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Holy


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Mar
16th
2020

Coronavirus Crisis - Everything You Should Know · 8:30pm March 16th

At this point we've all been affected in some way by this virus. The W.H.O. (World Health Organization) has recently declared this a pandemic, so it's time to start taking it seriously. In this blog I'm going to give you all the facts you need to know (with sources) so you can know what we're all up against and how to fight it.

Right now, millions, if not billions of people are home from school, out of work, and some under outright quarantine just to prevent SARS-COV-2 from spreading. As of right now there are hundreds of thousands of confirmed cases, thousands of deaths, and if not stopped the case numbers may very well be in the millions within two weeks. This virus has spread to almost every single country on the planet and has caused states of emergency all across the globe. If you haven't been paying attention to this or taking it all that seriously, now is the time to prepare yourself and hopefully I can help with the information in this blog.

I know I'm not exactly the person you'd expect this from, nor is this the place you'd want to or expect to see this, but I've done a lot of research on this topic trying to make sure I'm as informed as possible, and to make sure you guys are as well I'd like to share what we know so far with you. Right now misinformation that downplays the severity of this outbreak can lead to unnecessary spreading and countless lives needlessly lost, and likely has already on an unfortunately large scale. A lot of this information will be very worrying, but right now you really do need to be worried and alert so we can all do our best to make sure we flatten this pandemic's infection curve. I've been following this thing extremely closely since the end of January before it even really left China and there is a lot I think you you deserve to be aware of, so let's just get into the information.

Just what the Hell is this thing?

The 2020 Coronavirus outbreak is a viral strain similar to the SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) outbreak of 2003 and the MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) outbreak of 2012. While the virus we're facing now (SARS-COV-2) is in the same family as these two, it is very different and right now it is much more dangerous.

A lot of people have compared this to the flu, trying to state there's no need to be alarmed because the flu is somehow much worse. These people are completely wrong. This virus has a serious complication rate (that means serious enough to need hospitalization) of almost 20%. With the flu that number is 1%. The case fatality rate of the flu is 0.1%, with COVID-19 that number is still up in the air as the disease progresses, but current estimates have been as low as 2.3% and as high as 18% in some areas, though the WHO estimate currently sits at 3.4%.

This is why the misinformation people are spreading is so dangerous. The flu has an R0 (the rate at which an infected person will spread the disease to others who are not immune) of 1.3. This coronavirus has an R0 of up to 6.49 in some studies, though the average currently sits at 3.28.

So to sum that all up, do not believe people that are telling you the flu is worse. COVID-19 has a R0 up to 5 times as infectious as the flu, a death rate 34 times higher than the flu, and a serious complication rate 20 times higher than the flu. Do not go about your daily life thinking that you'll be fine if you catch it and just need to work through it like you would the flu. You're putting your life and everyone else's life that you come in contact with at risk because you bought into the lie that this wasn't nearly as bad as the seasonal flu.

And just to clear it up, COVID-19 refers to the disease the virus causes, the specific viral strain is named SARS-COV-2.

So how does this thing actually spread?

Once someone has contracted the virus, it reproduces in the lungs and almost immediately causes viral shedding. These newly produced viruses end up spreading through respiratory droplets that get ejected during coughing or sneezing or even regular breathing and talking. Once the virus has proliferated throughout the body, viral RNA can also be found in their feces. The reason this disease spreads so rapidly is that you can also be infectious when you don't have any symptoms at all, so it has a chance to jump rapidly before anyone even knows they have it.[1][2][3][4] That asymptomatic spreading period can also be anywhere from 6-41 days, with a median of two whole weeks.

This isn't the end of it either. Respiratory droplets are really only dangerous for a short time as they don't stay in the air for long, however, the virus can also stay alive on surfaces for an extended period of time. On surfaces like paper or cardboard, it's been found that the virus can exist for up to 9 days, still ready to be infectious when it finds a viable host. In animal coronavirus strains, this can be up to 28 days in some cases, so it's better to be safe than sorry here.

