Generic Likely Equestrian Future · 1:28pm Jan 11th, 2021
This assumes a vanilla Equestrian future, rather than the specific one of the Shadow Wars Story Verse, though some of the comments apply to my SWSV as well. Generally, the SWSV Equestria advances faster than this, as can be seen by reference to the noted story.
***
Equestria is mostly a free, prosperous and dynamic culture, which is at the time of the Show at roughly a late 19th century level of general technology (late 18th military, mid 20th medical), with spreading industrialization, mechanization and electrification. With that in mind:
50 years later: Early 20th century general technology. All cities and towns electrified, with power grid starting to spread out into the countries.
Road engines (motor trucks and cars) in common use among middle and upper classes; starting to spread to lower classes (though motor cars will never be as popular among Ponies as among Humans). Large airplanes beginning to supplement airships for fast service.
Assembly lines in common use in factories. Considerable increase in national and per capita wealth. Radio in common use, television starting to come in. First computers under development.
Military technology now includes repeating rifles, mechanical gatling guns, large caliber steel cannons, ironclad warships. Medical technology at early 21st-century levels, including antivirals and advanced anti-carcinogenic therapies. Life expectancies increase.
100 years later: General technology at late 20th century levels; military late 19th century, medical mid 21st-century equivalent.
Almost everyone on the power grid. Motor vehicle ownership and operation very common; still mostly fossil fuel but electrical vehicles under development. Nuclear fission power plants coming online; solar power under development (in part for ideological reasons).
Information Revolution under way. Factory automation under development. Computers common for both business and private purposes.
Machine-guns, indirect-firing artillery, and bolt-action to semi-automatic rifles. Super-dreadnought battleships and aircraft carriers coming in.
Wide-spectrum antibiotics and anti-virals. Cancer mostly cured. Cloning, genotyping, rapid development of vaccines. Many contagious diseases becoming extinct in the wild.
Space program under way. Orbital flights, both crewed and automated, have been repeatedly achieved. Commo and land sats. Commercial spaceflight and crewed lunar expeditions possible. Uncrewed probes sent to some other worlds in the Solar System.
500 years from now: General technology late 24th century, military technology around 22nd century, medical technology around late 26th century equivalent.
Nuclear fusion and space-based solar power widespread. Antimatter and possibly more exotic power production and storage systems being deployed. Fusion, antimatter, relativistic, railgun and energy beam weapons common.
The Solar System is being extensively colonized. Populous towns exist on the Moon, Mars and in the Asteroid Belt. Probably the first tentative crewed exploration and planting of outposts on very close extrasolar planets is beginning. The special talents of the Five Kinds (including Seaponies and Changelings) are proving useful in these endeavors.
Tremendous resources available from extra-terrestrial mining operations. Robotic factories use these resources to create nigh-endless goods for the benefit of Earthlife. It is an age of prosperity such as Ponykind has never known before.
Artificial sapient races of various sorts are now common. Perhaps Equestria is too enlgihtened a culture to enslave them.
The Singularity has either happened or is close to happening. Biological immortality has been attained; regeneration from any injury and cures for any diseases are cheap and widely available. Some sort of population control is probably necessary on Earth for this reason.
It is possible that full personality backup and restoration from complete destruction of one's body has been developed. The art of personality crafting and editing is being practiced.
Some of these technological developments cause social unrest. Five centuries is enough time for at least one major and a couple of minor civil wars or periods of semi-anarchy to have occurred, though Equestria has probably not actually collapsed yet. Hopefully they were sparing with the Banefire Bombs.
1,000 Years Later: This is a long time: the time roughly between the fall of the Western Roman Empire and the Age of DIscovery. Predictions hence must be vague.
Fusion and antimatter are probably so developed a technology by now that routine equipment is powered by one or both. Major power production is probably accomplished by total-conversion physical singularities of one or another sort.
Sapient Earthlife no longer dies save by extreme malice, as everypony and everycreature is backed up with massive redundancy in information banks. They form bodies as they desire in order to interact with the material world.
Artificially-created sapient races are extremely common and have interbred (by various means) with the naturally-created races. They have full civil rights.
A thousand years is more than enough time for Equestria to have suffered more than one serious civil war, and possibly collapsed. By now it may well be an old and declining power if it's still around, but one with a glorious history, and possibly some future left to it.
