Smashmania: Character speculation

I suggest you clear your schedule, grab a snack and a drink and get comfortable. This might take a while.

With E3 just around the corner, I think I needed to do this before the conference proves me I'm wrong. I'm taking into account the Reddit leak (here's the link if you want to check it out), the constance of certain characters and the possible use of the Smash Ballot. This is a character speculation, not a character prediction. Let me remind you this is just my opinion, I’ve no legit information, I’m just making educated guesses and I’m going to be wrong anyway, like previous times. I’m assuming everyone from Smash 4 is back.

Mario

With Mario, Luigi, Peach and Bowser, we already have all main characters in the game. There are some potential newcomers for this series, but anyone after the main 4 is just an extra, not a necessity. Mario maybe the flagship franchise, but unlike Pokémon, there’s no need of having every extra character. One or two is fine, but when it comes to importance, the four that we need are already here. If Mario is indeed going to be reworked to fit more his Odyssey persona, Dr. Mario has more reason to stay, preserving Mario’s old moveset (just buff his speed and recovery and we’ll be fine). Captain Toad is the most likely of the group, thanks to being iconic and being in the Mario series since... ever and Treasure Tracker appearing in different consoles, as well as his cameos in the main series (don’t worry, he will be able to jump... poorly, though). As for the other two:

Waluigi: Why do people want this guy in the first place? I mean I get it, he could represent the Mario spin-offs and has a lot of potential moveset, but the guy has no personality or charisma (even the Duck Hunt Dog has more personality than him!). Not to mention he only has appear in spin-offs, not in an official game. You might say that’s not necessary since other characters accomplish the same, such as Sheik or Palutena. But those other had at least a supporting role in the story, Waluigi hasn’t and probably never will have. Remain as an assist trophy.

Paper Mario: Lot of moveset potential without becoming a clone, however I’m wondering how much the fans are going to accept his presence. Let’s be real, the moveset is probably going to be more based on more recent entries such as Color Splash and “the one that should not be named”, not from more popular entries such as the original or The Thousand Year Door. It’s probable, but let’s reserve our hopes.

Donkey Kong

I still think there’s a big possibility of having another newcomer. Thanks to Retro Studios, Donkey Kong has made a great comeback in recent years. And the potential candidate is a toss-up between Dixie Kong and King K. Rool. It really could be either of them. Dixie is playable in Tropical Freeze, is part of the Forbidden 7 of Brawl and is another female. She’s almost guaranteed, but there’s the problem of making her a Diddy clone since much of her moveset potential could be traced from him. Plus, I don’t know if a port can be considered as value of relevance. King K. Rool is the major villain of the series, has plenty of moveset potential, is fan favorite, he has everything a newcomer could ask for... except relevance. And this is the main problem for characters from franchises with recent games, the guy hasn’t been prominent in the series for over 10 years, probably because Nintendo is trying to distance itself from Rare’s contributions. I know people voted for him for sure in the Smash Ballot, but we don’t have any real information that guarantees us the Ballot will be used in this entry. The team has already said that they’ll use them for future installments, but how distant that future is, we just have to wait and see. However, the main issue for both characters is that, subliminally, Smash is racist. Every character that has make it into Smash has been Japanese (the only exception being Diddy Kong and solely because he was a shoo-in), so I’m not sure if this rule will be broken.

Zelda

Breath of the Wild Link has open the door for the series to be reworked, so it’s probably will see some form of reworking for Zelda and Toon Link since both need an upgrade to their movesets. As for a newcomer, I firmly believe that Zelda needs another rep, the problem is who. Many have suggested characters such as Impa, Midna, Ghirahim, Skull Kid, the Champions from Breath of the Wild and even Lana from Hyrule Warriors. However, these characters have only appear in one game only (maybe two at the most, but that’s it) and will never reappear again (Sheik has been an exception and has remained in Smash thanks to being originally part of Zelda’s moveset and her popularity among the competitive scene), so I’m not sure how much they could be implemented or if they’re going to stay for the next one. I wouldn’t be surprised if Tingle make it, since he has been more consistent than any previous mention. And no, Ganondorf won’t be de-cloned, if he wasn’t de-cloned in three games, what guarantees you he’ll be in this one? I think he’ll have his own moveset only when Sakurai leaves the franchise.

