Feb
25th
2022
My heart goes to Ukraine. I'm doing my part. · 11:24pm Feb 25th, 2022
Not by ignoring.
Not by downplaying.
Not by circle-jerking.
Not by virtue-signaling.
Only through dialogue can we find a solution for the crisis the world has found itself in. Help us understand all sides and find a solution to this conflict. Be part of:
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Bad Dragon · 237 views
· Story: The Ultimate Supreme Administrator
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#Ukraine
#Russian invasion
#World War III
#diplomacy
I appreciate the fact that you care about this conflict and are willing to encourage discussion, but I don't like the tone of your approach.
I don't think people are currently ignoring this issue (though many downplay it for political reasons). I really don't think accusing people of "virtue signaling" (really not a good term—"performative wokeness" is better because it at least doesn't imply that expressions of empathy aren't real and shouldn't be trusted), or "circle-jerking" is a fair or accurate representation of what most people are doing right now. It feels a lot like you're insulting people who genuinely care about the suffering of the Ukrainian people and putting yourself on a pedestal—as though not taking sides in a crime against humanity makes you morally superior (when, to be frank, the opposite is true).
All that said, I joined at least to respond to the lone thread with a bit of context, and I hope that the group can help in some small way. But there is no simple solution here, and certainly not one we can "find" through dialogue on a site for pony fiction.
5639769 Here's the thing, I don't believe that a one-sided solution can be found. Just saying, "Go, Ukraine!" won't make the war go away.
The current 'solution' of everyone in the world is, "I support Ukrain in spirit, but I won't get directly involved." We can all see how that 'solution' is (not) working.
I think we need more understanding and more concrete ways to address this issue.
There's nothing wrong with genuine expressions of empathy, but I doubt that alone will resolve the conflict. More than that is needed.
My goal is to set up a stage, not to personally manipulate people one way or the other.
If you believe cheering for Ukraine can help then by all means, join the group and cheer for Ukraine. You have the stage; offer your solution.
5639806
Reddit is treating the war as though it is a comedy. There are postings of civilians dissing Russian troops. Stuff like The Ghost of Kyiv and videos that show destroyed/abandoned Russian equipment along with outright false information. It all gets mixed in with a really active propaganda machine that Ukraine is running and people posting false information that can get people killed while Reddit freaks out at images from games.....
The Ukrainian military is receiving great numbers of foreign aid in the form of equipment. Poland and Romania are doing their absolute best to assist refugees, including private initiatives. It's heartwarming. Private organizations worldwide are assaulting Russian economy and trying to assist Ukraine in any way possible.
They are receiving high-level equipment from NATO nations, such as anti-tank weaponry, bulletproof vests, night-vision gear... All the cool military toys.
The truth is that Russia hasn't committed half of the mobilized forces to the front line and they're already beating down on Kyiv's doors. Ukraine is desperate and you can have all the equipment in the world. If they can't match the numbers of the Russian army, they will lose. Especially because Russians can just bomb the city to their heart's content. The only thing that can stop this is professional military assistance from NATO, and that is not going to happen. Because that psychopath sitting in Russia's 'golden throne' has his finger in the red button like a James Bond villain.
I watched the meeting at the UN and it was almost comical the way that Russian just vetoed the whole thing like "Lol no". The speech from the Ukrainian representative was powerful, to say the least. But it was a waste of time. As everything in the goddamn UN is whenever one of the security council members are doing dirty.
Of course, I could be wrong. There were military blunders in History, and who knows? Maybe the almost comical reports of incompetent Russian forces outpacing their supply lines, columns of 56 modern MBTs and support vehicles getting rolfstomped, countless fuel carriers burning, downed paratrooper transports, and mass desertions are true.
All I know is that Ukrainians issued Martial Law. 18-60yo old males can't leave the country, families were separated at the lines towards the borders. Meanwhile, Russia hasn't committed half of the mobilized forces to the front line and they're already beating down on Kyiv's doors.
