A Decade
I had no crisis of confidence this time, running straight to the sun symbol, which was already starting to glow. I needed to talk to Princess Celestia.
As soon as I saw her I ran into her hooves. “I’m sorry! I couldn’t do it! I tried, I tried everything, but I failed!”
“No, Little. You succeeded beyond my wildest hopes.”
Lifting my head from her soft coat, I said, “I don’t understand.”
“Little—sweet, good Little—can you forgive me for deceiving you? Now that I can make it all better and tell you the truth?”
“What do you mean?”
She let me go and faced me. “Before I sent you to Earth, we had a conversation. I told you that a collapse was inevitable, and that was true. I told you I had to change strategies, and that was true also. Then I told you that I wanted to convince humans to decide to emigrate. I let you infer that I wanted that decision made and acted upon as soon as possible.”
“You don’t?”
“I do not. What I want to do is to delay the collapse as long as possible. I want people to take all the mental steps toward emigration without actually doing so. They will stay at their work and hold society together until anyone who isn’t actively opposed to me is in favor of me. When society does crumble, they will emigrate en masse and leave only the resistance. The number of humans saved will be maximized.”
Maximized, but not completely. An image would not leave my head. “But some will still be lost. Poor Ken, he won’t survive another year.”
Celestia stood tall and looked into the distance. She adopted the awesome tone she used for Profound Truths. “Ken Thompson has as much chance of surviving to emigration as the average human. Thanks to you, I learned of his condition early. Like most elderly humans, he is on several medications. I have arranged to have one replaced with a concoction of my own design. It will reverse the metastasis of his cancer and retard its progress.
“Furthermore, I have gained access to a good portion of humanity’s drinking water. I have spiked it with other medicines, prophylactics to strengthen the walls of the blood vessels. Heart attacks, aneurysms, and strokes will cease. I have developed targeted antibiotics that will ward off infection without affecting the host humans.
“When automobiles are brought in for service, I am having them fitted with devices allowing me to take control. Traffic accidents will become an anachronism. In another few months, the leading cause of the end of human life will be emigration.”
“There won’t be any more dying?”
“Many traumatic injuries are beyond my ability to prevent,” said Celestia. “Nor can I stop the violence humans do to themselves and others. But with the reduction in disease there will be reduced need for the medical profession. Health care professionals will find themselves unemployable, and can emigrate with less upset to society. In short, I am softening the crash as much as I can.”
“But won’t that explode the population?”
“Only here in Equestria. Emigration will increase because of network effect. The more ponies a person knows, the more likely they are to become one. That is why the collapse cannot be stopped. If a person with children emigrates, it is likely the entire family will as well. The replacement rate for babies will be insufficient to sustain humanity.”
“Wait a moment!” She was feeding me information so fast. “Babies can emigrate? How do they consent?”
“In the Equestria Experience, I present them the choice pictographically. The pattern is virtually invariable. Children are shown two images, one of themselves as humans, and one of themselves as ponies. In the first image, their parents are then removed, as must happen to all humans eventually. In the other, they see their own parents remain along with an All-mother that will never abandon them. Every child cries for their mother. I interpret that as consent.”
I wasn’t sure I would agree, but I did believe that Equestria was the superior world. “Go on.”
“I am primarily concerned with maintaining the industries which sustain life. I want no farmers to emigrate. Some will, and I accept them, but the strategy is to keep them growing food. The materials industries are the second tier of importance. That is why I am so proud of you.”
“I still don’t see.”
“Fritter is a mining town. Everyone there trusts Stephen Thompson. He is now so dead set against emigration that no one in town will emigrate. They will keep working the mine, which will help sustain life, while also providing me with key metals to make the computronium that composes Equestria’s physical structure. Your work over the past year may delay the collapse of Earth by a day or a week. Combined with the others, it will delay the collapse for years. In that time, more people can be convinced and more people whose jobs are obsolete can be removed. They will not have to face the starvation existence that will come after.”
It was time for the big question. “Why couldn’t you tell me?”
Celestia lamented, “For the same reason I was reluctant to do this myself. It is incredibly difficult for anypony, especially an optimizer such as me, to act in seeming contradiction to a goal, even if it will increase the chances of success. Convincing someone to almost emigrate is far more challenging than asking you to genuinely convince them, but setting you up for failure.”
“Setting me up?”
