Hayden realized the north was changing the moment she saw weather-ponies lounging around the square by noon, instead of their distant specks in a desperate battle against the clouds. Layers of ice sloughed off rooftops, and the streets began to clear. A day or two later, the great waterfall after which the city was named began to roar with life, creating a background hum that never quite went away.
Most important of all, though, was that the city was still there. Icefalls had not devoured itself with hunger, even though the caravans of supplies stopped coming from the south. There hadn’t been riots, its fortifications hadn’t been burned down. Even as more and more refugees arrived from the south as well as the north, bringing with them mostly one kind of magic, the city’s infrastructure held. Hayden would never know for sure whether it had been the innovations she had brought, or the cooperative spirit of Equestria’s ponies that had made it possible. Every day was a new reminder that they had nowhere else to flee—either they would triumph on the day the griffons attacked, or they would all be enslaved.
Hayden’s farmers planted new crops, spreading far and wide around the city. She had to encourage them to ignore the persistent voices that no one would survive to bring in the harvest. “We don’t have to make it through one battle. We have to keep going when that battle ends. Eventually, we’ll retake all the northern lands.” And maybe after that they would turn south. It was impossible to predict how things might go.
Her first scouts reported signs of enemy movement about two weeks into spring, when most of the snow had melted and everything was turning green. From a few captured birds, they learned the news nopony wanted to hear: the call to assemble had come. Every griffon was gathering. They planned to strike in just a few weeks, once they had gathered into one body. The Great Fleet would sail against Equestria in all its glory, either to triumph or be destroyed.
Hayden feared that this news might crush Icefalls’s morale, but she shouldn’t have worried. After their last defense, most citizens seemed content to keep working. Some of her soldiers even sounded eager for the attack to come, and a chance to use the weapons that only a few of their fellows had actually fired on their enemies.
Hayden spent many hours in hushed planning meetings with Lodestone and the other generals. It was a good thing they had learned so well, and become so strategically minded, because she didn’t have the right kind of mindset for it. Hayden had taught them everything she could about the capacities of their new weapons. She had made sure that they had all fired the arquebus, and been on cannon crews for a day. Hopefully it would be enough.
Hayden and her united army of all who had remained in the north could not possibly hope to defend the vast swathes of land left abandoned. Instead, Hayden had the fastest batponies and pegasi alike as scouts as far as she possibly could, watching from ancient guard posts but never investing enough resources to be easy to find.
So, the city watched and waited as word of the great war-camp reached them, with a rumored thousand ships. Eventually Hayden started losing touch with scouts and called back the rest. They could do nothing but wait.
They kept waiting. An entire month went by, and still there was no sign of the enemy. Hayden’s forces made good use of the extra time, building ever-firmer fortifications and better-training their freshest recruits. Another week went by, and Hayden’s bravest scouts returned with news. The enemy had never come for icefalls. They had passed between them and Defiance completely unopposed and were now occupying Vanhoover.
The next day, a small detachment of Equestrian Army MPs arrived by air, flying in such an angry rush that they were nearly mistaken for enemy combatants and shot down.
Hayden learned about them rather unexpectedly, when the little delegation battered its way into the great hall past every guard and soldier she had. It was evening, but in Icefalls that now meant breakfast. She wasn’t alone at the table but chatting in hushed voices with Lodestone and Nightbreeze.
“You,” barked a fierce, grizzled-looking pegasus. “You are the one commissioned to protect Equestria’s northern border. Evening Star, yes?”
This room didn’t have ordinary soldiers standing watch, but a pair of her elites. Both watched darkly from one wall, eyeing the still-armed MPs with wariness. Hayden could see both bats tracking these newcomers with the weapons on their shoulders, so subtly that nopony who had never seen these weapons before would notice.
“I am General Evening Star,” she said, not rising from where she sat. She carefully put down her fork, which she’d been manipulating rather deftly with one wing. Over a year in Equestria had taught her many small lessons. “Who are you?”
