In all honesty, who would you think would win an actual full blownout war? Lunars or Equestrians? This is a theoretical simulation where the stereotype of Lunars being stronger and Equestrians being weaker will now be put to the test.

Place your bets and arguments.

Once a simulation begins, other members won't be able to add another simulation, instead they would argue for or against that simulation.

Be creative. And don't say just because (A) is this (A) will win. Be reasonable in your theories

What timeline are we talking here, cause this could go many ways?

Standard MLP FIM, I would say it would be a draw, don't get me wrong, I love the NLR, but we would end up wiping eachother out.

It depends heavily on when the civil war begins. Luna escapes from her sister when she first revolts, and is able to mass forces? Anyone's game, though I would lean towards NLR just because on her own Celestia needed the Elements- with time and resources to prepare and keep her sister from getting them, I think Nightmare Moon is more powerful.

Though I would say this; if Luna is able to conceal herself from Celestia, (inside a void or ethereal alicorn plane perhaps?) she has the potential to dominate a conflict over a period of time. With her ability to dreamwalk, she is likely the single most powerful intelligence asset in history. Add to that the fact that she can MANIPULATE dreams, and she turns into one of the most formidable enemies imaginable. Think of the morale asset she would be, if she can alter the dreams of her enemies and place doubts or fears as she see's fit. She could even directly weaken them, all from the dream plane- if she creates nightmares so terrifying that the enemy constantly wakes up, she can create active and aggressive sleep deprivation within large swathes of the enemy troops.

In a straight conflict- political system vs political system, no demigods to be seen, Solar Empire wins. It just comes down to resources and supporters. The entire initial basis of Luna's rebellion was her sister being seen as the more powerful- because everyone was asleep during the night. Beyond cultists, thestrals, and her small contingent of lunar guards, she just DOESN'T have the ponies either for troops or logistics. Solar already has the might of the state behind them- along with most of the population and the much larger and active Royal Guard. That doesn't even count resources- besides power, Luna would basically be a homeless leader- think mujaheddin Bin Laden- whereas Solar's have full access to the Royal coffers.

The other thing- all of that is predicated on this being an open revolt with at least some measure of popular support, and a state structure. The other possibility that I see, still built from the show, is Luna retreating with her small collection of followers to somewhere else. I see two scenarios from this-
1) Luna and her followers embrace asymmetrical tactics- basically she damages morale while her followers do terrorist attacks or small ambushes until it's just not worth it anymore. Or if it's anything like the modern world, Luna and the NLR wind up fighting a decades long guerrilla war against the government, with neither side really winning or losing.
2) Luna raises an army from neighboring states. The griffons and dragons come to mind- both have strong warrior cultures, both are either not friendly with or actively hostile to ponies, and both have a lot to gain from invading pony land.

The only other thing I could think of that might help Luna is to call up some racial sentiments- these might have actually still been a bit raw when she rebelled. I don't think it's ever been made clear what the sisters were before ascension (I've always head-cannoned Luna as an infant unicorn) but whatever it was, she could call on them. Unicorn, take back control. Pegasus, Gain control. Earth, get level with the rest.

Which is all a lot to say that in a straight fight, ignoring the deities, NLR probably loses.

And I think that is long enough. All of that is stuff that needs to be considered, and that is a VERY narrow scope, and that only applies to a few options that are based on a successful brake from Celestia during the actual show. When and how this rebellion began; before canon, after canon, during the show run. WHY the break actually happens. These all play huge factors on how this would go. Is the rebellion right after Celestia was mindraped by changelings, or after she gained a third Alicorn ally in Twilight?

Basically your prompt is too vague.

7024578
Well I expected that many would say the prompt is vague to happen so here it is.

Everything starts in the Royal Sisters Age. Luna does not turn Nightmare Moon but instead recieved support from her followers. Unfortunately theses are ethnic races that Equestrians hates. Conflict begins and by the end Luna departs from Earth.

Their technology Evolved at the same rate, until in the end of the 20th century a conflict breaks out in the Lunars, most noticably because of (1) citizens who starts to get phobic of feeling 'trapped' inside the done (2) the racial imbalance and other stuff. Basically a 13 terror war begins when some Lunars manipulate gunpowder from fireworks and it's state vs terror. Eventually the state wins over the terrorist but now they have advanced their tech.

Eventually for an unknown reason that you could imagine could be anywhere from water crisis to just wanting to return, the Lunars plan to return, around the same time when in Canon Nightmare Moon arrives, plus the years they stayed in Equestrians before their initial departure. For whatever reason Blueblood or somepony screws things up or something about Equestrians telling lies about them is revealed and the Lunars go back offended with a water crisis still Happening. They go to the Crystal Empire (or at least the Cold North. Whether you all want it to exist there is up to you) to mine the ice and set a small Outpost. Tension rises as Equestria sees their privacy broken and this as a sign of war begins to mass, 100 to 1. And then ... War.

