My Thought's On Last Night's Primary · 1:34pm Feb 21st, 2016
(This does not reflect my political views nor my decision on who should be winning, merely my observation and opinions)
Winners:
1. Donald Trump: There can be no denying that Donald Trump has soared into becoming the top candidate for the Republican Party. Despite his second place status in Iowa, he's gone to become first in both New Hampshire and now in South Carolina. Having won a huge lead from this state alone, Donald has more delegates then all the other Republican candidates combined at 60 points. He's expected to win in Nevada next, but Super Tuesday is when we'll see if this huge lead will be beneficial to him or not. Still, it seems the effort to "Make America Great Again" is on the rise and not stopping anytime soon. This gives an outcry of cheer for some, but worry for others and not just Democrats and liberal supporters. Trump isn’t one of the Republican Establishment candidates like Cruz and Rubio, and the party now has to decide if their chips are better pulled together with a man who could very well be their representative.
2. Hillary Clinton: There was a lot of concern for her supporters on whether or not she would win Nevada due to the polls showing a close tie between her and Sanders. However, Hillary put those concerns to rest upon winning the Nevada caucus. Having pretty much tied in Iowa (winning only by coin toss) and lost in New Hampshire, this victory was needed for her in order to keep the Superdelegates and supporters she has happy. However, at the moment of this writing the two candidates are tied in terms of pledged delegates (with one still in Nevada not yet decided) at 51 each. Still, with the backing of the Superdelegates in her corner, Clinton leads by 502 to Sanders 70 total. Clinton's victory is a sigh of relief now that she is heading South Carolina where she has a huge lead in the polls there showing an almost 60% chance of winning. Still, she better do something to try and stop the “Bern Campaign” before Super Tuesday if she has any chances of winning or else it might be the biggest upset ever.
The Losers
1. Jeb Bush: South Carolina was Jeb Bush’s last chance to show he still had something for this primary, and he failed by coming in fourth place. It should come to no surprise that last night he announced that he was ending his campaign. Regardless of your feelings for Jeb Bush, the results of the elections have come at a surprise that the Bush Dynasty hasn’t been able to do very well. Personally, it may have to do with the fact that Jeb Bush doesn’t have the charisma or aggressiveness that his father and brother had in their runs. Whether Jeb Bush will try running again in the future is anyone’s guess, but if he has any chance of doing so next time he needs to come off like a strong and driven leader instead of a wish-washy Charlie Brown type of guy. No offense to Charlie Brown of course.
2. Bernie Sanders: Depending on who you ask, Sanders either lost by a lot or by only the skin of his teeth. However, he still lost Nevada despite an increase in polls showing more favoritism to him. While the results in Iowa were impressive (despite losing the coin tosses), everyone knew he was going to win New Hampshire. What Sanders needed to prove was that he could win a state where he had the odds against him to show he can go up against the Clinton Supermachine. Sadly, to his supporters, that didn’t happen. At the moment of this writing, the two are tied at 51 pledge delegates with one more to be decided on who take the lead by pledged delegates. However, Sander’s greatest weakness is Hillary’s strength: the Superdelegates. She has more Superdelegates then him leading to her still winning at a total of 502 delegates against his 70. Granted, Superdelegates can change their vote at any times, but if Sanders hopes to get them to turn to his side, he needs to convince them that he’s the right man to run for the Democratic party. Possibly the biggest reason this loss may hurt him is that South Carolina is next and he doesn't have a lot of support there. Bernie may need to gamble it all on Super Tuesday if he is to have any chance of continuing his “political revolution”, and get enough delegates to still have a chance of winning the race. I will give the guy credit though; he’s fighting as hard as he can.
3. Ted Cruz: Ted Cruz’s third place win comes a shock to him and his supporters, but not a surprise to me. The problem with Ted Cruz is that he focuses primarily on Evangelical Christians and hopes for their support to win. While Evangelical’s are 1/4 the population of American, and the largest religious group in our country, they are hardly the only religion around. Personally, even though I am Christian (Specifically, Catholic), I would want a president who is willing to try and understand, and win over, a variety of religious groups and even the non-religious. Ted Cruz’s efforts to focus primarily, and rely upon, one group of votes may be his downfall as there is talk of backing up South Carolina's second place winner, Marco Rubio.
Other Thoughts:
1. Marco Rubio: With his surprising second place win over Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio is impressing people on the fact that he’s still running. With Jeb Bush out, Rubio may get the push he needs from the Republican Party to help overcome Cruz and go one on one with Donald Trump. Rubio has often been described as a perfect example of an establishment Republican and, if anybody has a shot of rivaling Donald Trump, the party may have to put their chips in with him. The problem is that Rubio is still inexperienced and not as aggressive in his policies as Trump and Cruz. Perhaps another second place, or even first place, in Nevada will show his decided fate before Super Tuesday.