But she already recognized the uniforms, even if she didn’t know their names. Military Police always wore polished gold armor instead of something more practical. Not real gold, but a thin layer of bronze plated with the stuff. It shone quite impressively, though she doubted it could stand up to many serious blows. The cuirass underneath was made of polished gold links as well, not even tough enough to stop an arrow.
The one who had spoken had officers’ knots, the other saddlebags. There was nothing in them but restraints—hobbles for hooves, magic rings, wing bindings. How far had they flown with only those for supplies?
“That is none of your concern anymore,” said the officer—a bright gold stallion whose features seemed vaguely familiar to her. She had heard a voice like this before. “But so your second here knows, I am Lord Diamond Glow, head of the division of military inquiry. You have been tried in absentia, and found guilty for the crime of treason by negligence. You are hereby stripped of rank and ordered to report with us to Seaddle for execution.” He pointed one wing forward at her. “Arrest this pony.”
Diamond Glow… was this Golden Glow’s father? He was right… this stallion really is an asshole.
His companions strode forward with the swagger of stallions who were often obeyed. The rest of the room had fallen deadly silent—here two elites watched from the doorway without a word. Nightbreeze continued sipping at her soup, though her slitted eyes didn’t look away from her. She was pleading, desperate. Her eyes begged Hayden to know what to do.
Only Lodestone dared to speak. “Treason?” He rose from his seat, knocking over the train of boiled grain. Even now that he was the de facto leader of all the war in the north, he still ate like one of his men. The same way Hayden had done for a few nights, Lodestone did every night. “You can’t try a high officer for a capital crime—only her direct superior has that authority! You boot-lickers can’t try officers at all—put that bucking harness away.” He stepped away from the table just one step—far enough that his sword now hung free in its scabbard.
The MPs did stop, though not until they had glanced back at Officer Glow for clarification. His eyes hardened. “Her direct superior was part of that trial, whoever you are. Sergeant…”
As if you can’t see those knots, asshole. “General Lodestone,” Hayden corrected, loudly. “And I doubt it. I am high marshal—there is only one pony who can sit in judgement of me.”
“And she was there,” Glow exclaimed, exasperated. “Princess Celestia has found you guilty of every pony slain in Vanhoover. No less than two thousand separate counts—you were given a commission to protect Equestria’s northern border, and you did not even attempt to fulfill it. Don’t think we didn’t have informants watching you, General. Celestia’s eyes see as far as the sun itself. We know you knew the Stonebeaks were not coming for Icefalls. You didn’t send a single soldier to stop them. Constables, arrest her! If anypony tries to stop you, put them in irons as well.”
They strode forward again, removing a bulky wooden and strap contraption—meant for her wings, no doubt—and holding it up.
Hayden rose, her eyes narrowed to slits as she glowered at them. “Officer of the watch—you will defend this hall.”
There was a subtle clicking sound from the ponies behind her—and Sideswipe nodded his head once. “Aye, ma’am.”
The guards stopped. Hayden was honestly a little surprised—she hadn’t expected stories of her firearms to have traveled so far as Equestria proper. They shouldn’t have had as much of a fear of firearms. Yet both of them turned to stare at Diamond Glow.
“This pony is no longer in command,” Glow said, his voice dangerous. “You are no longer permitted to obey her. Obstructing her arrest is tantamount to allowing a murderer escape justice. You will be complicit in her crimes.”
Both bats looked utterly unmoved. Nightbreeze alone seemed to cower at his words—none of the others reacted.
Lodestone shook his head. “You’ve got a strange idea of justice, Officer Glow.”
“Apparently Celestia has forgotten my commission. Apparently she forgot that she withdrew nearly the whole army from Icefalls and left us to die. Apparently she forgot that my commission was to protect the north.”
