Mo' Money, Mo' Rocks, Maud Pie
So you're the hired hoof?
Hello. I'm Maud. Maud Pie. You're working with me today.
I know you. Pinkie told me.
What are we doing? We're farming inexplicablyvalumium.
Inexplicablyvalumium. It's a rare mineral. We can only find it in about 1% of the rocks on the farm.
We need to check all our fields for it.
It won't be as hard as you think. I have a secret weapon.
I have a special inexplicablyvalumium detector. It beeps when it finds any.
I worked on it for months.
Hmm? Oh, it's not that simple. It's not perfect.
About 10% of the time it'll beep, even when there is no inexplicablyvalumium.
But it's still reliable enough for us. Until I perfect it, anyway.
You'll get used to saying it. Now, when it beeps, load the rock into the cart and we'll take it back to the farm to be examined. Okay?
Good.
-
Thanks for all the work today. That's a big one.
...
...Say. Do you want it? I'll sell it to you.
How much? 20,000 bits.
A rock of inexplicablyvalumium that size can fetch 100,000 bits.
You'd be getting it for a fifth of the price.
Not bad, is it?
What do you say?
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NO. Here's why:
If a rock doesn't contain inexplicablyvalumium, it will give a correct reading 90% of the time, leaving 10% as a false reading.
Supposedly we have 5000 rocks in the mine, because a rock has a 1% chance of containing inexplicablyvalumium, that would make 50 rocks containing inexplicablyvalumium. But because we have a 10% rate of false reading, which means that out of the other 4950 rocks, there are 495 rocks which would give a false reading. So, the rate of having a genuine reading is 50 on 495+50, which is about 9.01%.
So, chances are pretty slim that the rock is containing inexplicablyvalumium in it.
P.S. Is this from Ted-Ed Riddles?
ok heres the solution i got
1% of the farm has this rare gem, and we have a 90% accuracy that its real
So lets say we have 1000 rocks, since we have 1% of the farm with the gem, 10 rocks have it, and we will pull all 10 of them, but 10% of the rocks without the gem also get pulled, so out of the 990 rocks left,we grab 99 with no gem
99+10=109, so 10 out of the 109 rock are real witch gives a 9.1% chance we could quintuple our investment
NO DEAL
9209277
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaand that's where it stops. Discord wouldn't lower it by 1 here. He'd lower it by 4. Assuming he's maximising his chances of winning.
So, we have farmed a rock. I believe, we heard the detector beep. It is a 1% chance, that we stumbled upon a genuine inex...mium. Out of the 99%, that we did not, there was a high possibility of the detector not to beep, but it did anyway. Suppose for the purpose of simplicity, that we had 1 000 rocks, therefore 10 of them are the genuine inex...mium. Out of the rest of it, 990, me may have chosen 99 -- the detector would have beeped. Out of 1 000 rocks 109 would give a beep, and it is out of these 109 rocks, that we have picked one. Therefore there is 10/109 probability, that our rock is genuine inex...mium (which is 9,17%). So I suppose, we should consider our risk, take Maud's deal and pay 20 000: if it is not genuine, we'll have lost less, than if we paid 100 000, and if it is -- we'll be able to resell it for 100 000, thus earning 80 000! And if we don't accept Maud's offer and pay 100 000, we'll either lose 100 000 or gain a very expensive rock. We might resell it as well, so it is the loss, that we consider.