Personal Predictions for this month's presidential elections · 4:00am Oct 11th, 2019
Now that we have reached October and its 4 presidential elections (Canada, Uruguay, Argentina and Bolivia) I'll go ahead and dump my own personal predictions of who will win this elections and by what margin. I'll let very clear that I'm not counting fraud scenarios.
Bolivia: on 10 days Bolivia will elect a president/Vicepresident, 130/130 representatives (88 from Evo's party) and 30/30 senators (25 from Evo's party) for the term of 5 years each.
For the president, I think it will go for a second round where the candidate Carlos D. Meza will win against Evo Morales (current president running for a reelection even though the population told him NO on February of 2016); for the representatives*, I think Evo may retain a simple majority or a very big minority, same for the senate*.
*To be a representative/senator in Bolivia, you only need to be 18 years old, have lived for 2 years on the place where they'll be elected and fulfill certain public-service access requirement.
Argentina: Despite everything going against him (polls wise and primary voting wise) I still think Macri will win the elections on the second round and that he'll finally have a [extremely] thin majority both in the senate and the house of representatives.
Uruguay: I think there'll be a second round where the Nationalist Party will win the presidency against the Frente Amplio (the president's party) but I'm not sure of how the Congress will move.
Canada: I think the Conservative Progressive Party of Canada will beat the Liberal Party of Canada (Justin Trudeau) while having a minority government on the Congress while the People's Party of Canada will earn two or three seats. That is all I can predict.
That is my take, I may change the prediction based on what happen through the month. Best wishes everyone.