Steel rang in the great hall as Diamond Glow drew his sword with one wing—impressive control, even more than Hayden could’ve done. But then, he had a lifetime to practice. “I will not suffer you to impugn her name! Princess Celestia is the ruler of all Equestria! Keep her name off your tongue, creature, or I will cut it off before we hang you.”
“How did you arrive in my city, Officer Glow?” Hayden could almost feel her mane lifting. A faint wind seemed to blow up from around her, though she couldn’t see where it was coming from, and her hooves never moved.
“Lord Diamond Glow,” he spat. “Chariot, obviously. If you think you will distract me, you waste your time. We will have justice for those who are dead because of you. Then we will take command of your army, and march them down to do their damn duty.”
She turned to Cloud Climber, the other elite. “Run to the stables, Cloud. Have a squadron take Officer Glow’s chariot to the forges. Make sure they burn all of it.”
Cloud didn’t question her orders—didn’t point out they were making their odds worse. Giving up their numerical advantage, without even asking him to raise an alarm. He merely saluted, and took off out a nearby window.
“I know the hangman,” Glow whispered. “Friend of mine. I’ll make sure he doesn’t use a long enough rope. You might hang for hours.”
“I doubt it.” Hayden rose to her hooves. As she did so, the movement of her passing put out the candles on the great table. She was cast in gloom, yet her side of the table didn’t get as dark as she would’ve expected. “We in the north do not accept the usurper’s authority over the army, Diamond Glow. Princess Luna is my superior, and nopony else. You will find the soldiers of Icefalls think very poorly of the princess who left us all to die. Who sent no food, no reinforcements, only threats of disgrace to all those who would not obey her evil orders. My soldiers did not abandon their duty the last time, what makes you think they would listen now?”
Her words had the desired effect. Glow might be an asshole, but he was at least true to his promises—he did attack her then, transferring his sword to his mouth and charging at her with a muffled cry of rage. His officers dropped their restraints and charged as well.
Lodestone drew his sword, much faster and more skillfully than Glow ever had.
But he didn’t get to swing it.
There were a few harsh cracks in the hall—loud enough that they echoed, but not as loud as the terrible guns outside. Three ponies dropped to the ground, none closer than five meters to where Hayden stood.
Sideswipe looked only satisfied as he saluted her, darkness behind his eyes. “Shot them, ma’am. Three assassins attacking a superior officer.”
Nightbreeze stumbled back away from the bloodstained table in abject horror, staring between Hayden and Sideswipe, then back again. “Th-that was… that was Lord… Lord…”
“That was an assassin,” Hayden said, shivering as she looked down at the corpse’s dead eyes. But the mysterious wind was gone from the hall, and proper gloom set in around them. “Three of them.” She turned back to Nightbreeze, eyes hardening. “I want you to spread a message around Icefalls—assassins posing as members of the division of military inquiry used their disguises to enter my hall, then drew their weapons and tried to kill me.”
“They weren’t… imposters,” Lodestone said, reaching down and removing the medallion from around the dead Lord’s neck. This one was made of gold, emblazoned with Celestia’s cutie mark.
“They must’ve been,” Hayden said, her eyes darkening. “Because if they hadn’t been, they would’ve known that only Princess Luna has the authority to pronounce charges.” She faced Nightbreeze again. “Make sure that part is there. They spread the obvious lie that Princess Celestia has usurped the power of her royal sister. Make it very clear that the watch is being instructed to kill any more obvious imposters who attempt to enter Icefalls without the seal of Princess Luna, War Marshal of Equestria.”
She took a step closer to Nightbreeze, around the back of the table. The thestral withdrew from her, eyes widening fearfully. But Hayden didn’t relent.
“You heard him,” she whispered, voice low and dangerous. “There are informants in the city. Make sure they hear it. Make sure everypony in all of Icefalls knows it.” She snapped back around, movements military precise as she looked at Lodestone. “That order isn’t fictional, General. See that every watchman knows. From this moment on, only soldiers bearing Luna’s seal will be allowed to enter the city.”
