The moon shone outside the open sides of the throne room as the door pushed open and I looked away from my conversation with Luna, “Yes Flower?”
“Princess Midnight would like to speak with you, your majesty,” Flower said a bit nervously.
Luna looked at me, “I’ll be back later,” she said and brushed her wing against mine, “I should patrol tonight's dreams.”
I nodded, “Okay. See you for lunch?”
“Of course, My Page,” Luna said with a small smile, “And…”
“I know,” I said, giving her a small reassuring smile back.
Luna gave me a small kiss before she turned and walked to take wing out into the night. We had only a couple nights more before she left for Canterlot so as much as I hated to spend unnecessary time away from her, this was necessary.
I needed to speak to Midnight.
“Send her in, please Flower. And if we could get some ice tea, that would be nice. Lemon if possible?”
Flower smiled and nodded, “I’ll arrange some,” she said and gave a small bow before ducking out, closing the door behind her.
Sighing softly, I walked out onto the balcony to look out over the village below. Market day today and the square usually used for announcements and speeches below were full with stalls set up.
Unusually lit up too, both torches and light crystals.
Things looked busy today, but then again several local fruits just came into season and I took in the scent of grilled meat. Somepony down there were cooking something.
And it smelled amazing. Some ponies really threw themselves into the existence of brand new ingredients. Admittedly, a lot of the cooking and spices right now were leaning heavily on griffin cooking, especially when it came to meats.
The door opened behind me before closing again. I turned one ear to track the approaching hoofsteps but I didn’t bother looking back.
“Page?”
“Midnight,” I said and looked at her when she walked up to stand next to me.
She looked away before she turned to me, “Page, I-I’m sorry.”
I met her eyes for a second before I nodded, “I know,” I said and sighed, “I just wish you would have told me.”
“I…” Midnight started to say before she sighed and nodded.
Shaking my head, I then turned to her, “Midnight, I’m not going to pretend that I wouldn’t have been tempted to go. If you say the odds were low, I trust that they were low. But with the possible consequences, I would not been able to do it. I like to think so at least.”
Midnight didn’t say anything, she just met my eyes for several moments before looking down.
“I won’t apologize for being angry with you,” I told her gently but firmly, “But I do apologize for screaming at you.”
“Don’t,” Midnight said gently before she looked at me again, “You were right to. You had all right to.”
I looked at her for a moment before I sighed and put my hoof on her shoulder, “...How are you doing, Midnight?”
She shook her head, “...Tempest refuses to talk to me. Talon is even angrier than you were, he almost set my mane on fire. Luna wants me to come with her back to Canterlot when she leaves.”
“Do you want to go?”
Midnight looked at me in surprise, “What do you mean?”
“Do you want to go to Canterlot?” I asked seriously, “Because if you want to stay, I will talk to Luna.”
Midnight sniffed, staring at me for several moments before she answered, “I…” she started to say before she shook her head with a small sigh, “...There are moments where I understand Twilight…” she said before she trailed off and shook her head firmer and met my eyes, “No,” she then said, “No, I will go to Canterlot. I need to talk to Princess Celestia. And… and it may be for the best if I stay away for a little bit.”
“I understand,” I said and let my hoof drop, “Well… whenever you decide you want to come back, there will always be a spot for you in Nocturnis.”
She brushed her hoof past her eyes and shook her head before she pulled me into a hug. I hugged her back tightly, “It’ll be alright, Midnight. Just take what time you need,” I said before I pulled back to look at her, “...And give Tempest and Talon some time. They love you, they’ll come around.”
Midnight sighed softly and slowly let go, “Take care of them, Page. I may be gone for a while, I’m going to really need to think through some things.”
“Of course,” I said as I nodded, giving her a small smile, “Just make sure you come back to us at some point, Midnight. We need you.”
She smiled back a bit weakly, “That’s… one of the things I need to think about, Page. I might not belong here.”
I nodded and touched her chest with my hoof, “Take all the time you need,” I told her gently.
Midnight sniffed and rubbed across her eyes again before she looked at me, “...You said I might regret it if I came back here.”
“Wasn’t really what I had in mind,” I admitted with a small sad smile, “Regretting it?”
