May the muffins be forever in your favour.[Analysis] Equestria is Magic: The Alicorn Successor War and how it ended the Union of the Three Pony Tribes · 8:00pm May 4th, 2021
Today, I have taken a close look at the synopsis of the Generation 5 Movie that is going to kick off Generation 5 in Autumn:
What we learn from this synopsis is that the three pony tribes are hostile to each other again and live separated, in a divided Equestria that has been split up into three individual kingdoms.
The biggest question I ask myself after reading the synopsis, aside from the question why the three pony tribes separated again, is:
Do alicorns still exist in this distant, dystopian future of Equestria?
This question led me to the question who, if alicorns don't exist anymore, is raising and lowering the sun and the moon now. From there, my thoughts spun further and I developed a theory about the reason for the separation of the three pony tribes:
Before Celestia and Luna discovered their special talents and began to raise and lower the sun and moon (events that are told about in the "Journal of the Two Sisters: The Official Chronicles of Celestia and Luna"), it were the unicorns who had to do that. And they sacrificed their magic in the process. Since unicorns aren't naturally talented for performing the task of moving the sun and moon and because their magic is much weaker than the magic of an alicorn, moving the celestial bodies eventually cost unicorns their magic and other unicorns had to step in their place to continue for them. Until they would eventually lose their magic, too..... If Celestia and Luna haven't had these special talents of moving the sun and moon, then all unicorns would have lost their magical abilities one day. Not a prospect that any unicorn would like and something that probably all unicorns fear.
In Equestria's dystopian future, that I predicted here and that the synopsis for the Generation 5 Movie has confirmed now, this terrifying prospect for unicorns has been brought back.
Celestia, Luna and Cadance are likely dead, as they have been at least more than a 1,000 years old in the present already. Twilight became an alicorn more than 1,000 years after Nightmare Moon's banishment and Flurry Heart was born a few years after Twilight ascended to an alicorn, so they have lived for far longer than Celestia, Luna and Cadance did. But eventually, even their time came. And when the death of Flurry Heart, the last living alicorn, drew closer, the ponies of Equestria had to deal with the question who will raise and lower the sun and moon after she passed.
Alicorns are rare. For more than 1,000 years, Celestia, Luna and Cadance were the only alicorns in existence. Twilight was the first one who ascended to an alicorn after all this time. And Celestia and Luna didn't even know that a pony can be born as an alicorn, which makes clear that the circumstances necessary for the birth of an alicorn are even more rare than a pony ascending to one. During the entirety of the lives of Twilight and Flurry Heart, there had never been a new alicorn, neither by ascension, nor birth. However, it was known by ponies how an alicorn can be born by the time Flurry Heart was near the end of her life:
In Generation 4, we have seen that an alicorn foal can be conceived by an alicorn and a unicorn. We have also seen that two earth pony parents can conceive a unicorn and a pegasus foal, if unicorn and pegasus genes are in their bloodline. Since these genes are only in distant relatives then, or maybe even ancestors in some cases, and therefore less present, they aren't enough to procreate an alicorn foal, not even in combination with the earth pony genes of the parents. To procreate an alicorn foal, the parents need to be a pegasus and a unicorn, for the respective genes to be present enough, who have earth pony genes in their bloodline.
Alicorns possess the magic of all three pony races, which means, they have genes of each pony race in them. When we look at their abilities, however, the pegasus and unicorn abilities seem to be dominant in alicorns. Unlike earth ponies, who only possess passive magical abilities, active magic is possessed by pegasi (weather control, but NOT flying, flight has been confirmed numerous times as a physical ability throughout Generation 4) and unicorns (spellcasting). It's because of this that I think that unicorn and pegasus genes are always stronger and more dominant than the genes of earth ponies, because the former have more magic than the latter and therefore require stronger genes, so that earth pony parents with pegasus and unicorn genes in their bloodline will always have a pegasus or a unicorn foal. The pegasus and unicorn genes need to, however, come from pegasus and unicorn parents, not from a distant relative or ancestor, if an alicorn foal should be born. While the earth pony genes are enough to procreate an alicorn even if they don't come from a parent.
It's a complicated system and perhaps not easy to understand. But, in short, I think for the procreation of an alicorn foal who doesn't have alicorn and unicorn parents, it is necessary that the parents are a unicorn and a pegasus who have earth pony genes somewhere in their bloodline. This constellation is needed to reflect the dominance of magical abilities of pegasi and unicorns, as well as the submissive magical ability of earth ponies, in an alicorn. If the constellation of pegasus, unicorn and earth pony genes mirror the dominance and submission of the respective magical abilities in the body of an alicorn, then the foal of a unicorn and a pegasus will be an alicorn.
This constellation is extremely rare, though, and that brings us back to the problem of the future ponies of Equestria, after a necessary explanation about the procreation of alicorn foals that is needed to fully understand the theory I'm making here.
Flurry Heart was close to dying, she hadn't many more years to live. When she passed away, the hopes of the unicorns that a new alicorn comes to be prior to the death of the last, old alicorn were in vain. Even until after Flurry Heart's death, no pony had ascended to an alicorn and no alicorn had been born. And without an alicorn, it meant that it was up to the unicorns to raise and lower the sun and moon again. They had to face the loss of their magic once more. But the unicorns didn't want to lose their magic. And the obvious solution for this predicament was to go and take care of it that an alicorn foal from unicorn and pegasus parents with earth pony genes becomes finally born. This came with problems, however.