So to sum it up, you can catch it from the air via the breath of someone infected and you can also catch it from a surface that hasn't been disinfected. If you're not in close contact with others, you'll be much more likely to pick it up by touching something with the virus on it and letting that unwashed hand touch an area where it can enter your body (eyes, mouth, nose).

Who is really at risk anyway?

It's typically common knowledge that older people are more susceptible to disease. If you do a google search on the hardest hit demographics, right now the case fatality rate will be highest among the over 80 population at 14% and the 70-79 demographic at 8%. You might conclude from this that you're not really at risk if you're younger, but that mindset can be deadly for not just you, but everyone you have contact with. A report out of the Netherlands says that half of all patients in the ICU are under 50 . The youngest post-pubescent death that I've seen is a 23 year old female athlete in Iran . As far as I know, she had no underlying health conditions and was very healthy because of her professional athletic career. Also in the Netherlands, a 16 year old boy is the youngest I know that has needed to be intubated (mechanical assistance with breathing because of respiratory failure).

Being younger means your immune system is better-equipped to fight disease, yes, however as we can see it is not a guarantee that you won't end up in critical condition. As cases fill up hospitals and the medical system becomes overloaded, those who might've survived through the critical stages on intubation will die once those resources have been exhuasted, and even if you are lucky enough to end up in a hospital that can treat you in the coming months, there is evidence out of Hong Kong that shows patients recovered can end up losing up to 30% of their lung functionality, leaving them gasping even on brisk walks.On top of all this, even if you get over the disease there is a risk of reinfection that can become even more fatal the second time around.

So to sum up, you're not necessarily safe just because you're younger. While the current CFR (case fatality rate) for younger individuals rests at 0.2%, these numbers may not be completely accurate since they include official Chinese numbers. Do not give yourself some false confidence that you'll be fine if you potentially expose yourself. While you do have a much better chance of surviving if you're under 40, you may still end up with permanent lung damage, and will risk the lives of everyone else around you that may not be able to handle this as well. Just do not take any unnecessary risks.

If you are younger, it's worth remembering that anyone with heart disease, obesity, asthma, bronchitis, diabetes, and a number of other underlying health issues in individuals of any age drastically increase the severity of COVID-19, so remember, even if you don't feel the worst of it, you can easily spread it to those who will. I've seen people still going to restaurants, movie theaters, and packed bars thinking nothing is wrong even just this week. The best course of action here is to treat it like you would a gun, assume it's always loaded and with the virus assume every chance you could get it, you probably will. Flattening the epidemic curve is something we can all do to prevent this from getting worse.

UPDATE

Children are now confirmed to be at risk for organ failure as well. The youngest death is now a 14 year old boy in China.

CDC Data on Hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and case fatality rates by age group:

Half of patients admitted to the ICU in the US are under 65.


Okay, I'm taking this seriously now. How would it affect me if I do get it?

Your first symptoms will most likely be fever and coughing. This will be followed by fatigue, runny nose, and a sore throat in the intial stages. These symptoms will be similar to the flu or a cold, and you should not panic if you develop these as you might not actually have COVID-19, these are just potential warning signs to watch out for. If you end up developing dyspnea (shortness of breath) in regular activities or at rest, persistent pain or pressure in your chest, arrhythmia (irregular heartbeat), or a slight blue tint to your lips or face, that's when you know you should go to the hospital immediately. If you notice these symptoms, in a matter of 8 days you could end up in ARDS (Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome) and require serious medical intervention, and without it you could end up with fatal complications.

Most of you reading this will be young and healthy, most likely. If you experience severe flu-like symptoms stronger than previous illnesses you've had, it would be smart to get this checked out and wear a mask to make sure you infect as few people as possible. You will be given a few medications and in all likelihood will make a full recovery if you don't fall into the severe complications that 20% of cases have. However you have to do everything you can to prevent catching it and if you do, prevent further spread. As I said, even if you do get through it you can infect people that might not and possibly get it a second time that will end up worse, so please do your best to take this seriously—this is currently a global crisis and if we don't do the most we can to stop the spread this disease could kill millions.

