On the Aging and Development of Equus Sapiens

On the Aging and Development of Equus Sapiens
or, "Why pony ages are nonsense"

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Spoilers for "Where the Apple Lies"

With the airing of "Where the Apple Lies", and thus the revelation of more Apple family history, I have concluded that pony ages are pretty odd. I'm going to focus on cutie marks as a marker of development, since they have been implied to occur at similar ages in most ponies, roughly coincident with the beginning of adolescence.

Let's begin with what we know (or can reasonably infer), not accounting for the new episode:
1. Fluttershy is one year older than Pinkie Pie
2. Fluttershy, Applejack, Rarity, Rainbow Dash, Twilight Sparkle, and Pinkie Pie all acquired their cutie marks within a few days, at most, of each other
3. Scootaloo, Apple Bloom, Sweetie Belle, and Diamond Tiara are in the same class at the same school, implying they are close to the same age (though the small size of the school grants them some additional leeway here)
4. Granny Smith was present for the founding of Ponyville, at what appeared to be a similar age to the main cast in the present (she was still dependent on her parents, unlike the main cast, but this can be attributed to their nomadic lifestyle and the small size of their community)
5. Applejack was the last in her class to get her cutie mark, as was implied to have been the case for many members of the Apple family
6. Rainbow Dash was the first in her class to get her cutie mark, despite the presence of at least one colt at the same flight camp already in possession of a mark; taking Rainbow at her word, they must have been in different classes despite being of apparently similar age

In "Winter Wrap-Up", Twilight states, "Ponyville was founded by earth ponies, so for hundreds of years they've never used magic [to wrap up winter]". Some have taken this to mean that Ponyville, and by extension Granny Smith, must be centuries old; personally, I think this statement is just ambiguous enough that we can interpret it to mean that earth ponies in general haven't used magic to wrap up winter, rather than specifically the ponies of Ponyville.

Adding in "Where the Apple Lies" gives us some new information:
7. Applejack had already acquired her cutie mark before Filthy Rich married Spoiled Rich (nee Milk), which was presumably before the birth of Diamond Tiara
8. Applejack's proportions in the flashbacks are similar to Fluttershy's in "The Cutie Mark Chronicles", suggesting that they were of similar ages at these times; if Applejack and Pinkie are the same age, then about a year separates these two time periods
9. Big McIntosh has visually aged between the flashbacks in these two episodes. By the latter, he is much closer to his present appearance, suggesting he has reached the end of adolescence. This would make him about six years older than Applejack (just beginning adolescence in the latter flashbacks), assuming ponies develop similarly to humans

That ponies and humans develop similarly is a pretty big assumption, but ponies are closer to us than to their real-world counterparts in many ways, so I feel safe in extending the comparison to ages.

Already, we notice something strange: if Applejack and Apple Bloom earned their cutie marks at the same ages, then Applejack is at least twice as old as Apple Bloom. Let's suppose Applejack is 11 years old in the flashbacks in "Where the Apple Lies", making her 10 in "The Cutie Mark Chronicles". Let's further say that Apple Bloom and Diamond Tiara were born later that same year, before AJ's next birthday. That makes Applejack 21 in the present, while Big McIntosh is 27 and Apple Bloom is 10. That is a whopping 17-year difference in age between AB and Mac, and an 11-year gap between AJ and AB. Now, such long gaps are far from unheard of, but it does seem a bit odd for a farming family to leave such a pronounced gap.

This also means that Spike must be older than Apple Bloom, but probably not by more than a year or so. If AJ and Rarity are the same age, then the age difference between Rarity and Spike is about 10 years. This would go some way towards explaining why Rarity doesn't reciprocate Spike's affections; she's twice his age.

Now, over the course of the first three seasons, we know that at least one year has passed. It would be a bit odd for it to have been more than one, given Celestia's comments on the Summer Sun Celebration in "Princess Twilight, Part 1". The Equestria Girls movies imply that only a few months, at most, have passed between "Princess Twilight" and "The Cutie Re-Mark", and even "To Where and Back Again" probably isn't too far removed from Twilight's coronation. However, Flurry Heart was both conceived and born sometime between (one hopes) "A Canterlot Wedding" and "The Crystalling", which must therefore be separated by a period of at least nine (possibly eleven) months. We might reasonably allow that the episodes of the first three seasons are not presented in chronological order all the time (as evidenced by the rapid changes in season that would require at least two years if taken in order) and grant that the timeline is tight, but at least possible.

Putting everything together, we can establish tentative age ranges for several characters in the show at the present time:
Big McIntosh and Cheerilee: ~27
Fluttershy: ~22
Applejack, Rainbow Dash, Pinkie Pie, Rarity, and Twilight Sparkle: ~21
Spike: ~11
Apple Bloom, Scootaloo, Sweetie Belle, Diamond Tiara, etc.: ~10
Shining Armor and Cadance: 23-26
Flurry Heart: <1
Sunset Shimmer: 23-26 (she was Celestia's student before Twilight and has apparently been living in the human world for all of highschool so far, which we can assume has been about three years, though we don't know how long she was Celestia's student)
Pound and Pumpkin Cake: ~1
Granny Smith: ?
Filthy Rich and Spoiled Rich: 30-40 (can also apply to most of the "older" adult population of Ponyville)