So with the comment made by Rarity in the NMM timeline from the S5 finale, we are led to believe that ponies maintain their distance from interaction with any dragons.

How do you believe that eternal night has affected dragons across the world? Would they care?

Do you think that NMM would be pushing Equestria towards greater progression in both military science and magic, in an effort to protect her nation should any dragon(s) attack? Would she make a push for ponies to overtake dragons as the most dominant species on the planet?

5205825 I see dragons as the alpha predator of the world, so they wouldn't really care if it was eternal night or day that much.
I think ponies maintain their distance because of a primal fear. As far as NNM pushing Equestria to overtake dragons why would she? Dragons don't seem to care that much about ponies, at least the elder dragons don't, so why give dragons a reason to care.

5205912

Dragons don't seem to care that much about ponies, at least the elder dragons don't, so why give dragons a reason to care

Dragon Lord, that's why.

As part of her new position, Ember establishes friendlier dragon/pony relations through Princess Twilight Sparkle

This doesn't happen in this timeline.

Also, pay close attention to the wording of that sentence:

friendlier dragon/pony relations

This right here tells us that dragons and ponies aren't exactly on good terms with each other before Ember is given the title of Dragon Lord. Let's say that in this timeline Ember is the new Lord after competing in the Gauntlet, but without Spike and Twilight there, she will have no inclination to smooth over relations with ponies at all.

Now let's say that she doesn't get the title of Dragon Lord, and that it goes to a dragon who views ponies in a very negative light, one who's had enough of ponies altogether. With their authority as Lord, they could attack Equestria or any other pony nation on a whim if they wanted. The entirety of dragons as a species, directed against ponies in an act of pure aggression, what/who could stop them from destroying entire nations?

Sure, this whole scenario is one giant 'what if?', but considering that the title of 'Dragon Lord' is a reality, it's a scenario that's more likely than you think.