Future Equestrias - I. Distance Into The Future · 5:13am Nov 23rd, 2015
Introduction:
Unless Equestria is destroyed fairly soon, it will have a future, and the future is an interesting place in which to set stories. The question is, what sort of future?
I. Distance
The first question is, how far in the future are we? Borrowing from science fiction, we can distinguish some categories: I'll divide them into five here.
A. Very Near
This is the future of a few years from now: let's say 1-10 years past the current point of the Show (Season 5, which is YOH 1505 or five years after Luna's Return by my chronology, and maybe 2 and a half years after Luna's Return by the Show's official chronology. The main characteristic of this future is that it is the personal future of the characters we know and love: pretty much everypony who isn't extremely old or ill or die by violence will still be alive. Married couples will have had babies, babies will have become children, children become adults, and adults will have married or considered marriage.
Technology may have advanced (see "Technology" below), culture evolved slightly, but this will basically be the Equestria we know today, with maybe slightly better machines and magic, and bigger populations and extended infrastructure (for instance, that rail line will probably run or be in the process of being extended to what used to be Our Town, which will have more Ponies and possibly a nascent growing economy based around mining and tourism). The stories which we tell will largely be extensions or conclusions of the stories being told today (for instance, this is the time frame in which in my SWSV Rarity's fashion business grows to become "Rarity Enterprises," and in which she and Spike wed).
My story "Her Special Gift" is set in the Very Near Future: it's about Pinkie Pie's attitude toward Cheese Sandwich right after their marriage (specifically, the very early morning after their wedding night). I dated it as YOH 1507, but that's flexible; it'll probably wind up being one year after Show ends for good. The point is that not much has happened outside of Pinkie and Cheese's personal relationship: Pinkie's been wedded and bedded, but life otherwise continues as normal for everypony else, with little change in technology or culture.
A lot of Sketcha-Holic's and Scoots2's work is Very Near Future (and specifically about Pinkie Pie, Cheese Sandwich and Cheese's brother Tomato Sandwich (who Sketch created for him). Both writers have their characters getting married, and introduce their young children as new characters. This character-centric focus is normal to Very Near Future stories -- but it's not the only way to do it.
On my chronology, my tales of Windvane's Rebellion such as Love Amongst Monsters and of the Great Changeling War such as Love Starved and The Fall of Hive Hunger-Prime are all Very Near Future -- but at the cusp with Near Future. I'll go into greater detail about this below. However, note that the Great Changeling War ends in YOH 1515, which is ten years beyond the point at which Show has gone.
B. Near Future
This is no more than a generation in the future, say 11-25 years. Everypony has advanced a generation: old Ponies may be dead or approaching death; mature Ponies are getting old; adults who haven't yet married are worried about spinsterhood; adolescents have gotten married and are having children; children have reached adolesence or adulthood, and a whole new generation of children have been born and are growing up. Society has started to notably change: new magics and technologies have been developed and are beginning to affect the culture. Populations have shifted, new roads and railroads have been built, new industries appeared (and old ones started to fade). The change isn't much as of yet, but there should be some, unless the intent is to portray a static civilization. Political and diplomatic situations may have shifted a lot.
A story which is technically Very Near Future can have more of the feel of Near Future or even Mid Future if there has for whatever reason been a lot of change. For instance, if I set a story in AD 2025, but in 2020 there was a global thermonuclear war, it would have a Near to Mid Future feel because of the tremendous social changes which would occur in consequence.
In terms of the Shadow Wars Story Verse, both Windvane's Rebellion and the Great Changeling War, despite the fact that they are only 7-10 years in the Show's future, have the feel of Near to Mid Future stories because of the very rapid advances in military technology resulting from Luna's reforms (which she first starts thinking about in All the Way Back). The wars are largely fought with rifled firearms and explosive shell firing artillery, with advanced weapons including high-performance military jets and atomic bombs. This is unique to my verse and is not a reasonable standard level of progress for a mere decade or so (It happens, specifically, because both Celestia and Luna have access technological knowledge many centuries in advance of the society they are ruling). My model here is 1632, which is about 1990's level technology being introduced into the world of the Thirty Years' War.
