Lunar Rebellion Poll Results, and Phoenix Empress Cover · 3:53am Jan 27th, 2014
Got a two-part update here: first off, we're posting the results of the Lunar Rebellion Poll now that it's been a while since there were any new votes. So, here’s the tally on which side people like in "The Lunar Rebellion."
Celestia: 72
Rebels: 19
Neutral: 7
Whichever Side Shadow's on: 3
Interesting results, though admittedly the whole "choose a side" dynamic does have an influence on the them. A lot of the people who voted for Celestia included some caveat along the lines of "The rebels do have some legitimate grievances, but..." It would've been interesting to see how the results would have broken if I'd added more nuance to the question by having one option for unconditional support of Celestia, and another that was more reserved.
In other news, InuHoshi's made some amazing cover art for the upcoming "Rise of the Phoenix Empress." Barring huge unexpected developments, "Rise" will be going up this Friday, on the 31st.
Beautiful cover art as usual.
...huh, I missed this poll, where ever it was.
If the question was in regards to who to I wish could win the rebellion, that'd be the "rebels". Celestia should respect their fear, sue for peace and guarantee their independence. It's not like the pegasi want to rule the unicorns, they just see Celestia as a threat given she has no respect for the completely legal way in which she was deposed. That and they feel she fixed the earth pony election, then had her opponent assassinated, in order to not lose another significant portion of her empire.
Even if they were to know it was not Celestia that had Apple Tree killed, that doesn't change the fact that it guarantees her governance. She's the president there again, no more questions asked.
All the pegasi want is a guarantee that:
1. Celestia will not forcibly try to retake them, and
2. she will not use their dependance on the earth ponies and unicorns to bring the pegasi back into the fold.
They want to be considered an independant nation with significant economic and military codependency. It is an entirely admirable goal, wanting to retain their independence when Celestia brings nothing to the table but instability and blatant respect for a culture she was supposed to be the leader of. I still get a bit fumed at the gaul of her taking advantage of the pegasi defending their earth pony charges from the griffins all while reprimanding them for doing their sworn duty. In that moment, she had no honor. The pegasi did the right thing, she was wrong, no matter their methods she should have taken it on the chin and commended them wholeheartedly for every pony life saved that would have been lost had they obeyed her orders.
...so yeah, I want the rebels to win, all the way.
If the question is "which side would you fight for", that'd be Celestia's. She wins. Even without meta-knowledge, it looks like the unicorns will blow the pegasi out of the sky. Celestia's empire is too big, the pegasi are too reliant on them and Celestia, herself, is a magical powerhouse. No chance.
Aw, gorgeous cover art as usual! And thanks for sharing the poll results, much obliged. Voted for Celestia myself, for reasons explained in the poll itself. Anyways, looking very much forward to Phoenix Empress, and best wishes on all of your ongoing projects!
WHO'S THAT ALICORN?!
IT'S… I DON'T KNOW!
1763897
The pegasi are already independent. Neither her nor any current government official has shown any indication that they want the pegasi back in, and there hasn't even been the slightest of casus belli to warrant an aggressive action. They removed Celestia as their leader. What they're doing now is a unilateral declaration of war.
You can't be independent and then be codependent. If the pegasi want to be independent, then they have to take care of their own economy and military. If the griffons invade, tough. You're independent, it's your problem, not Unicornia's or whatever-the-name-of-the-Earth-Ponies-country-is.
It's called diplomacy. For instance, you don't invade the griffon mainland, attack a city, and then kill one of their high ranking officials. Wars have been fought for much, much less than that. The pegasi are lucky the griffons don't have many more warhawks or this story would have gone in a much different direction.
The Klingon Empire will not stand for such actions! International relations need a lot more than "honor" to do anything. While we're on the subject of "honor," let's talk about the "honor" of getting your wings ripped off because you don't meet the sociological norms that have been set--sometimes while you're still a child, or how about the "honor" of being a sovereign nation invaded by a group who are openly proclaiming the omnicidal maniac who attempted to kill everyone via eternal night to be their leader, or the "honor" involved in being a bunch of hypocrites ("How dare the unicorns interfere in our affairs! What's that? The Earth Ponies are having an election? Why the fuck haven't we interfered yet?"). How very honorable of the pegasi.
As Chancellor Martok once said, "They're worthy fighters; but they have no sense of honor."
Yeah, I think I might have been one of the people that qualified my choice on Celestia. Hard to remember though. I think I might have said something to the effect that I chose Celestia mostly for meta reasons.
We know that Celestia means well, and will end up being just about the best ruler anyone could hope for.
1764553
Look in the bottom right of the Lunar Rebellion title picture.
'Tis Archmage Sunbeam Sparkle.
...or maybe Sunset Shimmer time traveling to the past to kill Celestia
to ensure the rise of Skynet.1764626
Ha! That tickled my fancy, for some reason.
