Alondro was right... again... as usual · 4:43pm May 23rd, 2020
The lockdowns were POINTLESS. The studies coming out of REAL ACTUAL DATA and not computational models highly vulnerable to bias and manipulation are showing the lockdowns had LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON THE PANDEMIC AT ALL.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ZCOJq5DVZA
Social distancing, disinfecting, isolating the elderly in nursing homes from exposure, and wearing masks would have been more than enough to drastically reduce death rates (given that the average age of death from the virus is roughly 70-75 years old) had people not freaked the hell out like terrified, stupid herd animals.
Both CA and FL state governments (and yes, Newsom did get this right, along with DeSantis) realized early the elderly were by far the most at risk, and took quick steps to secure the senior care facilities. And so, despite being very populous states with high-density urban zones and extremely popular winter and early spring vacation travel locations, NEITHER state suffered anywhere near the number of infections or deaths as New York and New Jersey, which accounted for a full third of the total despite having the most draconian lockdowns in the country.
Now, let's see how long social media keeps censoring people now that the FACTS are in agreement with those opposed to the lockdowns! Now the social media companies will be anti-science and anti-fact!
The ultimate vindication of my predictions will come when the antibody test numbers are finally added to the official totals of cases. Several of the tests are reaching the 99% positive accuracy standards. They'll become the standard serological tests. Once these tens of millions of asymptomatic cases are added, the real death rate will be between 0.1 and 0.05%, and the world will be awakened to the undeniable reality that the pandemic was not even as severe as the 2009 H1N1 outbreak, which may have killed as many as 575,000 people (it wasn't tracked for 6 months... suspicious, that... and so the actual numbers could not be ascertained). The annual flu kills between 250K to 500K people ever single year, with the average being 284K https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2012/06/cdc-estimate-global-h1n1-pandemic-deaths-284000
For comparison, the 1957-58 Asian flu killed at least a million people. The 1968-69 Hong Kong flu killed about the same. And nothing in modern history comes close to the 1918 pandemic which killed 100 million... MINIMUM...
Reacting in a panic ALWAYS DOES MORE HARM THAN GOOD! Relying on computational models is IDIOTIC when the models cannot even contain the most critical variables given the information doesn't yet exist! And trusting gigantic political organizations which are influenced heavily by a nation that is known for severe oppression, mass murder, censorship, intellectual property theft, tainted products of every sort, and ceaseless lies to and spying upon everyone they interact with is practically insane.
If there is any good to come out of this, it's perhaps that AT LAST the rest of the world will realize that the Chinese Communist Party is the enemy of EVERYONE, including many of the Chinese people.
Yeah, people being dumb panicky animals about a new disease tend to kill more people than the disease itself. And a model based on self-reporting and educated guesses when asymptomatic carriers, conspiracy nuts, and the occasional actually conspiracy all exist is about as useful as a soup knife. Unfortunately, partisanship has ensured that nobody is talking to each other and nothing will change until and unless the system actually collapses.
Side note: any actual insiders would be killed before they could blab, so any conspiracy theory that turned out to be true is merely a coincidence.
5267837 Remember the two doctors who leaked the data about the virus from China? Both of them were 'disappeared'.
China's vile communist government is a danger to the rest of the world. They were permitting international travel from Wuhan while forbidding anyone from Wuhan to go anywhere else in China. THEY KNEW. They spread it DELIBERATELY. That makes the virus at least a bioweapon by proxy, like sending blankets infected with smallpox to Native Americans.
5267851
China isn't really communist anymore.
5267851
They aren't communist by any reasonable definition, but you're otherwise correct. What's more, the age of sail probably didn't know enough about how diseases work for the smallpox thing to have been intentional, so China is actually worse than the total asshole that Columbus was. Go look it up sometime if you weren't already aware.
What's got me concerned (yes, yes, concernposting, I know...) is the distinct possibility of a second spike a few months from now, in the same style as the Spanish Flu epidemic in the early 1900's.
Granted, the probability is on the low end (and given that our medical knowledge far exceeds the world of the early 1900's), so I am not worried but, given as how my Grandmother lives with me and is a cancer as well as a heart patient, it's something I am going to keep an eye on.
Still, I agree with you. Nothing I saw about this illness told me that using your Flu Season Sensibility would keep you at least mostly from harm's way.
