Make quantitative predictions.

If you do, it'll be obvious when you get things wrong. This may seem undesirable, but is easy to turn to your advantage; generally, the primary way to improve your model of reality is noticing where it breaks, and then fixing that. If you don't notice when you're wrong, you miss out on opportunities to improve.

I predicted five weeks ago that I'd be able to upload about a chapter a week. I've posted three chapters since then, with more weeks without updates than weeks with updates. So what went wrong? Part of it is temporary traveling knocking me off balance, without a queue to absorb the productivity shock. Another part of it is underestimating the amount of time it takes to do the final edits for a chapter. (Many of the future chapters are mostly written, which is why I felt confident enough to predict weekly updates, but mostly written is not fully written.)

I've got a few workflow adjustments I'm making that I hope will result in more work being done on this. If they have positive effects, that should be visible by two weeks from now, I hope. So stay tuned, but don't hold your breath.