2. Super Tuesday: Super Tuesday is going to be the first major battle in the primaries for both sides. It’s considered by many to be the first real test to see who is going to have the necessary support to win both the Primary and President Campaign. For the Democrats, if Bernie Sanders can pull of the most delegate wins, or a good enough number to be right behind Hillary, then this fight can go all the way down to the end between the two. If he cannot, then Hillary might have this one in the bag, especially with her big lead already. For the Republicans, we’re going to see if Donald Trump is seriously going to be considered an actual candidate. Despite his recent victories, he needs to show a huge support or majority support for him if he’s to remain in this race and taken seriously. For Cruz and Rubio, it’s to see who is going to be the guy to face off against Trump and gets the Republican support. The loser may just be heading home empty handed.
These were my thoughts.
In my opinion? Fuck Donald Trump, he's the reason we can't have nice things. "Hmm... I got an idea everyone! We all know that we're hated by radical Muslims everywhere, so lets give them actual legitimate reasons to hate us then blame everything on them later!"
Trump deserves all criticism he gets. I don't understand why people are voting for him... Not pointing any fingers in particular but... why?
I'll take anyone that isn't Trump or Hillary. Anyone. For the love of all that is good, don't put either of those assclowns in office, please.
3768201 Right there with ya. I'm generally conservative, tho most of my positions are pretty close to center and I'm willing to talk and compromise on most things. But Trump is a disgrace. If it comes down to these two, and if I even bother to vote, it will only be because I'm voting AGAINST a candidate and not FOR one, and I don't like doing that. This whole election cycle has made me ill.
3768201
I add Bernie Sanders into that mix. There are no qualified candidates this election cycle and America will pay for decades to come for electing any of these nut jobs!
South Carolina also has a strong African American voting population, so Sanders needs to prove he can attract the minorities the Democrats often quote. Sadly, I supsect he'll lose big time there, now that he's lost Nevada. Super Tuesday is a big gamble for him, if he can't win most of the primaries there, he's done. Such a shame, but I guess that's to be expected from someone who plays nice. Nice guys finish last, no matter how hard you try.
3768198 I don't really think most people agree with him. I think the reason he's winning is because the Republican votes are split betweem too many candidates. For the love of God Americans, don't put Hillary or Trump in office.
3768229 I agree, at the risk of starting a major political battle, I feel like I'm one of the few people in my age group (20) who understands the unrealistic nature of Sander's promises.
3768229
3768347
The good news: there's so much deadlock in washington that no matter which candidate wins, nothing they want to do will get done, even if it isn't completely insane.
Bad news: .......... what I just said.
3768451
And now I wish I could go to another universe to escape what our country has become.
Equestria would be great and so would the New Republic from the Star Wars Legends universe. Or many the Star Trek Prime universe. Damn it probability help us out here!
3768451 That's it folks, the truest statement in ths blog. They're not going to be able to accomplish anything anyway.
3768198 Trump should just go back to taking care of that thing on his head that he calls hair.
Politics is really screwed up this time around.
Glad that Jeb dropped out.
FEEL THE BERN! RUN, BERNIE, RUN!!!
This was a good post, though I would quibble with a few details.
Much of the GOP establishment dislikes Cruz as well, albeit for somewhat different reasons. This just being drowned out by their opposition to Trump. Cruz has expressed a slightly less militaristic foreign policy than Rubio, and that has not sat well with some of the more neoconnish members of the GOP establishment. There are also electability concerns, especially after South Carolina, in which Cruz lost his apparent core constituency to a candidate who should by all rights have repulsed them. Beyond that, though, a LOT of Republicans apparently dislike him on a very personal level. For whatever reason, he rubs them the wrong way. Even George W. Bush, who, for all his many faults, was reportedly a decent and forgiving guy on a personal level, reportedly said of Cruz; "I just don't like the guy."
The other thing is even more hair-splitty, but I do love analyzing this stuff from every angle, so here goes...
I think another problem he faces is that the E world has become very broadly defined. A lot of people adopt it, including people who don't always share the socially conservative politics that we usually associate with the group. This can, of course, have the effect of making a candidate who appeals to this group seem to have a much larger base of support than they can actually have in reality. Not only that, but, as noted above, Trump has shown that these voters aren't just going to line up behind Cruz as a matter of fact.
As for Rubio, while he seems to be on the upswing now, he might face a MAJOR setback in the near future. All the polls show Trump ahead in pretty much every state, including Florida.
Here is what Fivethirtyeight has.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/florida-republican/
Trump is narrowing with Rubio, but he is still ten points ahead. Will Trump see a bump after his win in SC? If his momentum is real, he might. If Trump wins Rubio's home state (which is winner take all, with 99 delegates) then that will look VERY bad for him. If Trump wins by a healthy or even large margin (like, say, five points or more) then Rubio's campaign could be in serious trouble. Not just in terms of delegate math, but such a loss would raise serious questions about his electability.
Well, I've rambled enough for now. Sorry for the long comment, but this stuff is like crack to me!