1) Avoid Sick People (duh
2) Don't Go Out As Much
3) Limit Exposure To Large Crowds
4) Don't Do Anything Stupid Like Licking Doorknobs
5267859
They fly the same flag and use the same rhetoric. A turd by any other name is still something you don't want under your nose.
That being said, I doubt China's the main hand in all of this, for the simple fact that they have nothing to gain from this in the short, middle, or long term.
Something else is rotten in the state of Denmark, and I don't like it.
I've heard that lockdown severity vs. disease severity has some... curious features internationally, as well. Of course, it's hard to be certain of one's information on this at the moment, given everything flying around.
5268088
Their spiel may be the same, but their actual actions are the bog-standard totalitarian dictatorship that the US allows to exist because money. (See also: Saudi Arabia)
but muh #SecondWave
5268253
Couple of reasons for that.
Not good reasons. Not logical reasons.
But a couple.
Our mistake was in not ignoring them utterly/killing the seed while it was young. Instead what happened was we jumped into the big business bed with them.
So now they hold a major chunk of our debt in addition to our actual business.
How many things do Americans own that say "Made In China"? If it isn't made in China, how many components does it have that are?
Another thing not many people realize is that they, again, have a grip on our pharmaceuticals. A large portion of our medicines are...Made In China.
Weapons tech? How much of the chips and other elements come from China?
Computers, phones, etc?
So we have a massive pile of dog doo on our hands in that a country who is intrinsically opposed to us has an economic rope around our consumerist throats. A few tugs and we get back in line...as long as we think it's worth it.
However, there is a catch: this pile of dog doo is particularly rancid, and it is in the nose of the people throwing it at us.
China knows that, in us, they have a goose that lays golden eggs.
They may not like us, but we are their main consumer. If they do anything to get at us beyond the typical passive-aggressive poke and jab that passes for intercourse between countries nowadays, we'll cut off our economic times with them. Sure, our prices would go up and we'd either have to forge a new deal with another country or actually go back to providing for ourselves again, but we have the means to do it. May have to (should have done years ago) revamp our infrastructure to do it in the latter case, but we would do it.
No more goose laying golden eggs.
They can't afford that. The tariffs imposed are already hurting them, but they are still getting cash flow.
Essentially, they have a rope around our necks, and we have a gun pointed at them.
Mexican standoff.
They can screw us royally, we can screw them royally, but neither country wants to give up the money/cheap goods that the relationship gives, hence uneasy truce.
At least not until one of us has an advantage, which China is fishing for in the military end of things.
This is a huge part of the reason why I doubt China has too much of a hand in the Corona thing.
They stand too much to lose by pissing us off. We could just cut off our cash flow to them, which would hurt them mightily, and we wouldn't even have to set a boot on the ground in the real world.
5268444
That's more or less what I meant by "because money" but with way more words. The US actually exports nearly as much oil as it imports for reasons that an economist could probably explain. Maybe even more, I don't remember the figures.
5268087 The dire warnings of a 'Second Wave' in autumn are baseless and absolutely impossible to predict. That's pure paranoia, and I am suspect of any doctor who claims to legitimately believe it.
Influenza frequently has a second wave because of its many forms which can recombine in animals and cross-infect numerous species.
This coronavirus can't do that. It hasn't dwelt in human hosts and domestic animals for thousands of years, and evolved into various recombinant serovars.
It's most closely related to SARS and MERS... to viruses that eventually simply went away. This one just happened to be a) much more infectious than either of those and b) has a disproportionately high number of asymptomatic carriers, which permitted it to stealthily spread at an extraordinarily high speed.
But there's no indication right now that it possesses what is generally considered necessary for a resurgence after more than half of the population has been exposed. It would need to mutate into a form our immune system could no longer recognize. And if it does that a vaccine would also be useless, since the antibodies formed after inoculation would only be effective against the original form.
Mutation is, for the most part, random; but the mutants still need specific sequences coding for proteins it needs to be able to bind to and enter the host cells, so some viruses are very limited in how they can mutate before they can't infect any longer. Smallpox, for instance, was so limited by its surface protein requirements that the same vaccine was able to wipe it out completely. The same was almost true for polio and measles. And the lingering mini-outbreaks of those two are entirely tied to those refusing to take the vaccine, which is still entirely effective at granting lifetime immunity.