She was silent for several long moments, looking out over the village and its shimmering lights before she shook her head, turning back to me, “Yes… and no. Coming back… no. The way we did it? Yes. Even though it may have been the only way.”
“The only way?” I asked, “Or the only way without years having passed?”
Midnight wouldn’t meet my eyes.
great chapter
Nice
Midnight was the hero here. She knows what years of being stranded can cause.
The about the Crystsl Castle for Nocturnis...
So... About Bat-tastic Foals...
About Mirror Equestria, a Plaotop and a solar modul because music is awesone.
What about the anatomical correct Statue in the forest - , -
Page: "So Talon... Since your Midnight is away... Party hard on the double,with your filly friend?"
Discord and Cadance: "We are so proud of you!"
Talon: "O yeah... Also thanks!"
D&C: We actually mean Page shipping, but sure- go for it/her "
Page: "Nooo... They get me shipping ...
Ok, Glimmer is next "
D&C:
...MEANWHILE IN CRYSTAL EMPIRE...
Discord: *rushes out of the wormhole* Emergency! EMERGENCY!
Cadance: Yes. I saw it too on my crystal ball. Wow..I wasn't expecting for Midnight and Tempest falling out that hard. Buck! I have zero plans for this!
Sunburst: We don't even know if she's going to come back to Nocturnis. Maybe we should plan possible rebound ponies within Canterlot? Moondancer or maybe a royal guard?
Cadance: No no. Still too early to do that. Her mental health needs stability first. Midnight needs something to focus on. A purpose!
Discord: WAIT! I have an idea. FETCH ME A QUILL! I saw it in another universe but it might be crazy enough to work!
...MEANWHILE ON THE AIRSHIP TO CANTERLOT...
Midnight: OW! Something fell on my head! Hmm...a book? "Friendship Schools and You"?
What would do more damage - them risking this small chance that there would be something bad or prolonging suffering of ponies in Nocturnis, suffering of his Luna, Twilight and Sunset, suffering of his Celestia, Midnight's Tempest, risking that other side would come to same spell and conclusion that risk that they first come to original world and then back with them three is worth that risk? Risking that after years neither of sides would come to more safe solution while damage of waiting would be done already?
I gotta side with page here. Yeah, I'd miss home too if I got yanked away, but things were at least stable in the other universe. If I was told "you can wait 5 years and go home, or go home now but there's a 2% chance you die", I'm gonna wait. It'd suck, but I'd wait.
What's worse, is that the Celestia, Luna, everypony in the other universe was in an equal amount of danger, and I bet Midnight told none of them about how risky it was, not even other Celestia.
Midnight still needs a hug though.
I imagine if midnight new exactly how starswirl made that mirror, she could find a 40 dollar bathroom mirror at pone depot and slap some coordinates in
11390566
Your calculations are wrong. Danger is not equal, waiting 5, 10 or even 50 years don't guarantee that there would be less danger, prolonged waiting have its cost and may even increase risk atop that.
11390513
he did say that, but he visited Chrysalis anyway. Him sucking it u and visiting Skitter would be a cool thing to see, if only once.
Thanks for chapter!
Have a good day!
Yea Midnight rushed things a bit and should have warned page.
I just hope she doesn't turn into a nightmare version of herself since most of the people ahe came back for hate her.
Midnight did nothing wrong, this is such a mess.
11390696
Nah, it was clear what she did wrong. And it makes sense the way Page, Tempest, and Talon in particular are angry. It’s not like she did something unforgivable.
If 2% is an acceptable probability for... annihilating a town, then how high does that number need to be before that decision is questionable?
11390793
"If 2% is an acceptable probability for... annihilating a town" - where did you got these percents?
11390897
Chapter 64:
Keep in mind that that's "nearly two percent" per individual (if I understood that correctly) so the actual odds would've been a fair bit higher.
11390911
So let's calculate if it is exactly 2% for each:
(1-(1-0,02)^3)*100%=5,9%
We have 5,9% that there would be something wrong.
Now, what chance that this something will be jump into wrong universe? No less than 80% Let's apply this speculative number.