UPDATE

17-29% of COVID-19 patients that end up in the hospital develop ARDS. Those patients can be on a ventilator for up to two weeks. This extended time on a ventilator causes damage to the vocal cords, which causes long-term damage to speaking and swallowing abilities. 70-100% of those who don't die on the ventilator suffer from cognitive impairment that can last up to 5 years after hospitalization. After taken off the ventilator, a study suggests that patients still have a 30% chance of dying within the next month regardless. You DO NOT want to risk getting this thing. You're rolling the dice on making your quality of life astronomically worse every time you expose yourself.

Yeah that sounds pretty intense, so how do I avoid catching this?

The absolute best way you can avoid getting this disease is social distancing. Stay home as much as possible. Keep away from other people as much as possible. Limit your contact with the outside world as much as possible. With the extremely high R0, you're taking a massive risk with every individual you decide to have contact with. If you absolutely must have close contact with someone, be sure to stay at least six feet away from them at all times if they're not wearing a mask. I know it sucks, but it would be smart right now to cancel any events or vacations you have planned and eliminate any non-essential trips outside of your house. Every single time you leave your door you're exposing yourself. Minimize that as much as humanly possible.

If you absolutely must go out, the best protection you can get are disposable gloves and a respirator. Despite what some officials might say, blocking the path in to your respiratory system is the best way to keep the virus at bay. If you go outside of your home make sure to also wash your hands thoroughly with soap for at least 20 seconds each time. Do this often any time you come into contact with any object outside of your house. Disinfect surfaces that have had contact with outside objects with standard disinfectants. Do not share food or drink with anyone, even family. I know a large amount of you have probably never even thought about doing this, but wipe down your phone, keys, wallet, whatever you touch often and put away—I promise you even if you do wash your hands you'll get it just because you contaminated your phone before you did and will just pick it up again once you touch it. Also try to disinfect door knobs and hand rails in your house, then every single time you come back into your home wash your hands before you touch anything.

Overall, avoid touching your face with unwashed hands at all costs. This is going to be the main way the virus will make its way into your system. Just try to make a habit of wiping your nose with a tissue instead of your hand, and if you have an itch either ignore it or use a surface you know hasn't been in contact with outside objects. If you're hoping for a vaccine so you don't have to worry about any of this, currently the soonest any team could produce a vaccine is early 2021, so this is not something you should expect to rely on in this stage.

Good hygiene practices and social distancing are your best friends during this pandemic and just might save your life or the life of a loved one, so do your best to make sure to implement these strategies into your daily life during this pandemic.

Also, please do not listen to holistic, alternative, or home-remedy advice on the internet about ginger or garlic or alcohol or whatever killing the virus—you could end up unnecessarily infecting people with the false confidence at best or seriously injure yourself at worst. As they say, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure and that's especially true in this case.

Is there anything else I need to worry about?

Yes. Almost as dangerous as the virus will be the economic fallout from all of this. China has made up almost 30% of global manufacturing and a massive portion of medical production. The world has already experienced huge impacts in their supply chains that could affect every person not completely self-reliant. I won't go into the specifics of the complete economic impact, but if things worsen from here it could affect a lot more than the people glued to the stock market.

The CDC recommends stocking up for at least two weeks in the case of crisis, but right now it would be smart to have at least a 30 day supply of food on hand in case you get put in quarantine. While it's unlikely in the US that you'll be left to starve, you also should never put your life completely in the government's hands for these things. I don't recommend panic buying, obviously, but the next time you go out to get food just spend more than you usually would to make sure you don't have to go out as much over the coming weeks.

If your place of work is shutting down, you also need to limit your unnecessary purchases to make sure you have at least three months of funds to cover your expenses. Right now it is a little too late to really gather that all up, but do whatever you can as it's very likely much of the world will be completely shut down until this dies down. Most schools have shut down for the rest of the semester and some institutions are planning to stay closed until September, so do your best to plan accordingly and be prepared to spend most of this time at home.

