The Shifting Tide of Employment – Follow Up · 11:22pm Sep 27th, 2019
Hey there readers! Sorry for the lateness of this post. I just wanted to get a bit more work done on Axtara: Banking and Finance before I had a work shift tonight. But speaking of work, remember that post I made about two weeks ago about how employment as we know it is soon going to shift completely as increasing automation quickly overtakes everything? The one where I pointed out it’s already happening and only accelerating, and we need to figure out how we’re going to adapt to it?
If you don’t, or haven’t read it, than you really should. Not just because it’ll give some needed context to this post, but because it may bring to light some things you didn’t know or realize and should probably be thinking about. It was called The Shifting Tide of Employment – The Sci-Fi Future is Already Here. It produced a lot of talk in comments here and on other sites where it was linked, because most people don’t realize how swiftly this change is moving. It’s not “when will it come” because it’s already here. Which is kind of the point of the post, along with a note that in my personal opinion, as a culture and a society we are not prepared in the slightest for the magnitude of change this will bring.
And then yesterday, things shifted again. In my first post, or at least in one of the comments, I compared the coming of automation to be an avalanche that’s already started. We can’t stop it, but we need to figure out how we’re going to weather it. It can be a good thing, or a bad thing, but we need to make those decision now, not later. A video someone mentioned in the comments (and I’ll link it again in this post for good measure) compares us to horses looking at the car and wondering if it’ll ever replace us.
Yes. The answer is yes. And this week, we moved a step closer. Take a look at this video from Boston Dynamics:
Ah, Boston Dynamics robots. So creepy, and yet so intriguing.
And yeah, the current system as I understand it is not built for the robot revolution. So-called entry-level jobs that you're supposed to take to get your foot in the door and learn about the stuff you're really there to do are also the easiest to automate. A friend of mine went through law school and passed the FL bar exam, only to find nobody wanted to hire him when they already had software that could do entry-level lawyer things anyway. So now he's a brilliant guy with an expensive degree and nothing to do with it.
I'm not really certain how we as a people should deal with the evolving situation. Universal income? Retraining? Studying what really needs humans to work? Reviving cottage industry?
I just hope I finish my degree before the situation I wrote a vignette about comes to pass.
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I've misplaced the article, but I was reading about how jobs that have added automation (of course) automated out the easy, low-stress stuff first. So, that of course means that humans have to do the high-stress stuff. But since we've replaced (say) two people on a four-person team with automation, you've just doubled the stress on the remaining two! They don't have any down-time work to do in between stressful tasks anymore, so it's all stress, all the time. Humans don't deal with that very well. It leads to burn-out and all sorts of medical and psychological problems.
And that's if employers decide to keep full-time employees. Instead, they could let each human keep doing the same amount of stressful work, which is half the previous workload (time-wise). So we could just cut their hours in half instead. Oops, you're part-time now. No benefits for you! Don't like it? All those people put out of work by automation would be happy to take your place. Don't let the door hit you on the way out.
So it's not just a work-quantity issue, but also a work-quality issue. More stress, fewer benefits. Don't bother thinking about how cool it would be to work with a bunch of spots. You'll be far too busy putting out metaphorical fires to interact with them.
I am one of the few who work in the automation industry, actually, and have been keeping up on industry things on a whole as a hobby. Started teaching myself computer programming when I was quite young, and when I hit 18, started working in a machine shop with both manual and computer controlled machines (lathes and mills). I am also one of your few patreon supporters ;)
14 years later as a machinist, and a bit of a production specialist/junkie, I've had people over the years ask me all kinds of things, some of them having quite a bit of money. Just two weeks ago me and a friend were at a local event and got to talking with a construction company owner and he wanted to follow up with a personal meeting about setting up a fab shop, throwing out a number on the order of a million dollars; just today I followed up with his secretary actually... maybe something will come of this, maybe not, but the bible verse that comes to mind:
https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Proverbs+22:29&version=NASB
I'm not writing this to brag or anything. Far from it. I do mention the above as sort of my ID card to show credibility for some of the things I'm about to say. Before jumping in too much, lets jump back in time a bit... There is nothing new under the sun, right? (That was another Solomon quote from Proverbs, heh). So lets see some of the things that have happened in the recent-ish past.
Copy/printing machines and personal computers were big, bulky, and made entire fleets of people who made their money from typing documents on typewriters out go out on strikes to try to prevent such machines from going in the business office so they could keep their job. Under Obama the American car manufacturing companies were failing and "had" to be given emergency money to keep such companies going. People were gong on strike because they wanted more money and the car companies could not keep their margins high enough to pay out what everyone wanted.
In both of the above examples, those people did indeed end up losing their job, but what most people don't talk about is what happens to both parties after the fact. In both cases the total number of jobs available actually increased, and not by a little bit either, giving the American worker more job options with more higher pay options to boot. The companies who automated workers jobs, as you pointed out, ended up making more money too. Don't think "oh, I'm eventually going to lose my job", instead be glad "oh hey, I'm going to have more job options and will probably end up making more money than before".
Automation is a conceptual tool that has been in constant development since the fall of man. Without automation, societies fall. This is because automation is a concept to build better tools that make life easier and to be more creative with. When life is easier, people move on to the next tool to make it even easier than before. This has been happening for thousands of years, quite literally, and all that most people think is "oh no, I'm going to lose my job".
