The Many Philosophical Musings of Gummy the Alligator

by Ironskull

What Might the Future Hold? S1E1-2

“Gummy! You'll never guess what just happened!” cried Pinkie excitedly, bouncing up and down in front of the diminutive gator sitting on her bed.

Of course I will never guess. Out of the seemingly infinite possible situations that can potentially come into existence from the universe simply continuing on as though driven by gears in a machine, it is incredibly unlikely that I will happen to guess the one which you are referring to. Admittedly, context can help immensely to narrow down the possibilities, but I do not perceive any particular context at this moment in time that might be relevant.

“There's a new pony in Ponyville! I was so excited that I ran off before I could get her name, but I'm still going to throw her a welcome to Ponyville party! It'll be a surprise party!”

Suddenly, Pinkie stopped bouncing and put on a thoughtful expression.

“Rrrrright as soon as I figure out where I can throw her a surprise party and be sure that she'll find it. I mean, nopony comes to Ponyville just passing through. The only reason anypony would come here is if they intend to stay long enough for me to throw them a party, at the very least. And the Summer Sun Celebration is tomorrow, so I guess it should be no surprise that Ponyville is getting visitors!”

Suddenly, Pinkie's eyes grew wide. “Actually, now that I think about it, it's kind of lucky that we haven't had any other new ponies in town. I mean, you would have thought that there would be so many new ponies here that I wouldn't have time to throw them all a party and I would have to throw them all one big party instead! But nope, its just this one new mare so far! Do you want to come with me and help get everything ready?”

Gummy stared back at her.

“Great!”

---

“Hey Applejack!”

“Guh! Pinkie! Where the hay did you come from?”

“From Ponyville, silly! Have you seen that new mare? The purple unicorn?”

“Er, yeah. She was here just a while ago.”

“Great! Did you happen to catch her name and/or where she might be staying?”

“Another welcome party?”

“Another welcome party!”

“Er, well she said her name was Twilight Sparkle, but ah don't have any idea where she is staying. Sorry.”

“No need to apologize, you have been most helpful! Thank you for telling me her name! Oh, and Gummy thanks you too.”

“Er... He does?”

“Yep!”

Gummy chose this moment to surface out of Pinkie's voluminous mane and peer at Applejack in such a way that conveyed that, yes, he thanked her.

Applejack stared back, unsure what to say.

“Well, I guess I'll have to ask somepony else where Twilight is staying. It should be easy now that I know her name.”

Applejack coughed into a hoof in an attention grabbing manner. “Actually sugarcube, she did say that she is the supervisor for the Summer Sun Celebration, so maybe ya should ask the ponies putting that together. They'll probably know.”

“Great idea! I'll be back as soon as I can so that I can give you your invitation! I would give it to you right now, but first I have to figure out where the party is.”

“... Fair enough.”

It is too bad she can't she predict where Twilight is going to be with her Pinkie sense. It is only able to predict immediate events, and even then, it doesn't predict nearly everything. Sometimes I wish I could predict the future like she could..

Gummy's eyes grew a little wider.

Actually, because of the clear relationship between cause and effect, it is possible for anyone to predict some basic events based on what is currently occuring. Maybe it is possible for one to become sooooo good at it that they can predict anything! And once they are able to predict anything, they can use their knowledge of the future to manipulate events into a favorable outcome!

But wait! In order to do that, you would have to predict how the future will carry out without your own interference first because it is only after one has predicted the future that one can plan for it! But that plan would change the future, thus rendering the original prediction almost useless! But it should still be possible to predict one event, before any further predictions become invalid.

Maybe that is why Pinkie is limited to immediate events.

But what if one was so smart that they could predict the predictions too?

But it still wouldn't work because they wouldn't predict the effects of their predictions of their predictions!

But what if one was so smart that they could predict the predictions of the predictions?

...

“Exuse me, Mayor Mare, can you tell me where Twilight Sparkle is staying during the Summer Sun Celebration?”

“Of course. She is staying at the Golden Oaks library.”

I think I can see where this is going. The only way it would work is if one had an infinite ability to predict an infinite number of predictions, which I believe no living being is capable of because they would have to be so smart that their heads would be infitely big. The only way to avoid such recursion would be to not act upon the prediction. But even that may not be enough, since creatures will react to such knowledge subconsciously. Therefore, while it might be possible to correctly guess how a series of events will go if one does not get involved, using logic to predict the future as an active participant should logically be impossible.

“Great! I'm throwing her a party! I already have invitations, let me just put down the location... and there you go! One invitation to Twilight Sparkle's surprise party!”

“Thank you. I'm a little busy tonight, but I will try to attend if I can.”

I suppose one might be able to predict the future with magic. Unfortunately, I am a humble and mundane gator, and know nothing of such things. I cannot reason with that which I do not understand, and so this trail of thought must end here, as it is not a path that I am capable of walking down.

At this time, Pinkie began bouncing away. The mayor never did realize that Pinkie Pie was carrying her toothless baby alligator in her mane the entire time that they talked.

Perhaps I was impolite for neglecting to greet her, but if she never knew I was here, she can't possibly get upset with me. And I think I can be forgiven for having other things on my mind. After all, I was engaged in a very intriguing contemplation about the futility of predicting the future, and I can't predict what detrimental effects might result from a lapse in concentration.

Comments

[Ri2]

Don't worry Gummy, I'm sure you'll learn how to see the future someday.