Life is A Test 2: Test Harder (Quite A Bit Harder)

by Brony_of_Brody

The Answer 14

First of all, definitely don't go into the game thinking that the odds of you winning is 50%. Although the odds of you drawing the Ace from the bag certainly is 50:50, consider this: what are the odds of you pulling the Ace, with its back facing you?

If you pull out the Ace, and the front is facing you, you will inevitably have to put the card back in the bag and re-shuffle, so 50% of the time you draw it, it's going back in the bag. In comparison, the double-sided card has two backs, so no matter which side faces you, it will never be put back in the bag. Therefore, the possible outcomes are:

Back-Back: Flam's win
Back-Back: Flam's win
Back-Ace: Your win
Ace-Back: Re-shuffle

Since we're not counting re-shuffles, we eliminate that possibility to realise that we now have two scenarios where Flam wins, compared to your measly one. So the probability of you winning a single round is one in three. Multiply that over the course of ten games, and your odds of winning only come out to about 6%.

Doesn't sound like it's possible to win without cheating, does it? Well, if it isn't possible without cheating...no duh, you cheat.

But what's the best way to do it? When playing a pony who knows the game is rigged in their favour, a lot of straight wins will certainly tip him off. But there is way to limit suspicious activity to only four rounds.

• First, mark the double-sided card. Marking the front or the back won't help, and it'll probably get you caught. What you need to do is make a tiny dent on the SIDE of the card. Even tiny dents can be detected by touch (try it out on a train ticket or store loyalty card later if you find the time), and they're difficult to spot with sight alone.
• When starting the game, pay close attention to the 2:1 ratio of pulling the Ace. Flam knows the game is stacked in his favour with those odds, so you need to intentionally let him win with a score of about 9-5, so he won't figure out you're cheating.
• From there, when it looks like you're on your last legs, simply keep drawing the Ace until you win. On 9-6, he won't suspect anything. 9-7, he might get suspicious but chalk it up as bad luck. 9-8, and he'll know you're cheating, and may even inspect the Ace card, but he won't find anything wrong with it: the card you actually marked is still in the bag!

The faster the game is going, the harder it'll be for Flam to catch on, and with only two rounds left, he's very unlikely to figure out the trick within that time.