flick just had almost no impact on the fandom.
And let's be honest, The Storm King is only out in front of those other seven due to his connection, loose as it is, to Tempest. Thereby having him present out of necessity in some stories. Thus, fully half of his stories also tag her.
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I'm actually working on a little side project that makes this statement rather interesting.
It should be ready in a couple of days, so I'll follow this up then.
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Ooh, another stats blog from you, eh? I always enjoy those!
Ghost Mike pointed out to me (off-site) that this is really significant: it's a decade since we had a year-on-year increase in the story count. I haven't done any serious thinking about the reasons, but I'm glad to see it. Unlike member count (which we all know is massively inflated by bots) story count actually requires people to write fics.
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My January 1st (comparing 2023 and 2022 totals) and December 29th blogs (discussing stories de-listed from 2022) cover that a bit.
Thank you for keeping this updated, TCC56!
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So here's an interesting bit of data.
Q3 2017: 110,230
Q4 2017: 111,935 (+1705)
Q1 2018: 115,179 (+3244)
Q2 2018: 117,457 (+2278)
Q3 2018: 119,498 (+2041)
Q4 2018: 121,112 (+1614) (-6% versus prior year)
Q1 2019: 123,037 (+1925) (-31% versus prior year)
Q2 2019: 124,522 (+1485) (-35% versus prior year)
Q3 2019: 126,598 (+2076) (+1% versus prior year)
Q4 2019: 128,390 (+1792) (+11%)
Q1 2020: 130,485 (+2095) (+8%)
Q2 2020: 132,207 (+1722) (+16%)
Q3 2020: 134,166 (+1959) (-6%)
Q4 2020: 135,643 (+1477) (-18%)
Q1 2021: 137,534 (+1891) (-10%)
Q2 2021: 138,611 (+1077) (+38%)
Q3 2021: 139,909 (+1298) (-34%)
Q4 2021: 141,081 (+1172) (ESTIMATED)
Q1 2022: 142,254 (+1173) (ESTIMATED)
Q2 2022: 143,426 (+1172) (ESTIMATED)
Q3 2022: 144,599 (+1173) (ESTIMATED)
Q4 2022: 145,771 (+1172) (ESTIMATED)
Q1 2023: 146,708 (+937)
Q2 2023: 147,847 (+1139)
Q3 2023: 149,086 (+1239)
Q4 2023: 150,360 (+1274)
Q1 2024: 151,801 (+1441) (+57%)
While there's a year in there that's estimated (I can only guess, since we've just got the two bounds to work with), you can see the raw data and how yeah, while the 2017-2021 has higher overall numbers they were consistently slowing down as opposed to this year growing significantly.
Or to put it a more visual way:
Alright, that was shorter than expected.
So two things:
First, for the folks who track this stuff? Expect a big hiccup in next quarter's numbers. TheEvilCookie was the site's most prolific author, with nearly 500 stories to their name. After leaving the site back in early 2021, they returned two days ago with a new story. And then deleted nearly their entire catalogue, dropping to just 34 published works. 400-ish stories got dusted - almost month's worth of the entire site's combined output. We were at 151,801 stories on Monday; now we're at 151,493. Sooooo yeah.
The second part is the more interesting one: there's now a spreadsheet.
I took all of the complete listings that Impossible Numbers, CoffeeMinion, and myself did - from July 2017 until the most recent January 2024 - and put them together into a single Google Sheets file. You can now look at ALL of the compiled tallies across six and a half years, measured on a quarterly basis, across every tag. I even included a few rudimentary graphs on the other pages just as a demonstration! I plan on keeping this up in future reports, but it's done and I've error checked it (so at least any errors are from the reports and not my transcription) so have at it! All those of you who are stat-heads will probably be drooling over this. Feel free to clone it and tinker on your own, use it for reference, or so on.
The sheet is available here.
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Damn, thanks for doing this. I've been neglecting this thing, and it's kind of a shame I dropped off when I did.
Then again, I never thought to combine all this data into an overarching coherent analysis, so you have the advantage over me here.
Welcome to the 2nd quarter of 2024!
As predicted and mentioned previously, TheEvilCookie doing a story purge had a massive impact on numbers this quarter. Last quarter we saw a rise in total stories both year over year and quarter over quarter; this time we have almost literally half the rise of total stories - +745 versus last quarter's +1441. It's the lowest number we've had since we started tracking and by a significant margin. (Lowest previous was +937.) There's also a ton of impacts across individuals: Twilight Sparkle is only +8 this quarter versus her usual +200 or +300. Several others had their growth crippled - some even lost significantly. Normally a character being -1 or -2 is a rare occurrence that reflects being obscure or generally ignored. Pinkie Pie is -33, Sweetie Belle is -30, and Rarity is -98. It's absolutely unprecedented. We also had two demotions (Storm King and Potion Nova), which is also extremely unusual.
There are some bright spots, though: the Crystal family had massive gains, mostly on the back of the Shining Armor is a Terrible Dad contest. Shining's double his normal gain and Flurry's triple. We also see the introduction of three new tags: Rain Shine, Violette Rainbow, and Allura. (We also have an Abacus Cinch tag, but that's a duplicate to the existing Principal Cinch so I expect it's in error and will be removed.)
Also, I had a brainstorm last night. Through the magic of archive.org, I managed to retrieve and fill in the gaps we were missing in the late 2021-late 2022 time period. We're still missing the total stories (the numbers I got make no sense - they're off by 20-40k from where they should be), but all other tags have been filled in on the big spreadsheet. (I also added highlights to mark when each tag passed the 100 mark, because why not?)
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Thank you!