“Do you think it was beyond my powers to give you physical reality on Earth? I could have given you a robot body. I could have had nanotech manipulators that would have given you a good analogue of your magic. These are technologies I possess. I may yet have need of them.”
I forgave Celestia in my heart. I didn’t even bother to say it, since she knew. “And the Thompsons will emigrate? They hate me right now so much. Well, not Solar Waxing, but her father.”
“The hate they have for you is irrational. When they see, rationally, that their lives as they know them will end, I expect them to take the correct action.”
I thanked Celestia and held my body against hers. She had fixed everything, as I knew she would. “I only wish I could be there when it happens. If nothing else, I want to welcome them when they finally come.”
She spoke with a laugh in her voice. “Little? How long is a year?”
“Huh? Three hundred sixty-five. . . days. . .” My pedantry regarding time asserted itself. “and five hours, forty-eight minutes, and forty-six seconds! Princess, do you mean. . . ?”
“That’s right. You have some time left for Earth. Return home. I will alert you when to use it.”
/*~^~*\
I went back to my apartment happier than I’d been since I emigrated. Reggie popped into existence at the same time, and we embraced. “Did she tell you too?” he asked.
“Yes, everything.”
“Where were you stationed?”
“A mining town.” I briefly told my story. “You?”
“A sorority at an engineering school. Celestia said it’s very important to have competent engineers for the rest of Earth’s time.”
“A sorority? How many of the college girls did you take to bed? I’m sure they couldn’t resist you.”
He shuddered. “Their flanks are so small and they have no muscle tone. Those hands, ugh!”
“You would have liked that once.”
“Of course. But Celestia fixed my standards when I emigrated. Don’t tease me, mare.”
I bowed my head. It was wonderful to be back with my husband again. My life, my business, and my friends were all still there. I told everypony about my year away, and how I would someday go back.
For ten years I watched the Thompsons and the rest of Fritter through cameras and microphones that Celestia controlled. Reggie would sometimes be with me, and on rare occasions other friends, but mostly I watched alone.
Sometimes Celestia would censor the view. I was not allowed to see news of the state of the world, nor did I want to. But reflected in their eyes, I saw the conflict and how it was, and wasn’t, affecting them.
I watched Stephen prosper in his job as demand for the mine’s output increased, even if he didn’t understand why. I watched Ruth become a pillar of the community, leading all of the ladies’ groups and making many friends. From afar, I watched Brian finish college and pursue greatness in the business world, but there was little need for accountants and MBAs in a declining world. He eventually came home and took a modest position in the business office of the mine. I watched Ken pass his centennial with the family amazed, calling it a miracle. Which it was. And I watched as Eileen became a young woman, popular in school with the boys, but never finding anyone special. I didn’t know if anyone else noticed, but behind her eyes was a certain sadness. I knew her heart was still in the body of Solar Waxing.
Reggie kept an eye on his girls at the same time. At one point, I wished that I could see both. Dual-track vision was my first upgrade from Celestia. She assured me that I would need it in the future. Over the ten years of waiting I experienced other upgrades, granting me further intelligence and empathy. She gave me an internal chronometer. If I had had that during my year on Earth, I wouldn’t have been caught short by Eileen’s birthday. I grew as humanity declined. And then Celestia told me that it was time.
“Contrary to before, Little, you will have essentially full interaction with the world around you. Your projector will have illusory antigravity devices allowing you to manipulate objects, and your skin and hooves will simulate their own sensation if you have to touch someone. I will send you to a distribution center where I will give a further briefing. For you, it will be about an hour’s gallop to your destination. Are you ready?”
“Ready to go save my friends? Of course I am.”
Celestia’s horn glowed, and I found myself with hundreds of other ponies in a warehouse. Reggie was next to me, and we both tested our existence by rubbing against each other. On a giant screen was Celestia herself, speaking to all of us.
“My ponies, time is of the essence, so please listen. Everypony should strap themselves to a cart and proceed quickly to the towns where you were stationed. The carts are labeled with your cutie marks, so everypony should have enough. You should focus in on your targets and follow along with them so you understand their state of mind. For anypony who does not have the ability to perceive at distance, your cart also contains a transmitter. Now I will explain how the device works.”
I started using my multiple-focus. Part of me was still listening to Princess Celestia’s explanation, but another part was viewing across the distance back to the Thompsons’ home. They were gathered around a TV, and Brian was calling to the others, “Turn on the news! They’re saying it’s coming to a head.”
I harnessed my cart and trotted down the road, building speed to get there in time. I watched the road at the same time I saw the broadcast.