5268444 Not just the USA. Much of the WORLD depends on Chinese-made goods. And, thankfully, it looks like a good many of them now realize what a horrible error they've made.
China is not, however, above using a bioweapon to hold the world hostage.
In this case, it's quite clear China was up to no good. They were smuggling SARS, H1N1 and other virus samples in luggage. No one doing legitimate research would every do that. And the lab was very secretive and STILL won't allow any outside inspectors in from ANY other country... hardly what one would expect if it was trying to develop research to aid in dealing with pandemics and bioweapons.
I suspect they were playing with various lab-created strains of the virus and, because their safety measures are absolute rubbish, one particularly nasty one escaped before they were ready to deal with it. Buuuut, as the saying goes, "Never let a good crisis go to waste." so they immediately blocked Wuhan from internal travel, while encouraging international travel.. protecting themselves from the spread while knowingly allowing it to spread worldwide. That they were actively denying how it spread while doing so it damning proof of ill-intent.
5267859 They're more national socialist in behavior these days. Less apt to murder tens of millions of their own people, and instead looking outward for 'breathing room'.
5268612
Again, I said "possible", followed up by "unlikely".
Also, everything you said is a fair point...if this thing is natural and not man-made.
Which, as you mentioned, there is growing evidence that it is some sort of test-tube baby gone mad.
Again, we come up against the good old "Scientist(s) Who Are Obsessed With Whether Or Not They Can Do Something While Not Quite Understanding Whether Or Not They Should" trope, combined with a government (pick one, they all do it) eagerly egging them on and writing blank checks just so they can get some form of leg-up on the competition.
The peasants don't matter. We never have, we never will, and the delusion that we hold any sort of space in the heads of these "people" is a sad and dangerous one to have.
"When the elephants fight, it's the grass that suffers", as the old saying goes, and we're expected to be thankful.
5268616
True; however, we are the prize. Their biggest rival, one that views them as an enemy (at least, we down here outside the ivory towers and guarded gates), and the only real stumbling block on their way to expansion, and they have us literally begging to buy from them.
Must be one hell of a power trip.
And of course they aren't above holding the world hostage by unsavory means. No government is, let alone one of the Big Three. China utilizes Economic Colonization, we constantly go off on "peacekeeping" missions that leave the area we "save" even worse off than before, and the EU...well, they're less "The World" and more along the lines of the average citizens of the member states.
As for exactly the "Who-Where-and-Why" it was released...I'm not sure I'm even willing to lay the blame on China for it "accidentally" getting out. I have a friend in Intelligence, and he's said things without saying things (if you get me) that hint at a bit more outside involvement than is being let known.
Either way, the salient point right now is that we agree on this: any dealings with any country to the depth that we have with China, let alone with a country that is our ideological enemy, is a mistake.
Point of fact: Maybe this might or might not have happened, but it wouldn't have happened to the extent that it has if we weren't so dependent on a foreign power.
5268621
As is the prerogative of an empire, its governing principles notwithstanding.
Not saying it's right, just that it is.
If you haven't, take a look at the Economic Colonization China is doing in Africa.
You want something to get mad about,
5267859 ?
You remember the stories of what the Coal Mining industry in America was like, right?
Get a job with them, find out that the pay is crap and everything in the General Store is expensive, take out credit and get into debt, rinse and repeat without hope of getting out from under it?
Pretty much what is going on with the Chinese business endeavors in Africa right now. Biggest difference being that it has a nice little spicing of good ol' People's Republic brutality attached to it.
And nobody in the West says a word.
Now there's something to get enraged over.
5268661 Even if it's man-made, the mutants will still be random. I'm in genetics, and it's sometimes damned hard to make all the mutations you want in a tightly-controlled laboratory setting.
Once the little buggers are free, you've got no control over them... which is why I've always been of the opinion that using an infectious disease as a bioweapon is suicidal. You're better off with nukes than a disease. At least the nukes can't grow and reproduce by themselves!
One nuke, takes out a city. One virus... you could take out the whole world, including yourself.
But the Chinese are EXTRAORDINARILY arrogant... I've been told things by researchers who managed to get out. They're still afraid of the Chinese government because they know there are many spies for the CCP in the USA. The murder of Bing Liu on May 2 had a number of them in panic.