The idea/concept of universal income is... quite stupid. The people who work to make life easier will not be able to work on the next thing to make life even easier. No amount of automation or tools or robots can do this for the human. At least that will be true for the next 30 years or so. It is conceptually possible for an AI to do this, but such a thing is still at least 30 years out, if not quite a bit more. Micro-optimizations for a specific set of inputs are the perfect thing for AI, like modern car computers (ECU's). AI's, machines, and robots just can not replace the big picture stuff. Like I said, its all part of the toolset to make life easier.
Back in July I wrote a little article about high-volume manufacturing and my favorite video that sort of illistrates how much effort goes into such a thing is the steam controller facility... I guarantee you those people setting up the equipment and keeping the machines going are making quite a bit of money.
Just keep in mind that with an increase in automation, there will be an increase in jobs. If there is less jobs, that means the local society is getting ready to fall.
I do love answering questions about this topic and related topics too, so if there are any questions, just remember:
derpicdn.net/img/view/2019/9/25/2153118.jpeg
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Quite frankly, that's all bunk. The menial brain dead stuff, at least for me, stresses me out... heh. When it comes to working with robotics, the machines just need babysitting... doing stuff like dumping in plastic pellets to keep the hopper full for the injection molding machine, or changing out the plastic pellets for a different kind of plastic. Not to mention making sure the machine is making good parts.
There are certainly more high-stress jobs too, but that is just because there are more jobs in general... the ratio stays about the same. The higher stress jobs tend to be the really complex jobs, like setting up the equipment for the first time, or fixing a broken machine. Those higher stress jobs tend to pay a lot more though. If somebody does not like it, find a lower stress lower paying job.
People need to learn that no matter how good they are at playing the current game, they should always be prepared to play the next one, or they'll get left behind. I bet that when some guy in Mesopotamia came up with farming, a whole bunch of hunters and gatherers complained about their jobs going out the hole in the cave wall (the window not having been invented yet). Then, of course, they found other jobs, which were only possible in a world that included farming (jobs like building villages in one place, leading to the construction of more-or-less permanent homes with walls, and eventually leading to the invention of the aforementioned windows).
I guess the tricky part is figuring out what the rules of the new game are going to be, so that we can be ready to play it when it arrives (I bet that Mr. Window Inventor's peers didn't anticipate windows and were quite surprised at their new ability to see outside from inside).
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Ouch! Thanks for sharing that one. I know a lot of people who think that any problems are "well, you're just lazy/wasted a degree in something useless." This'll be a good one to shake them up with!
Hopefully he finds something, but it raises a question of where senior lawyers will come from if there are no more junior lawyers being hired!
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I can see this (as well as Tiwake's opposing stance). Given how to the bone my current job has been cut, I wouldn't be surprised to see this sort of thing happen a lot of places. Not because it's the smart thing to do, but because it's the quickest, easiest way to save money.
Basically it's slash-and-burn management under a new approach. Same style though.
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WHOA! Cool! I am grateful for your experience with things! Also, very grateful for your support. This month, Patreon may literally be the only reason I don't borrow money from home to make ends meet (it's tight right now). How are you enjoying Sunset: Stranded by the way?
Ultimately, I'm all for this next step in automation. I agree with a lot of folks who say that it'll be more impactful than the invention of agriculture, actually, because it really does have the capacity to be game changing. Does it mean UBI and endless hedonism? Well ... Hopefully not that latter one. I'm not sold on UBI, either, but I kind of see where people get the idea of it. Maybe a drastic change in the price of goods? Something where human minds take over the parts that we really excel at, like arts and invention. Machines can help with those, even
a true AI, but we need that spark sometimes.
What worries me though is how many people I see trying really hard to pretend this wave of change isn't coming. Like the truckers in the first article on this I wrote, actively denying that the change was coming at all (when it's already here). That's the recipe for failure. One reason I realize author was the path for me was because you can't really automate it: Even AI written books are just awful (but hilarious for all the wrong reasons).
But I know a lot of folks who keep insisting "Nah, this'll never happen" when it clearly is. Newer jobs will spring up, I believe, but that doesn't do the Luddite who doesn't know of them any good. And if the change happens fast enough, an uneven and reeling market could really do some damage. Given we're already unstable in some other areas, well ... I think there's cause to be a bit worried.
By the way, you're going to love a few chapters in Jungle that hit on some of this stuff. And I love the opening of Gears 4 where you're walking through a city that's been constructed by robots in just a few weeks (Jump to 4:53).
Totally reading your article now.
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That's the real challenge: Seeing what the next game is. And right now? A lot of people have no idea, and they're doing the Luddite thing living in denial in the hopes it won't happen. I really don't want to see (random number here) 70% of the US end up like the Luddites personally. It's time to realize the future is changing, and we can't count on things to stay the same!
I'm all for automation, but we need to be ready for it.
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There's reason to expect that this wave of automation will have a lasting societal impact. We're reaching the point where employees aren't fungible, as there are qualitative differences involved.
Put bluntly (and avoiding politicized talk of identifiable groups, please, let's keep it to the average individual), you must have a rough minimum intellectual capacity to succeed in certain fields. No level of retraining is going to let most people compete in an industry which requires an average level of capacity one standard deviation above their own. If you automate away the jobs which permit people of below-average (or even average!) capacity to provide for themselves, they can't just "learn to program" as the recent meme suggests.