Conclusion:

I know I'm but a humble Sunset writer and this isn't exactly what you want to see from me or maybe not on Fimfiction at all, but I spent a few hours gathering this information to make sure all of you could be as informed and prepared for what might come as possible. The only way we can prevent this from becoming a global disaster is to be as vigilant as possible in preventing infection and spreading, so I hope this can at least help someone realize how serious this is and possibly save a life by being better-informed.

As this disease is ongoing, a lot of the information I've posted may become outdated in the future. Most of the data is coming out of Communist China, a country notorious for human rights violations and lying about numerous important statistics that may end up making their government look bad. Be prepared for anything and please do not take any unnecessary chances before we fully know what we're up against. If there are any serious updates you think people should be aware of, let me know in the comments and I'll see about updating this blog.

I know all this information can be scary, but it's something everyone should know as this crisis unfolds. Don't let your anxiety get the better of you and please don't panic, just be alert and prepared for whatever might happen. Feel free to share this blog so everyone can be informed.

Be safe and be vigilant. We can still minimize the impact of this through our personal actions. Thank you for reading.


Useful resources:

Infection map and current numbers:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Wikipedia articles:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019

Harvard resources:

https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/coronavirus-resource-center

New England Journal of Medicine Updates:

https://www.nejm.org/coronavirus

Report Holy · 991 views · #coronavirus #covid-19 #pandemic
Comments ( 51 )

Wishing you the best of luck from South Korea! The spread of the disease is slowly tapering off here as the number of newly infected patients per day has finally dropped below 100 three days ago. We're still on high alert though, as all schools in the country have postponed the start of the semester to the 23rd, with a high chance of getting postponed once more to the 6th of April. I'm not complaining; the more people there are in one place, the higher the risks.

Once again, I wish you the best of luck. Stay strong, stay healthy! Oh, and thanks for compiling all the useful information into one blog! Can't thank you enough for that!

This is actually the most helpful compilation of resources and info I’ve read on the subject. Would you mind if I gave this blog a boost and linked it around?

Thanks for the important information.

That was quite helpful, thanks

Thank you very much for these resources.

Not a bad synopsis. Unfortunately it looks like things are going to get a lot worse before it gets better. To be blunt, globally and country by country, there flat out isn’t the capability for healthcare en mass that will be needed. The supplies, personnel, even man hours aren’t there.

NY state has hit 80%+ of capacity already. Washington is anticipating a minimum of 25,000 infected by April 7th if memory serves.

Either things get shut down hard and fast like they have been to try to burn this out, or statistically the death toll in the US alone will be insane. The math I did last night ballparked (depending on different variables and based off the Goldman Sachs prediction of 50% population saturation) we’re looking at between 7 and 14 million deaths in the US alone. That’s not counting comorbidities, people dying due to other things, deaths from lack of supply or treatment, etc. That’s simply just the number based on fatalities and infections.

It’s going to get bad, and unfortunately the extreme percentage of my immediate and extended family are in the high risk or location groups. Family tree is statistically likely to get pruned pretty harshly.

Holy #7 · March 16th · · ·

5221684
Absolutely, spread it around as much as you'd like. I wrote it to be able to inform as many people about the truth as possible, so you'd be helping me out by showing it to others.

Btw, there are several (5 or 6 last I checked) research papers awaiting peer review that discuss droplet and particulate tendencies, environmental, etc. Across the few I’ve read, it seems there is fairly strong evidence that while it isn’t truly ‘airborne’ it is pretty darn close.

I haven’t seen any comparisons of the original virus and new sequences, but I am curious if there was a noticeable mutation somewhere, because the R0 will be a lot higher if those papers are right.

Honestly, I’d very happily and hopefully will be wrong.