She stomped off past the dead, lowering her voice. “I need to have a conversation with Star Swirl. Somepony take these assassins to the morgue.”
Ho-Le-Sheet. Celestia dun goofed. She goofed HARD. She hoped to steal the north's weapons, the one she abandoned. Now she has the potential of civil war with an enemy that WILL defeat her. And an occupied city SHE has to defend. Let's see what will be her next move... because something tells me it's not the nightmare that shall face the elements this time.
I'm... not sure what Celestia expected. She ordered them abandon the city. And now she's crying treason because they didn't fight from the city? Honestly, princess...
8781634
She seems to be actively trying to make sure there is not a single soul left in the city still loyal to her. Honestly, Luna might be the only reason they haven't completely seceded from Equestria by now, ironic as it is.
Huh. I got proven wrong the last time I thought Celestia was being an evil cock-waffle, so... maybe I could be wrong again in thinking that she's an evil idiot?
Normally I like the short, frequent chapters, but this is "stay up until 3am binge-reading" material right here!
I'm so invested and excited that I can't tell if I was shaking from reading this chapter or just had too much coffee.
You know, I can nearly hear Hayden say "Check. Your move, Celestia.", just because it would be cool. Kinda sad that those MPs had to die, but considering, that Celestia wanted to kill Hayden because of her own mistake... Incredible, how shamelessly impudent she is.
it dark but the kind must be strong in order to be kind, merciful and icefall is just a new seedling just sprouting in such horrible times she, not a tyrant just someone protecting her people from death and abuse so don't blame this lady for her being ruthless!
That's the problem with a single point of defense against an opponent with air superiority. They can just go another way. And if you bring in the scouts before they can determine the fleet's trajectory...
Mind you, Celestia's either being a complete imbecile or is completely blinded by her hatred and fear of Hayden. I'd love to know how her spies came to the conclusion that Hayden was aware of where the griffons were going. They probably made it up to give the princess what she wanted. Suffice to say, alienating your army is not how to win a war... but neither is assuming that your enemy will walk right up to that army with targets painted on their chests.
8781629
8781634
And What about Diamond Glow? Did he really expected to just waltz into the city and take control of the soldiers from the leader who saved their flanks and gave them infraestructures and weapons ?
Not to mention, of course, trying to kill Hayden while her soldiers' firearms were still aiming at him.
8781708>>8781791
Both can be summed up with the same sin: Pride. Both think so highly of themselves that they cannot comprehend Hayden not complying with her own arrest, let alone the forces in Icefall siding with her against Celestia's orders. Never mind that Celestia all-but exiled them and left them to starve, that she plans to kill the only reason they're still alive and free, they should all be throwing themselves at her mercy and begging for the chance to die for her.
If history as we know it truly does repeat itself, I expect Nightmare Moon will be something of a wakeup call for Celestia (as, I think, it was in canon). If not, then it will surely be the other way around, because neither are healthy for each other or themselves.
Shit just got real.
8781788
To be fair to Celestia (about as fair as you can be to her in this chapter, probably), she likely didn't expect Hayden to completely pull off her scouts and stop watching the massive warcamp looming just past the horizon. Her spies apparently didn't inform her of those being pulled off, but that's more their failing than hers. Either way, it would explain why she was unprepared to defend Vanhoover with the soldiers stationed across the rest of Equestria.
Of course, that would imply that she expected Hayden to swarm out from their well-fortified defenses and apprehend a much stronger force to protect a country that disowned them, which would just be another flavor of arrogant conceit on her part.
Another interesting question would be how those spies got any messages back to her on a somewhat regular basis. If I remember correctly Icefalls is surrounded mostly by wide open plains, few ponies would have any reason to leave the vicinity of the town and even less to do so in the direction of Equestria. So either they for some reason still do mail calls to Equestria for soldiers writing back home, or they might've snuck around the mountain each time to send their reports.