Not so sure about that though. Lots of independent nations rely heavily on others, for trade and military alliances and such. Pretty sure that's been the case essentially throughout history.
Us maple syrup sucking jerks up here in Canada are only #14 when it comes to military spending in the world. But we don't exactly worry about external threats, because we have a web of military alliances securing a majority of the military power in the world.
Likewise, we're tied to other nations economically. If the US suddenly vanished (or even China or the UK to far lesser extents), we'd have lots of economic troubles on the horizon.
But are we independent? Sure.
1764626
I remember Celestia telling Shadow that she considered the Pegasi removing her tantamount to treason (or something along those lines). I could have sworn she’d communicated as much to the ephorate. The entire reason they were in favor of destabilizing her control over the Earth Ponies was so that she couldn’t use that position against them.
What, exactly, do you think they are fighting over if not for some guarantee of their sovereignty? I’ve seen no indication that they want control of the unicorn lands, let alone earth pony ones...
I dunno about that. Few nations are “islands”. The US and Canada have a significant level of interdependence, for example. Japan would be hard-pressed to provide food for their entire people. I could probably think of other examples, but yeah, I suppose independence isn’t the right word. Sovereignty is.
You cut off half my sentence. It’s not that she took advantage of the situation; it’s that she scolded the pegasi. If she wanted them to not slaughter a bunch of pony-eating murderers, she should have taken charge of the situation from the get-go.
That was still never proven but, more to the point, it was particularly never determined to what degree the pegasi were participating in it.
I should hope, as soon as Shadow has gotten settled in the Unicorn capital, Celestia re-starts the investigation into clippings within the Kicker clan. I mean, they’ll be right there and within her control. Best not to have any show of favoritism and go ahead with the assumption that those pegasi that “stayed loyal” to Celestia are the only ones not engaging in clippings.
Yeah, there’s no excuse for calling on Luna to be their representative. It was dumb.
While throwing their support behind Apple Tree was a bit too aggressive at the time, it could be implied the unicorn nation would throw their support behind Celestia. I don’t think that was overly damnable. They weren’t providing anything meaningful, like money or protection. Just a show of support, IIRC.
In their position, though, I would have stayed out of the election. It was more than a little hypocritical, even if that can be said for the majority of politics.
What in the what!? When did Rainbow Dash and Sunset Shimmer have a child, and why did that child travel back in time!?
...wait, is that a young Celestia on the left? Well, this is taking an unexpected turn...
As for the poll, I maintain that the rebels projecting their own paranoia, fear, and duplicity on Celestia is largely to blame. Could she have done something more with the non-unicorns? Yes, but she'd lost her sister. For an immortal, a century spent sulking is like sitting shiva.
(Simplistic? Yes. But that's why I don't write political drama.)
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TSG's points are still valid even in the face of your rebuttal. After reviewing the three posts making up this chain, I can vouch in the name of years of political observation (and a great deal of internal sociological politics/first-hand diplomacy) experience that TSG's counter-claims are solid.
Your arguments feel much less like they're based on in-world considerations and using unbiased logic to state plausible facts, and more like you're searching for reasons why your personal feelings should outweigh justifiable points. It also feels like you're doing that unintentionally and don't quite realize it.
I mean this as no offense upon you, but this is the state of things.
Essentially, at the end of the day - the rebels are the aggressors here. There were mistakes on Celestia's part, mistakes made during the story that she could not have known were mistakes, due to mistakes she made prior to the story - such as trusting the Ephorate to govern themselves almost entirely without her. She placed so much trust in their loyalty and independence that they basically considered themselves to be a separate nation long before this. But they are the ones who used those mistakes and things that were never in Celestia's control or her responsibility at all in an attempt to justify their actions. All of this and TSG's points are supported when looking through the story in an objective manner.
So, they are starting a war. A war they long for. Do you know why this is? They are not fighting to secede - Celestia would easily grant them that, I believe, and attempt to keep friendly relations and trade going so the pony race at least doesn't splinter horribly. There would be time to pull the pegasi back in in a more favorable environment to them and all ponies a few generations later, after all. So, they know that cutting all ties with the throne means they no longer get access to Equestria's food, which they are apparently too bound in tradition and proud to set aside some of their number as farmers for...
This leads to exactly one thing: The pegasi need CONTROL. They need to remove Celestia, break Unicornia, and subdue the earth ponies either through the show of force by taking down the Crown and rendering the unicorns incapable of resistance, or by also putting the earth ponies to the sword until they also surrender.
There are no other options at this point with the current information provided by the Winningverse, and with a deep understanding of how political action and warfare works in our own sapient society. They have connived and betrayed and and spilled blood specifically to help push things to the breaking point, to justify to all the pegasi race that they /NEED/ to predominate the other races and consolidate ponydom under their militant rule. It's a common tactic of any national government, it creates false patriotism in people who might otherwise highly disagree or even rebel against a government who is doing their horrible and selfish deeds out in the open and honestly. History is my proof here, a little study into the origins of propaganda and its usage prior to and during conflicts throughout history will prove me correct.