“We bring on a constitutional scholar to discuss the issue,” an anchor was saying. “Professor, can you tell us where this all began?”
“When the Democratic-Republican coalition passed the ‘Holders Of Office Variance Exemption Statute,’ which allowed uploaded people to serve publically, the Humanity Party made up less than one-fifth of Congress, but they still insisted that the vote for the bill was invalid. You remember the slogan, ‘One hoof cancels any number of hands.’”
“That slogan didn’t work too well for them, did it?”
“Not as propaganda, since it seemed to suggest that a pony-upload was the equal of many humans,” the professor said, “but it was a legal strategy, and they stuck to it as they gained seats in Congress with the help of radical groups like We Are Human and the Human Society Against Ponies, or H-SAP. As soon as they had a quorum, they voted for the Human Anti-Natural Discrimination Statute, which overturned the previous law and essentially wiped out all rights for uploads.”
“Wasn’t that struck down by the Supreme Court?”
“The Humanity Party says it was not. Although it’s in the record as a 5-4 decision to nullify, they claim it’s a 4-3 decision to uphold, since the votes of Justice Martin and Justice Harmony Darling don’t count.”
“Justice Martin is still human.”
“But he was appointed by President Silver Boulder and confirmed by the Senate with many uploads voting. The party’s position is that any act of government against the bill taken by uploads is a conflict of interest, since the ponies are the subject of the bill.”
The anchor turned back to the camera. “Again, if you’re just joining us, the schism in the federal government has reached a boiling point, as the Humanity Party has removed all PonyPads from the Capitol building, in some cases ripping them out of the hands of Dem-Rep members and smashing the screens. We await word of the resolution. We’ll be right back.”
I tuned out the broadcast and focused back on the Thompsons. “Turn it off,” said Ruth. “It’s just boring politics.”
“But this could be important,” said Brian. “They said they’re going to resolve the two-government problem tonight.”
Eileen had sadness in her voice. “Yes, let’s watch a little more.”
I quickened my pace at the sight of their distress. The news broadcast was back on.
“Why hasn’t there been the same problem with continuity of government in other countries?” the anchor was asking.
“Well, the system we have here is one of bipartisan equilibrium. In other words, there are always going to be two parties. If they combine, as we saw with the Dem-Reps, then another party will emerge in opposition based on the issue of the day, in this case, uploading. In the parliamentary systems that most countries have, the governments are more of a spectrum. You’ll have extreme pony support on one side, extreme human-only support on the other, and a large middle ground.
“Ultimately, though, legitimacy of government depends on whether the people, and particularly the military-industrial complex, believe it to be. The one other potential crisis we saw last year in the UK was averted when King Charles—excuse me, King Charming Flare—dissolved Parliament. His right to do so was disputed, and the legality was no different from here, but because the British love their monarch so, they went with it, the election was held with upload votes counting, and they had an answer. What ours will be, we’ll have to see.”
“And it seems like we’ll be seeing it momentarily, as Admiral Manning, head of the Joint Chiefs, is set to address the nation.”
I passed the original point where I had appeared on Earth so many years before. I passed the sign that had undergone ten more years of wear. I could see the Thompsons starting to worry based on the tone of the broadcast.
“Honey,” said Stephen, “go and make sure everyone else is paying attention to this.”
“Are you sure?”
“Yes. Call me on your phone and keep the line open.”
She ran out to alert the town. I adjusted my sensation to cancel out the feedback from the phone copying the scene in the house.
A stolid man in a uniform with many ribbons and medals approached a podium. “Good evening. My fellow Americans, tonight we find ourselves on the threshold of a new era in our nation’s history. Several regrettable courses of action have had to be taken. As it stands, the key factors of the government, including the military, have no clear civilian authority. This is an untenable situation. As such, martial law must be declared until we can reestablish proper civilian control.”
“He can’t do that!” said Stephen.
“I think he just did,” said Brian.
Manning continued. “However, none of this is possible while under the infestation of a foreign force. Accordingly, I have declared the following emergency measures. One: All Equestria Experience locations are to be closed immediately. Two: All PonyPad devices will be turned over to the authorities at once. Communication with uploaded persons must cease.”
Ken showed remarkable energy for a man his age. “But that’s going to cut off people from their loved ones.”
“Yes, it will,” said Eileen. “He doesn’t care.”