This is awesome!
8781791
Overconfidence and no knowledge of how armies actually work. Do remember, he's not a soldier, he's a noble. He's not one loyal to Luna (as most the army is), but one loyal to Celestia, one that believes his name would be of any worth in the North. Celestia will still realise her folly... Likely when it will be too late.
If this is Celestia's doing, then she's an idiot. I remember she was witness that any pain that comes to either Luna or Hayden, they both feel it. She'd be condemning her own sister to death if she ordered Hayden to be hung. I don't think she's that forgetful, so I have my doubts that was her order. Hayden knows it and I bet that's why she called them assassins.
Am I really the only one reading (or at least commenting) who is wondering about any form of justice or rescue for the enslaved, murdered, and eaten civilians of Vanhoover? An army has a responsibility to the citizens of its country, and the commander of this army is currently allowing children to be eaten.
Apparently Hayden did too, unless she thinks protecting the north somehow includes allowing a griffon raiding party to sail straight through just because they are didn't stop to kill anyone specifically in the north itself. What use even is there in allowing a demonically possessed army to live at all if they aren't going to do their damn jobs?
Celestia may be fucking up, but it's not like Hayden isn't doing so as well.
Sadly, even if Hayden knew what the griffons were doing she couldn't stop them without suicidal action.
Go mobility advantage!
8782013
Exactly my thoughts, Hayden and Luna are tied together, this move was to remove or disgrace Hayden in Equestria, remember that Celestia has control of information in Equestria, for all we know she is spreading false rumors of her incompetence.
Remember that the Equestrians only saw a city sacked by griffon and nothing else, they don't know about the north, if Celestia tell them this situation is Hayden's fault they will believe her.
She is probably realizing that Luna or Hayden could make a new kingdom, her army is tied to vanhoover and she doesn't have all the cards anymore
8782041
I can only say this: maginot line.
Hayden knew the griffons would attack icefall and built a defensive line, with subpar troops and no food.
She wasn't even sure to win against the griffons from a fortified position with a few cannons.
This is not the film 300, if she can't protect even her territory what makes you think she can protect Equestria too?
So Princess Luna orders Hayden to NOT move from her city. Yet still expects her to somehow save another city. Riiiiiight. Oh and not to mention, if she knew what was going on, why didn't she contact Hayden until AFTER the attack happened?
What I think ACTUALLY happened is this: Celestia expected that Icefalls would be a sacrifice to the Griffons. That since Hayden managed to survive against the Griffons and instead attacked one of HER cities, that she made the call to execute Hayden to SAVE FACE!!! This is a POLITICAL MOVE so that she does NOT have to answer for her own negligence. You know, because of the way she has constantly disrespected and abandoned the Military, but expects them all to fight for her 100% whenever she needs them, despite treating them like shit every other time???
8782041
No, because Hayden has LIMITED resources, thanks to Celestia. Celestia has been treating the Military LIKE SHIT. CELESTIA is the one who tied Hayden's hooves to Icefalls with her last orders. Hell there's a reason LUNA sent ponies to Icefalls.
What this ACTUALLY is, is Celestia NOT wanting to own up to her mistakes. After all, if HER precious Sun Blessed City of Vanhoover falls, yet the Sun Cursed City of Icefalls SURVIVES AND THRIVES, how can she explain herself? No, this is about SAVING FACE. It's Political BS, so she doesn't have to answer for her crimes, Hayden is being used as a Scapegoat.
Remember: The only Official Duty Celestia gives Authority to with Luna is the Military. Celestia concerns herself with the Nobility.
Unless of course you can prove that Celestia did NOT force Hayden into an unwinable situation and that Hayden knew that they would be attacking the large city of Vanhoover. Also that after YEARS and probably DECADES of poorly equpping and feeding the Military, they should be obligated to follow her commands. Also why Luna and Hayden NEVER mentioned Vavhoover, until JUST NOW?