In the end, the Earth Ponies are selfish and short-sighted. The Ephorate Rebels serving under the banner of the villain who tried to destroy the world (for the purpose of propaganda used against Celestia) are attempting to take power instead of seeking a harmonious balance or to just move off from the other races and do their own thing. Both are willing to spill blood for their pride and greed.
Unicornia is too set in its courtly ways, and is willing to spill blood in order to maintain their own status of pride and greed.
At the nexus of all of this is Celestia, who wants the best for all of them, for no blood to be spilled - and has plans to fix the majority of problems for the three races over time. Because sudden changes cause whiplash that break down a society and cause... gasp! Civil wars, just like this one that she's been trying to avoid for all this time. Even for her mistakes, one cannot truly fault her. She did battle with her beloved sister, her only companion in an eternal life, and was forced to seal her away - which she did for the sake of these ungrateful ponies who are after her life.
She saved all of them long before they were born, made sure they were provided for, kept up tricky political and diplomatic fronts to try and keep her ponies from dying to outside invaders and taken care of these horrible ponies far better than they had any right to be taken care of, has worked to create a balance that can gently ease into harmony if the ponies would just stick to the plan. Her mistake? Grieving for her lost sister, as would anyone with a heart. But, would you not believe, that an immortal might grieve longer for their loss? While Celestia has been in mourning, she has not been as attentive, which is the only fault we can apply to her; and even then we cannot do so accusingly, because it is the most normal thing in the world for anyone to do, be they king or pauper.
___
1764626
Also, it's nice to see someone uses "omnicidal maniac" when referring to Nightmare Moon besides myself. Thought I was the only one. ... Granted, telling the truth about NMM or Luna in this fandom gets you stoned to death by waifu-cultists.
Hark! it is Celestia's Grand and magnanimous mentor, Queenling Firebutt!
I do love me a good backstory or three
1764881
Aww, you had me until...
...that.
I'm not sure why you immediately jump to the most violent and extreme end being the 'exactly one thing' it can lead to. We've seen no sign that the rebels plan a brutal subjugation of the rest of ponykind. For all they think she's an ineffective, biased tyrant, Celestia shows no sign of planning to starve the Pegasi out. It would certainly be out of character for her to do so. And I don't even think the rebels would think she would.
They could always trade for such things. Or barter their weather-manipulation for percentages of the crop, even if they weren't officially part of Equestria.
At some point in the future, Inuhoshi and Chengar Qordath will coalesce into a single being of awesome.
1764553 That is Sumbeam Sparkle!
http://www.fimfiction.net/story/77470/the-lunar-rebellion
1765003
Look over the tone of their planning, reread the discussions between the Ephors, and pay special attention to Swift. Without saying it in bold letters, it is certainly something they've considered to approach this point. Not only that, someone's character and general reactions in times of peace and negotiation only comes into play when you're still in times of peace and negotiation. Their experience and overall view of their actions and reactions take precedence in this case. There is no "jumping to the violent ending" when they are at war. They've already moved to that violent ending and ponies are going to die, which requires no assumptions or conjecture from me.
War and violence are wholly separate matters from what you were suggesting. The fact they have stooped to incitement and propaganda in the first place shows they know Celestia is not to be taken lightly. What military council would look at someone with a track record like Celestia and say "It most likely won't come to that." while they're menacing the threat of a sword to the neck for said commander and all who follow them?
Even moreso, someone who is motherly and caring like Celestia. How far would someone like that go to protect? If nothing else, starvation is an extremely effective military tactic as proven throughout historical conflicts - such is the focus of blockades and sieges, in an attempt to shut down a war with minimal loss of life. If anything one should consider that Celestia's position, where she doesn't want death to begin with, a relatively non-violent solution like this that would turn a commander's army against him as morale broke and survival caused the force to surrender would actually be the sort of thing you'd consider her to think of first. Not to ignore the extreme strategic value of.
This isn't a matter of bandying back and forth over opinions and ideas between Celestia and the rebels, good Luminary. The war is on, and the Ephors had been wanting this exactly for some time, if you take note of their restlessness. The table is cleared only for tactical planning and strategy from the point on that they decided on this course of action. I have spent a good deal of time studying military tactics and brushing up on war history over my life, as well as studies in psychology and sociology for matters like diplomacy and societal reaction to the induction of ideas ranging from beneficial to violence. I can't say I am an expert, but I will say that if the rebels follow militaristic thinking - which they've certainly proven to so far, there stands a nearly irrefutable chance that my own points stand.*
*To be supported or invalidated upon further chapters and the breakdown of events in those chapters!
