Yes, I'm proposing an (almost) impossible scenario: What would peace in the world of Equestria Divided be like? And not just some temporary truce between one of the six factions, but a very long period of true peace in Equestria before a new major conflict breaks out. In this thread, I want to study how it can happen and/or why it will not happen.

Now let's see why a peace won't happen:
• Moon and Star hungers for Unicorn Supremacy and holds a "valid" claim to Equestria as a (somewhat legitimate) successor to the Old Reign.
• Earthborn resents Moon and Star for their racism, their employment of slavery, and most importantly, their magic. And to make the matter worse, their Supreme Commander takes her grudge to a very personal level.
• Stormwing sees themselves as something along the line of "Protector of Equestria". They believe that the princesses will return, and they will make sure order is enforced in their realm until that time comes, even if they have to cut down many of their own kin to do so.
• Whitegold is never anyone's friend. A greed's thirst for wealth and power can never be quenched, and Whitegold is filled to the top with it. Their cunning and devious nature, their ambitions that they are willing to achieve disregarding the laws of morality, just how can these qualities make peace possible, if at all?
• The catalyst for an invasion from the Everfree Tribes is the expansion of the Everfree Forest, and apparently their neighbors don't take lightly to that.
• As long as they are murderously mad, there will be no peace coming from the Cult. Their very existence is an embodiment of terror and violence.

A change may influence the balance of power, but of what would bring Pax Equestria?

There is always more profit in peace than war: down for Whitegold

Unicorn supremacists can become isolationists, creating a space where they have their own territory in which they hold absolute power: Moon and star

With moon and star no longer stirring up trouble outside their own borders, and Whitegold being a merchant faction, there's no reason to go stirring up unecessary trouble. :Earthborn

There is a form of order in Equestria. Nothing as good as what it used to be, but when the Princesses return, they'll know how to fix it. : Stormwing

The everfree is a place all civilized creatures know to avoid, and it in turn knows not to seek out more trouble than it needs. : House Everfree

A good joke is all about delivery and timing. With all the houses looking inward, the true jester knows that she must wait for the perfect moment to deliver her punchline. : Cult of Laughter
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That's how I figure it'd go.

If there could be any opportunity of a peace some things have to happen:

-All houses need to bond together, recognize the treat from the side of The Cult of Laughter and eradicate them. The cult doesn't have any chances to participate in peace no matter what reforms they could untergo. Yet fighting them would be an goal valid enought to unite all other houses. That could end with the death of all cult memembers OR pushing the Laughing Mare's control over the cultists/perzence out of the material plane. In the former case the cultist would rejoin their initial groups inside the houses.

-Whitegold and M&S have to change politics if any peace could be possible. Especially Moon and Stars would need to experience a cataclizm that weakens unicorns alone, so it could revert unicorns from uberponies back to equals in the eyes of philosophy. The other thing to be done is to loose a significant part of the house's elites - scientists and politics alike to weaken the though of magical superiority. After it's weakened the M&S pegasi would use this opportunity to make them even with the pinheads. With this as the first step; the slavery could only last so long. (Whitegold would keep producing rafined, high quality products for the more wealthy individuals of evryone else. M&S would of course be Equestria's liding technopoly, selling their widsom and magic, slowly addicting evryone else to use it.)

-House Everfree would need to stop atacking the rest. They would propably still expand but without fighting: (Everfree would propably gather and sell medicaments and rare plants to other houses. Maybe they would end specializing in medicine?)
_Stormwing doesn't care what grows on their territory. As long as the green stuff doesn't reach their mountian settlements they're be fine. I think an open trade treaty with some of the less warmongering tribes would make them very happy (ending their food and economy problems) and lead to an full alliance in relatively short time. If Stormwing would become traders - it would be their funcion in the united houses as they couldn't ravage others or take stuff by force as they like to do.
_After AJ becomes a True Earthborn she propably will not want to fight against other plants. Expecially after many others follow suit. Earthborn and Everfree should in that case put their diffrences aside and with the Buffaloos as a buffer zone to attenuate any civilian hostilities - they could coegzist beside themselfes for many good years. At some point they will run out of expansion ground for their manufactures/trees but it could pass more than 20 years until so. They would propably manufacture all the advanted goods for evryone as well start with some food after they got hold on the fertilizers and production of fresh water. (liquefaction, unsalting the sea water, effective transport of it from the north; maybe buying clouds/rain from Stormwing)