5,9%*(1-0,8)=1,18% that there would be something wrong and it wouldn't be jump into wrong universe.
Let's imagine that there would be no other concequencesses than opening this feared gap.
What chance that this gap would be less than square meter in size? I'd bet more than 90%
Now we have 1,18%*(1-0,9)=0,12% that it would be gap more than square meter in size.
What chance that this not small gap would be big enough to consume whole building? Again, let's imagine 25%
Now we have 0,12%*0,25=0,03%
What chance that it would consume whole willage? Again, let's imagine 15%
Now we have 0,03%*0,15=0.0045%
This is how calculation works. So, again, where did (any of) you got 2% that whole town would be annihilated?
11390935
It’s a story, it adds drama
11390935
I think you got your numbers wrong there.
If a compont on a board has a 6% failure rate it does not decrease if you put it in 10 different identical machines. The failure rate remain the same in all of them.
What would decrease the % woukd be if they were put in different machines and they had different strain, usage time, usage environment, etc. Or in this case which world she teleported to.
Since the % for this world is 2 the failure rate would be 6% for additive and 8% for multiplicative. Which is way too high for anything.
Either way these kinds of things need to be clearly communicated and not jargon souped to the person not educated in the field.
11390961
It seems you misunderstood me. I've described distribution. We have roughly 6% that there would be something and then we distribute these 6 percents on what would actually happen with chance for each outcome. What we aim (destruction of whole town) is only one of those outcomes.
And no, you couldn't add those percents (If you try, you would have numbers of probability higher than 100%). Only multiply. And I gave formula: (1-(1-0,02)^3)*100%
This formula equals calculating summ of outcomes with 2% chance to fail: (first case failure, next two are success, 1.92%), (first success, second failure, third success, 1.92%), (first two success, third is failure, 1.92%), (first two are failures, third success, 0,04%), (first and third are failures, second success, 0,04%), (first sucess, second and third are failures, 0,04%), (all three are failures, 0.0008%)
11390953
Reminds me of joke, it's 50% that you will roll 6 on dice (win jackpot in lottery, plane will crash at you, etc) - you either do or not.
Sadly, too many people seriously think so, invoking Pascal's Wager in argument for their religion.
11391025
It just annoys me a little when people want to poke holes in fictional logic. Its a work of fiction and a story is that, a story meant to entertain people for the most part, and if the writer wants to use very loosely based material on relief life, then so be it, but that doesn't mean you have to have people poke holes in just because the math is incorrect. It's a story, fan fiction at that, of course, it's not going to add up. it is the principle of adding in realism that sells the concept.
11391049
Oh let them do their math. Discussing logistics is a common sight within the Pageverse comment section.
Even I have done it once or twice...and I hate doing math!
11391133
Well, some ponies don't understand numbers. This confusion and therefore overreaction is totally understandable for Talon and Tempest. I imagine Twilight and Midnight didn't bother to clarify since they think that this is obvious. But how Page don't know of Probability theory?
Well, yeah. If Alicorns are immortal, then eventually they’d have gotten back. But if everypony you were going back for is dead or very old then it is basically the only way. Unless you start playing with time travel as well as dimension jumping. Then you don’t need blackboards, you need supercomputers.
People and ponies risk a lot for love.
I’m glad Page was kind to Midnight and was willing to say something to Luna on her behalf.
This was a good chapter.
11391133yOU HAVE A POINT, MATH IS MATH and it has little power of Page and his girls
11391170
I think you’re looking at it backwards. You seem to think that based on the numbers, and some of your own reasoning, that the reaction was unacceptable. When really, the reactions are what suggests that Midnight’s decision was questionable.
And you didn’t answer my question. :P
What percentage chance is too high a risk when you could theoretically achieve 0% risk instead?
11391532
Everything have risk, even staying home. Don't forget that every minute that they are not home, is damage being stacked. Every day they aren't home is chance for another encounter where ponies could die that wouldn't die if Page and Midnight weren't absent. Every day that they aren't home their loved ones suffer. Right action would be balance potential damage. Evacuate town for a day and do it anyway.
11391555
Yes but as suggested they could evacuated the town or they could have gone where there were no people. . There is taking a chance and then there is being stupid. She in her hurry chose the latter .