It wasn't difficult for the unicorns to find one of theirs who had earth pony genes in their bloodline. But the problems started when the pegasi and the earth ponies weren't too keen about the unicorns' plan.
The compatible unicorn was the very first one with earth pony genes in the bloodline that had been found. And the unicorns wanted to keep the sacrifice of their magic for raising and lowering the sun and moon, before the born alicorn would be old and strong enough to take over the task, as low as possible. So they didn't keep searching and chose this unicorn as one of the parents to conceive the alicorn foal, something the unicorn of course agreed with. The catch, however, was that this unicorn happened to be in a relationship with an earth pony.
The earth pony didn't agree to it that their unicorn partner has sex and even conceives a foal with a pegasus, as they felt this would be a violation of their relationship. Tensions rose between the earth pony and the unicorn partners, especially when the unicorn tried to push their earth pony partner to agree and when they put the magic of their own race above their relationship, while the earth pony got eventually accused by their unicorn partner of not caring about them and of wanting that they lose their magic one day. The earth pony tribe, of course, supported their fellow, while the unicorn tribe supported theirs, and that led to tensions between the unicorn and the earth pony tribe.
Meanwhile, no pegasus volunteered to conceive an alicorn foal with the chosen unicorn. The pegasi understood the plight of the unicorn's earth pony partner and sided with both that earth pony and the whole earth pony tribe. Tensions between the unicorn tribe and the pegasus tribe rose, as well.
In their desperation, the unicorns eventually outright demanded that a pegasus volunteers, if necessary, even by force. This increased the tensions. A long time of negotiations, fights and disagreements, without a compromise being found, went by, with tensions growing further and further. Until, eventually, the situation escalated and the unicorns went to war against the pegasi and earth ponies, still with the goal to turn the situation in their favor and to force a pegasus to perform the act they needed to save their magic.
The earth ponies and pegasi joined forces and defended themselves against the unicorns and fought them together. In some way, after the war had raged for a while, the pegasi and earth ponies got riled up against each other, as well. I am not sure how this happened, but perhaps somepony in the pegasus tribe who rose to the top of the command chain was corrupt and secretly made a deal with the unicorns to sabotage the earth pony army so that the unicorns can rack up a victory against them and get an advantage in the war that way. But it was discovered before the plan worked.
The earth ponies were outraged and turned against the pegasi, thinking they are all traitors, and the pegasi failed to make them understand that it weren't all of them who were behind that coup. So the earth ponies began fighting them and the pegasi had no choice but to defend themselves. Until the losses the pegasi had because of the earth pony army were so big that the pegasi also developed hatred against the earth ponies in turn. The unicorns, of course, used the situation in their favor and attacked and caused losses for both the pegasus and the earth pony tribe while they were distracted with fighting each other and, eventually, the other two tribes attacked the unicorns again, but without working together this time and while still attacking each other as well.
In that way, everything had gotten out of control even more and an all-out war between the three pony tribes took place, perhaps over many years. When the losses for each tribe and across all of Equestria had become immense and it was clear that no side would win, the leaders of the three tribes finally sat down for new negotiations. Since they still couldn't find a consensus about the alicorn problem, but knew that Equestria would be completely destroyed if they kept fighting, they agreed that the three pony tribes should live separate from now on to avoid further tensions.
The war ended and the three tribes divided Equestria among them. An earth pony kingdom, a pegasus kingdom and a unicorn kingdom got founded as a result, into which the ponies of each tribe retreated. Each of the kingdoms created a law that forbad ponies of the other two tribes to enter and, since then, earth ponies, unicorns and pegasi lived only among the members of their own tribes anymore and friendship between ponies from two different tribes was a thing of the past.
How and if the unicorns solved their magic problem is something I can't tell, but the synopsis of the movie mentions lost magic:
.
In the new movie, the pony world of Equestria has lost its magic.
This could be a hint for it that the unicorns of Equestria lost their magic because they had to raise and lower the sun and the moon again. However, I actually don't think this line is meant literal. I think its meaning is symbolical and that it refers to it that the Magic of Friendship is lost, due to the separation of the three pony tribes, as the next sentence speaks about it how friendship and harmony have been replaced by paranoia and mistrust. But if I should be wrong about that and the line is meant literal, it could be that it refers to unicorn magic specifically, since the line doesn't define the extent of the loss of magic.
Either way, it is more than likely that no alicorns live anymore in the distant future of Equestria, so that it is indeed up to the unicorns again to move the sun and moon and that they have to sacrifice their magic for that, which means that this line could very well refer to them and support my theory.
There is nothing to prove this theory of mine right now and it is based purely on my thoughts after reading the synopsis of the Generation 5 Movie and on the facts we know about Equestria's culture and past. But it lines up well with everything we know (except with the windigos and I currently have no answer on the question how the three pony tribes have prevented them from destroying Equestria, but they have obviously managed that somehow) and so, until my theory gets either proven or refuted by future Generation 5 information, I believe this is how the separation of the three pony tribes happened.
There is a lot more to find in the synopsis, but this analysis has gotten longer than I expected it to be, so I'll split off the rest and release it as Part 2 of my Generation 5 Movie synopsis analysis.
Stay easy as a filly!
~ Fluttercheer