As for the Chinese in Africa, oh yeah, I know all about that. It infuriates me when certain ideological slants rant about 'American imperialism' while China is outright buying a controlling stake in numerous poor countries and bribing their governments.
5268088
Well see the thing is that capitalism sucks and communism is actually pretty great.
5268663
Yeah, Chinese arrogance is the stuff of legend. I'd go into my theories (historian, over here), but...FiMFic.
5268712
Of course it is. With Communism, Utopia is always just within reach!
You know, once you climb up the ever-increasing mountain of starved and/or bullet-riddled corpses to reach it.
And ignore the fact that there are no successful Communist countries.
And ignore the fact that it has ruined every country where it has been tried.
And ignore the fact that a country that espouses Communism only lasts as long as they allow Capitalist elements into their policies.
And ignore the fact-
Oh.
Wait.
None of that was real Communism, was it?
Real Communism has never been tried!
How could I forget?!
Don't get me wrong; I don't like Capitalism much, myself.
The rampant consumerism, the sheer myopic greed of these massive corporations, and the globalism that comes with it are disgusting.
But you're nuttier than trail mix if you think for half a second that Communism is, in any way, a good idea.
I like you, Supes. You seem like a genuinely nice guy.
Let Marx and Engels go. The pursuit of their little ideology is singlehandedly responsible for most of the ruin we saw in the last century.
What does that tell you about it?
5268733
I thought you blocked me like a year ago?
Anyway, socialist policies have helped lift hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. Meanwhile capitalism has led to extreme wealth disparity. If we got rid of billionaires we could literally end extreme poverty.
Also, I don’t think you realize how many resources the US and it’s allies have put into destroying leftist movements.
5269037
Quite probable. A few months back I decided to stop acting like my Antifa uncle and unblocked everyone.
No, it merely reduced anyone who didn't lead the Party or whom the Party didn't favor to poverty.
Grand idea, really. Get rid of being poor by making everyone poor! That way there's no disparity!
Brilliant logic! Monty Python would be proud!
Of course it has. Look, you won't find an ardent defender of capitalism, here, particularly the "laissez-faire" breed that has come to primacy.
It's still a better system than communism, though. I'd rather be poor and have a ghost of a chance to better my lot than be poor while the Commissar is pointing a gun at my head waiting for my fake smile to drop.
BRRRRRILLIAAAAAAANNNNT!!!
Wow, you're right. It's amazing how incredibly hostile to Leftist movements our government has become, to the point that Antifa literally stalks the streets of major cities, attacking anyone they think might be a "fascist", regardless of age, race, or sex, with barely a boo from the authorities.
Or how one of the two major parties of this country flew the Hammer and Sickle at their National Convention in 2016, one of the candidates wore it as a pin on his jacket, and Hillary and Biden's only real competition running for nomination is a self-described Democratic Socialist.
It's gotten so awful that you can't even admit to being a Republican without somebody trying to doxx you, calling you "literally Hitler", getting you kicked off of social media, or calling your place of work to get you fired, or some combination thereof.
And the fact that our big, fat, multi-(insert letter here)illion-dollar capitalistic corporations and fabulously-wealthy people (like Apple, Google, Bill Gates, and Mark Zuckerberg) that the Left preaches so mightily against throw loud and proud public (often monetary) support behind Leftist causes, movements, and politicians is certainly just unspeakable.
Oh! How could I forget the media coverage! At every opportunity, those nasty talking heads and journalists do nothing but gloat about how successful the Left is, and how stupid and backwards and evil anyone who disagrees (how dare they) is, nonstop, day in and day out, on a 24/7/366 (in the Advent of a Leap Year) news cycle.
Ghastly. Just ghastly, I say. My jimmies be certainly rustled.
Meanwhile, the disgusting Right gets little to none of that!
(Sigh) How aggressive against Leftism the West is. 'tis to weep, truly.
Face it, Supes.
You guys aren't a "resistance". You aren't the "dissidents".
Almost every single facet of America, from Wall Street to Media to Politics to the courtroom, is on your side.
Congratulations on joining the Empire, trooper! You can pick up your plasteel and blaster from the armory! Palpatine thanks you!