I think it would take a Deus ex-Machina-like event to actually knock some sense into Equestrian population.
For example I would bet for a Windigo scenario: Heart's Warming Eve all over again. No love, no harmony in Equestria, Windigos come, some house leaders die along the way, until someone actually breaks the curse or Equestria perishes totally.
But let's say someone somehow pulls a Clover the Clever stunt with her/his friends. The act of friendship that shaped an entire nation happens again, and gives them the authority to pull Equestria together again. Hell, if not then at least most of Equestria will like to side with those who stopped the winter triggered by six dumbasses with power that failed to keep it cool in times of crisis.
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Another scenario: the Princesses return. Leaving the details of their actual disappearence aside (The weakest spot of the whole ponyverse if you ask me.) How would they react?
First, they would be utterly shocked to see the state of some sectors of the populace. The introduction of totally unethical and monstruous practices (slavery, death penalty, rape, dehorning, cannibalism, mutarions, necromancy, war, prostitution and a looong etc) that weren't there when they left.
First things first: Taking out Moon and Star. No way Twily would oppose, after all it was for their sake that she did what she did and her devotion to them is still there. Not an excuse for whatever punishment awaits for her, though.
Bad news for nobility and big fishes of the MS house who just preserved their position but never actually cared about Celly and Lulu's fate.
Stormwing would depose its arms just like that. Still, they'll have to answer for their practices.
Same for Whitegold. Doubt their return would made any difference to them, though since they like profit over everything else. The Sisters would deal with them later for their class segregation and greed.
Then we have the other houses: Earthborn, Everfree and the Cult.
Let's not forget that Earthborn was formed out of complete rejection of the Princessess and all they represented before becoming a totaly earth supremacist faction. They may be dealt with total-obliterating force, not before swaying most of the population back to a Unified Equestria, leaving the AJ-led prideful leadership.
Not sure what fate might await Everfree.
Now the Cult...it requires a complete metaphysical (spiritual) approach.

4552919 Your scenarios are the best ones.

4552092
1.) I see otherwise. War profiteering can make one very wealthy. The spies of Whitegold has access to information that are otherwise hidden from plain sight. These information can worth a lot when they are decisive, both on the negotiation table and at the field of battle. Not to mention the fact that war creates shortages on supplies, supplies that only Whitegold can afford to import and export to their "neighbors" at elevated prices.

2 - 3.) Ah, I forgot to add Unicorn magic to Earthborn's resentments. Moon and Star closing their borders is a viable scenario, but what would bring that to be so? If we take a look closely, Moon and Star is the defender whilst Earthborn is the aggressor. Even if Moon and Star decides to take the patient route, Earthborn won't make peace with Moon and Star still, for their goal is to eradicate Unicorn magic from Equestria, becoming monsters that are their nemeses.

4.) I can't quite make out what you're saying for Stormwing there.

5.) And should the Forest wishes to expand itself? The Tribes have no other choices but to follow suit, as disobeying the words of their revered Lady is their equivalent of heresy.

6.) That perfect moment is the moment their audience didn't expect the joke. No one would expect the Cult when living without paranoia in peace and harmony.

4552292
1 - 2.) One of the first conclusions I came up with when thinking about the scenario back then!

1.) Total annihilation of the Cult of Laughter is an unlikely scenario. The Laughing Mare is to some extent similar to a Chaos God in Warhammer 40000. As long as sorrow exist, her influence to the material realm won't disappear, as Laughter is the best medicine. To severe the connection at its core would require something related to the Astral Plane, something that Moon and Star is the closest to after the Cult.

2.) A change in politics have to be slow and steady. A revolution always brings unexpected and unacceptable consequences. Why not start at the beginning? The best I can think of currently is the death of and Cadance taking over. Her leadership will allow ideal reforms to be made efficiently.

3.) That decision rests on the voice of alone. Considering her devotion to what she calls "The Everfree Liege", it is very unlikely she will disobey her master. Expansion without aggression is almost impossible when those territories are far from what should be considered neutral. Also, I imagine some unofficial trading occurring between the Tribes and the rest of Equestria, but not an official one; very interesting scenario to see unfold.

4.) Actually, they have their reasons to care for the ground that is their territory. The Ground Guards are down there, their ground support. Vast expanses of land are ideal killing fields for Stormwing warriors roaming above among the clouds in the sky. A thick forest takes that advantage away.

