Spike of All Trades

by Ariamaki

Chapter #...#?

- - - -

Spike knew that something was wrong as soon as he started to descend into the calm cycle of meditation.

Well.

What should have been the calm cycle of meditation. The world around him was shaken, shaped, in a way he could not understand. Surfaces were jagged where he expected curves and fluid where stability belonged. Something like Ponyville but entirely different stretched out in the distance, with a really heavy emphasis on stretched. At first he thought it was a product of his unsettled mental state, but he realized that the Gamer's Mind probably wouldn't allow that either...

Which meant this wasn't meditation.

No haven safer

He was dreaming.

Could it have been the mental exhaustion of the day, the frustrations, the distrust in his own abilities? Spike had a feeling it wasn't any of those things. Said feeling was backed up by the strangely chaotic nature of the surroundings... the sounds in the air... and a figure in the distance, right on the edge of ‘town’.

than our town.

Discord cavorted through a field of small buildings, each malformed in its own special way. Some of them were lopsided, and others were grotesquely engorged. A few had been split into individual towers or stacked up in offset slices, while one entire block had been lumped into a single groaning superstructure. Around all these architectural nightmares, the figure of the (seemingly not very) imprisoned lord of Chaos cavorted.

"Well hello Spikey-boy! Seems like you've come to me with a decision to make, hmmm?"

No place more barren

It could have been Gamer's Mind tamping down his reactions again, or maybe this really was what Spike had wanted. He went to bed looking for an answer, some guidance... And now here it was.

"...Yeah. Maybe you're a figment of my imagination or maybe you're real. But either way you're Discord. I guess if I have a problem involving random chance you'd be the not-a-pony to see on the matter... Even if that just means confronting my own subconscious thoughts dressed up in your skin."

The serpentine stunt-puller behaved himself, more or less, while Spike spoke: He did take the time to float over and wedge his claw-and-paw into one of the sliced buildings... But rather than toppling, the side of it came away like a slice of cake, which Discord happily chowed down on. He cleared his throat (‘cleared’ as in turned it briefly transparent) before giving a reply.

"Turning into quite the philosopher, my little Gamer! But enough chit-chat: Bring out the goods."

than to lay my life down for a friend.

Spike looked down at the steel charm that spontaneously appeared in his dream-self's claws, turning it over and passing it between them. An almost worryingly detailed unicorn horn, carved from shining grey steel. He didn't even need to Observe to see its description here in this dream: Everything just worked. The bottom of the box taunted him just as much as Discord's goading words.

Unihorn
Provides a new skill and improves Dragon's Breath... but you are not powerful enough.

Failure Chance: 9%

This was what had been bothering him: The chance of failure. All the unique and strange potential in something like this, and his system decided it needed to be like that. Growing up with Twilight meant he was no stranger to biases and preferences for chance or stability, and frankly? If this was a one-of-a-kind consumable, especially one with a permanent benefit... He just didn’t know if he could take the idea of it failing.

Even though the draconequus (hopefully) couldn't see the text box (or even more hopefully wasn't real), Discord / the figment of Discord chuckled when he / it saw the horn.

"Oh Spike. Ponies just don't seem to understand probability! They complicate it with things like chances and odds, ratios and differences and permutations. As a dragon, you’d be a prime candidate to grok the reality of the situation just a bit better. Really get to the heart of the matter."

"...Go on."

No sweeter pleasure

Discord levered his two arms back and forth like the bars on a scale, weighing out something invisible. With almost anypony else (except maybe Pinkie) Spike would have said ‘metaphorically’ weighing, or even just weighing ‘imaginary’ items. With this guy? No, he was weighing real things. Just not real enough to see.

"The truth is, there's always only two ways a thing like this can go. Either it works-"

Failure Chance: 0%

"-or it doesn't."

Failure Chance: 100%

Spike’s eyes flicked back and forth as the box changed before his eyes: One state and then the other. There was no moment of transition, no process of change. It just blinked instantly, 0 then 100, one hundred and then zero.

