Essays Index
Remarked Timelines series: Part 1 - Overview | Part 2 - Sombra | Part 3 - Chrysalis | Part 4 - Nightmare | Part 5 - Tirek | Part 6 - Discord | Part 7 - Flim & Flam | Part 8 - Wasteland

So, did anyone else hurt their brain trying to make sense of all the alternate timelines in the season five finale, cry themselves to sleep multiple times, and then spend years of their life working on an eight-part essay series attempting to explain them? No? Just me? Oh... Okay...

Overview:
Across the seven different timelines that Starlight Glimmer's meddling created, Equestria met seven vastly different fates, each time falling victim to a different villain. While the changes can obviously be attributed to the ripple effect, the exact way that the ripples caused these vastly different outcomes is attributable to a specific series of events. Across all seven timelines, some elements are consistent, and these are as follows:

The Bearers:
First of all, despite the fact that the Sonic Rainboom does not occur when it should, all of the Bearers are still the same characters as before at heart. In every timeline, while they are different, they retain the same cutie marks, as their views of themselves and their destinies are largely unchanged. Even if the circumstances of their discoveries are different, they all eventually find the same special talents that they had in the prime timeline.

Applejack always eventually makes her way back to Sweet Apple Acres and her family, albeit having possibly spent longer in Manehattan than she did in the prime timeline. Pinkie Pie, to have her balloon cutie mark, still discovers a love of parties and leaves the rock farm at some point to end up in Ponyville. Rarity still discovers her love for fashion and ability to locate gems. Fluttershy eventually gets to the ground and bonds with animals somehow. And while a Sonic Rainboom is probably not involved, Dash still ends up with a speedster cutie mark.

Twilight Sparkle's fate in the remarked timelines is the most changed. The trend of the Bearers discovering the same talents with or without the Rainboom still holds true for Twilight, but her life is the most heavily influenced by getting her cutie mark at an exact time and place. Without the Rainboom, she never becomes Celestia's student, and she is the only one of the Bearers to lead a vastly different life because of this. In all of the new timelines, Twilight becomes even more of a shut-in, much like Moondancer in the prime timeline, and this is the key factor that leads to the Bearers never coming together to find the Elements of Harmony.

The villains:
Secondly, which villains become a threat at which time is determined by very specific factors.

Nightmare Moon always returns on the day of the Summer Sun Celebration, one thousand years after her banishment. Her return is dependent on cosmic forces, as well as a naturally weakening seal on the spell binding her to the moon, meaning that her escape is unaffected by any changes caused by Starlight Glimmer. On the other hand, the seals on Discord and Sombra were intended to be permanent. Both of them were only able to escape in the prime timeline because their seals were weakened by the Elements of Harmony transferring to new bearers. This means that in the new timelines, Celestia and Luna should both remain connected to the Elements, and the seals on Discord and Sombra should normally still hold.

Due to Tartarus being located in another dimension from Equestria, Tirek's escape is not affected by timeline changes either. Cerberus leaving his post is not directly caused by anything relating to the Elements of Harmony, and so always occurs at the same point in all timelines. However, Tirek is not a threat immediately after his escape, and he first spends a long time lurking in the shadows and gradually building his strength. His actions after escaping are highly variable, as his circumstances may be drastically different, depending on prior events.

Other villains are even more variable in their course of action, and may not even make a move at all if the circumstances aren't favourable for them.

Queen Chrysalis and her changeling army escaped from the volcanic prison they were in long before the Rainboom was ever a factor, and Chrysalis has been planning her revenge for a long time. However, in the prime timeline, her plan to impersonate Cadance and attack Canterlot during the royal wedding was only conceived after Shining Armor proposed to the real Cadance, and the actual act of replacing Cadance did not occur until shortly before the wedding itself. This means that in the remarked timelines, Chrysalis must necessarily change her plans if the ripple effects disrupt the royal wedding or prevent it from occurring.

The Nightmare Forces also act differently according to circumstances. In the prime timeline, they held back and gathered their strength for almost a year after Nightmare Moon was defeated, before making a revenge attack on the Bearers, particularly Rarity. In the remarked timelines, without the Bearers being involved, these events will never happen. However, if Nightmare Moon is still defeated, then the Nightmare Forces are still likely to make some kind of play at around the same point in the timeline.