Thank you for taking the time to share this information. Wishing you and yours best of health in these trying times. I just had a meeting at work today, and we will be taking as many precautions as we can and still giving people hours, bills and stuff won't pay themselves. A lot of community events have been canceled, and places like the library are closed until the end of the month at least. Would it be okay if I shared your post on my social media?

5221702
Sure, if you'd like.

I’m not gonna worry about this

Thank you for your information, I found this very helpful. I will also reblog it.

Here is a video of how to wash your hands properly for those who don't know.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tIwdf3WKe3Y&t=185s

So to sum it up, you can catch it from the air via the breath of someone infected and you can also catch it from a surface that hasn't been disinfected. If you're not in close contact with others, you'll be much more likely to pick it up by touching something with the virus on it and letting that unwashed hand touch an area where it can enter your body (eyes, mouth, nose).

*closes eyes, closes mouth, stops breathing*

Thank you very much, Holy.

5221705
Thank you. I just shared your thoughts with my mom who was a nurse for twenty or thirty some years, and she agreed with most everything you said.

(Deep breaths) Keep calm just keep your body healthy and at a relative distance and you’ll be-

(Breaks down) AHHH!

Disinformation can be almost as bad as the virus itself, and far more easily transmitted. Thanks for working to set the record straight.

5221707
The correct response is not to not worry, it's don't panic. Your food comes in cardboard boxes stocked by people who may very well be carriers. Wash your hands before eating after you've handled pretty much anything at this point. Don't touch your face, stay away from crowds, and take other basic precautions you would for a cold to avoid spreading it to others.

Thanks for all the info. I knew it was worse than the regular flu, but I didn't realize it was that much worse. I live in a fairly small town and rarely leave the house, so I'm not incredibly worried about catching it. Still, I'll be more careful. Hopefully I don't get an infected Amazon package or something.

5221788
Yeah, deal with this at my job that i have to clean stuff daily. Part of my job description

I take public transit, so I'm probably going to get it at some point :(

Thanks for the information, Holy.

Thanks for collecting all of this. Also - perfect Sunny pic at the top. :)

Yeah I heard of this.
They even shut down some of the school systems including mine.

We're already in lockdown on campus. I'm only leaving my dorm when I absolutely have to.

Well, damn, this is a little more severe than I thought.

Thank you for updating us about the virus Holy. If only our modern society would stop thinking that buying toilet paper will help prevent the virus xD

I live in California in the heart of where the coronavirus initially started spreading. I've been trying to get sick for months now, but my dang immune system went to super saiyan 3 and is preventing me from basically every disease imaginable. Now I just have to sit here while the grocery stores get raided and my stonks go down. :fluttershysad:

Well I'm a machine so I can't be affected but my systems​ are overloaded due to the emergency​ systems​, but I wouldn't buy tp or handsitize and sell it for a higher price.
God help us.
God help us.

I fear death so this whole thing dose scare me alot I don't want to leave the house but parents do make me when I have to help them.

actually, looking into it (I know one of those theee sources is snopes but they cited their sources, taking from multiple ones), risk of reinfection isn't likely. There has not been an official study on it yet, and the theory your source is working with is purely speculation. While it isnt impossible, most likely what's happening is the tests are giving false negatives (as your source, among others, say can happen) and people are being released from care too early.

All these just highlights to me how much it sucks to work at a supermarket right now. The damn things wouldn’t close if the goddamn apocalypse was upon us.

5221790
Then you are in a rare position of being prepared already. Just keep doing what you do, but also take precautions at home for yourself.

Thank you for this. It's a relief to know that there's nothing to be concerned about, and that we just need to wait.

5221905
I wouldn't really take the word these links as any sort of fact just yet. Reading through them they're all just conjecture by people unsure of what's actually happening right now. Reinfection from a second exposure to a virus has already been proven to exist with other strains in under half of those re-exposed, so it's not as unlikely as I'm sure a lot of officials would like to say.