He watched it fluctuate for a little while before sighing.
"...Are you saying luck doesn't matter?"

Discord shot him a look so withering that Spike would have been startled awake... if he weren't fairly sure he’d put himself into this dream on purpose.

"I'm saying nothing matters more."

than the one they burned down.

The box continued to flicker back and forth as Spike watched, never settling on any value between the two extremes. There was only success and failure. It was a binary decision. Was it? That was the answer this whole thing was pointing at. Discord, Spike's imagination, the system or his dream or whatever... Seemed to be saying there were only binary decisions: Either he acts or he doesn't, either he makes it or he breaks it. The chances and odds don’t really matter, nor do his thoughts leading up to the decision: In the end there is only the result.

The smile on Discord’s face was a lot wider than the face itself, and the air was filled with static.
"So go on 'whelp', give it a shot! Try your Luck."

So that was where ‘Discord’ stood on the matter: Do it, and let the chips fall where they may.

Which meant the only question left to Spike was just... How did he feel? How would he handle it?

No greater love

Spike consumed the charm without a second thought.

-but they that are sick.

Comments

[Inucroft1]

hmmm

[ANW]

Something tells me the Spike didn't roll a one.

[Herald of Opera]

I want to say that some of that bolded text is out of order, but... Discord. The whole damn system is out of order, "order" itself is a lie we tell ourselves so we can sleep at night.

[Kichi]

Maybe Spike should ask Discord to just do something about the nonsense in black

[silvadel]

Nothing wrong with having a single use item with a 9% fail chance due to your level, and waiting to use it until you have leveled enough for it to be 0%, or at least a lower number than 9.

The 100% or 0% thing is a fallacy. It would be easier to show it by having the thing show 0% 9 seconds out of 100 and 100% 91 seconds out of 100.

Even with quantum mechanics where probabilities occur, the particle as a wave is a lot more likely to stay on your side of the barrier than tunneling through it, although given enough time it will tunnel through.

[Archaon]

It would be rather interesting for the whole thing to fail at this point.
Just because it would be so damned plot-convenient for him to 'beat the odds' and succeed.

It'd be much more of a twist if this obvious setup ended up defying our expectations.

[Black--Soul]

No haven safer-than our town.No place more barren-than to lay my life down for a friend.No sweeter pleasure-than the one they burned down.No greater love-but they that are sick.

Were did that come from?
As for Spike... He Has my full support.

[Black--Soul]

10576296
Damn fine sentance. From a movie perhaps?
10576467
Discord seem to see all in a 50/50 chance. Pretty shitty if you ask me.
Luck,effort and talent are more worth than a 50/50 situation.

This chapters music should be this:

Lyrics fit 100%

[Cyrus Windstrider]

Really enjoying where this is going, overall! Gotta wonder who finds pleasure in downvoting pretty much every comment though.

[Booster Spice]

Discord in the dream realm roaming free, or just in Spikes dream realm to concentrate whats allowedtoleak from petrification?

One the best probabilities Ive seen is the Pottasium 40? decay, which is said to be so long due to it occuring through an extremely illegal transition function so very low chance of randomlyoccuring?

But Ive seen these values before.

Chaos Oscilators.

Hopefully the unbreakable horn will end up in a location that doesnt cause public problems, but I stillhavent seen that tag or rating on the story yet.

[Papyrus Zest]

10576565
I think you're so close
No haven safer: Then the one they burned down
No place more barren: Then our town
No sweeter pleasure: Than to lay my life down for a friend
The last you got right.
How you had it felt to hopeful to match the rest.

[Black--Soul]

So... Will this charm make Spike... Horney?

[SophiaBlaze23]

10576565
It's "The Rain in Soho," by The Mountain Goats.

[Vaven Myar]

"Oh Spike . Ponies just don't seem to understand probability! They complicate it with things like chances and odds, ratios and differences and permutations. As a dragon, you’d be a prime candidate to grok the reality of the situation just a bit better. Really get to the heart of the matter."

Wow never seen grok on this site