8782013
A third party, trying to play the Sisters against each other?
8782041
I'm not sure what you would expect Hayden to have done, given her circumstances. Sure, she could have led an expeditionary force to attack the griffons, gotten annihilated, and then lost two cities instead of just the one the bulk of the Equestrian military also didn't bother defending.
8782279
I don't know exactly when this takes place. It could be a new villain or Sombra trying to put them more at odds. Something tells me the Crystal Empire has already been dealt with however.
I’m of the opinion that there is a third party manipulating both of the sisters into doing highly foolish acts. I think both Celestia AND Luna have something toying with their emotions and thoughts. I’m not entirety certain that this is going to remain similar to the canon timeline for much longer.
That is why the griffons avoided Icefalls.
It's pretty sad that innocent ponies died in Vanhoover, but this is obviously Celestia's fault. She removed all she could from Icefalls; she didn't even believe they could survive the attack, much less stop the invasion. I mean, the griffons taking the long route and avoiding the city was surprising, but still being so unprepared that the griffons took a whole city, knowing they were at war... This is just lack of foresight at best and incompetence at worst.
The equestrian ponies are outraged for losing a city. This is why Celestia is blaming Hayden: "Oh we lost a city? Well, she was supposed to "defend the northern border" (with no army, no resources, not even food)". On the equestrian ponies defense, they might not know the whole story, just what Celestia feeds them.
Celestia is using Hayden as a scapegoat for her mistakes. But the best part is: she can't do anything to kill her. She has no authority on the north and can't enforce it now that she has a griffon army on on her territory. Well, she could keep sullying Hayden's name in Equestria, maybe even call all of Icefalls traitors to have an excuse to exterminate the city herself since her plan to let them die at the griffons' claws didn't work; or she could lash out at her unstable, in the brink of depression, sister, because THAT would be useful. I wonder which one she'll end up doing.
8782041
Hayden assumed that the griffons would hit Icefalls before the rest of Equestria, and didn't reevaluate that assumption when she sent their scouting attack packing. That was a mistake, though arguably the point was moot with her forces being limited and focused on defending from fortifications. But she also assumed that Celestia would actually do something with all the troops she stole from the north, and the apparent fact that she hasn't is certainly no fault of Hayden's.
Almost forgot the nitpicks.
cannon
General
8782013
8782279
Seeing how Lord Diamond Glow had Celestia's medallion, a third party involved seems unlikely. Celestia sent him to bring Hayden back to Seaddle, where she could have faked an execution and then dealt with her personally.
Lord Deadnow Glow trying to kill her on the spot was the result of his own entitlement, short temper and Hayden riling him up by not having any of his or Celestia's manure. If he'd somehow succeeded, Celestia likely would not have been very happy with that... Though how she would have explained that is an interesting thought experiment because Diamond Glow's attack against a high criminal resisting arrest was completely legal, at least as much as anything else about the trial was, possibly more so. Stupid, but legal.
8782991
If Celestia wanted to bring Hayden in and somehow deal with her quietly, the last thing she would do is send guards that would openly announce "we're bringing you back to chop off your head for ultra-treason."
Suddenly I have a bad feeling about some of the scouts falling to something other than griffies.
Also orders to assist might have worked... but orders to arrest? Oh boy did they not think that through. Especially if Celestia knows where Luna went.
8782827
We're talking about Vanhoover, which by the official map is roughly located in the same general place as Vancouver. I'm about 90% certain that it counts as a city in the North that Hayden was supposed to be protecting, even if we ignore the "commission to protect the northern border" bit that was mentioned in this chapter.
I could understand the arguments a bit better if the city that was attacked was Ponyville or Baltimare or something like that, but there's a fair chance that Hayden's army was the closest one available simply by the geography involved.
8783048
She needs a scapegoat, which means she can't deal with Hayden quietly... Not that she could, for several reasons.
That's why I said she'd fake an execution.