The claim of a reinfection and even more grim prognosis came from doctors at the epicenter of the original outbreak. While I'm not going to declare those saying differently in your Snopes article absolutely wrong, listening to the healthcare workers that have been dealing with this the longest will be our safest bet as they have the most experience watching cases unfold over longer periods. It's also unlikely that these people released after recovering are just being released too early, as rueters has reported that many patients are being released once they exhibit no symptoms, test negative, and have no abnormalities on X-rays, yet still get readmitted weeks afterwards with a positive test. There is a major problem with Chinese numbers so unfortunately we really can't say anything for absolute certain until we get long-term results in more transparent countries, but like I said in the blog, we need to treat this like a loaded gun.

Sure, I haven't seen any studies directly proving it yet, but the fact that 14% of patients currently recorded have tested positive again, often weeks after recovery, don't point to this being just false negatives on the tests. 14% ending up positive again is not an insignificant amount, and absolutely should not be written off in a margin of error. Right now these reinfections are either biphasic (the virus has two phases and the second one becomes much worse), or the bodies of these peoples were unable to properly make antibodies and were susceptible to a second infection by the virus. Considering that re-emergence would probably be a major part of the disease's course in most patients, the lack of evidence for that would lead me to speculate it's likely the latter.

Believing experts that are just speculating that it might not be as bad may pose a risk down the line when they possibly end up wrong. The absolute safest course of action right now is to assume that you can get it a second time and act accordingly to avoid that possibility at all costs. If you wait for dozens of studies definitively proving something in an outbreak like this before you act accordingly, it may be much too late by that time. We've already lost a lot of ground to this disease while the argument over asymptomatic spreaders was being settled. Micheal J. Ryan put this concept into perspective better than I could in the recent WHO update: (Start at 29:10 if the timestamp doesn't work)

Thank you for taking the time to inform us about this, Holy. We are glad that you decided to post this, at least I am, as I didn't know a lot of what you said, and you also made me take some things I already knew more seriously. Sincerely hoping this can be dealt with somewhat pretty soon. :applejackunsure:

It's great to inform yourself about this. But the most important thing is to KEEP informing yourself! Most information available now is conjecture and it'll continue to change literally every day. That being said, use basic common sense, play it safe, and you should be fine.

5221935
The first two articles both pull from the same source - one source - regarding the possibility of reinfection, while the Reuters one said *in that article* that there was a good chance they had only tested part of the respiratory system, and that the problem may lie with the test, not the virus. There isn't enough proof at all to say that it's fact. We are still learning about the virus itself and how it acts, and while it shares the family with the common cold, that does not mean it will act the same way.
It isn't the common cold, though. I can also say that each cold is very different, like your source says. "So, while infection with a cold virus can protect against reinfection with that same virus, the existence of hundreds of different types of cold viruses means that we will always be susceptible to catching colds." Some colds (of the few strains tested back in the 50s and 60s, studies of which I will read since our knowledge of how to deal with viruses has grown since then) act differently than others, and just like SARS and others of the coronavirus family does not share all the traits of COVID-19, I cannot say for sure one way or the other whether or not COVID-19 will act like a few strains of the common cold. So you really shouldn't, either.
I didnt say we needed tons of studies. One or two would be useful before you make claims (supported by one source, and some sources quoting that one source) to spread even *more* panic. Some people are not taking it seriously and that is a problem, but many people are panicking like it's the end of the world. Because it may be. But you aren't helping those that are actually worried.
(The timestamp didnt work on the video, perhaps because it was embedded, I don't know.)

Ginger ale will save me

5221988
Not sure if you really read what I posted all that carefully. The first article proves that viral reinfection is entirely possible and it's from two years before COVID-19 started. The type of strain doesn't matter here, as this was meant to prove that reinfection is entirely possible in a statistically significant amount of people, and focusing in on the fact that it was a strain that caused the cold isn't really relevant at all.

You should also reread the reuters article instead of cherry-picking what you want to hear out of it.