Now first, how far would Lunar tech be and how far could Equestria tech go as well?

7024636
Well I expected that many would say the prompt is vague to happen so here it is.

Everything starts in the Royal Sisters Age. Luna does not turn Nightmare Moon but instead recieved support from her followers. Unfortunately theses are ethnic races that Equestrians hates. Conflict begins and by the end Luna departs from Earth.

Their technology Evolved at the same rate, until in the end of the 20th century a conflict breaks out in the Lunars, most noticably because of (1) citizens who starts to get phobic of feeling 'trapped' inside the done (2) the racial imbalance and other stuff. Basically a 13 terror war begins when some Lunars manipulate gunpowder from fireworks and it's state vs terror. Eventually the state wins over the terrorist but now they have advanced their tech.

Eventually for an unknown reason that you could imagine could be anywhere from water crisis to just wanting to return, the Lunars plan to return, around the same time when in Canon Nightmare Moon arrives, plus the years they stayed in Equestrians before their initial departure. For whatever reason Blueblood or somepony screws things up or something about Equestrians telling lies about them is revealed and the Lunars go back offended with a water crisis still Happening. They go to the Crystal Empire (or at least the Cold North. Whether you all want it to exist there is up to you) to mine the ice and set a small Outpost. Tension rises as Equestria sees their privacy broken and this as a sign of war begins to mass, 100 to 1. And then ... War.

Now first, how far would Lunar tech be and how far could Equestria tech go as well?

7024872
Not one part of this scenario believably allows for a Lunar victory. Solar holds all the cards, in numbers, tech, and everything else. If you wanted to really mess with things and force yourself to imagine a Lunar victory, I suppose the argument would be brutality. If Lunar return is at the same time as the show, and assuming the world matches the show at that time, Lunar's would still have many of the ideals of the olden times, plus their experience dealing with murderous terrorists. And after embracing friendship and peace, we've already seen how 'effective' the Royal Guard is in most instances... if Lunars act like the olden times, wage true war against an enemy that places Friendship on the highest pedestal, and are able to secure the elements before Solar forces do, then I could see an NLR victory. Friendship neutered the capability of Solars.

7024925
About the tech part, sure Republic has a problem of 1:100 or 1:10 if we were to be kind, but look at the real world. Germany vs Russia in which Germany nearly won while Russia had so little tech. Sure they got American support but in one v one Germany could've won.

Question would be is how advanced would you think Lunars would be compared to Equestrians and will it be enough?

7024465
i say what timeline and such play in effect, ie is the Luna's pony more tech base which I betting they are and if they left alone let say 1000 years to grow in power I say the win, if it going with when nightmare moon first show up then I say they be close to even.

7024991
Well it's a thousand years but like Equestrians they never faced a reason to make military weapons as there was peace. That peace though would be shattered in the end of the 20th century by a civil/terror war and thus military tech would begin to increase, which would give them the initial Advantage of greater tech early in the case of a war between Equestria and Lunars. But in your opinion, just how high could they get? Say they at least get to WW2 tech. Can they go even further or will they be stuck there. And what tech can Equestria make in the period where the tension begins to rise between them before war truly begins?

7024872
sound very much like this story The Thousand Year Change in idea that luna nad her pony are else where living in domes and have to deal with equestrians cause of water supplied and food supplied. and yes blueblood mess everything up cause his view them as monsters. though twilight was born with luna pony and was luna's student
luna ponys do have high level tech compare to the equestrians ie luna pony are using nano bots, plasma base power while equestrians just figure out steam power. it a good read

7025001
Ah yes. My friend Amf also has a VLL story that someone commented was similar to that what you said. We could look into other simulations that could potentially happen but in reality, what would be the real outcome? Having a nation completely destroying another gives little to no plot so which scenario is the most likely and also the most plot rich story

7025025
agreed but, how luna is in that story plus her pony is how I see any group of her pony will be like if left alone somewhere safe for while. in most story I seen few that they may be, the NLR has always been more tech base and advance then others but with less pony, I can see any war tend to go with NLR have fewer number but better tech then equestrians, wile the equestrians would have overwhelming number but not as advance tech. so it come down to the old, tech vs numbers battle.

7025081
Well what would you're opinion be for Luna if she basically was pleading to her sister to intervene (before the departure) on behalf of her citizens, Celestia though is still engorged in the public praise (as some stories make) by her people and decided that they will sooner or later settle it themselves. Luna leaves and comes back, only to hear about reports that they found legends and lies about them, that they were all monsters. What would be her characteristics then?

Amf says she will refrain from attacking initially, but any more offensive from the other group will receive war.

I would say it depends in a story way at the beginning where Luna was trapped in the moon she could’ve split and took her supporters and made her republic in secret and when 1000 years past then that would be up for debate. I believe lnr wins due to most likely morales she would have her troops ready to kill or disable while solar would go for disable i believe but my opinion could change due to either choices in the war or the split