Metroid

There’s not much to say about newcomers here. If we’re going to get a Metroid newcomer at all, it has to be Ridley, but we all know why he’s a touchy subject and I’d rather not get into it at all. He appears in the Reddit leak, but his sole mention makes everyone doubt the credibility and I already came to the conclusion that if Ridley is not playable this time, then we won’t be getting any Metroid characters at all. There are other potential candidates like Dark Samus, Rundus and Adam Malkovich, but Ridley is the most important character in the series after Samus. It’s important to know for sure what’s going to happen to him first before speculating on other characters. Although I’m against his inclusion, for his supporters let me say: don’t lose hope. I firmly believe he’ll make it into Smash... only and just only when Sakurai is no longer in charge of the franchise.

Kirby

The main problem with a Kirby newcomer is Sakurai himself. He ignores and doesn’t validate modern Kirby games beyond the trophy section (that’s why we didn’t get a Return to Dreamland stage on Wii U despite it deserved). All the material we have is from the games he worked on, from character moveset to stages to music. So, with this in mind, if the Reddit leak is correct, then that explains why he would choose Marx over the fan favorite Bandanna Waddle Dee (and to be fair, although he has moveset potential, Bandanna Dee looks a little... generic). It’s hard for me to say which of these two could make in, but Japan has stated that Kirby needs more reps (America says the same for Donkey Kong and Metroid). This could change in this entry, but only time will tell.

Star Fox

Apart from Wolf coming back, I don’t see any other potential newcomers for the moment. I know Star Fox Zero was released a couple of years ago, but considering the failure it was... yeah, not likely. Krystal is mentioned in the Reddit leak, but considering Zero is (another) reboot of the series and that Nintendo is trying to set apart from Rare’s creations, she probably has low priority despite her moveset potential.

Pokémon

Decidueye is the one people are guessing is the most likely only because we need a grass starter since we already have a Fire-Starter (Charizard) and a Water-Starter (Greninja). The problem with this idea is that the fans are the only ones who invented this theory. We didn’t have Fire, Grass or Water starters in 64 and Melee and the only reason we had them in Brawl is because Pokémon Trainer was a special case. There’s no proof this pattern exists or if matters to Sakurai at all. Besides, Charizard and Greninja were chosen for reasons beyond their typing. Delzethin came up with an alternative: Lycanroc, which has valid points to be included: being Ash’s main Pokémon in the anime, using a form that mixes both forms and having earth bending powers, which is a power pending in Smash. Thanks to this, Lycanroc could become the next Robin. Plus, Ground and Rock Pokémon aren’t that popular in general, so having Lyranroc here is a unique opportunity that may not be repeated again. We could have a Grass Pokémon anytime we want, but not a Rock Type. Remember that Sceptile was heavily requested during the Smash Ballot, nowadays nobody is asking for him. And no, Jigglypuff won’t get cut.

F-Zero

Get another game first and then we talk.

Mother/Earthbound

Although is obvious that this series won’t get another character, I think it needs one. A rep from the first game, but here’s the catch: not Ninten, since he’s so similar to Ness. My bet is on Ana (who fulfills the role of Paula and Kumatora), using different PK powers, maybe with a mix of Lloyd/Jeff abilities. With this, we could get another female character who’s also a girl and a rep for the series that actually plays different.

