A massive city of (admittedly magical) medieval technology surrounded by winter with a massive famine in the horizon unless something is done. Off to a great start, 'Champion of a Revolution!' May your reign be long and free from your violent execution.

I look foward for how this will turn out. Am I right to assume that, had our protagonist not intervened, things would've gone according to the 'Historial AI' of EaW?

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The butterfly effect can be quite potent when it happens before timeline divergence starts in 1007. (Most nations will still follow their historical paths, but they are not necessarily set in stone anymore).
For the right creature in the wrong place at the right time, can make all the difference in the world.