>Looks at cover art.
cdn.gifbay.com/2013/11/the_day_of_the_doctor-99669.gif
1765152
I didn't say 'jump to the violent ending'. I said jump to the most violent and extreme ending. Not all war is total war. Most war isn't total war. We don't launch the nukes as the first response. And if you're as learned about history and warfare as you say you are, I don't think you can really deny that.
Knowing what I know about Celestia, and how Chen sees Celestia from my speaking to him, I can pretty much know she'll avoid the loss of life as much as possible. And starving out a large city is probably something that would lead to far more suffering and loss of life than even the bloodiest battle.
Moreover, I don't think most of the Ephorate would condone wholesale slaughter of the earth ponies under any circumstances. You have to remember, they're rushing in support of them. Or what they think is support. The domineering Pegasopolis we see in the Hearth Warming play is in the past, at this point. I think the notion of protecting ponykind is still something at the core of their philosophy.
Obviously, we might not be able to say that about all of the Ephorate. Or that it's going to remain that way. But I'm really going to doubt that the barbarism you're talking about is going to be the first stop. Not with both sides thinking they're the good guys, protecting the interests of ponykind.
Ok I gotta say something on this. I noticed, allmost right from the start, the ephors where working on destabalizing the other governments. Heck, half the reason that Shadow was sent to unicornia was to see how she would turn when things happened. The ephors where the ones that where rigging the election among the earth ponys, I do not think Tia even wanted the position, heck, she did not want any of them, she was doing them to keep the status quoe going. Yah she made mistakes, but, the bigist mistake she made was in trusting the ponys under her to do there jobs right, and expecting them to be good ponys.
Much as Appletree was right that something needed to be done, what he wanted to do was not fair to anyone, not even the people he wanted to give everything too. He refused to see any option other than what he wanted, and he knew that the pegasi where wanting a war, and he was willing to use there war to get what he wanted.
The archmage was the only one at the begining who was trying for a unifed government, yes, she wanted the unicorns on the top of the heap, but, she had reasons for that, and she saw how badly the other systems where running. The earth ponys where slowly desolving into debt slavery, the pegasi where falling back into old habbits, such as killing, or crippling any pony that did not fit there 'standards' And the standards where not even static.
Blah, kinda got to wondering, distracted with real life, ahh well, still, if the pegasi had not lit off the powderkeg, it could have been contained.
On the plus side, this was the kick that Tia needed to get off her rump and to start leading again, rather than just being a figurhead
1765759
You're playing the game wrong, Lumi! You're supposed to speculate on the most niche nuances in the writing and extrapolate the 'between the lines' information from there to form predictions! Insider knowledge is forbidden from here on! Hmph.
That said, this is what I can pull from factors currently presented within the story. To those of us without a peek into the mighty engine of the 'verse, I can also see how you come by your own idea even if I do not agree that any of it's off the table just yet. Judging from how it's talked about in modern times and getting a glimpse at the darker sides of each racial group and major player in the conflict to come, I would personally have to be out of my mind to believe they would truly dismiss any strategy off the board - especially when it has a strong chance of winning the day in one swoop with minimal losses; all around in Celestia's case, and to their own forces in the cases of the tribes.
Unless you're intoning that the Lunar Rebellion, with what we know of it in modern times from Kicky explaining her clan, is some form of shadow conflict fought behind the curtains and not a grand-scale protracted war, we're going to see heavy resources committed to the field. While I may not have invoked Total War, if you think about it that's what any civil war is going to be when you're within spitting distance of a potential rival/resource and the enemies you've made. Also not to mention when everything your side consists of can fit within a city or two, I have a hard time picturing that not being the result.
(Sprinkle "seems" and "I believe" and "in my opinion" throughout where necessary. I tend to forget to do so myself, but assume anything I say is malleable pending greater evidence or a more acceptable line of thought! - That's what makes this sort of thing fun.)
1764881
...did you just imply that I am a waifu occultist? o_O
I can't really say if I like Celestia or Luna more, it really depends on their depiction, but I have no clear preference just based on the show.
If you weren't saying that, then nevermind, but it's an odd juxtaposition.
To lead is the burden of a leader. When she could not lead, particularly not for generations, she cannot be particularly surprised that they wouldn't honor her claim to the mantel.
I really don't think the pegasi intend to dominate the earth ponies as you describe. I don't see that in their actions. I would say that this war is being pushed too aggressively by them at this juncture. I still would support their right to sovereignty. I don't think they intend to "break" Unicornia. I'm not even sure what that would entail. Dismantling their empire entirely? Killing the majority of the unicorns off and scattering the rest to the winds? You suggest they intend to subdue the earth ponies. I'm not under the impression they have positioned themselves for aggressive action against the earth pony capital. Their initial intention was to have the earth ponies on their side, after all. If the pegasi and earth ponies stood against unicornia, I'm not sure how there could even be a civil war.
