Hello Aussies and friends.
As some of you may know the NSW state election is just over a month away.
I'd like to know (New South Welshman or not) you're predictions on the result.
Let me break it down for you:
LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY
We have:
42 Liberals
19 Nationals
Currently forming Government. Led by Mike Bierd.
23 Labor
Currently forming Opposition. Led by Luke Foley.
And:
1 Greens
8 Independents
Forming the Crossbench.

LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL
We have:
12 Liberals
7 Nationals
Forming Government
14 Labor
Forming Opposition
5 Greens
2 Christian Democrats
2 Shooters
Forming the Crossbench

So...
Predictions?

EDIT: We're all friends here. Respect other people's opinions.

4111017

I hate to bring politics to MLP because it's only going to begin fights, but...

I'm going to bet on Liberals. God help the country if Labour gets back in power again.

Personally I think that losing the past two state elections prior the Liberals are in a bit of trouble. There's definitely an anti-liberal sentiment around the community (even from some strong supporters have noted their dissatisfaction).
I think they're in for a beating.
I think however they might hold on.
Labor will no doubt gain seats in both houses.

Greens are a mixed bunch. To my knowledge they lost seats in the last state election. I think due to the Libs bad national performance they may gain some more however.

Christian democrats I think are set to lose at least one seat since they're boss said "the only man [in the Sydney siege] was the guy holding the gun" (paraphrased, look it up: here ).

The Shooters and Fishers are pushing for a third member in the upper house. I think they'll remain with two however.

For the record: there's no factual basis on any of the above. That's just my speculation based on what I perceive to be the current political landscape.

4111017

I'd say another loss to the Liberal-Nationals, following Queensland, Victoria and South Australia.

I'd say minority government, Labor backed by Greens/Independents.

4111026
I love politics. Can't say I'd want to be a politician tho.
I think the Mike Bierd hasn't been in much controversy unlike Barry.
So I'm speculating he could hold on to NSW.

4111036
Yea sorry. I was watching a political talkshow and the idea just came to me.

4111053
Oh boy a hung parliament.
Is KAP working with the Libs or Labor in the lower house?

Maybe if you'd stop winning Origin we could get out of an Australian cold war

Sorry to hear your government is in shambles. Maybe they'll pick up their game?

4111017 What is NSW's level of dissatisfaction with the Federal Liberal Government, and Tony Abbott in particular? That will play a huge factor in how the election plays out. Abbott can't get involved for fear of his toxicity bleeding into state issues as we saw play out in Victoria, nor can he stay away for being called a coward, as happened in Queensland.

Being an SA local, I haven't kept up with how things are over there, but here, Abbott and Co. are highly on the nose. If we get snubbed on the new submarine contracts, as is looking likely, SA will join Queensland in near open revolt against the sitting government. Abbott made an election pledge to build the 12 Collins class replacements at the ASC, but has been doing everything he can of late to play down or back out of that pledge. While it is in no way official yet, many people believe that he has already struck a secret deal with Japan to build the subs, and that the current tender process is nothing more than a smokescreen to cover up that deal.

Regardless of anything, I suspect that there will be a large swing to Labour in both houses. Maybe not enough to topple the Assembly, but Queensland's election proved that simply having a large majority doesn't mean anything when the ballots are being cast.

4111083
My sentiment exactly.
Damned if you do; damned if you don't.
I personally don't think liberal will lose the assembly but they will definitely take a hit.

My predictions for the council is:
Greens will rise.
Christian democrats will fall.
Shooters will stay the same or rise.
Liberal will fall.
Labor will rise.
And the Outdoor recreation party (formally allied with the Liberal Democrats(LDP) ) will change their name to the LDP NSW and might gain a seat.
Agree or disagree?

4111083
Lel double post.

Personally sorry to hear about the subs.
I'm hoping to join the ADF further down the line and I'd much rather know my fellow service men/woman be in an Australian built sub then a foreign one.

4111677
I suspected KAP were more towards liberal then Labor.
I guess we'll see what happens.
I'd also like to declare: yes we won last time.
But not the nine times before that.
Conclusion: if the current trend holds, us NSW blokes will win once a decade.