Sunset Shimmer falls into this category as well. In the prime timeline, her plan revolved around stealing the Element of Magic, which she knew from her time with Celestia was due to reawaken, but this plan is not viable without the Bearers defeating Nightmare Moon. As such, Sunset in the remarked timelines must abandon her original plan. It is possible she will improvise a new plan if an opportunity presents itself to her, but events on Equestria's side of the mirror are likely to discourage her from returning altogether, and even if she does return, it is highly unlikely that she would have any reason to bring Equestrian magic back to the human world. Because of this, the Dazzlings, Midnight Sparkle, and the other demonic villains never become threats to either world.

Meanwhile, Starlight Glimmer, as well as Flim and Flam, are merely citizens of Equestria. In any circumstances where their lives are not directly affected by the timeline changes, such as when a major villain takes over and turns life in Equestria on its head, they go on with their usual plans. In Starlight Glimmer's case, she founds Ourtown and starts her cult, while Flim and Flam build the Super Speedy Cider Squeezy 6000 and eventually make their way to Ponyville to face off with the Apple Family.

It is also important in Starlight's case to note her special talent. Her cutie mark, that of a falling star, represents a talent for bringing down others, such as how she enforced Equalism in Ourtown by magically handicapping the villagers. Like most unicorns, she also has a talent spell (a spell of a unicorn's own design derived from the magical structure of their cutie mark). Hers is known as "Pieces," and has the ability to remove the vital part of a soul governing cutie marks and special talents.

Pieces is distinct from Starlight's later Equalisation spell in that it does not brand an equals sign mark upon the victim to enforce conformity, but it does have the additional ability to allow Starlight to partially copy the special talents (and particularly the talent spells) of others. By using Pieces on Rarity, for example, Starlight would be able to copy her gem-finding spell without ever being directly taught it. In the prime timeline, it is thanks to Pieces that Starlight was able to become powerful enough to challenge Twilight, as she copied the talent spells of many unicorns in preparation for her revenge. In most of the remarked timelines, Starlight would not have any motive to build such a diverse magical repertoire, but the potential exists in her regardless.

Celestia's plan:
Finally, because Starlight Glimmer's meddling in the timeline is an unnatural change that averts the intended future, she unintentionally foils all of Celestia's original plans for dealing with Nightmare Moon, which were conceived based on prophecy and foreknowledge that is no longer accurate. In the prime timeline, Celestia trusted in fate to deliver her a suitable bearer for the Element of Magic. However, in the remarked timelines, Celestia's visions do not come to pass, and she quickly realises that she will have to come up with another strategy. She has several years to prepare, and considers various options.

Celestia's main problem in facing Nightmare Moon is one of strength, as Celestia is incapable of defeating Nightmare Moon in a straight fight. In addition, without the Elements of Harmony, she has no easy way to exorcise the nightmare spirit from Luna.

Because of these challenges, she is tempted, however briefly, to release Discord and have him do it for her. Discord is much more powerful than Nightmare Moon, and easily capable of forcing out a nightmare spirit, and Celestia already believes that he is capable of reforming and using his magic for good. However, this is also the riskiest possible move for Celestia, as she has no way of controlling Discord once he is freed, and no way of preventing him from starting a new reign of chaos if he wants to. Despite him being Luna's best chance, Celestia talks herself out of freeing Discord, and instead comes up with a new plan.

Celestia's default final strategy in the remarked timelines is thus to assemble an elite team from her Royal Guard, and to overwhelm Nightmare Moon through sheer force and superior numbers. Celestia intends to defeat and capture her sister, and then subject her to conventional mind magic in order to force the nightmare spirit out. In all timelines, Shining Armor is quickly climbing through the Royal Guard's ranks, attempting to prove himself worthy of Princess Cadance, and he becomes captain just in time to lead this team alongside Celestia.

Depending on the timeline, the exact composition of this team may be different, resulting in different outcomes for the fight with Nightmare Moon.

Acknowledgements:
-Starlight Glimmer's talent spell was inspired by a comment by Shrink Laureate, a much smarter person than myself, and is named after the Machinae Supremacy song, "Pieces."