Honestly, I think that NATO's hesitation from directly helping Ukraine is doing more damage than it's helping. Putin doesn't give two fucks and might as well do something harsh if he doesn't have it his way and it's telling China that they can do the same to Taiwan.
Where do we go from there? Probably the same place we would if they help Ukraine already.
But what do I know? I'm just a doctor from a shithole in South America writing pony fanfiction and porn scared shitless that some other superpower can have their way with my shitty country just because they can and nobody is going to do anything about it. Fuck man... The following days are going to decide if we go back to the Imperial Age or if we have actually learned anything.
5640009 I see more and more people adopting your sentiment.
I do wonder, though. If Putin is really mentally unwell as they say and he has thousands of nukes at his fingertips as he does, is poking the bear not equivalent to condemning humans to extinction?
Wars mostly stop when one side surrenders. Do you really see Russia surrendering? I don't.
Personally, I think we should have answered Putin threats with equal threats.
We should have agreed to his terms that Ukraine will never be a NATO member. However, with a condition. If he were to ever attack Ukraine, it would overnight become a NATO member. That's how this war could have been avoided. But it's too late now.
5640049
I think that the real danger of this whole affair is not nuclear war. It is the precedent it sets. The economical sanctions that they have set against Russia have to work. Otherwise we're going to see the whole system devolve back into the 1800s.
Putin isn't unstable. He knows very well what he's doing and he understands the game he's playing. That guy's history is fit for a movie.
The only thing I see ending this conflict is a conditional surrender from Ukraine where they maintain some sovereignty and are forbidden from joining NATO and the EU, but that is already a pipe dream. I don't see Russia forcing them into surrender and not putting a puppet government in there. On the other side, the only thing that is going to stop Russia is a regime change.
The reason NATO stood off was that they, as did the Russian military command, thought that Ukraine would've fallen in two-three days. That is likely why the Russians are having supply problems. And that was why NATO took their sweet time responding... They didn't want equipment to fall on Russia's lap and didn't want to commit to a side. When Ukraine resisted (and it was nothing short of legendary) they saw that it wouldn't be that simple. The problem is that now that they have committed to a side, there is no stopping, because Russia will remember what the world did. NATO's lukewarm response is going to spiral into more conflicts in the future because however many Russians side with Putin, they see NATO's interference as illegitimate. And the scary thing is that this little detail wouldn't change anyway.
So, yeah. Either those economical sanctions work and hurt Putin's supporters enough that they reign him in, or we'll be in a new Cold War. We're seeing History happening.
5640557
EU wouldn't stand for this. More likely, it would just drag on as a neverending conflict.
Every single person in power is pro-regime. It would take an extraordinary revolution to change the regime in Russia.
Here is my prediction. You're the first to hear it because people are stuck in their fantasy world. But I'll tell it to you even though you won't even be able to even conceive it. I hope you'll be the only one who reads this.
Here's what will happen:
Russia will nuke Ukraine.
Yes, you read that right. It's the only logical next step for Putin.
Nuking Ukraine will not be enough to prompt the nuking of civilians in Russia. The retaliation is only set for intercontinental nuclear missiles, but Putin won't use those.
Perhaps the nukes are being set up right now, that's why the invasion of Ukraine was needed.
After Ukraine is nothing but a crater, the cold war will start.
5640560
He won't need to nuke Ukraine because his army is going to 'liberate' it within the month. Of course, I could be wrong and he could use a nuke or two just because he can (or to test Russia's actual nuclear capabilities or OTAN's response). I don't know. I feel like the moment there is a nuke flying everyone will know and there is going to be retaliation.
Honestly, if he wants to reform the Soviet Union like some kid playing a strategy game, using nuclear weapons in his own territory-to-be is just is not very smart. Especially because he's sold the denazify narrative to his people. So, no. I don't think that nukes will be involved for the time.
All the EU really has to do is not recognize the government as legitimate and life moves on.