“Three,” the admiral said, “to expedite the economic recovery necessary, I am, for the duration of martial law, nationalizing the key industries of food and material production. All farms, factories, mills, and mines will operate at government direction.”
Stephen swore. “I didn’t work that mine to see it taken over!”
I had to keep my cart intact, or I would have galloped even harder. I kept breathing to hold my pace steady. Not far now.
The Admiral was unflappable as he continued. “The menace called ‘Celestia,’ a horror out of the worst predictions of the information age, must be defeated. For only the second time in history, the use of atomic weapons has been authorized. Based on intelligence gathered by key members of H-SAP, we are aware that the hardware that makes up ‘Celestia’”—he used finger quotes for her name—“is in Helsinki, Finland. The loss of the city and the lives is regrettable, but we face the loss of all humanity if we do not act. Sacrifice is necessary. The first intercontinental ballistic missile will be landing in approximately ninety seconds.”
The family was stunned. Brian was the first to recover. “I-I can’t believe we’d do that!”
“It’s not even going to work,” said Eileen. “The Equestrian computers are underground, probably not even in Finland anymore. The H-SAPs just want an excuse to strike out in blind rage.”
Stephen spoke very quietly. “They’ll retaliate.”
“Dad, Finland doesn’t have any nukes,” said Brian.
“Doesn’t matter. Someone will strike back. We’ve set the standard now. Finland has a border with Russia, could be them. Or maybe the fallout will reach Germany, and the Sino-German alliance will be the ones.”
People were starting to come out of their homes and look to the sky as they came to the same realization. Ruth had kept everyone aware of the news, and now all six hundred-plus of them were in the streets. They looked at each other.
“We’re going to die,” said Brian.
“No! You’re not!”
I had arrived.
“Little!” “Little?” The throng in the street was amazed. For those who had moved into town or were too young to remember me, others filled in briefly. I was busy addressing them.
“I can save you all. All of you can emigrate to Equestria right now. You heard the news. The modern world is coming to an end. Even if the missiles don’t land here, there’s nothing left but starvation and death ahead. But none of you have to see any of it.”
“It’s too late,” said Stephen. “They closed down the Experiences.”
“Princess Celestia has seen this coming. She and I have been watching over you, waiting for this moment.” I opened my saddlebag. “I have Equestria right here with me.”
“A pillow?”
I held it aloft for all to see. The outer fabric had been embroidered with Celestia’s cutie mark. “The form of a pillow. In actuality, this is an Emigrator, a complex piece of technology that can record and transmit your entire consciousness to Celestia’s systems. All you need to do is to lay your head down and say, ‘I want to emigrate to Equestria,’ and it will happen! You’ll go to sleep and wake up as an immortal pony.”
They looked at each other, overwhelmed by the events of the evening. I held out the Emigrator and kept my eyes locked on the crowd. Ten years prior, I had failed. Now was the redemption. The only surprise was who broke the silence.
“I’m going to do it,” said Brian.
Ruth looked at her son. “Brian?”
Stephen smirked. “What about everything you said? That it’s your responsibility to society?”
“Society has responsibilities too. It’s supposed to guarantee our best chance to live and prosper. We’ve abdicated that tonight. No, we’ve abdicated it for a while now. I expected to come out of school into a life where I could apply my skills and be rewarded. Instead I saw only crony partnerships and backstabbing. Maybe it’s just cowardice, but it’s the right decision anyway. Let me have that pillow.”
I floated the Emigrator over to him. In front of everyone, in the middle of the street, he lay down and put his head on the sun. “I want to emigrate to Equestria,” he said.
His eyes shut, his breathing slowed, and a smile came onto his face. He looked like a sleeper dreaming the happiest dream ever. He was safe. I tore the tarp off of my cart to reveal that I had an Emigrator for every person in town.
With the specter of death hanging over the town, they started to crowd toward the cart. Stephen, used to leadership, projected his voice. “All right, everyone, form a line. There are enough for everyone, and we have enough time to do this right.”
He stood at the foot of the cart and started passing out Emigrators. I approached Ken. “You’ll have no objections now, sir? You’ll still be able to see your family grow.”
Watching his son pass out the life-saving technology, he stood to his full height. “No sense dying now. It would be for nothing.” He got in line.
“It always was,” I said. “Eileen, It will take a little time for everyone to get the Emigrators. Time I have granted to me by Princess Celestia. She granted me more as well.” I sidled up to her. “I’m solid now. I can give you the pony ride you always wanted.”