1766555
Wait, what? No one said anything about the occult. o-o And I don't imply things, if I want to accuse you of something I'm quite straight-forward! Don't worry, that had nothing to do with you - just a brief snort at the people who've brainwashed themselves into thinking that NMM and Luna are victims of "evil tyrant Celestia" despite all the canon evidence to the contrary. Bit of an annoying spot there for me.
Let me put it to you this way on the subject of the earth ponies. What do we know of pre-unification Equestria? The earth ponies were effectively treated like crap and kept as peasants from what we can gather and infer. Both the unicorns and pegasi are guilty of this. The unicorns held the (theoretical/may have been a ruse) power to control the entire heavens. The pegasi controlled the weather and were a militaristic, expansionist race based on dialogue of Hurricane and Pansy from the even dumbed-down-for-pony-family-friendly play they put on of that time period.
In order to keep the earth ponies supplying both of them with food, how would you logically come to the conclusion that the tithes were extracted? Asking nicely surely wouldn't do it. If the earth ponies stopped giving away the lion's share of their food to the other two groups, the unicorns can easily say that they'll stop the sun and moon (whether they could or not remains a mystery). The pegasi can easily say they'll stop creating weather for crop-growing.
But what else did they have hanging above the heads of the pauper-like Earth Tribe? Wizards and Warriors, magical and martial power while the earth ponies are basically just poor farmers. This setup would have obviously worked swimmingly well for everyone but the earth ponies, yes? So, if it is as the Ephors say, and they are not willing to risk the loss of food for their people, they have two options - hope they can create the closest of allies with the earth ponies, who will continue to provide them with food - and thus also prevent the influx of supplies to Unicornia. No food for Celestia's troops, because who feeds the enemy during war?
This hinges on the pegasi trusting that the earth ponies don't get any funny ideas of their own from this - such as considering the pegasi and their needs to be inferior due to their reliance on the earth ponies, as the only 'potentially' self-sufficient tribe. If they don't trust that at any point during the war, the next step is to secure the supplies necessary for your campaign. If that means raiding or subduing once diplomacy has failed, that is a valid and time-tested strategy that is not off the table of potential actions the pegasi can take.
THAT is what I meant by my comments on the pegasi and earth ponies. That depending on how this unfolds, to ensure that the pegasi are not beholden to anyone or subservient to anyone, they would need to bring the other two under their rule or at least the fear of the sword.
Which is what breaking Unicornia means. Disabling the soldiery, removing the leaders - so they can't mount a resistance. Common tactic when the enemy populace can be more useful to you alive than wiped off the face of the earth. Take away their fangs and put them to work.
I feel it was a little short-sighted to assume I was speaking only of the pegasi's obvious and current spoken intentions (especially when the rebels have been quite devious). I am projecting possibilities based on inferences drawn from parts of the story, with the gaps filled by situation-appropriate considerations. To later be replaced by what actually happens once we start getting updates again that I am eagerly waiting.
Also, I did state that yes - going into grieving for her lost sister was Celestia's mistake as a leader. Just a very understandable mistake. But even -with- that mistake she's still kept things together up until this point, so I say that's quite impressive!
That's how this works! That's why it's fun, come on now. Let's see some more of your ideas, too. Based on the story, and how we can assume it turns out from hearing Kicky in the modern era, what do you think will plausibly happen?
1766136
I suck at wild speculation. I always have. I'm the worst commenter ever!
If it makes you feel better, I think once NMM comes into play, things will take a huge nosedive in terms of civility, and things will probably become a horrorshow.
If that was the case, I expect the history of the Lunar Rebellion would be something like:
'The rebel forces gathered upon the hills outside of Canterlot, rank upon rank of armored pegasi, twenty deep. The sang songs to bolster courage, and raise their spirits to crush their supposed oppressor.
A bolt of flame screamed down from the heavens, from the very sun itself, to rake across the vanguard. Not even ash was ever found of that thousand fearless warriors.
Thus the first, and only, battle ended, with the rebel leaders bowed in defeat before the living sun, their rebellion over.'
But it isn't, so far as we can tell. Personally, I'm expecting a lot of skirmishing, raiding and attacks of hostile weather. It's the sort of thing pegasi excel at. And right now they have an unrivaled advantage in movement, and a nigh-complete ownership of the air.
They can attack anywhere. Their city is mobile and out of reach. There really isn't any need to go right into the unicorn's teeth, where they'll be entrenched. At least not until they've more or less secured everything else. And yeah, the pegasi might prioritize securing food. But heck, they'll have sympathetic earth ponies willing to provide. There's no need to just take them over.
1766555
I hope so! That's the best phrase I've ever heard.
Thoughts on the new cover:
Luna and Celestia as Fillies and the Phoenix Empress their mother? A pony period fic?