5.) Now I don't associate "True Earthborn" with plant-life, as I see no relation between the two. Well, sure they leech the soil, but I don't think that should be the main link. Earthborn and the Tribes have a huge difference: one is industrialized, one is tribal, very different. : Clouds as a trade commodity! Why haven't I think of that before!

4552919
"Windigoes" is very possible, but very predictable. Besides, there would be a solid explanation of why they don't terrorize Equestria once more even after 15 years after the first discord (not as in Discord) broke out. Now out of the old comes the new, there is a chance that the new generations will bring changes. The scenario is, "New Generations".

"The Return" is easy to hypothesize and a very good fiction material in fact! The only problem is as you stated, the actual disappearance. Maybe I'll come up with some theories on possible scenarios for the Missing Princesses thread.

4554642 1.-2.) I've might skipped your class, director.

1) I thinked abaut something to just peel the LM from the phisical plain. Once M&S stopped wageing war or anything they propably start searching for new enemies. Maybe they would find it in the form of The Laughing Mare. I mean seriously it's just declaring a crusade, make a way toreach her and wait for results.
Also: when the other houses would stop yanking each other's heads[of states] the sorrow in the realm starts dropping almost instantly.

2) That's actually an idea. I initally thought of a 2-3 years of the changes that lead to peace.

3) Smugglers. Fluffy, Brown Pony Smugglers. #HanSolo #WouldBeProud #SoChewie

4) You really think that Stormwing would even consider reject any offer that could save their unegzistant economy? I think they could melt with the tribes with the territory: Stormwing would take the skies and mountain ranges, while Everfree would keep to their jungle vales. That could be possible if the pegasi would life high enough to see any incoming danger. [they would love it - some manticore sparring can't be bad] Earth pones would be like dwarfs living in mountain keeps and moving only with pegasi convoys. I also bet that half of the pegasus does not want to fight, so they could live with giving up their ground possesions and anypony too zealous would end up as a guardian who keeps the jungle out of the highland fields.

5) If the Earthborns found a common language with the buffloos, why can't they find a middle point with the tribes? Remember anything's possible in a land of technicolour ponies. Like Discord's reformation. It's like Hitler sudently become good.

Because I'm a wicked genious that's why. And I'm looking there where anyone else doesn't look. Namely: The Dictonary. Just look on the Pegasus as a whole; weather bending is their ussual occupation in normal Equestria, so why the idea they won't like to return to that path when the warrior path fails? It's really that simple.

4554787
That is why the Cult will likely be the last thorn to pick off. Now supposedly the other five agreed to peace, no more sorrow, no more suffering, what comes next? The Cult hides in shadows, hard to track down. In these times, those other five would most likely focus themselves in reparations, economy and culture, activities done in peace times. The Cult's activity would still be in progress albeit much slower. Their goal is to bring their deity, the Laughing Mare, to the material plane. Their potential recruits may be decreased significantly, but that does not prevent them from arranging some events (accidents) that would lead to potential cultists. They still have the man (horse?) power to pursue their objective.

Ground ponies living in the Crystal Mountains is an inspiring idea, but a problem if I might: you would allow Everfree's expansion? The mountains have less food, and I doubt the mobile farms can operate effectively there. Also, the Everfree Forest and the Tribes would become very powerful. Relying vital resources from powerful foreign neighbors is never a good idea, as if they break the deal, Stormwing would be very, very weak.

The Buffaloes don't have a death forest creeping behind them, that's why! The alliance between the two is possible due to past friendships between the Apple Clan and the Thunderhoof Tribe. If the death forest stops expanding, then there might be peace, unless Earthborn wants Everfree timber to build their machines.

4555786 They will be stopped eventually. I mean; war reparations, true but what would the militarist do then? The civilians would do those things you said but the armies would need an enemy uneless they end up on the street unemployed. And the cult would be the the ideal enemy.

I dubt there's anything valuble in the northern expansion aside the mineral goods in the mountains. It's basicly a canadian wasteland forests after all.
Half of Stormwing population, namely the warmongering pegasi count on it. Propably they would wait for Everfree for a shadow of open agression and they had prepared some lava pumped from the lower mines to flood the valleys with it.
Stormwing would have weather trade with Earthborn by then. They would get some advanced stuff, like fertilizers, so the highlands would be enough for them.
The tribes would become too powerful, true - but those who move to the north or south would propably disconect with the rest - Fluttershy's empire would become too big and tear itself apart as ponies wouldn't listen to Fluttershy as much as they used to.