8783184
There is a difference between the northern border and northern territory.
I am laughing my ass off.
8782041
If you understood military strategy, you would understand that defending the entire northern border with such few soldiers is impossible. Especially against an airborn enemy. Tech means nothing when the enemy has numbers and superior mobility.
8783518
You realize hundred or even thousand of ponies who didn't have anything to do with Hayden's plight got enslaved/raped/eaten/etc... by the gryphon army, right?
It's not funny with the common people pay the price for their rulers's incompetence.
8783869
None of that happened; it's a story.
8783917
I am pretty sure he means he feels sorry for them in the terms of the story. Of course it never actually happened, but as the story goes celestia's own incompetence did lead to their deaths.
8784084
I am perfectly aware of this. It's just silly to have an issue with me finding the sheer irony of the situation humorous. I'm hardly laughing at the fictitious ponies being enslaved and murdered; I'm laughing at the magnitude in which Celestia's actions blew up in her face. Some would call it poetic.
8783406
It still doesn't work, though. You send a vastly too tiny force of military ponies into a city that hates them for leaving them all to die, and then have them explicitly demand that their leader surrender themselves for execution? There was only one way this was going to go and anyone involved in setting it up had to know it. So this is either a third party screwing around, or Celestia eliminating an irritating noble while setting up cassus beli for a civil war when they can least afford one.
This was one of my favourite chapters so far! Keep up the awesome writing!
8784414
We've already established that Celestia is kind of stupid and arrogant in this regard. It could be a third party somehow getting the help of one of Celestia's Most Trusted and then sending him to death (because if the goal was to drive a wedge between Icefalls and Celestia, he knew he likely wouldn't get out of there alive) or Celestia antagonizing and alienating the largest military post in Equestria just to get rid of one noble.
But more likely seems to me that she really is just that arrogant to think that everypony will jump at the mere mention of her name. She's used to being surrounded by nobles and civilians fawning over her as if she was a Want-It-Need-It doll while completely ignoring the few factions who are actually more loyal to her sister (both their opinions and their needs). Now she has to deal with one of those factions and she treats them just like she does any pony back in the capital: like Princess knows best and everypony is supposed to know and accept that.
8783184
All I know about Vanhoover's location relative to Defiance and Icefalls is that it's more or less on the opposite side of them from the expected direction of griffon attack. This does not inform us of the extent to which the city was justified in assuming that the forces of Icefalls were responsible for defending it.
If you're relying on the map of Equestria that can be found on the wiki, we know where Vanhoover is, but it's on the other side of the continent from griffon territory. Where are the griffons actually coming from? Where are Icefalls and Defiance in relation to this—what is the span of territory you are faulting her for not covering with much-reduced forces? And where is Whinnypeg, where the recalled troops were supposed to gather? Did they drop the ball just as badly? Whinnypeg (Winnipeg) seems to me, in the absence of contrary evidence, to be comparable with Vanhoover as far as "North" goes.
Hayden has reasons why she did not try to defend more than Icefalls itself, but that doesn't mean she's necessarily blameless. But I am not convinced of the reasons you give for her being as responsible as you suggest for what happened.
8782752
I agree, they realised that the threat in Icefalls was far greater than they could anticipate and it was only getting worse. Easier to avoid the threat and take a soft target to establish yourself in a territory. From there they can branch out, take more territory and create supply lines, all the while the strongest fighting force Equestria has ever been witness too can't really do much to help greater Equestria and I doubt most of them even care anymore after Celestia so clearly abandoned them.
8784962
maybe author didn't followed that map. in real world Fort Defiance and nearby fort that possibly could be Icefalls were near Vancuver, though they were british bases.Though, there were more that one fort of that name.
8784414
The important part about a scape goat is that they escape, so that you can keep blaming them. If she wanted to use Hayden as a scape goat, she'd send a delegation knowing that he wouldn't obey their orders.
She might not have expected them to get themselves killed.