As an non-US I have to say that I can only shake my head about your GOP-candidates. How can there be a fight for the top between an insensible blatherskite and a religious extremist? BOTH make George W. Bush looks like a nice guy, and that was one of the worst president you ever had! Are there no normal persons left, that can candidate? The world is complex and chaotic enough, we need a good, DIPLOMATIC US-president for the next 8 years. You are not voting only for your country, but – being the only super-power left – also for the world in some degree.
We in Europe are way to much busy with our self – deciding if we want to grow more together or prefer to drift apart again (your buddy UK making it not easier). The near east (for you: the middle east) is even more chaotic than the last 30 years, and the only solution there will be with Russia and the Turkey. Russia has waken up, and much talking will be needed to find a new balance between them and you. And China is a topic of its own. Terrorisms is spreading (Syria, Iraq, Somalia, Nigeria – how many countries more?) and someone has to fight it – and no it is NOT helping that the NSA is wiretapping everybody; that solves nothing.
You want to be the best country on earth, God’s own country? Prove it! Vote for someone who will make the world a better place – or at least makes it not worse.
(sorry for the long post – and of course I respect your right to vote whomever you like).
3769376
How about you get your shit sorted out before you lecture other countries on how badly they need to sort out theirs, okay? Maybe get the EU to be better than an utter laughingstock.
Unless you have practical advice.
Hahaha... oh. You're serious.
Buddy boy, There is no such thing as a good politician. If there ever was, they quit in disgust. Moreover, America's elections aren't 'between' anyone. The Republicans are going to win because the Democrats had two terms in a row. It's extremely rare for the party who's been in power two terms in a row to stay in power when it comes to the presidency, Obama isn't popular with republicans at all and if the last senatorial elections are any indication Democrats aren't eager to come out in droves to vote.
When South Park stated outright that every election in America is between a giant douche and a turd sandwich, they were being GENEROUS. It's more like you're voting between a turd sandwich covered in douche and its twin brother, but neither of these two turd sandwiches actually do the job you're electing them for. It instead goes to their cousin, Bleeding Horsecock, who just slaps them both with his freaking dickskin hands and shouts 'LEMME SEE YO WAR FACE'.
Bleeding Horsecock is Congress, btw, since they write the law.
There's too much deadlock in Congress for the two parties to actually AGREE on anything, so the only way something gets done is if one party is fully in power. (I firmly believe that if we submitted a bill that said 'Congressmen will not kill themselves or each other in the middle of a vote' it would come short 3 votes to pass.) People like to shit on the Republican Congress for blocking Obama whenever they could, but Democrats do the exact same thing for Republican presidents. There is literally no choice, other than the name and color.
(Also, Bush was not that bad compared to, say, Jimmy Carter)
3768276 Yup.
So bassically, your county's fucked, and if Trump wins, so is most of the Middle Eastern world, possible us if he knows about the 'cause civil distress, your a state now' thing.
Rubio has my support, no question.
3768347
Question: Barring how "unrealistic" you think his policies would be to implement, do you agree with them?
3770015 Ehhhh, I mean don't get me wrong, I sure like the idea of free college. I've got student loans myself. Free healthcare however, no way. I have family in Canada, and friends in Switzerland and Belgium. They come to America exclusively for the healthcare. As much as it sucks how expensive it is, the very fact that there is such high profit to made drives the creation of new drugs and procedures. It gives incentives for people to want to work in the nedical industry as well. Not to mention most current liberal policies if implimented could near as much in taxes/fees as it does to have health insurance.
3770233
Just because some people in other countries seeking treatment outsource to the US does not mean the US healthcare system is superior; link. EDIT: Link fixed.
As you'd seen in the article I linked above, the more expensive medical services are, the more people end up either going bankrupt during treatment or simply dying because they are less-likely to seek it for fear of going bankrupt. I'm not saying that they shouldn't be able to profit in the medical industry, but as we've recently seen in the case of Turing Pharmaceuticals, there are bounds of reason. The current system the US has needs to be reformed in some way.
Where did you hear that?
3768191 Speaking as an American...I completely agree with you.
3768198 In Trump's defense, I would like to point out that he's very good to appealing to the surprisingly broad Douchebag demographic. Until he started running, those people didn't really have a candidate who spoke to what they think is important.
3772462
I agree, he's a great politician, he's charismatic as all hell and he knows how to appeal to the public. He's not un-intelligent. But a leader is different, a good leader not just knows how to run a country, but he knows what's best for it. Trump's clever but stupid at the same time, a stereotypical nationalist.
3768508 except in the Star Wars universe you run the risk of getting your planet blown up. And every other month Equestria's on the brink of destruction.
3773328
That is why I would either live on Tatoonie or Mandalor. Or get my own ship and go from place to place. The universe is a big place after all!
3773360
Gasp! You'd DARE progress your life away from the MC in Star Wars? The nerve!
3769735
It was not my intend to lecture anybody.