Hmm... I don't have a fixed responce to that. But the wood trade idea is intresting.

4556574
The military would be reduced dramatically. Standing armies and navies will still be maintained, albeit not large enough to pose as a major threat. Now this isn't modern world, a grimdark fantasy world rather. Soldiers can start a new career easily as simple laborers such as builders or farmers.

I disagree on the forest part. There are no forests in the Northern Expansion from what the map tells us.

I doubt the Crystal Mountains have any fertile land suitable for planting crops, let alone the space to sow the seeds! It's freezing up there!

That is of course assuming there are changes in leadership of any of the Tribe, and Children of the Forest grown too big, the only tribe that views with respect at best. The other Tribes are devoted to . There are no proper governance. As they grow, they would divide themselves into even more Tribes. Along with the loyalty, rebellion is unlikely. The Everfree Tribes can afford to go slow and steady. Afterall, it's the Forest that controls them.

4556740 But still there are many murder-crazy who couldn't stand doing simple jobs. They have to fight.

I use a diffrent map. Count it in as a headcannon.

Pegasi would find a way. They are stubborn guys.

I feel like we're simply arguing. If the new tribes start a new forest in the northern expansion - that forest could theoreticly try to wringle out of controll.

Scenario 1: "Death" of the Archmagister

A1.0 - "Successful Assassination" = would be killed by assassin(s). "Death" taken literally.

B1.0 - "Disappearance" = disappeared. Gone to hiding? The Astral Plane? "Death" taken as "Missing in Action"

C1.0 - "Realization" = Now this one would be different. found and reread her friendship reports, then she snapped back to her former conscience: "Death" of her terrible being inside her heart.

A2.0 - "The Princess of Love" = With the puppet master gone, Shining Armor and Cadance are free to pursue their own agenda. Likely the groom might only be slightly different from his sister, but the bride herself would definitely endeavor to assume the vacant position of power, emphasis on her endeavor.

B2.0 - "The Inquisition" = A2 can happen in this situation, but B1 would gain more interest from the Celestial Inquisition. As in A2, the inquisitors would be too busy hunting the culprits down (assuming that "Successful Assassination" was flawless) and sweeping the entire controlled territory for co-conspirators (heretics). With the Archmagister missing her duties, it is obvious for the Inquisition to take over the position of power.

C2.0 - "Straight to Work" = regained her "good" conscience, something now rather rare in the realm of Equestria Divided. She would have to use her skills to reorganize Moon and Star to something proper and relatively better compared to the current state. Note that she didn't snap back entirely to her old (FiM Twilight) self. The only thing that snapped back to her was her conscience. The rest of her, such as her skills and memories, are still intact.

C2.1 - "Suicide" = Her "good" self cannot handle the sheer amount of misdeeds she did. Thus, she commits suicide. The same events as A1 would then initiate. A2 would likely follow as Cadance realized her sister-in-law snapped back to her "good" self before she committed suicide, encouraged to bring true "Love" back to Equestria.

C2.2 - "Exile" = Unable to forgive herself of her misdeeds, she chose to exile herself to the unknown, cutting all of her ties and live in a new life; maybe a foreign land, or perhaps someplace even more exotic? B1 would follow.

A3.0 - "Reforms of Love" = Cadance would work tirelessly to remove the racism of Moon and Star. This would obviously include abolition of slavery and acceptance of other races. It is impossible for such reforms to go unopposed, so Cadance must win over the hearts of nobles and scholars alike.

A3.1 - "Overthrow" = Either the Prince or the Grand Inquisitor successfully claimed the vacant position of power. B3 would likely follow if supposed to be Shining, definitely if it's .

B3.0 - "The Great and Powerful Reign" = being obsessed with Unicorn supremacy, Moon and Star would shift itself to be an entity more extreme than ever; bigots who are zealous, warmongering and unforgiving.

C3.0 - "Reforms of Reason" = Unlike A3, cannot afford to make effective reforms as freely as Cadance. She has to cloak herself as the Archmagister, else her position of power would be lost, and with it, her chances of fixing her mistakes. Her reforms would have to be as subtle as her deception to her own "allies". The ideal faction that would agree with her "conspiracy" would be the scholars. They are likely to listen to reasons more than anyone else.