Fire Emblem

People are asking for Lyn. I get it, she represents the first game that was released outside of Japan and she’s the most popular character in Fire Emblem Heroes... but with already six characters, do we need another one for the moment? Besides, Fire Emblem needs variety, add a character who doesn’t use a sword for crying out loud. People want to cut Roy, Lucina and Corrin. However, each character has a reason to be in Smash: Marth is the first one, Ike is extremely popular despite his lack of relevance, Robin comes from the game that saved the franchise and it has an original moveset, Lucina makes sense to be a clone and it’s extremely popular among the fanbase, Roy is easy to implement, was converted into a semi-clone and is a fan favorite (despite being a low tier in Melee and Smash 4) and Corrin, despite being added to promote a game and being the worst lord in the entire series, has a unique moveset and adds variety to the roster. Others have pointed that the protagonist of Fire Emblem Switch will be chosen, but we have no information of that game yet, so we’ll have to wait and see before considering it for this entry.

Xenoblade

Rex with Pyra or Elma. It could be any of them at this point.

Retro, Miscellaneous and WTF

Apart from getting the Ice Climbers back, it’s hard to tell where we would go from here. People are asking for Wii Fit Trainer and Miis to get cut simply because of their lack or relevance, but both have attachment to Nintendo’s history, have a unique moveset and they’re not really impeding anyone to be included (not to mention, Miis are the perfect excuse to include the stupid requests of Goku, Shrek and all that bullshit). Laboman is considered to be the troll character for this entry, but this is a fan-created character that appeared only months ago, so his appearance is unlikely, same for Takamaru and his lack of popularity among players in general. As for Springman or another ARMS character, there’s a problem with this IP: It didn’t do that well. I get it, it’s a new IP, it makes sense to promote a new franchise, but why would Nintendo want to promote a game that sold mediocre (especially during the beginning of the Switch’s lifespan and with no competition besides Zelda, Splatoon and Mario Kart) in Smash? (Same applies to Isaac from Golden Sun). This is the main reason why The Wonderful 101 wasn’t represented in Smash beyond the trophies and 2 music pieces (nobody is asking for them anymore). I’m warning all of you: if Springman doesn’t make it in this entry, ARMS won’t make it ever. I doubt franchises such as Kid Icarus, Animal Crossing and Pikmin will get another rep.

3^rd parties

Hard to tell. The main problem is, like I said, Smash doesn’t represent western games or characters, so I’m not sure if Rayman’s going to make it. Yeah, he had a trophy, but we’re not sure if this is enough. With this is mind and if the Reddit leak is correct, then Simon Belmont and Heihachi are the most likely. A Konami rep that has been on Nintendo consoles, with a weapon barely used in Smash, moveset potential and whose appearance makes more sense than Snake. Then a second Namco rep that comes from a fighting game and can have the same treatment Ryu had (according to the leak, we could also get Monster Hunter, but considering how Capcom is treating the Switch with the Megaman 11 downgrade and the Resident Evil VII case, I really think Megaman and Ryu are enough). I know people are asking for another Sonic rep, but Sakurai likes to make his choices special. Having Tails or Knuckles or whoever takes away the magic of having Sonic in Smash. Only when the options for other third parties are over, then I think will be ok for having them, but I think it’s too early for that. Finally there’s a group of characters all together that could make it.

Indies

I think Indies will be represented in Smash, however we’ll only get one rep. And believe it or not, my opinion is very different from everyone else. It’s not going to be Shovel Knight or Shantae or Sans or Steve from Minecraft. It’s going to be this guy.

Why? He’s one of the first Indies in gaming history and remember, Smash is racist. Since this game is Japanese, that would be enough. I know it’s not the most justified reason, but I doubt any of the most requested characters mentioned above can make it.

Reddit leak and Smash Ballot

I’ve decided to draw this to a close by giving my thoughts about the Reddit leak and the Smash Ballot and since this blogpost has gone on for much, much too long. I’ll try to keep it brief. I chose to follow the Reddit leak because it has been the most detailed of all. Besides, it corroborates on the information of another leak that pointed out the comeback of the Ice Climbers and the inclusion of Ridley and Simon Belmont. There may still be evidence that not everything it says is going to be true, so let’s take it with a grain of salt. It has been said that the Smash Ballot is going to be use for future installments, but with no information or details about it, I’m not sure if said future has already come or we still have to be more patient. Only when they officially say, then we’ll know.

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Now tell me, what do you expect from the next E3?