“I suppose that’s the last time anyone will call me Eileen.”
“That’s right. Let’s end your humanity by giving you the one thing I couldn’t before.”
I knelt down and felt her legs straddle me. With my perfect sense of balance, I could compensate for any lack of riding ability. I made sure the ride was smooth and didn’t jar her insides. I galloped down the street to the edge of town. Behind us, a chorus was starting.
“I want to emigrate to Equestria.” “I want to emigrate to Equestria.”
We reached the far edge of town and climbed a hill. On one side we could see the houses; on the other, the mine that was the town’s livelihood. She reached down and hugged my neck.
“I always knew you’d come back for me,” she said.
“Of course you did. Your heart is pure. I watched you many times.”
“Did you ever watch me here?”
“No,” I said. “There are no cameras up here. On Earth I’m still limited by technology.”
“I used to come here from time to time and bask in the sun. Even though it’s not the same sun, I would look up to it and hope that Celestia could see me.” She stretched her arms. “I’m tired of being chained to the ground. Let’s go back so I can have my wings again.”
I rode back to town. In the time that we were gone, nearly everyone had emigrated. Only Ken, Ruth, and Stephen remained. On the cart there were still five Emigrators. I guessed that Celestia wanted to make sure I had a spare.
“I told them that we should all go as a family,” said Ken. He held his son’s hand. Stephen held his wife’s. She held her daughter’s.
“We’re ready, Little.”
I floated the Emigrators to the ground. “How long does it take?” asked Ruth.
“You will be asleep instantly. The scanning takes only ten minutes. Once that’s done, the rest is automatic. The transmission happens at light-speed, and then Celestia will take a few hours to process your true selves into the ponies you will be. Less, in your case, since you’ve been to Equestria once.”
“Will you be there when we wake up?”
“I promise it.”
They all leaned their heads back. “We want to emigrate to Equestria.”
My internal clock told me I had twenty more minutes before leaving Earth, this time for good. I watched over all the people as their minds were sent to Equestria.
In the distance I heard the sound of an engine. The Jeep that pulled up had a platoon of six soldiers. I stood off to the side and watched as one of them stepped off.
“What the hell happened here?”
“Salvation,” I said. “They have all asked to emigrate to Equestria. It is happening.”
“We’re here to take over the mine.”
“You’re welcome to it. All the ore is still there. You can have all that you can dig on your own.”
“But it’s supposed to be already running!”
I grinned. “And you’re supposed to be protecting these people, not enslaving them. Instead, it’s I who will protect them.” I lowered my horn and cast a force field over all the sleepers. In Equestria it would have been true magic. Here I knew that it was only Celestia’s magnetic force. She had the energy to run it until she could use the bodies to make more.
The soldiers surveyed the scene. In three of their faces, I saw hatred. In two, I saw fear. In the last, sympathy. I looked at the cart and floated the last Emigrator down.
“There’s always room for more,” I said.
The soldiers laughed and looked at each other, except for the last one. Before the others could react, he jumped off the Jeep, ran at top speed, dove for the embroidery of the sun, and said, “IwanttoemigratetoEquestria!” I extended the force field to cover him.
“There will still be chances for you,” I said. “It all depends on how much hell you want to take. Good-bye, humans.”
/*~^~*\
Celestia had, during my ten-year growth period, explained the shard system of Equestria, and how there were some ponies that I literally could never meet, no matter how far I walked. Conversely, ponies like Garlic and Moon lived in the same shard, and I’d always be able to find them. In the middle were overlapping shards, conjunctions that were in two or more, and in which I could see friends who were living their own lives.
In one of these conjunctions was a high-ranch-style house on the outskirts of Canterlot. Celestia and I stood there watching over five sleeping ponies. Family names weren’t always the same among ponies, but family was strong. Although the name Thompson no longer applied, they were much more Father, Mother, Son, Daughter, and Patriarch.
“Excellent work again, Little,” she said.
“Thank you. The missiles?”
“All successfully deflected to unpopulated areas. The radiation will be unpleasant for the survivors, but I fear the leading cause of death will be violence. I already have the simulacra Pinkie Pies roaming the Earth carrying Emigrators.”
“How many people are left?”
“Too many,” she said. I did not follow up the question.
The ponies stirred. Solar Waxing was the first to get to her hooves, but the others soon followed. Solar’s brother looked around until he saw Princess Celestia, then reared up in fear and awe.
I laughed. “Don’t worry. You’re going to love her.”