5268712 USSR collapsed. Khmer Rouge collapsed. Vietnam was impoverished and has now began converting to a capitalist economy. North Korea... do I even have to explain? Cuba, so oppressive that people were swimming across shark-infested ocean to escape it. Maoist China was on the verge of collapse until his successors allowed some capitalism, as well as shamelessly steals intellectual property while working its people in sweatshops. And China now is suppressing Hong Kong while instituting a social credit credit system on all their people that will punish anyone who disagrees and encourages people to rat out their relatives and neighbors if they should ever dare to contemplate freedom.
Yeah, such a record of success.
Let's also apply some very basic logic: if none of the failures were 'real' communism or 'real' socialism... then how do you even know the 'real' thing could ever work?
5269037 You must be from the MSNBC school of math, where millions divided by millions equals millions.
There are a billion people in poverty. If you took ALL the combined money the billionaires of the world posses let's round it up to a trillion dollars), you could give each of the poor about a thousand buck... for one year. Then all the money would be gone.
What then, genius?
5267859
China is Authoritarian state capitalism (hint, that means fachist)
5273498 Yes, the Chinese government realized after the death of Mao that communism was an utter failure and could never successfully manage a large country for long... but there was one other mutation of socialism which HAD granted great power and economic plenty, and HAD almost conquered the world, save for one grave mistake which had doomed it in the end... all they had to do was avoid that folly of open warfare, until their global adversaries were eaten out from within.
The mistake people always make is putting too much stock in a name. What a group calls itself is meaningless. It's what they do which reveals what they really are. For crying out loud, the Bible told us this truth 2 thousand years ago, and wise men of all ages have repeated it. Yet it's an obvious common sense rationale which escapes so many stuck in their ideological ruts.
Antifa calls itself antifascist, while behaving in the manner of the SA during Kristallnacht. An asp by any other name will still kill with one bite.
5274916
Nazis weren't socialist, dumbass. They were extremely anti-worker and pro-big business.
5276504 You really need to study the history more deeply. That was how they promoted themselves. That's what the propaganda pushed. And that's what they delivered to the German people... for a couple years. Just long enough to gain absolute control over everything.
That's always how it works. The leaders of these socialist/communist movements NEVER actually believe any of it. But it's PERFECT to deceive gullible fools into handing over their lives to the ideological cult.
I do not EVER trust anyone who promises me free shit to vote for them. I trust the ones who tell me how they're going to make the government LESS powerful and intrusive, and guarantee my rights. I want only the guarantee of opportunity to make my way for myself.
The more a politician promises to hand you, the more they intend to take away. And no government grants itself powers it does not intend to abuse.
As an example of the latter, the FISA court. The first I learned about it, I was very displeased. I saw immediately how it was certain to be misused for political purposes as merely one bad official to claim a source of information was verified and NO ONE would dispute it.
Rod Rosenstein admitted that openly in his testimony in front of the Senate. The whole FISA system should be dismantled. It has never stopped terrorism, but has been used often to go after American citizens.
5276504
Their socialist was different, NATIONAL socialist is not for nothing.
They made sure companies were beneficial for the German people.
Take corporatism, but instead of companies pulling the levers of the nation for its own benefits, its the state that pulls the levers of the companies for the nation's benefits.
5281662
Are you... actually defending Nazis?
5281759 I think he is. There are a few like that.
I despise every form socialist mutates into: fascism, communism, and a few minor others which are so feeble they tend to collapse in a year. They are all rooted in the same false narrative and based on jealousy, hatred, and revenge.
Socialist ALWAYS claim they want 'justice'... and when they get what they demand, well, they take over parts of Seattle in open insurrection and terrify the populace, beating down any who resist them.
Not this time. Not while I have a breath left and a drop of blood in my body. I see the danger. I see the evil. It's my job to destroy it.
5281891
SOCIALISM AND FASCISM ARE DIAMETRICALLY OPPOSED CONCEPTS
AND ALSO THE CHAZ IS KICK ASS. I BET YOU ROUTED FOR THE BAD GUYS IN LES MIS!
5281759
If saying basic truth is ¨defending¨ then be my guest. I am merely saying what their ideology was economically.
5281932 Your pathetic Soy-viet Union will soon collapse into violence. The factions are already forming.
Show me a single socialist/communist uprising that DIDN'T result in mass-murder.