The Society of Mildly Annoyed Liberals 57 members · 0 stories
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SuperPinkBrony12
Group Admin

With the 2018 midterms over, even as the results are still being processed and some races remain too close to call, the general narrative is that Democrats fared well though they didn't necessarily deliver the "Blue Wave" that attracted so much attention in the months leading up to it.

Already there is speculation about potential candidates for 2020 against Trump (who announced his re-election campaign as he took office) or the possibility of Pence if Trump should somehow be removed from office prior. Against Pence it's entirely likely the Democrats could run almost any candidate and win, as Pence would inherit the White House under circumstances similar to Gerald Ford (it is said the day he pardoned Nixon is the day he lost the 1976 election, and Democrats were heard to say they could run an ardvark and win the White House).

Against Trump though, even assuming Trump faces a challenger or two from his own party, Democrats will still face an uphill battle even with the number of controversies, investigations, and factors such as the economy and the Mueller prove. Historically, the last two elections where the president's party lost one or both houses of Congress in the first mid-term, they went on to be re-elected (Clinton triumphed over Dole relatively easily, Obama beat Romney by a much closer margin). And there's no denying that Trump remains a strong motivator within the GOP as was seen by the Senate results in red states like Texas, North Dakota, and Missouri.

So far, only one candidate has officially announced a bid and he seems unlikely to last outside of a possible dark horse strategy in a crowded playing field. A few other candidates are mulling over the decision to run and are expected to decide sometime in the next few months. Including: Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, and Cory Booker. Beto O'Rourke is being considered as well even though he stated in the closing days of his campaign that he had no interest in running in 2020 (a decision that does not seem likely to change after his loss to Cruz). And there is speculation about candidates such as Oprah Winfrey, Michael Avenatti, and even supposedly Hillary Clinton, though none have publicly announced any interest in a possible run.

The challenge for Democrats is to find a candidate that can compete against Trump, but isn't solely defined as anti-Trump. Trump is a candidate who only knows how to make elections about himself, he likes it most when the attention is focused on him and does what he does to draw attention back to him. A Democratic candidate will need to be able to counter Trump criticisms and remarks, but will need to be able to offer a path forward that is focused on issues Trump has failed to address that drew voters to him in 2016 (or just aliennated voters that would've voted for Hillary Clinton but chose to stay home). The candidate will also need to be a unifier, not just for the country but for the party. The feud between Clinton and Sanders supporters may have been put on hold in 2018 for the sake of the mid terms, but for 2020 the argument will once again turn to what is the best path forward for the Democratic party and a divided party will easily give re-election to Trump.

Democrats have a decision on their hands about how much they want to pick the candidate versus how much they want to trust their supporters to pick the candidate. How much control they exercise or appear to exercise, and who eventually wins the nomination may very well decide the party's fate not only in 2020 but also beyond.

Of all the candidates, the only ones who seem likely to stand a real chance are:
1. Bernie Sanders (assuming the party lets him, if not his endorsement will be crucial)
2. Joe Biden (he has a lot to answer for and is said to be gafe prone, how well he can reinvent himself will determine if he wins or even makes it through the primaries)
3. Elizabeth Warren (if she can shift the focus from her Native American heritage to issues such as jobs and healthcare she has a chance to unify the two wings, though her V.P. pick will be crucial due to her age)
4. Beto O'Rourke (even if he doesn't run an endorsement from him could mean a lot, and he could be consulted as a V.P. pick if a candidate like Biden clinches the nomination)

And the candidates Democrats should avoid are:
1. Hillary Clinton (twice she has run and twice she has failed to win, running her again is begging for the same results)
2. Michael Aventti/Oprah Winfrey (they're only interested in using Trump as a sign that a celebrity can be president and won't be anymore experienced on policy issues than Trump is now)
3. Cory Booker (he's not entirely unsalvegable but he has a lot of scandals looming over him and an image that makes him unacceptable to the Sanders supporters)

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Bernie Sanders: His issue is if he's willing to go for another run, and the stiff resistance from diehard Hillary supporters. I've already seen a lot of Shilbots willing to spend their own money to march against Bernie and one guys said he will buy a tour bus and tour the country telling people Bernie's the enemy. These are also the same people that said Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez needs to be brought to heel because she joined activists outside Nancy Pelosi's office. Yes, these people who criticized Republicans of racism are saying a colored woman needs to be brought to heel before Nancy Pelosi. I ain't kidding.

Joe Biden: Too much baggage and recently, he awarded George H.W. Bush and Laura Bush the Liberty Medal for his contribution to helping veterans. Yes, the same veterans that fought in Iraq over oil instead of the make believe threat of WMDs the Bush administration came up with.

Elizabeth Warren: The problem about her is she said she is a diehard capitalist, she keeps putting a target behind her back, she didn't endorse Bernie, and she didn't stand with the Standing Rock activists unlike Bernie. You know, despite having Native American heritage, she didn't stand...with the Native Americans.

Beto O'Rourke: He would be a serious boost if he was chosen as VP, but I don't believe he's willing to reach for an office that high just yet. My guess is he wants several more years of experience before he feels he's ready.

I thought of Barbara Lee being Bernie's VP, but we not only need her in Dem Leadership in the House, and we don't gain Southern votes from her either. Beto's name came up for me several times but again, he doesn't seem to be willing.

SuperPinkBrony12
Group Admin

6662212 With Biden, I could understand praising H. W. Bush who by all accounts was as close to a liberal in the modern Republican party as you can get. And like Obama he probably feels intent on praising Bush Sr.'s "Million Points of Light" organization and all the relief work he's done since leaving office. But Laura Bush is W. Bush's wife, and recently W. Bush got back into politics, stumping for Kavanaugh and for GOP officials in Texas. Even if W. Bush and the Obamas think that's just how politics work, it's wrong. Bush in fact should've stepped in to turn over the documents on Kavanaugh that the GOP wanted hidden.

For what little it's worth, Warren was neutral during the 2016 primaries and did later come out and admit the primaries were rigged against Bernie. But I imagine most of Bernie's supporters still won't forgive her for not speaking out sooner on this, when her support could've made a world of difference for Bernie and at least given him more leverage at the 2016 Democratic convention instead of being intimidated into submission to stop Trump (which of course didn't work).

I know the DNC is slow to relinquish its chokehold on party power because they're afraid that without it their party will nominate weak candidates again (and they probably fear a Trump like scenario for them where a nominee they can't control goes completely off the rails) but history has worked against their "efforts" to do so. Super delegates didn't help Walter Mondale in 1984 or Michael Dukakis in 1988, in the former case Mondale never stood a chance against Reagan and any other nominee would've had just as hard a time with a popular incumbent. And Dukakis made too many mistakes, including the infamous tank ad and his response to the death penalty question. Hillary Clinton's only strategy both times she ran was to use her super delegate lead and fundraising powers to scare off any potential challengers, she never wanted to actually make the hard decisions the way her husband had to in 1992. In 2008, Obama was able to beat her by turning her husband in a liability and presenting a fresh image. Hillary should've taken that lesson to heart for 2016, if you don't go out there and walk the walk no one's going to believe you're actually on their side. Even candidates such as Al Gore and John Kerry put more effort into their campaigns than she ever did.

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