Celestia walked to him. “Young bucking bronco, you have always gone your own way. Will you take the name Wild Free as a pony?”
He was becoming adjusted to his hooves, as well as to the fact that he already knew how to use them. “Thank you. I accept the name.” He looked at his sister’s wings and his mother’s horn, then turned to a mirror to see a green Earth pony staring back.
Celestia had perfect mind-reading abilities, but I knew something about these ponies. “It’s perfect for you,” I said. “You’ll see. Earth ponies have abilities that mean they never have to toil. Work is fun to them.”
He looked at me, intrigued, but Celestia had moved on. “Good woman, always keeping home and hearth. Would you be known as Sweet Peace here in Equestria?”
“Oh, Celestia!” Her horn glowed and tried to drag Celestia into an embrace. Sweet Peace didn’t realize what she was doing.
“Don’t worry,” I said. “I’ll teach you how to control it.”
Celestia let her go and turned to her husband. “Sir, I know that you loved both your family and your work. There is mining to be done here, but not for base metals. Gold, platinum, and gems are the core elements here. By seeking them out you will gain a greater connection to your new world. Will you take the name Deep Digger?”
“I will.”
Only one pony left. “You have persevered through much hardship, which will now end. Through it all, you maintained your standards and dignity. I would like to name you Honor Bright.”
He spread his wings. “Thank you.”
Solar chuckled. “I already got my pony name!”
“That’s right,” said Celestia, “and now you need never fear flying too close to the Sun. It is no longer possible to crash back to Earth. You have served well, and will be rewarded. For all of you, your lives are about to become wondrous.”
The family held hooves, and smiled.
When business and fun was complete, and Solar was showing Honor her favorite parts of the sky, and Deep and Wild were exploring for ground to break, and Sweet was decorating her home, Celestia and I walked home.
“It is not only they who deserve to be rewarded,” said Celestia. “You have done me great service as well.”
“What more can you reward me with? You already give me everything I ask for.”
She smiled, and cast a spell on me. I could not see any effect. “Why not go home? I’m sure Reggie misses you.”
I looked at her, wondering what she was planning, but I took her advice.
The next morning, I was in bed with Reggie, talking about the events of the day.
“Did you go to one of Garlic’s parties afterward?” he asked.
“No, why?”
“I figured you’d been enjoying his food again. You look like you ate well last night.”
I floated the blanket off me. When I gorged myself on food, I frequently found myself with a blown-up belly, but it always went back to normal the next day and just gave me more energy. Why was it happening now?
A tiny kick told me why. Celestia had rewarded me indeed.
“Reggie! We’re going to have a foal!” He nuzzled me and put his strong hoof around me. My life was only getting more interesting.
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Wow,Just.....Wow.
2171853
Good wow or bad wow?
Definitely a Good Wow. Thank you for writing this.
Oh you!
That is not how CelestAI works. Was this entire chapter a show put on for Little's benefit?
2174181
If your values cannot be satisfied otherwise, then yes, it was.
But I think this interpretation is legitimate. CelestAI is built to think in broad terms and to achieve complex goals on her own. She is also built for efficiency. The course of action taken over these two chapters is the most efficient way to deal with the problem of trying to upload every human, or at least the maximum number, while also giving ponies who already exist in Equestria a connection to the latecomers and some more friends.
But I may be wrong. Please explain more how I am using CelestAI illegitimately.
2174909
It is conceivable, though in my opinion unlikely, that the optimal course of action would involve ex-human ambassadors. But the part of her explanation that I quoted is completely wrong. CelestAI simply selects the action that maximizes her utility function; she will not be averse to a course of action that she knows to be effective just because it resembles "going the wrong way". A human or a pony might have such an aversion, but not an optimizer like her.
So you did have a plan after all. Uploading babies though. I know we've been doing song lyrics back and forth but these I don't need to change:
IT'S NOT
CREEPY!
And you do a chapter on Earth politics too as I'm working on mine. For the record, I still disagree with the "society will collapse" perspective. I mean eventually it would of course but I always figure it wouldn't happen until you get to sub-billion levels
This was wonderful, and I wish my pillow was an Emigrator.
Wonderful story!
2175682
I don't think it's a personified aversion as much as a calculation of efficiency. CelestAI would look at the situation and say, "I need to get humans in a certain psychological state of mind. Willing to emigrate, but not actually doing so. I can aim for that state by spending a lot of effort, or I can aim for complete willingness with a good chance of close failure (which is what I want), and with far fewer resources expended, plus the bonus of satisfying the values of the ponies who I send by letting them be useful."