Earth has become an interstellar civilization, having colonized a good part of the Solar interstellar neighborhood and taking tentative steps even further out. Just how far they've gotten depends on what sort of drives they've developed.
The Solar System has become densely populated, with almost all suitable worlds colonized. Terraforming and mega-engineering projects have begun and many may be reaching fruition. All sorts of achievements, disasters, wars, and social movements have happened on other planets by now.
And , still, they will be only beginning.
A very interesting point. I can't help but wonder if Celestia herself is involved in their development, especially if we're in a worldline where she abdicated the throne. Turns out that sun cutie mark's good for more than just moving the thing!
The interesting question here is whether magic itself can be externally contained and harnessed as a power source. We've certainly seen thaumic capacitors on the show—both the Bewitching Bell and human Twilight's locket come to mind—but that still leaves the question of energy efficiency, lasting side effects, and humane gathering methods. Mana power almost definitely can't outpace antimatter, but it may have had its time in the sun.
If Twilight's still on the throne—heck, if the throne still means anything—I wonder what she'll think of her tenure as compared to Celestia's.
One very interesting question, at least in the early years, is Equestria's relationship with the human world. Do they minimize involvement between the two worlds, bring Sunset home when they can, and leave the portal a curiosity, or do they embrace the presented opportunities and forge official diplomatic ties? Of course, there are dangers to be had as well as both worlds adapt to the revelation of the other, to say nothing of the potential pitfalls of asymmetrical tech development and potential strain on time-space. But a multiversal society could be even more incredible than an interstellar one.
In any case, fascinating glimpse at what could be if all goes well. Thank you for it.
5433799
Magic being so prevalent in Equestria actually makes the widespread use of fossil fuel noted here strange to me. Unless that's easier to use, or that much more productive than magic, switching to fossil fuel seems inefficient.
Then again, coal is still in use with tank engines. So maybe magic isn't useful in those areas for some reason.
5434834
The main limitation on magic is the shortage of capable mages or requisite Talents. The Show focuses on some very magically-adept and Talented Ponies (and other creatures), but most Ponies have just enough magic to help them a little in life. For every telekinetic as adept as Rarity, for example, there are many who only have about the power and versatility that Humans have with their hands.
There are Ponies who could haul trains (in fact, that's how trains were presumably hauled before steam engines) or run faster than motorcars will be able to safely travel, but they are few and far between. Machines make the equivalent of their Talents accessible to everypony, and vastly increase the per capita wealth of Civilization.
One situation I failed to cover was how magic itself will advance. My guess is that in 50 years they'll develop machines which can generate and employ thaums directly; within 100 years these machines will be compact and cheap enough for general usage; within 500 years they'll be routine cyber-implants; within 1000 years Ponies will have fully merged with such augmentations.
Natural Talent will still help, as a force multiplier.
5433799
Well, in the SWSV, one of Celestia's Talents is for physics, both applied and theoretical. That comes of her being an Avatar of the Concept of Fusion.
(Luna is more of an engineer -- Gravity is simpler but holds things together).
It has occurred to me that Mankind and Ponykind are natural allies, as each race has traits the other admires and partially lacks -- initiative for Man, kindness for Ponies -- and have generally-compatible cultural and moral systems.
Glad to see you post again! Given your earlier possibilities for pony hoof structure/usage, I'd theorize that 1) touchscreen technology surfaces (no pun intended) MUCH sooner than ours did or 2) keyboard design is much, much different. I could see a keyboard made with rows of joystick-type structures. Four directions each, each direction on each stick creates a different symbol. (Maybe eight, for really dexterous users.)
I'm enough of a Star Wars geek that I rebel at the notion of magic being mechanically generated. Harvested from plants and nonsapients, maybe, depending on the in-universe origin of magic... /ponder
I do not know how I missed this blog. It is good. I have 2 comments and caught 1 error. Otherwise, this is great:
Comments:
Error:
Antimatter is store of energy —— ¡not a source of energy!:
It takes energy to make the antimatter. Antimatter is a great store of energy and if the ponies have a K2-civillization, it would be easy and wellworth making the antimatter for fueling interstellar spaceships.