Another term for Near Future is "Next Generation," because that's literally what it is. In terms of storytelling, the heroes of the original story will either be considering retirement or have been promoted to levels of authority in which they are the commanders or patrons of the new characters who actually go out and put their flanks on the line. Because in adventure fiction Authority often equals Asskicking, they may well be incredibly powerful should they join in the fight (which they well may for an especially-important battle), but the main adventures will be had by new characters -- some of whom may literally be their children or the friends of their children.
One reason for this is that the older, more experienced characters have undergone most of the growth of their character arcs. Uncertainities and self-doubts have been overcome; One True Loves met and won (or lost); secret powers and hidden abilities unlocked. It's not that there's nothing left to happen in their lives (life would be pretty depressing if it worked that way) but it's going to happen more slowly and less dramatically. The storm and angst is now the business of their children, who must go through similar voyages of self-discovery as did their parents.
An exception to this is that some older characters may undergo "midlife crises," in which they wonder if they have taken the right path, and consider new ones. This can lead to anything and everything from affirmations of the worth of their life to incredibly bad choices that lead to disasters. In the main series, right now, Discord is an older character undergoing a midlife crisis, in which he has been questioning the relative importance of personal freedom and reliable friendship, and is becoming a more morally-constrained character as the price of becoming a less-lonely one.
What distinguishes the Near Future from the Very Near Future is that the characters have undergone major changes, and the lineup itself has changed importantly. What distinguishes it from the Mid Future is that culture and technology haven't yet changed very much.
C. Mid Future: More than a generation but less than a century in the future, this is a future which is still recognizably the world of the past, but in which there has been major cultural, demographic and technological changes. Entirely new magics and technologies have been developed and put into general usage, resulting in significant cultural changes. Politics and diplomacy are now very different, though there will be points of similarity.
26-100 years is enough time for a complete or near-complete turnover in the character lineup. Only immortal characters will be physically unchanged; mere mortals will have grown very much older, and many will have died. My Little Pony: Frienship Is Magic includes some true immortals, and also some very long-lived characters, including some Earth Ponies whose great vitality allows them to live to great ages (Granny Smith is according to my chronology 113 years old right now, and she dies due to extreme physical stress induced by the Changeling invasion of YOH 1513, aged 121; her kinsmare Pine Apple is two and a half centuries old as of YOH 1505 (though she's also almost blind and semi-crippled).
Nevertheless, a Mid Future story is far enough in the future that many old or mature characters will have died; young adults will now be old or mature; children will be mature adults; many new children, adolescents and young adults will have been born. The few characters who are still around from previous times will be living memories of a past which is now firmly part of history.
Two of my current stories, Twelfth Equestriad Interview and "Audience Reaction," are set in the Mid Future (specifically, YOH 1548, which is 43 years after Season Five). You will notice that some characters are immortal but are hardly unchanged: for instance, Rarity has married Spike, Ascended to become an Alicorn Princess, and her business has grown into an international corporation. Some characters are not immortal, and they are getting old and in some cases approaching death -- for instance, Trixie is dealing (badly) with the likely-fatal cancers afflicting her beloved Piercing Gaze.
There have been major changes in infrastructure. Equestria has developed interplanetary spaceflight and is colonizing the Solar System. The Castle of the Two Royal Pony Sisters has been rebuilt, and a new Everfree City is growing around it. Ponyville is now a large town. A network of superhighways has been constructed and Ponies drive high-speed motorcars. Again, the technological change was accelerated by the Shadow Wars (and help from the Paradise Entity's vast database, which contains the combined knowledge of the Age of Wonders and the World That Was Lost), but in 43 years we would have expected to see some technological change anyway.
The culture has also changed. After the Shadow Wars has come an age of widespread (but imperfect) peace and national prosperity. Ponies now live in luxury and security compared to the way things were four decades ago, and they are starting to get softer; a bit more decadent. This is an old story in the history of civilizations. One question posed is whether the newer, softer generations of Ponies will be able to live up to the heroic legacy of their past should a new crisis come.