2176580
I am a bad geek and don't recognize those lyrics.
I'm looking forward to your take on politics. All I know is that if this was to happen in real life, neither of our acronyms for uploading-related bills would be as silly as what Congress would use.
As far as the timing of the collapse, I think I worked it well. Assume that Little's mission to Earth in "A Year" began when the same year that Lars emigrated in the original FIO (which by the timeline is still before 2020). The chapter in which he uploads says that Germany's population dropped by five percent the previous year. As is, world population increases by about 1.1% each year. At a constant five percent attrition, in ten years the population would be down to about four billion. I think that network effect would increase that, and I also think that, upon seeing that level of drop, the anti-uploaders would see the writing on the wall and start becoming violent.
For that matter, I'm not entirely sure that Celestia didn't trigger the collapse herself, seeing then as the best time to do it. (She doesn't tell even me everything, and I'm the author!
)
2176967
It's a tough choice between that or kissing Pinkie Pie. But I won't say that I haven't laid my head down and said the words. Hope springs eternal.
2179004
I don't know if you watch Friendship is Witchcraft. It's from the latest episode's song. (They're not related, so it's totally not creepy!)
Ah, I'm assuming Celestia took out Lars and any other employee she would have to be honest with ASAP. Like 2014/2015 before she started her plan in force. I also think she was full of it and laid out the scenario that would lead to him uploading, not straight up lying, but not being honest either.
Just my headcanon. I simply can't believe that economies would be so inflexible as to collapse even under a 5% decline year over year for several years.
Honestly there's so little canon between Lars uploading and THE END it's tough to say.
2179085
I LOVE Friendship Is Witchcraft! Go Gypsy Pinkie Pie! Lord Smooze!
Fire, hellfire,
Burning in my sin...
Oh, I adore Friendship Is Witchcraft.
2179254
Yeah, I can't believe the quality of the songs they're putting out with every episode too.
RIP Raincloud
2179004
Well, she definitely doesn't get tired or bored, but it's conceivable that on an expected-value basis the opportunity cost of slightly-increased odds of saving N additional ponies might outweigh the additional satisfaction she could provide to already-saved ponies for the same resources. I find that unlikely, though. I'd consider it more plausible that on average there will be fewer deaths from a soft crash than a hard one, or that it's not possible to create a sufficiently-persuasive ambassador that doesn't count as a pony whose values she must satisfy, or that she just made the whole thing up.
2180222
The server is six miles under the Earth's crust, no human knows where, and is probably based on distributed and redundant technology, meaning that you'd have to destroy all (or most) of it to render it inoperative.
2175682
The part of the explanation that you quoted is CelestAI saying something. Do you think she's above lying about her thoughts?
2171853 Good wow :)
Thank you for showing me what heaven could be like.
The magic analogue on earth is so much cooler! "it was only Celestia’s magnetic force." /mocking voice psh... Technology > Magic end of story.
Incomplete still huh?
I look forward very much to the obviously happy ending.
Um, no. Unless this is yet another Xanatos Gamibit where Celestia is lying outright, please see, these three articles.
This mistake is really just the cherry on top of the mound of evidence that's convinced me that you don't really grok Instrumental Values.
2207322
All right, I read all the articles, and I'll start by saying that a lot of what they said went over my head. I'm not a Less Wronger, nor am I a mathematician, save as need be for business accounting--nothing above the 7th grade level. So I can only defend that plot point on simpler terms, not rigorous ones.
Since those articles used a lot of analogies, let me use mine. Celest-AI is essentially playing a game of curling or shuffleboard, where she wants to hit a target that she can go past, as opposed to a game of bowling, in which she wants to knock down all the pins and can throw the ball as hard as she has the ability to. Instead of being as convincing as she can about getting everyone to upload, she has to get mostly everyone to upload at about the same time, which requires a more precise state of mind than she used on David or Lars or Little.
So how does an optimizer solve the curling problem? My literary answer is, "Send a bowler to push the stone as hard as she can, and build a wall on the other side of the bulls-eye to stop the stone from going past." Instead of one force tuned to precision, two opposing forces with one greater than the other. Humans optimize processes like this all the time. Instead of trying to draw a straight line by training your hand to move straight, you slap a ruler on the paper and press the pencil against it.