Going from a nuclear attack it would be much easier to justify a long war, especially because that might get the EU and even the NATO involved. The reason the present war even started though is that Putin can shove Ukraine in his pocket as it is alone with no real NATO or EU support.
I mean, I doubt that the EU would touch this even if they fast-tracked Ukraine's introduction to the EU.
And that is why the sanctions are laboratory of what is to come. If they succeed in annoying the rich and powerful people enough that they reign Putin in, it will be a testament that the 'system' works. And the powerful can change a regime.
Of course, take this with a grain of salt. I don't believe that Putin will stop, even if he wins at Ukraine. I'm not entirely convinced that he will be stopped. But the war in Ukraine is just a first step. It's when he sets his sights in the NATO nations he wants that the shit is gonna hit the fan.
I can't really blame them. I mean, I think that stuffing your head in a hole in the ground is not the answer, but at the same time, people come here for an escapist fantasy. I mean, that is part of the reason I write stuff. I just so happen to like geopolitics.
5640781 It had to come to this, IMO.
Before, Putin knew how far he can push. It was never enough for EU and other countries to go full out with sanctions .
But now they can.
Putin is losing support for this war every day. He needs this war to be over soon, yet there is no end in sight.
The main question is, what does a rat do when cornered?
5640819
Yeah. That is a scary thought. But the sanctions that have been applied to Russia are the harshest ever. I still hope that they are doing enough damage that the rich people that fund his government and keep him in power will do something about it. It doesn't have to be anything dramatic, but something to stop him. We'll see.
I'm also hoping that the structure of the Russian military isn't so out of their minds that they'll allow him to decide to simply use their nukes.
5641026 Only the most loyal ones are assigned to guarding nukes. Don't expect reason from them. They test them to see how they would react. They don't know whether it's just another test or reality. If they're there, it means that they've passed the previous tests. It means they would press the button. It's all up to Putin.
5641036
I don't know if that is true, man. Fortunately. There were situations where nukes were supposed to be launched and weren't. I mean, of course, that was in the past. Governments change and so do the people that work for them. I guess we'll see. I can't say you're wrong.
Reddit posted news from (unfortunately I forgot the news agency, and I can't check it right now) that EU intelligence believes Putin is gonna eat a bullet from his own pals in the next seven days. We'll see about that too.
Truth is that the future is literally up in the air.
5641160 There were mechanisms in the chain of command in the Soviet Union. Putin abolished those mechanisms. Those closest to him say that the sole decision to launch nuclear missiles is in Putin's hands.
When Putin gives the order, it's just another test out of hundreds of tests for those below. They will pass the test as they have passed all tests before (else they wouldn't be there). They will only realize that they have destroyed the world after its destruction.
Putin ruled for 20 years. Ranks are based on loyalty. Those closest to them are the most loyal. And even to them he talks remotely these days.
What you're saying is equivalent to saying that Russia would never attack Ukraine. Yet here we are.
What you're saying is nothing but wishful thinking.
5641161
It's not really wishful thinking. What will happen will happen and that is it. We will have to deal with it. Period. I'm in a comfortable position because of my profession and I've learned since my thirties that worrying about stuff you can't change only makes the present worse without any effect in the future. What I'm saying is what I think will happen.
Anyways, I admit that you may be right. Again, we'll see, but the argument that Putin's been ruling for 20 years is a solid one and also that ranks are based on loyalty.
5641169
Are you a miner, 10 kilometers underground? I envy you.
5641170
Lol. I'm a doctor.
Although, considering that Venezuela is buddies with Russia, I may be overestimating that.
In the end, it's gonna suck for everyone, and there may be no way back already. All because of one guy. Really shows how fragile everything was to begin with.
5641173 We all knew Putin was going to grow old. It was only a matter of time.
What worries me most is that Putin might have realized that he's growing old. If you want to go out with a boom, what's the biggest boom one can achieve?
5641178
Ain't that the truth?