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Bad Dragon
Group Admin

You can watch the price of oil in real time here:
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/Future/CRUDE%20OIL%20-%20ELECTRONIC?countrycode=US

Oil isn't important just for the energy stocks, but also sectors (transport benefits from cheap oil) and geographical areas (Russia profits from high oil prices while India and China profit from low oil prices).

When choosing an investment, Oil is something to keep an eye out on.

Bad Dragon
Group Admin

Oil has seasons, also. Just look at this chart:

We're now in the time of oil's seasonal growth.

Now compare that with this chart:

Long stagnation usually results on the explosive break-out. Either up or down. My bet is that it's going up; and very soon, at that.

Edit: Brace yourselves. It's comming

Bad Dragon
Group Admin

Oil is expected to hover between $45 and $60 per barrel. When the prices go up, USA starts up the new technological process to get oil from stones, that's why there is an upper limit to how much the oil can grow.

Bad Dragon
Group Admin

Oil dropped by 10% last week.
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/Future/CRUDE%20OIL%20-%20ELECTRONIC?countrycode=US

I believe this is the bottom. I don't expect it to go any lower than this.

Bad Dragon
Group Admin

WTI Oil
Look for $56.50 a barrel by early 2018.

Source: Zacks

Bad Dragon
Group Admin

Kuwait's governor for oil had a speech in which he suggested that OPAC deal will persist when they meet next time. That's why the price of oil went up. The problem is America which is increasing oil-gathering and ruining the efforts of the rest of the world.

5906137

It doesn't really look like oil is going to go back up to where it was any time soon. Shale oil is possible now so there's just tons more oil coming in. Is only a matter of time before other countries other than the US start producing shale too.

Bad Dragon
Group Admin

5906147 I think you're right. When the price of oil increases, slate oil production becomes profitable. We'll never see the prices of oil above 100$ ever again. Cheap oil seems to be the future.

5906155

It'd take a long time and a lot of inflation, anyway. But between that and the rise of solar and grid storage, I probably wouldn't be on oil long-term personally.

Bad Dragon
Group Admin

5906167 Same here. Still, alternative energies are having some hard time because of the cheap oil. They're still the future, but they might not be as near future as we used to believe. Oil is still the cheapest energy resource, and it seems it will stay that for quite some time.

5906180

Well even without solar and wind grid energy is going to come online and lower the price of oil either way. Right now energy costs different amounts through the day but once we get more storage that'll flatten out cause people can draw energy at any time of the day (when its cheaper) and use it later. So that means people using less energy and thus oil through the day.

The other thing is that solar still isn't a fully developed technology and it's price is falling due to effeciency increases rather than increases in supply. It's hard to say how much it will fall, but the rate of solar expansion has been consistently underestimated for decades now.

Bad Dragon
Group Admin

5906199 Still, it costs you to store energy. It only costs you oil if you want to make energy on the spot. The storage isn't a solution. It's more like a patch for the alternative energy weakness. It's more of a workaround than an actual feature. Surely, it will be viable in the future, but I don't think it will wipe oil away, especially since oil is twice as cheap as it used to be.

Bad Dragon
Group Admin

Have you heard the good news? Russia expressed interest in lower oil production. So too did Saudi Arabia. This will straighten OPEC resolve to keep up the deal they made. Oil loves news like this.
https://www.dailyfx.com/crude-oil

a deal to cut crude supplies in order to prop up the market would be extended from the middle of this year until March 2018.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/15/us-treasurys-higher-on-oil-prices.html

Bad Dragon
Group Admin

The price of oil is expected to rise to $60 by the end of this year and up to $65 - $70 until 2019.

Bad Dragon
Group Admin

OPEC agrees to extend output cuts for 9 months. Investors expected a year or deeper cuts and were disappointed. Oil plummeted as a result.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-reverses-some-losses-as-investors-get-ready-for-opec-meeting-2017-05-25

Bad Dragon
Group Admin

The Trump administration’s decision to opt out of the Paris climate change accord caused bulk of the profit-taking as this could encourage more oil drilling in the U.S., possibly intensifying the global supply glut. Investors also fretted over the continued rise in domestic production thanks to soaring shale output.

Source: https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/263269/oil-amp-gas-stock-roundup-ensco-snaps-up-atwood-dakota-access-pipeline-in-service?cid=EC-ENP-20170608-FC02-A

Bad Dragon
Group Admin

Qatar is being blocked by surrounding countries because of its support of terrorism. Middle East crisis is always good for oil prices, however, the above comment weighs more, so oil prices still plummeted.

People of Qatar are flocking to stores in preparation for the future food crisis. Qatar can only produce 10% of its food needs, and when imports dry up...

Bad Dragon
Group Admin

It turned out that the deal with Qatar was bad for oil because investors are now expecting the breach of OPEC arrangements. The increase of OPEC oil production implies this, also.

On another news, the reserve of oil was supposed to fall by 3.5 million barrels. It rose by 3.3. Yet another bad news for oil.

However, with the fall of oil price of about 20% in one month, one wonders if this might be a good buying opportunity.

Bad Dragon
Group Admin
Bad Dragon
Group Admin

USA expanded the number of oil pumps to 6000. When they start working, it will mean 100 000 barrels of oil per day. That does not bode well for the price of oil.

Bad Dragon
Group Admin

Have we seen the bottom of oil? I'm not so sure. OPEC is pumping more than what was agreed upon. USA is increasing oil production. Asia imports less and less oil every year.

The only way for the price of oil to increase by a moderate amount would be if the reserves of oil were lowered and I just don't see that happening this year unless the oil price drops so low (under $40) that shale oil production would no longer be economic.

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