A4.0 - "Dissolution of the Guilds" = The Celestial Guilds swear fealty to Cadance, giving up their autonomy and power for a just cause that is "Love". Cadance significantly gains more political power and control over her subjects.

B4.0 - "Rebellion" = The Guilds and peasants alike rebel against the harsh regime of the Celestial Inquisition. Canterlot sacked and razed, Moon and Star divided itself into two autonomous entity: *Insert their names here* (personally, Solar Empire and New Lunar Republic XD)

C4.0 - "Dawn of Intellect" = With Moon and Star becoming more rational, worshiping of the Celestial Sisters become less popular as a result. Racism and slavery were abolished, seeing the concepts as unreasonable and ineffective. Technology advancements skyrocketed, honing Moon and Star's already sharp edge.

A5.0 - "Agreements" = Princess Cadance's reforms wouldn't go unnoticed by her neighbors. Diplomatic relationship of Moon and Star between Earthborn and Stormwing would dramatically improve due to the new friendly policies along with the chances for peace.
Success

A5.1 - "Invasion" = The new policies would obviously make Moon and Star more lenient, more vulnerable to attacks. A major offensive from the south and/or north would be just enough.
Failure

B5.0 - "Moon and Star is no more" = With the dissolution of Moon and Star, a change of plans must be made. Earthborn and Stormwing has no reason to hate these two fledglings as they themselves rebelled against their master which is their true enemy. If anything, they should be grateful of them, improving chances for peace.
Success

B5.1 - "Destruction" = United we stand, divided we fall; the neighboring major powers have enough resources to conquer the divided Moon and Star. If not the hunger of Earthborn or Stormwing, then it would be the Griffin Kingdoms that shall feast on the searing hot Sun whilst the treacherous nobles of Whitegold nibble on the sweet, sweet Moon.
Failure

C5.0 - "Friendship Relight" = On the diplomatic table, 's friends forgave every wrongdoing she did and are now devoted to restoring peace and order to Equestria.
Success

C5.1 - "Trust Long-Broken" = Friends no longer, the new Archmagister must now destroy her lost friendships with her reformed powers to bring peace to Equestria. Anything for the future of Ponykind.
Failure

4558787

I like it, it gives me the the feel as this can be a quest chain NationStates or Europa Universalis 4.

Alright. I'm gonna try a different way of expressing this out.

Scenario: Foreign Invasion

A nation is weak when there is internal strife. In this realm, Equestria is divided into six different powers. Along with the absence of the almighty Princesses of the Sun and the Moon, it is without a doubt that Equestria is significantly weakened. Foreign powers would be inclined to exploit this major weakness.

In the opening days of the division, shortly after the princesses' disappearance, chaos ensured. Foreign powers would quietly observe the situation to see what actually is going on, accomplishing on something that Equestrians couldn't since they were too busy with the riots and stuff. By the time they were confident that it's not a miscommunication or petty internal issues, Equestrians wouldn't see an attack coming since, you know, chaos.

Lost of contact to the mainland for far-flung colonies is to be expected. These lands are likely annexed by other powers during the ensuring chaos. When there's a riot right outside your doorstep, you wouldn't notice your little colonies getting annexed here and there. By the time they notice (provided that they did) , it would have been far too late.

Such petty annexation doesn't have much effect to the current state of Equestria. It needs more... magnitude to it, something similar to what the Changelings are doing to Earthborn. We know what the Griffin Kingdoms are going to do to Stormwing in the future too. Are there any other candidates? There's the Centaurs and the Gargoyles. The Dragons. The Diamond Dogs such as those of the Kingdom of Dimondia. The Yaks. And many more...

When foreign threats become increasingly alarming, the major powers would have to broker a truce. Yes, I know. It's not exactly a truce free of conflict, but at least they're not fighting amongst themselves. Earthborn is no stranger to outside threats. Stormwing desires to protect Equestria anyway. Whitegold and Moon and Star make uneasy allies, but they're still reasonable. On the other hand, the Tribes and the Cult are worrying. Both the Forest and the Laughing Mare have no need for a united Equestria.

If they fail, then Equestria Divided would become Equestria Shattered. If they succeed, then the unity would leave an impression in every one of them that participated, which might ensure further truce in the long run, or perhaps peace altogether, becoming Equestria United. Though the means of achieving the end result would still be the same: Conquest. The major power who would win in this conquest is the product of unity between different factions as the result of nationalism from defending the homeland.

Nationalism.