1 heuristic is the preponderance of evidence. We have a chance to watch that playout now:

Leeann Tweeden claims that while rehearsing for a skit, Al Franken kissed her openwouth with tongue and groped her. Let us suppose that Leeann Tweeden is truthful and remembers accurately. We have 2 possible interpretations of events:

• Al Franken believed that Leeann Tweeden wanted to go all in for authenticity; so therefore, this is an unfortunate miscommunication.
• Al Franken is a sexual predator.

It is human nature to fear standing up to those in power, but when 1 individual does step forward, that gives others the courage to do so. If Al Franken is a sexual predator, other women will step forward and by the end of the year, the preponderance of evidence will be so strong that he will resign. If this is a simple 1-time miscommunication nothing will happen. Either way, we shall know by the beginning of 2018.

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Let us suppose that Leeann Tweeden is truthful and remembers accurately.

That's a curious assumption, given that the incident in question is 11 years old, and Leeann Tweeden has a motive to bend the truth: She is on record voting for George W. Bush, while Al Franken is a Democratic senator. It is not sensible to assume without question an accurate memory, nor a truthful recounting.

If Al Franken is a sexual predator, other women will step forward and by the end of the year, the preponderance of evidence will be so strong that he will resign.

Or more people will step forward who disagree with him politically and have learned through the news cycles of the last few years that accusing someone of sexual harassment can get them removed from their position even if the case never goes to court.

I cannot support this end-run around the legal system that liberals have gotten into. Innocent until proven guilty is the most important building block of our justice system; without it, basic freedoms collapse. Accusations are not, and cannot be, evidence in and of themselves; no matter how many accusations there may be. Let the courts decide; that's the point of having them. Mob justice is not justice at all.

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> > “’Let us suppose that Leeann Tweeden is truthful and remembers accurately.’”

> “That's a curious assumption, given that the incident in question is 11 years old, and Leeann Tweeden has a motive to bend the truth: She is on record voting for George W. Bush, while Al Franken is a Democratic senator. It is not sensible to assume without question an accurate memory, nor a truthful recounting.”

I agree with you. It is even worse for her credibility because Republican political operative Roger Stone knew what was coming before it came:

> “Republican political operative Roger Stone told the Daily Caller hours before the news broke that a news anchor would accuse Sen. Al Franken (D-MN) of sexual assault.”

> “Said Stone: ‘Let’s just say Sen. Franken’s time in the barrel is about to come.’”

One almost gets the impression that Leeann Tweeden and Roger Stone colluded and that Roger Stone just could not contain his urge to gloat until after Leeann Tweeden made her accusations as he should have. Frankly, I do not believe Leeann Tweeden.

> “’If Al Franken is a sexual predator, other women will step forward and by the end of the year, the preponderance of evidence will be so strong that he will resign.’”

> “Or more people will step forward who disagree with him politically and have learned through the news cycles of the last few years that accusing someone of sexual harassment can get them removed from their position even if the case never goes to court.”

I suspect that the Republicans will not find more women willing to perjure themselves and the story of Leeann Tweeden will fall apart. By the end of the year, Leeann Tweeden will be disgraced and Al Franken will be in good standing.

> “I cannot support this end-run around the legal system that liberals have gotten into. Innocent until proven guilty is the most important building block of our justice system; without it, basic freedoms collapse. Accusations are not, and cannot be, evidence in and of themselves; no matter how many accusations there may be. Let the courts decide; that's the point of having them. Mob justice is not justice at all.”

Neither do I, but this is a chance to see preponderance of evidence in action. The preponderance of evidence will, before the end of the year, probably support Al Franken and turn against Leeann Tweeden.