1767109
Depends on the canon; the comics are kinda iffy with it. It's both their faults for creating the problem... Luna for being passive aggressive about her jealousy up until the point where she exploded and Celestia's for not being more attuned to Luna's emotional distress and likely adding to it (they're siblings and Celestia's a little prank-y... I can hardly imagine her not picking a little fun and Luna taking it too seriously). The ultimate blame lies on the nightmare, though. After all, it was even able to turn Rarity evil and she didn't even have any strong amount of anger, jealousy, etc. to work with. She was just plain dominated by the demonic force. Luna simply suffered the same while being much more dangerous and Celestia not being aware of any other way to stop her.
In the comics, Rarity is saved by her friends and so many others channeling their love and memories of their friendship with her into her, eventually beating back the nightmare. Celestia obviously could have used a similar tactic but, I expect, just didn't think of it. All she saw was her shapeshifting sister looking different and acting crazy so, after failing to subdue her, she put her down.
If you ignore the canon reason for Luna's "madness", it depends on what fancanon you're going with to determine who is at fault. People just tend to support Luna more than Celestia because she's the underdog. She lost. Twice. She then seemingly went into hiding for potentially years before showing up for nightmare night, getting picked on and going off to mope again. All while Celestia remains confident on the throne, pranking ponies and letting her student face all but insurmountable monsters without lifting a hoof to help her.
It's not hard to see why people might consider Celestia to be a bit of a manipulative bully. Hopefully future episodes will continue to help dissuading people from that notion as Celestia and Luna get more of an equal presence in matters concerning the empire.
But yeah, overall, I don't have a preference. They're different-enough for me to like both equally.
Pegasi weather control's gonna be a bit of a linchpin in this clash. The majority of earth ponies probably aren't close-enough to water sources to begin providing their own irrigation. Maybe Celestia and a significant amount of unicorns could devote themselves to providing rain and cloud cover for farms (so that all that water doesn't evaporate again immediately), but the earth pony farms probably lack the ponypower to start hauling water everywhere while maintaining anywhere near their current output.
...then again, that might be what Celestia directs the kicker clan to do, as the only significant number of loyal pegasi available to her.
Gezz, you're right... then Celestia and her unicorns will no doubt turn around and start raiding and enslaving them, too, since they need food just as much!
...or am I supposed to assume the worst for the pegasi and the best of the unicorns?
Manehattan has a large number of earth ponies that are, by and large, useless to the pegasi. Craftsponies and buisnessponies. The farmers are spread out everywhere and the majority of their interactions have probably been more with the pegasi providing them rain and etc. while protecting them from griffins and the like over the unicorns... basically just living really far away and buying food from their landowners. Food sources will be easy to secure, I wager. A bigger issue will be the fact that the pegasi don't have currency and the earth ponies are strongly capitalistic. That's been mostly smoothed over by Celestia providing the pegasi a kind of stipend for use within the earth pony system to buy food and the like, IIRC. Lacking that, the earth ponies are unlikely to enjoy working with the pegasi, but they need them far more than they do the unicorns.
Celestia would never, ever stop moving the sun and moon. It's not just that it would go against her nature (in my opinion) for her to do so, but there's no way to selectively provide that service. If she does it for the earth ponies that stay loyal, the ones that don't will still benefit.
That or I'm avoiding what sounds like a "slippery slope" argument, stipulating the pegasi will inevitably attempt to destroy the unicorns and all but enslave the earth ponies. It sounds more like a worst case scenario that selectively ignores any similarly aggressive unicorn response for the sake of painting the pegasi as the ones explicitly in the wrong, here.
Yes, Celestia ultimately wants what's best for all her ponies, but while the unicorns idolize her they still seem to operate with a lot of independence. The mages, particularly, seems to be explicitly described as an organization in which the most treacherous rise to the top. I don't see them willingly suffering food shortages if there's a relatively-undefended earth pony farm or market nearby. Heck, they might not even need a shortage. They're nobles, after all... they might just get sick of preserved food.
I personally think you're oversimplifying the issue and excessively vilifying just the pegasi.
That's kinda like saying it was okay for her to dismiss the pegasi's concerns regarding the griffin abductions due to the fact that she was already overworked and didn't have time to deal with the issue beyond having her vizier paraphrase their treaty with the griffin empire.
It's an excuse to not deal with it herself, not an excuse to not have it dealt with at all.
The consequences of that oversight were serious and, if she couldn't make time, she should have delegated someone to look into it and act on her behalf.
There's a lot of pressure in being the leader of three heterogeneous nations but she took up those mantels so she just plain needed to deal with it.