11391688
Agreed. She was too hasty.
I'd also like to point out, that in terms of jumping worlds and realities, theoretically speaking, there will ALWAYS be some amount of unknown risk factor involved. So the math would be that "less than 2%" calculated known-risk PLUS the unknown one. There is absolutely no way to accurately judge just how much of the other reality's rules of physics and magic will match up with the world we or the characters are in. Different realities can have different LAWS of reality. They might have been trying to get back to a world that they DID know the rules and calculations for, but they also don't know if there was any other reality with different rules between the starting point and destination.
Interesting, I wonder where this will lead for the next story...
11391049
Be very careful with the 'it's just fantasy' argument. It's one that's very prone to logical fallacy. Fictional logic must still obey the setting in which it exists and so be internally consistent. This is why doing nitty gritty maths and even more obscure stuff like tectonic studies is worthwhile simply to build up and support that internal logic.
Grammar jackboots:
speeches below was full of stalls.
Somepony down there was cooking something.
You know, I just feel sorry for Midnight. Because it felt like in this story, almost everyone abandoned her. Not just after she returned, but the moment Starlight's recall spell went off and caught Page as well. The moment it was clear Page got dragged along, everyone put all the weight on Midnight to fix the problem.
Which itself is a problem, because Midnight is ultimately still a Twilight Sparkle, and Twilight Sparkle does not deal well with stress. Every time Twilight is convinced things all depended on her, she stresses, she flukes, she makes mistakes. Nightmare Moon, Discord, Chrysalis, Tirek, the Storm King, every time Twilight went at it with the intent on fixing it all by herself, she flounders and fails. It takes her friends tapping her on the head to remind her that she isn't alone in this and that she can rely on others. Sometimes it's the mane 6, sometimes it's Celestia, in the canon timeline around this point in time it would have been Starlight (School of Friendship, the Pony of Shadows) especially since it's a magical problem.
The Princess of Friendship needs her friends. Who'd have thought.
But in this case, nobody was there for her. Almost everyone was more concerned with convincing her to stay or occupied with their own little quests. Starlight, who would have been the pony to help Twilight in the canon timeline, is incapable of doing so in this alternate timeline, because she is still in the process of finding herself, and likely felt she had no right to criticize Twilight given that she was responsible for this situation in the first place.
So Twilight slogged on alone, with only Cadance providing some mental support to stop Twilight from collapsing entirely. She slogged on alone, without help, to find a solution. And when she did... people railed on her for it being the right one. They dumped all responsibility on her, and then turned away from her after she came up with the solution. And now she is in the one position she so desperately wanted to avoid: alone.
Being Midnight in Pageverse is suffering.
Poor Purple. Guess she were wrong calling the place her Home if they are willing to cut her off so easily. Perhaps the unstoppable tide of The Plot had to throw her away off screen to shape her up into a new villain or for a heroically heroic death. The separation drama must go on no matter what.
The whatever background baddie the show had to bring back when the writing was murdered in the last few seasons, Simmer Shimmer Starlight whatever, that one was on point. The 'canon' Starlight whatsherface.
Little psychopath would have definitely went with 6% deviation in the spell no questions asked.
A bit too late to come to that decision
11390994
Destruction of the whole town how? Do your numbers reflect the multitude of ways that a town can be destroyed and lives lost? Is there a difference between the percentage of plane crashes and the percentage of plane crashes due to structural failures or plane crashes due to engine failure or plane crashes due to control malfunctions?
The last time they attempted this it led to an eldrich abomination that was only forced back by Celestia going nuclear. If Celestia wasn't there I'm pretty sure that thing could have destroyed the town. Your calculations are the town is completely unharmed or the town is utterly destroyed with no in-between.
That's why everypony is upset. Too many variables to calculate how things could go catastrophically wrong.
Calculate this for me if you will. You have 100 glasses of water. Two are randomly filled with poison (2% of total glasses). If you drink the poison you die, there is no do-over. Each additional person (n = number of people) adds two glasses of poison (2%). If one person dies, all people die. That would be the chances of SOMETHING happening. Would you drink from one of the classes? Would you take that chance?