First of all, we all know from Elenwen's report on Ulfric that the Thalmor want to prolongue the civil war in Skyrim. I realize that. However, I want to argue here that a Stormcloak victory would actually be more advantageous to them.

Of course, the reason why a civil war is seen as advantageous to the Thalmor is because it weakens both the Stormcloaks and the Empire enough for the Dominion to take over. However, this assumes that conquering Skyrim is one of their main priorities. But why would it be? Skyrim doesn't have many resources, and it also isn't of particular strategic interest to the Dominion.

However, it is of particular strategic interest to the Empire. Why? Because with Hammerfell's secession from the Empire, Skyrim is the last remaining land bridge between the other two remaining provinces, Cyrodiil and High Rock. Take into account that the Dominion also has the superior navy and effectively controls the Abecean sea, and you will see that a secession of Skyrim effectively cuts off all contact between Cyrodiil and High Rock, or at least all contact that doesn't either have to cross Dominion-controlled seas or independent territories. Trade can still happen, but it will be effectively impossible for the Empire to send military reinforcements from Cyrodiil to High Rock or vice versa.

In essence, if Skyrim secedes from the Empire, the Empire effectively ceases to exist as a political union.

As a matter of fact, there are clues that at least the more high-ranking Thalmor are aware of this fact. The White-Gold Concordat contains two major concessions to the Dominion: The cessation of Hammerfell, and the prohibition of Talos worship in the Empire. It should be noted that the Thalmor already articulated these exact two demands, word for word, even before the Great War. My bet is that the Thalmor knew that the latter point was likely to cause a civil war in Skyrim, and that was precisely why they included it. (Or at least one reason. There are quite a few other good reasons to despise Talos and his worship, particularly if you are a High Elf.)

At this point, we have to ask: How much does Elenwen even know? She doesn't exactly seem to be the most competent person. For the most part, she doesn't even seem to know what the mer under her own command are up to. Ancano's actions are a good example. We also have to keep in mind that Elenwen is only ambassador, probably mid-tier or upper mid-tier in the hierarchy. The question then is: How far do her superiors inform her of their long-term plans? I'd say not far. These things are probably on a need-to-know basis.

Elenwen's report seems to indicate that the Thalmor want to prolongue the civil war indefinitely. But given all this, it is quite likely that her superiors simply gave her the order to prolongue the civil war for now and then wait for further orders. Wearing the Empire out as much as possible is of advantage to the Dominion, but I still think that the Thalmor high command works towards a Stormcloak victory in the long run.

...or at least they should.

5280617

Skyrim doesn't have many resources, and it also isn't of particular strategic interest to the Dominion.

Skyrim is literally one of the mineral richest regions in all of Tamriel, it was one of the very centers of the Dwemer empire if not its capital for presumably that very reason. Besides that, the Thalmor probably still see Skyrim as Mereth, and seek to reclaim it just as much as they seek to reclaim the old Ayleid empire.

Ultimately the Stormcloaks always were just another pawn of the Aldmeri Dominion.

5280617 This is why I hated the fact that you can't get permanent peace between the sides.
Imagine how angry the thalmor would be if that happened.

5280665

it was one of the very centers of the Dwemer empire if not its capital for presumably that very reason.

No, that was Red Mountain.

5280665
The Dwemer had no empire; the Deep-Elves were similar to Ashlanders: numerous clans each with their own sovereignty, rules, and traditions. It was only until not long before they all disappeared that the clans united, and this was only in Morrowind.

There's also the theory that the Third Aldmeri Dominion seeks more than just reclaiming lost Elven lands; the Thalmor also desire to destroy Mundus. The conspiracy goes that the bigwigs in Alinor are purposefully plotting to deactivate the Towers - constructions that keep the mortal plane and Oblivion apart.

Anyway, who knows the Altmer's true motivation. The Imperial Empire is the only nation of Men powerful enough to stand against them. The Nords believe they can act as a bulwark against Elven supremacy, for their ancestors have done so in the past. What the Stormcloaks fail to realize is that Men can triumph over Elves only when a great hero is leading the charge ( Pelinal, Numidium, Ysgramor, and Wulfharth, to name a few ).

5280956

the Thalmor also desire to destroy Mundus. The conspiracy goes that the bigwigs in Alinor are purposefully plotting to deactivate the Towers - constructions that keep the mortal plane and Oblivion apart.

*Bats Peryite on the head*

Bad Kirk cultist, bad!

5280956

the Thalmor also desire to destroy Mundus.

Do you believe everything M'aiq the Liar tells you?