Keeping an Eye on H7N9 · 12:04am Feb 16th, 2014
I was debating whether or not to include this as an extra chapter of Flu Season, but since that's against the rules, I figured I'd just tag the story.
Though the story of Flu Season is over, the viruses of which I spoke of are still an international threat. For instance, in January a woman returning from China brought the H5N1 avian flu to Canada. She was admitted to a hospital where she later died after being declared brain dead. This is the first case of the bird flu in North America. But let me make something clear; the virus did not spread and all of her contacts were checked and deemed infection free. There is absolutely no risk to the Americas because of this incident, but it should still be a wake up call. Given the fact that this virus has extreme difficulty transmitting from person-to-person (as of today) and yet it still managed to reach Canada should show that just because we're on the other side of the world, we are not in some fortress. To me, this says that had a virus that was as easily spread as the seasonal flu were to emerge in China, it'd be here before we could react. We used to think it would be at least two weeks before an Asian pandemic reached America's shores, but this has convinced me that if a virus were to spread easily, it would be here in a matter of hours or days. Basically, it would be here before we even knew the pandemic virus existed. 
Each of these dots represent an international flight on a day to day basis. All it would take is one passenger to become a new country's patient zero.
Here is more information on Canada's first case of avian flu.
CNN
CDC
CBS
CIDRAP (More on brain complications)
Despite this new case of H5N1, it is not my primary concern; H7N9 is much more attention worthy. Over the past few months, the number of infections with this virus has exploded. I'm honestly having trouble finding an up to date number on infections and deaths, but from my last check, there were roughly 350 cases with 70 dead. This number is expected to rise significantly. Now, I know this doesn't sound like a lot, but let's look at the time frame. H5N1 has been around since 1997 and has infected over 600 people, H7N9 has been around for a little more than a year and infected 350. Now what you need to keep in mind is, with every new infection, this virus is better suited to cause a pandemic, and all it would take is that one case to set it all in motion.
Now, the mortality rate is much lower for H7N9 (20%) than H5N1 (60%), which I take some comfort in. However, let me remind you that the Spanish flu of 1918 had a 2% mortality rate and turned into the most devastating pandemic in history, leaving 50 million dead. The World Health Organization said if it had struck today, 350 million could die. It doesn't take long to see that 20% is nothing to sneeze at. If only one third of the population were to become infected, we could see as many as 300-500 million dead. In other words, one out of every nine people would be dead. However, this virus' high mortality rate may lead to more infections. You see, a pandemic burns itself out when there is a large number of people who have already had the illness, and built up an immunity. If the disease kills a significant amount of those infected, it may take longer for the number of immune people to finally be high enough to bring about an end to the pandemic. So the number of dead could look more like 400-700 million. Perhaps more, due to areas with little to no medical services available. Though the entire world would have little to no medical services after the hospitals are full. As you can see, the number expected to die in any pandemic is highly questionable, with multiple variables at play.
Speaking of the mortality rate, we've noticed that the H7N9 virus tends to infect and kill the old and young more easily. This could be good if a pandemic were to emerge, since it's possible that the mortality rate could drop. However, there is one thought that is troubling me. If this virus is infecting these age groups because they're more easily infected, is it possible that once this virus gains the ability to spread easily, infecting all age groups, that it could mirror H5N1 and target the healthy and young? I'm just worried that if it is only infecting the old because their more susceptible, is it possible that it's mortality rate will rise when all age groups are susceptible. Think about it. It kills in a similar way to H5N1 by turning the immune system against itself, and flooding the lungs in an attempt to kill the virus. If it's only killing the weak because it can only infect the weak, what happens when it can infect everyone? What happens to people whose immune systems are stronger, and would induce a stronger response? Would this help keep them alive, or lead to much more death than predicted? Until this virus enters the pandemic phase, we just don't know which way it will go.
So what do I suggest you do as of now? To begin with, you need to have at least 20 N95 masks for everyone in your family. A few months ago, I got a box of 120 for 40$ on Ebay. It's important to get these now because when a pandemic hits, you'll find everyone is sold out. Next, just gather things you'd need for any emergency. Food, water, first aid, simple stuff.
Now, here's my honest opinion on H7N9. I've always been fearful of H5N1, but comparing the two, H5N1 doesn't have a chance. There are too many H7N9 cases too quickly. There are sometimes reports three or more cases some days. All it would take is one of those cases to be infected with seasonal flu, and the next thing you know, we have pandemic H7N9. So do I think this will become a pandemic? Yes, if it continues at this rate, but when it will occur, I'm unsure of. It could have already happened and we just don't know yet, or it could be another decade or two. But right now, there are just too many cases popping up for nothing to happen. And from what we've seen, this is one of the fastest mutating viruses ever witnessed. So, just take a few extra precautions. I'm not saying buy a bunker and hoard food, but just take some simple steps now, just encase.
Here are some of the latest news articles on H7N9.
Bloomberg
CIDRAP
South China Morning Post
Time
NY Times
We all gonna die!
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