Life is A Test 2: Test Harder (Quite A Bit Harder)

by Brony_of_Brody

The Pointy End Goes In The Other Pony

The referee of the game then asks each contestant to pick a square, and then dig. If they scored the treasure, great! If not, the buck passes to the next pony until all the squares are dug up, or the treasure is found, whichever is sooner.

As Rarity is the only one who knows where the treasure is, you proudly watch as she digs up a large bronze treasure chest and hauls it out of the ground, but before she can even begin to examine the prize inside, the ref draws a big pointy and very sharp looking metal stick resembling a cutlass (which makes it in all likelihood PROBABLY a cutlass) tackles Rarity to the floor and threatens her to fork over the treasure or else be repurposed into a very beautiful sharp object repository.

It turns out the treasure is in fact a bunch of ill-gotten gains, and the referee was hired by the pony who organised the whole event to find the treasure and dig it up, since she couldn't remember the exact spot where it was buried. Before you can even begin to question the sheer implausibility or the convolutedness of it all, Rarity manages to summon up enough magic to throw her off...right next to you. Well, horseapples.

She draws out several more cutlasses (one for each hoof, and yes, including the back ones somehow) and lunges at you. However, you are able to give her a good swift kick, and knock three of the cutlasses out of her hooves, with one landing to the left, and the other two to your right.

The kick also sends her reeling back and has sprained one of her wings, thankfully grounding her. However, she's still got a mean jump, and looks poised to strike...until the cutlass she's holding suddenly snaps in two. Your assailant curses out loud that her collection of sharp pointy swords seem to be easier to snap than initially thought, with half of the swords she got from the blacksmith (well, her apprentice, hence the less than professional job) seeming to fall apart at the slightest hit of forceful impact. She then goes through her Pinkie Pie-esque hammerspace looking for a cutlass that won't fall apart in her hooves.

Not much time to ponder yourself, unfortunately. You are seemingly without a weapon and therefore have to make for either the lone cutlass to your left, or try and grab the two on the right. (You admittedly don't have a lot of experience in sword-play, but you figure the basic principle of the pointy end going in the other pony shouldn't be too hard to grasp.) However, each cutlass has a 50% chance of falling to pieces at the slightest hint of great force. You recall that as you kicked the crazy pony away, you heard a slight sound of one of the swords cracking in your right direction, so you know that one of the swords in the pair is a defective brittle one, but not which one: you can't see it from where you're standing, and there's not much time to examine it before you are set upon once again.

So to avoid having more holes in you than a cheese grater, which one should you pick: the lone cutlass, or the pair, with one guaranteed defective one?

Author's Note:

This will annoy people, no matter how brilliant the explanation. I know it.

1. Three cutlasses: one cutlass on its lonesome to the left, and two grouped together on the right.
2. There's a 50% chance of a cutlass being brittle and will fall apart in your hooves.
3. You know that at least one of the cutlasses in the pair on the right is brittle, but not which one.
4. You only have time to dive for one of the two paths. (Either pick the lone cutlass on the left, or both of the ones on the right)

PUZZLE: Do you take the lone cutlass, or the two, for the best odds of one that'll survive a decent sword fight?

Comments

[Saphroneth]

Okay, so you know one cutlass is brittle on the right.
Without that information there are four possibilities for the ones which went to the right:

R1 Not, R2 Not
R1 Brittle, R2 Not
R2 Brittle, R1 Not
R1 Brittle, R2 Brittle

Since at least one of the ones on the right is brittle, you know it's not the first option. That means that the possibilities are:

R1 Brittle, R2 Not
R2 Brittle, R1 Not
R1 Brittle, R2 Brittle

There is a 2/3 chance of having one non-brittle cutlass on the right. There is a 1/3 chance of a randomly picked cutlass on the right being non-brittle.

If you take the one on the left you have a 50% chance of getting a brittle one, as there's only one.

IF you can only use one cutlass from your chosen path, go left. IF you can use two at once (or get to pick the other if the first one doesn't work), go right.

Interesting puzzle. Shades of the sort of thing the pony Monte Haul would come up with?

[Duckgame4life]

Seems ez enough
go left, 50/50 of a good blade
Go right 2/3 of a good blade
But if we only can pick 1 of the 2 blades going right our odds are 1/3
Pony we face will have these odds as well
1/2>1/3 go left