The Skeptics’ Guide to Equestria 60 members · 79 stories
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Walabio
Group Admin

Destruction of Praxis has polluted Union of Soviet Socialist Republics' ozone so badly that the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic has only 50 years remaining without diverting resources from its significant military expenditures.

Oh wait, that was the Klingon Empire.



In the Group about Ukraine,
is some confusion about the cause of the dissolution of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. This is not surprising because we have a campaign of misinformation in the United States of America claiming that Ronald Reagan overthrew the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.

When Brezhnev succeeded Khrushchev, The Soviet Union entered a period of Stagnation. When Gorbachev took command, he started many reforms. Hardliners, did not like the reforms, so tried to seize power in a failed coup. The Soviet Socialist Republics, fearing a return to Stalinism, seceded; thus, leaving no Soviet Socialist Republics in the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. This became official by the end of 1991.



Dissolution of the Union of Socialist Soviet Republics

Bad Dragon
Group Admin

7695624 I imagine something similar will happen to Russia after the war. How many countries do you think Russia will shatter into in a year or two?

Walabio
Group Admin

7695655

It could disintegrate into individual Oblasts.

Bad Dragon
Group Admin

7695659 46 then. Sounds about right.

I hope they won't share their nukes. That would spell trouble in the future.

Walabio
Group Admin

7695660

They probably will sell the weapons for a million Euros per warhead of 10 million Euros for complete missile with MIRVs (Multiple Independent Reentry Vehicles) to any maniac with the money:

Bad Dragon
Group Admin

7695678 I have an idea that would work out for the good of everyone.

You know how Ukraine keeps saying that after the war, it will want some guarantees for its safety? And you know how Russia owes Ukraine billions of $ for destroying its infrastructure?

Well, if Russia gives all its nukes to Ukraine, it will pay a fraction of its debt to it, and at the same time, Ukraine will have its guaranties. Also, with so many nukes, Ukraine will be in NATO in no time at all, giving it extra guarantees.

I think it's a great idea. Somepony please inform Putin about this so that he can make this happen in the backend.

Walabio
Group Admin

7695685

The Russian Federation will not give to Ukraine nuclear weapons.

Bad Dragon
Group Admin

7695733 How else will Russia be able to guarantee protection for Ukraine? Without such a guarantee, Ukraine won't stop the war, even if Russia begs them to. Ukraine knows that if they stop now, Russia will just come back at them a decade later.

NachoTheBrony
Group Admin

7695733
7695801
Personally, I see it as next to impossible for Russia to fracture in a million pieces. I think what we will see now is a revival of the Cold War: Russia will largely retire from the World stage except for shows of strength every now and then. Their biggest issue is that China, their biggest ally, will now make every effort to put them down as well.

My biggest question, though, is if the Russian oligarchy will tolerate this. What I've been reading says that they are in a chockhold, with Putin jailing oligarchs who talk back and seizing their assets. I predict they are already conspiring, then they will sponsor massive protests in a few years, once the economic closure really gets felt, and a coup will happen shortly after.

However, lets talk about hypotheticals: we all know that Ukraine will win the current war, regaining all of its lost territory from the previous war. And, truth be told, why would they stop there, rather than pushing into Russia? And well, the only powers had by Russia are the power of numbers, and the power of the atom. Nobody with a shred of common sense wants to use the atom, and the Russian numbers will be as effective as they ever were in the early Second World War: useless cannon fodder. But the biggest risk to Russia isn't Ukraine, or the West, but China using the confusion to launch a land grab from the Altay prefecture to the Kara Sea, annexing more than half of Russia. Of course, it would be extremely foolish unless Beijing had learned how to deal with a nuclear rain, but truth be told, I wouldn't be surprised if they have. And it isn't like the People's Liberation Army had absolutely anything to fear from the Red Army.

Bad Dragon
Group Admin

7701120 Sounds like another North Korea in the making.

Walabio
Group Admin

7701120

> "However, lets talk about hypotheticals: we all know that Ukraine will win the current war, regaining all of its lost territory from the previous war."