This is enough time that a Singularity may be approaching or occurring, if one is possible in the milieu. In regular science fiction such a Singularity would consist of biological immortality augmented by cybernetic personality backups and enhancements both mental and physical. In the science-fantasy world of Equestria this might also include things such as universal Alicornification or merging with mystical concepts. Singularities represent awesome opportunity but also tremendous dangers to the culture undergoing them.
D. Far Future: One way to conceive of the Far Future is that it is far enough in the future that the political and diplomatic alignments of the present are now part of the historical background. This can be conceived of as being, roughly, "centuries" in the future -- think 101-1000 years.
Across such a span of years, only immortal characters will still be alive. In the Show's present, the only living characters who lived in the Far Past who still affect the present are Celestia, Luna, Discord, Sombra (both Evil and Good flavors), Tirek, and possibly Chrysalis (in the Shadow Wars Story Verse she's only a few centuries old, but she may be older than that in vanilla canon). Certainly, the heroes will be an entirely new lineup. Any old heroes who have survived into this era will be legendary beings of tremendous power.
Unless we assume a very static society, technology will have advanced and culture changed to the point that many aspects of life are no longer recognizable. Compare the world of 1500 with that of 2000 -- that's the scope of time we are considering here. Some human civilizations have been this static -- there were half-millennia of the Egyptian Kingdoms across which there was only minor cultural and technological change -- but most have not. If a Singularity is possible, it will probably have occurred and the new world will be entering a Post-Singularity age. Alternatively, the Singularity might be difficult to spark, and it's happening right now.
This is enough time for new cities to be founded and grow to great size; formerly major cities may have shrunk and died. In the world of 1500, New York City had not yet been founded, and Timbuktu was a vital trading center. This is also enough time for whole new societies to have been founded and grown to greatness: America, Canada and Australia were all barbaric wildernesses in 1500, and Russia was still solely west of the Urals. Empires may have risen or fallen, possibly more than once: in the period between 1500 and 2000, for instance, China fell to the Manchus, rose again as Manchu China, fell to the impact of Westernization, and rose again as Red China.
I have as yet no stories set in the Far Future, but by YOH 2000 the Solar System will have been densely settled and Ponykind expanding out through the Galaxy. New races will have arisen: not only will Changelingkind have fully passed through the Reconciliation and become famed as friendly symbionts rather than feared as treacherous parasites, but the New Flutter-Ponies will have appeared. The cultures of both Equestria and her daughter cultures will have changed considerably in various directions. This is the start of the period I consider in the Poniternity.
E. Very Far Future: This is millennia in the future -- say, 1001 to 10,000 or more years -- far enough in the future that all known polities have probably fallen at least once, though some of them may have risen again (consider the histories of China, India and Persia in our world). Cultures will have changed out of all recognition. Several technological revolutions have proabably occurred, and the basic means of production is likely very different.
For instance, in my Poniternity, the Paradise Culture -- remote descendants of the Ponies of the World That Was Lost -- operates great starships called "Carriages" which are essentially vast mobile arcologies, engaging in planetary and stellar engineering to tap the energy and matter of the Universe and reconfigure it into forms which support their Ponies in inconceivable luxury and pleasure. Their leaders, the Aints and the Ascended -- the future developments of the Paradise Entity and of the Party Ponies -- have augmented themselves into minds of a scope and capability literally beyond the comprehension of the Ponies of Equestria ~ YOH 1500.
I as yet have no stories set this far in the future.
(further entries will discuss different approaches to cultural and technological change, and utopian vs. dystopian elements)
I've noticed that some people think that whatever Generation Five ends up looking like is going to be the distant future of the Equestria we see here.
3562995
That might be a fun series, especially if this were explicitly the case so that there were call-backs.
You definitely need to look over this blog. The first few sections have some cut-off text and wonky tags.
As for the actual content, a very helpful rundown of the temporal scope for planning stories set in the future. Thank you for it.
You missed a bracket on one of your tags, there.
3563202
Fixed the typos. I'm glad you liked the content -- I was aiming to write a guide to types of futures, based on my background in science fiction.