I retract the main points of my blog post on covid-19 · 6:26am Mar 30th, 2020
Thanks to everyone who criticized my post on covid-19. I still think the analysis I made was well-justified, but it certainly wasn't clear, and didn't adequately deal with death rates.
I was rewriting the article to be more balanced and less conclusive when I was flummoxed by something no one pointed out, which should have been obvious from the beginning: The number of positive cases and deaths is already greater than predicted by the models.