It is too early to tell. The Russians certainly screwed up logistically:

The Russians believed that the Ukrainians would realize that they are outgunned and surrender in days so figured that their vehicles, such as tanks, would not need resupply. President Zelenskiy refused to leave the country. The Ukrainians figured that if Zelenskiy believes that this thing is winnable, it must be and kept fighting. Russian vehicles, such as tanks, ran out of fuel, thus allowing the Ukrainians to capture them. By March, Ukraine, despite TankBattleFieldLosses, had more tanks than when it started. This shows the importance of leadership and logistics:

In Afghanistan, as the US withdrew, the leaders hopped onto planes and fled. The military figured that if the leadership believes that it is helpless, it must be helpless and surrendered to the Taliban.

NATO always hopes for the best, but plans for the worst. NATO always has a way to resupply its forces. Sure, it is great if the enemy surrenders before our vehicles run out of fuel, but ¿what happens if the enemy refuses to surrender and our vehicles run out of fuel?

It is too soon to tell who will win. The Ukrainians have the Home-Field advantage, will the Russians have the numbers.

> " But the biggest risk to Russia isn't Ukraine, or the West, but China using the confusion to launch a land grab from the Altay prefecture to the Kara Sea, annexing more than half of Russia."

China gutted the leadership of it military during the Cultural Revolution. In 1979, Vietnam defeated China. I would not be so sure.

7701131

> " Sounds like another North Korea in the making."

During the reign of Stalin, the Soviet Union was a nearly self-contained economy, with terrible famines.

About the movie I linked, ¿could you imagine what it would be like to see that disturbing ending for the 1st time? One simply had to be there in 1968. 1 of the reasons the movie works so well, is because of a Pandemic:

In 1968, we had an influenza-pandemic. We can not shut down everything for 1 death, but we cannot let a pandemic wipe out humanity. The threshold for action was 1% fatality. The deathrate was about 1%, but since it was not definitely over 1%, we did not reach consensus about what to do; so now, we did nothing.

Charlton Heston got the influenza, he go so sick that his Doctors feared that he might die. After recovering, when he returned to the set, he looked like hell. This was exactly the right look for Colonel Taylor after the abuse he experiences in the movie.

Charlton Heston went onto star in the movie the Omega Man, a movie about a Pandemic of Vampirism.

NachoTheBrony
Group Admin

7701131
7701202
Check this out, guys. I was completely ignorant of the upcoming global wheat crisis.
https://fb.watch/dGu7fb_bgb/

Walabio
Group Admin

7702620

Unfortunately, this video does not tell me anything that I did not anticipate to the point of knowing:

Certainly, Putin with fuck with Ukraine every way he can; he is a sociopath.

NachoTheBrony
Group Admin

7702961
Thing is, this is not "fuck with Ukraine" material: this is "lets piss on the entire Arab World" material. And who knows how far the ripples will go, considering that this was a poor year for the global production of wheat without counting Ukraine. I'm just thinking right this moment about the Bimbo Corporation, the Microsoft of baked goods: global logistics will have to shift. Was Putin responsible for the fact that today I made myself a burger in a bun smaller than the patty, while it was larger last week?
Global Anti-Russian sentiment will last decades, at best. And Russia will regress back to Stalin's Soviet Union, only receiving commerce of stuff the world needs and they have a lot of (which would mean oil, but means that less and less as Europe becomes more and more renewable, then Europe will begin subsidizing renewables in countries that would still buy from Russia just to further punish Putin), and through China, who will stay neutral just for the commercial opportunity, but will become a lodestone on Russia's neck. At worst, though... the Great War was fought for less.

So... I don't think Putin has enough braincells to be a sociopath. This is all undoing thirty years of progress for his country. Unless he's so much of a sociopath that he's counting on doing the Kim Yong Un routine: he will be reported to have gout while his country suffers a famine.

Walabio
Group Admin

7703334

¡Ah ha! I see the problem:

Putin only cares about staying in power. If he causes a famine killing hundreds of millions of people, screwing over Russia in the process, as long as he stays in power, he if fine with that. ¿Did Stalin care at all about the suffering and deaths he caused?

NachoTheBrony
Group Admin

7703366
Personally, I'm more adherent to the hypothesis that Putin did this because he was diagnosed with a terminal illness. Especially so considering how little preparation he performed. If he had won, it would have been a high note to end his administration (and life), and as he lost, he won't need to suffer the humiliation for too long.

Walabio
Group Admin

7703390

I wish that Putin should just hurry up and die already.

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