On Wednesday, the Osaka prefectural government in Japan said a woman working as a tour-bus guide had tested positive for the coronavirus for a second time. This followed reports in China that discharged patients throughout the country were testing positive after their release from the hospital.
...
On Feb. 21, a discharged patient in the southwestern Chinese city of Chengdu was readmitted 10 days after being discharged when a follow-up test came back positive.
...
The woman first tested positive in late January and was discharged from the hospital on Feb. 1, leading some experts to speculate that it was biphasic, like anthrax.
...
Song Tie, vice director of the local disease control center in southern China’s Guangdong province, told a media briefing on Wednesday that as many as 14% of discharged patients in the province have tested positive again and had returned to hospitals for observation.
...
Allen Cheng, professor of infectious diseases epidemiology at Monash University in Melbourne, said it wasn’t clear whether the patients were re-infected or had remained “persistently positive” after their symptoms disappeared. But he said the details of the Japan case suggested the patient had been reinfected.
...
Other experts have also raised the possibility of “antibody-dependent enhancement”, which means exposure to viruses might make patients more at risk of further infections and worse symptoms.
...
China has so far discharged 36,117 patients, according to data from the National Health Commission released on Friday, which represents almost 46% of the total cases on the Chinese mainland. If the 14% rate of reinfection is accurate and remains consistent, it could pose a wider health risk.

“I would say that it is less about if it is possible that re-infection can occur than how often it occurs,” Cheng said.

Also the Taiwannews article and the reuters article are accounts from two different sources, not one. The former is from two anonymous Doctors out of Hubei and the above statements were made by Allen Cheng, a professor at Monash University in Melbourne, and Song Tie, a disease control director from China. In this case testing flaws are obviously not accounting for the complete reinfection rate like you claim. Again, this is 14% of patients showing up to the hospital again weeks after they initially recovered. This rules out them simply being released too early and points to complications of the same disease after an initial recovery.

And I haven't made any claims, I'm merely echoing what these experts are saying is happening with the patients they've dealt with. Trying to say that reinfection is unlikely and shouldn't be something to worry about now, considering a massive 14% rate of a second infection is disingenuous and honestly downright dangerous at this point. People need to know these potential risks, and just like the asymptomatic spreaders that later turned out to be true after we had initial reports of it, right now we have the initial reports of reinfection. We need to consider this true until proven otherwise because the alternative will cost lives. In the face of potentially deadly negligence of waiting to hear even more about it, people being slightly more worried will be a very small price to pay. I don't really feel like going on all night with you over every little point and I think I've provided enough information to show why it's necessary to tell everyone about these reports, so this is going to be the last time it's brought up.

As an immunocompromised person, I love this most aggressively. Thank you THANK you for posting it. People being smart and keeping healthy and safe helps those like me stay alive.

5221924
I do trust me on that
I just think all the panicking is a bit ridiculous with everyone trying to get all the toilet paper and stuff

5221852
You may have your campus locked down, Pennsylvania basically banned public events. All state run offices and most public places are closed. The only things staying open are hospitals, restaurants, and even then they recommend take out, my sister's college basically said "Get your stuff off our property and every class will be online.", and grocery stores.

Approved. This is all solid, accurate information.

I would suggest to most people in the US or Europe that any event/work/job/school through September is likely to be canceled. That's my opinion of where this is going.

5222556
I've been ordered to leave now.

..wanted to say thanks for detailed post. Sorry, hardly have much more to say right now.

Your post is pretty great.
I learned some new things reading, which is always welcome. For example that there is a possibility of getting a permanent damage lung. Keep up your research. 

The consequences of the virus can be definitely filled in Germany (The place I live). It is mindboggling now fast many things change, especially in the last 7 days. 
I would also encourage to minimize social interactions. My local MLP meetup still happened on Saturday and I am glad that I did not go there. Because now two of the 15 attendees are now in quarantine. (Both are all right and it is unsure if there are infected)

Stany healthy everyone.
bit.ly/2wi474I

That's all really well put together Holy. Thank you for doing this and giving links to everything!!!

Hope we all stay healthy and safe

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