Online publishing is winning SF&F

Self-published ebook authors now sell 39% of all SF&F books sold by copies sold, and may bring in more money than traditionally-published authors.

(See Oops. Errors in last post. to explain my revisions to Forbes' figures.)

From Forbes, Jun 19, 2018, "Science Fiction And Fantasy Book Sales Have Doubled Since 2010", by Adam Rowe:

After 2009, print book sales in science fiction and fantasy (or SF&F, for short) dropped more than twice as much as most other genres: Print sales across all genres fell 23% since 2009, hitting a low in 2012 before recovering 12% as of 2017. SF&F print sales, however, dropped a full 50% since 2009, and have recovered 0% since. At least, according to the publishing industry's sales tracker, Nielson. The data-cruncher behind Author Earnings believes nontraditionally published authors have slipped under the radar, massively skewing the public's understanding of the SF&F market.

Since 2010, unit sales of self-published and Amazon-published ebooks have grown, and in 2017, they constitute a full 48% of all SF&F sales across print, digital, and audio.

… According to a 2015 survey from Authors Guild, the writing-related income for part-time book authors dropped 48% between 2009 and 2015, while income for full-time authors dropped 30%. But if the number of ebook authors has been on the rise, those authors are likely earning more... self-published authors keep a significantly larger percentage of their unit sales than do traditionally published authors. Indie-published authors may be just 48% [39%] of the SF&F market (and [indy] unit prices average just $3.20 compared to traditional publishers' ebook average of $8.04), but these authors are likely still earning the majority of the profits.

Granted, it might not feel like winning to the typical self-published author. It's still not a viable way to make a living. But we may still get there.

Comments

[Super Trampoline]

Cool to hear!

[Bugsydor]

I really hadn't expected the statistics to look like that.

[PresentPerfect]

Why do I feel like this isn't something to celebrate? ._.

[Impossible Numbers]

It's an interesting development, certainly. Not sure I fully understand the implications of the success of indie publishing: is it chiefly online publishing, similar to Patreon et al? I'm more familiar with traditional publishing, so I'm something of a novice here...

[Nagaina]

Is this Nielson the same Nielson that handles television ratings?

[Trick Question]

5008539
Nielson vs. Nielsen, so probably not.

[Southpaw]

Were there any stats on the overall number of SF&F authors vs. Ebook sales? I'd be surprised if the author stat wasn't significantly higher than it used to be.

[Bad Horse]

5008577 I don't recall any, but you can click on the link & check.

[Mitch H]

The presentation that article was citing. I think this slide is the nut:

authorearnings.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Slide12-1024x768.jpg

And it isn't great news for the genre. Looks to me like total e-book-and-print sales peaked in 2013, and has been on a gradual decline since then.

[Mitch H]

Wait, no. The slide was misleadingly labeled. This is the actual total market: authorearnings.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Slide42.jpg

(Presentation makes the claim that F&SF has more than doubled from around 20 million books a year to over 50 million.)

[TheJediMasterEd]

5008514

Because this:

BAD ROMANCE: To cash in on Kindle Unlimited, a cabal of authors gamed Amazon’s algorithm

[Southpaw]

5008578 I think the original article doesn't quite answer my core question, but it's fascinating stuff. Thanks for the blog!

That said, does anyone have any SF&F recommendations from about 2000, on? Or something you really liked that you feel is worth sharing?

[Bad Horse]

5008714 Some recommendations, based on a very limited reading of F&SF outside ponyfic:

• Frances Hardinge 2017. A Face Like Glass. I think this is a sequel to something I never read, but that never mattered to me. This shows a fascinating fantasy world, an underground society which has a monopoly on magic, forbids anyone from entering or leaving, and is ruled by a gerontocracy of wealthy families who use magic to extend their lives, while most people are very poor factory workers. Imagine Alice's Wonderland ruled by a vampire Louis 14th, with a Harlan Ellison lunatic-rebel, children from a Charles Dickens novel, enough political intrigue for a Renaissance Italian, and of course an Alice. This underground society has such rigid rules for each person that people have lost the ability to express emotion with their faces. The story is about a girl who's accidentally come into this world from above, and can't stop showing her emotions on her face. This is my top recommendation for a recent fantasy novel.
• Ted Chiang, "Story of Your Life". This is the short story that was defiled adapted to make the movie Arrival by stripping out the metaphysical dilemma presented between free will and "enlightenment", and replacing it with a generic romance. It's very good as short stories go, but OTOH it doesn't say anything that Jorge Luis Borges' "The God's Script" doesn't say better, in one-tenth as many words.

I made more recommendations in Review: Best American Science Fiction & Fantasy 2016 .

[PresentPerfect]

5008656
Self-publish! Be independent! Take your destiny into your own hands and execute all the dirty, underhanded tactics the publishing companies would use yourself!

Yeah, it's just one more reason to hate people. And despair at ever being a published writer. :/

[Southpaw]

5008757 Excellent, thank you for the synopses and the recommendations. A Face Like Glass looks amazing—I've just bought it and will start reading it this evening. The others I still have to think about...

[Georg]

5008582 Considering that F&SF makes up about 2-3 of the books total on the average grocery store bookshelf here, I struggle to remain optimistic.

[Southpaw]

5008757 Just wanted to thank you again. A Face Like Glass is a wonderful novel. I love the prose, the setting, the world building, the characters. This is a fantastic, creative story.

[Bad Horse]

5013607 Thanks for letting me know! And, yes, I feel the same way about it.