As much as I wish the war could be terrible, that she ends up taking the lives of ponies she loves and it leaves her bitter and suffering 'till the end of her days (what can I say, I'm a BIG fan of tragedies and anything grim and/or dark), I think the war will be anything but total in nature. Although time might have made the wounds fade Shadow, in the intro, doesn't seem overly dark about the war. She definitely considers it to be a bitter thing, as all wars are, but... I dunno. The general theme of the narrative doesn't seem to be setting her up for a great fall. This war is something she's willing to talk about. To reminisce and remind herself of without prompting. I don't expect it to be riddled with war crimes.
She remains confident of the side she has chosen to stand on. She probably gets to keep her promise not to have to kill Rightly. Her daughter probably survives, too. Her choices obviously don't bring an end to the kicker family, though the same can't be said for the other major houses, like the chargers. I could very well be wrong and overlooking something given I've never read any other Winningverse fics, but the chargers don't ring a bell.
If they aren't already established in the present, then... well... during the griffin conflict Shadow remarked that, while more of her clan was injured, more of the chargers were killed, likely due to their tactics in battle. I'd love it if their matriarch was to die ingloriously, too, but I'm not sure if this author is the type to do that.
Overall, after a prolonged conflict of fairly measured attack and response with a similarly steady advancement in hostilities, after the major leaders of the rebel force have been "dealt with" (likely the majority of the charger clan, as well as Swift Blade, 'though less likely his clan since it is minor... it likely just dissolves), Celestia will be able to negotiate peace under some measure of her rule. Sometime in the future she'll likely be organizing the three governments under a single central one as a result of this war, but her interm measures aren't likely to revolutionize the pegasi's government in the short term.
Shadow will probably need Celestia's encouragement to properly mourn Rightly (who I imagine will finally be reunited with his wife, because drama and I'd rather their love remain unfulfilled, first due to propriety, now due to philosophy) and will step down, leaving her clan to her daughter or somepony else she feels comfortable with it.
Then I'd like her to grow into an old maid, never finding love again. Not because I particularly dislike her, mind you, but because tragedy.
Abstaining from politics, she'll retire to read books and, eventually, write one.
Oh, but if you're asking about the tactics to be employed in the war, I don't particularly know. I could stipulate, but I make predictions based on characters and story structure, not what could logically happen next, since people are rarely logical to begin with.
Like... I could see Swift Blade suggesting raids be staged against earth pony settlements to obtain food, particularly targeting those that are providing for the enemy (because he is anything if not economical, opportunistic and ambitious... not deliberately evil, but maybe not one that is particularly honorable given he was the first to suggest cutting Shadow out of meetings and seems to have spearhead this whole rebellion to begin with), and Steel gruffly agreeing due to it being practical, even though it's distasteful (another not-evil pony, but one that is utilitarian and strives to act rationally but decisively). I can't see Rightly agreeing, though, and he's the commander. Unless they are on their last legs and they are literally risking troops starving to death, he would probably stick to having their troops, at most, raiding supply convoys specifically for unicorn troops. He's soft-hearted, plain and simple. Really, I imagine Brightly will often be the one dragging his hooves to stall each escalation in the war... perhaps thinking about all the ponies he's turning into widows and widowers as a result of a war he agreed to start. I can see Bright agreeing with Rightly and outright stating neither she, nor any of her Chargers, will engage these pretty-much defenseless farms no matter the farm's allegiance. She wants to fight worthy opponents, not sink her spear into cowering farmers. I think it unlikely she could imagine anything more unpleasant and would openly state as much, probably telling off Swift and Steel while she does so. That they will wait until the food is with soldiers in a convoy before raining their spears down upon them.
With the vote down to Cyclone Kicker... well, I don't know him all that well. He could reluctantly go either way since, while deeply loyal to the pegasi, he is also driven strongly by his emotions and his sense of what is right. He's turned into a bit of a philosopher in his old age, after all. If I had to guess, though, I would expect him to take a middle ground, stating the troops should be allowed to take from farmers if they felt they absolutely had to and, in those cases, entirely avoided casualties given it only natural for earth ponies to try to defend themselves against thieves (he'd likely avoid the use of the word "thieves"). He'd probably offer an additional stipulation that they never take more than the earth ponies could afford to lose, as he'd rather they unjustly leave many farmer families hungry than a few starving to death.
Anyway, this would lead to some of the more unsavory among the pegasi taking advantage of the order and being needlessly brutal to the earth ponies (but, you know, not killing them), which would lead to further escalation, but again... I just don't see them employing the tactics you suggest without absolute, real need and the voices of reason within the Ephorate being rendered silent.
Maybe that's the problem, here. I see the pegasi in their leadership with their differing personalities, philosophies and moralities... whereas you just see the pegasi as a uniform hostile force that will inevitably fall into a set of logical patterns familiar to you and common to wars for dominance.
(I've only read through Chapter 10 of The Lunar Rebellion so far, but I need to get this idea out of my head so that I can work on other things.)