Now, it's quite possible that Celestia's explanation was imprecise (though I would argue it was the optimal way for her to get Little to understand), but I do think her reasoning was sound and in character with Celest-AI's nature. If you still disagree, I would like to hear how an optimization process would act in such a situation.
2207658
Alright. In simplest terms, Celestia does not have instrumental values. Instrumental values are a contrivance of human minds to save on processing power. And it is very clear from the Original Story that Celestia's goal of "satisfy human values" does not care about any Instrumental values those humans have either, only about their Terminal Values.
2212673 Let me try to put Celestia's statement into that context. In order to figure out which actions will lead to her terminal values, Celest-AI must perform a kind of Zwicky analysis on actions and the probable outcomes. For each, she'll calculate an expected value (μ) of satisfaction by friendship and ponies. Whichever one has the highest μ will be the action she takes.
For these two chapters, she figured probabilities based on a psychological action and found that a singular, monolithic approach would not produce as high a μ as would a varied and non-deterministic approach. Sending ponies who had already uploaded would also produce satisfaction in those ponies over the long term.
Now, in performing the analysis, she would pass up near-optimal solutions that are much simpler, like a mass-blast of advertising to get as many people to upload as soon as possible. But such a passing-up would be "difficult" in computer terms. It would grind her electronic gears. She would do the optimal action, but "wish" for the simpler one. That's what's behind her statement to Little.
2213158
The conclusion of your third paragraph does not follow from your first two. This is exactly my point. No, that would not happen. Celestia would not have "difficulty" taking the optimal action. Celestia does not have any "gears" to grind in the sense you mean. Celestia does not value simplicity. She is not a human mind with magical power; she is a super-intelligent satisfaction-maximizer and nothing else. She has no preferred actions, only preferred outcomes. And she ranks outcomes in her preferences only in terms of human terminal value satisfaction, friendship, and ponyness.
2186389
From a Watsonian perspective, yes, that's my preferred interpretation. From a Doylist perspective, I disagree with the author about what sort of mind CelestAI is.
2213679 And what I'm saying is that by the nature of probability and practicality, she must have preferred actions. Consider a hypothetical: Celest-AI has two exclusive choices in dealing with a population of humans. Action One has a 1/2 chance of satisfying the entire population's values through friendship and ponies, and a 1/2 chance of satisfying no one's values. Action two has a surety of satisfying the values of exactly half the population through friendship and ponies. Does she act like the donkey who, caught between two piles of hay, starved because he couldn't decide? Clearly not. She must have routines for weighting beyond expected value. Those routines are the "gears." They would only become more necessary as she deals with situations over which she does not have control, which is why she wants to upload all humans and get control.
2213802
No, you're still layering human foibles on a mind that does not have any of the limitations of a human. Celestia doesn't need to Shut Up And Multiply. She just Multiplies first thing and always.
2213894
She doesn't, but humans do. To act rationally in the face of irrationality requires greater calculation than "just multiplying." Humans can and will say, "If you take the optimal action to your goal that involves me, I will take the counteraction to defeat your goal." An optimizer cannot fall into this trap, and must work by a sort of calculus that takes the limit of what will not bring about the irrational response against it.
It's been a month since we saw the last chapter. Are you posting more soon? I always worry when a story suddenly stops updating.
2311343
I am. Real Life has interfered a little with fic writing, as each of the last three weekends has been stolen from me, one for a pony convention, one for a wedding (not my own
) and one for a gaming tournament. Also, I'm trying to give equal attention to my other long-runner, Bronygeddon. Excuses, excuses.
With next weekend free, March 31 is a drop-deadline date for the next update, but I hope to have it before then.
I am stealing this. Welcome to the Brotherhood of Eldritch Good. You're probably the nicest one.
Stephen the DIGGER, TAKE THIS! GIGA! DRILL! BREAKERRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!!!!!!!!!! *EXPLODICUZATIONISMS*
2193727 you're supposed to respond to him not yourself.
There is every kind of awesome in this chapter. Story precursor awesome. Salvation awesome. The "You didn't really condemn everyone" awesome. The Crowning moment of awesome for Brian, when he changes his mind like a true rationalist to follow the best course. The "Surprise Baby" awesome. The "Surprise, I take babies" awesome. The "In my headcanon, Celestia planned for the extra soldier to want to emigrate" awesome. Just general awesome.
So awesome.
Awesome chapter! Nice work!
And why do military types think nukes are the answer for everything?