So I was really starting to hate Shadow Kicker. Actually hate, not "this is a bad character" dislike but a Cromwellian "We're still not telling you where his centuries-decayed body is because we're afraid that you'd still want to defile it" sort of feeling. Reading the story was actually starting to make me dislike much of the present day Winningverse. Then, though, just a short time ago, I was talking with some friends (including swicked), and it hit me. The way that this all makes sense. Yes, Shadow as portrayed is a treasonous idiot from my perspective. The key things, though are firstly that this was not meant to be read from my perspective; it was meant to be read from the perspective of a modern Equestrian. Secondly and more fundamentally, though, is "as portrayed". Portrayed by whom? By Shadow Kicker. Shadow Kicker, who's daughter was a spymaster, who's talent was asymmetric warfare. Who put her beloved Celestia in a position of more of less absolute power, who quite likely dissolved all the pegasus warrior clans other than her own*, who ended up Lady Protector of Equestria, who established a religion based on the worship of herself that was still going strong nine centuries later? The story would have us believe that Shadow Kicker just blundered into all of that, that she did what she had to do in the situation she found herself in. Shadow Kicker as portrayed, after all, wouldn't do and couldn't have done that deliberately. But that's exactly the point. This is a case of an unreliable narrator, of a mare hiding her rise to power and the elimination of her enemies behind a mask of simple heroism. And it worked. Shadow Kicker isn't a hero, but she isn't a treasonous fool, either. She's a magnificent bastard who got away with it, Stalin without the Secret Speech. She is the victor who wrote the history books. And, actually, I'm not sure that I can even blame Celestia for anything here now; I wouldn't be at all surprised if she too was being manipulated by Shadow Kicker. So I no longer hate our protagonist; I am in awe of her and what she pulled off.
edit after finishing Gathering Shadows: Okay, no, it turns out that that was temporary. I still hate her as much, and perhaps more, but I also respect her.
(Yes, I'm pretty sure that this wasn't what the author intended, and I know that I may find something to somehow disprove it in the parts of the story/stories that I've not read yet. For the moment, however, it saves the rest of the Winningverse for me and makes The Lunar Rebellion far more awesome.)
*I can believe this of Shadow more readily than I can of Celestia here, though I imagine that Celestia has also been whitewashed. Seriously, "The clans that weren’t just outright killed off during the war were all forcibly disbanded.” There’s a reason Derpy’s family is just her parents and her brother instead of the massive extended clan that I’ve got, even though the Doos were about on par with the Kickers back in the day."?
"that weren't just killed off during the war were all forcibly disbanded"? To the extent that, even nine hundred years later, they don't have close extended families? Something tells me that "during the war" lasted until there were no clans left.
edit: It really is curious how much of an outlier Shadow is. I can't think of a single other Winningverse character that I really dislike even a little. I may dislike what they do, but villains have understandable motivations and the protagonists, when they make mistakes, are not treated as heroes for it. Even in The Lunar Rebellion, this holds true. I can sympathize with Celestia, the other Ephores, Sunbeam (including in Rise of the Phoenix Empress), Gale, Apple Tree, Danver Carrot, the magnates… even, to an extent, the gryphons. Yet Shadow Kicker as portrayed here I hate, not as a character but as a person, and the only way I can prevent that from spreading to the rest of the Winningverse is to consider Shadow to be a mendacious magnificent bastard readily comparable to Stalin. Very, very odd.
edit 2 (Is it better to make edits and long posts or to make multiple posts?): Really, I think that I would be happier reading the true account of events, the account of the master schemer, the charismatic, brilliant, and amoral (or at least differently-moralled) mare who, for the twin motives of love and powerlust, forged a mighty empire uncaring of the slaughter and treachery, including the destruction of her entire home civilization, of which she was a well-regarded leader, upon which it was built. And then she hid it all, concealed the blood behind a history most definitely written by the victors and masterfully crafted to stand against attempts to disprove it. Nine hundred years later, the empire-by-another-name still stands, her beloved still rules absolutely*, her descendants are still the most prominent name in Equestria's military, still possess their compound in the heart of the government, and still pray to her, and she is still regarded as a hero who did everything she could, sadly too little, to stop the war, and immediately sided with the righteous side instead of falling to the corruption that necessitated the destruction of the rest of her civilization. Yes, that is the mare I want to read about, not this fool who doomed her country through her own incompetence and was hailed as a hero for it.
*Yes, Luna's back, but Luna was granted her throne by Celestia. Celestia could just as easily have executed her sister. While I believe Celestia's motivations and desire to share power to be genuine, I also have little doubt who the country would side with in the event of another conflict. Luna may share rulership, but, at least for now, she does so only because Celestia wishes it.
I'm kinda confused how everyone didn't immediately realize that the alicorn in this picture was the same unicorn to the right of Shadow in the art for The Lunar Rebellion