Let's face it. This is an old bull. They usually last for 4-5 years and this one has been going on for 7. The recession is definitely on the way, but will the bull turn to bear this very year?

Any info on this is welcome. If you are fast enough to run to the hills, you can save yourself up to 50% of your wealth.

If you see some early signs of the bear coming out of hibernation, let us know.

Here's a take on it from Zacks mailing news:

3 Possibilities for the Stock Market

Stocks retested the important support level at 1870 again on Friday. This time making it all the way down to 1857 before bouncing back to 1880 at the close.

At this stage there are 3 possible outcomes for stocks:

1) Bear market on the way with 20-40% further losses from here to eventual bottom.

2) Bull market still in place. This is just another scary test with stocks rising back to the old highs and a notch beyond by years end.

3) Repricing of risk. This is where investors think they are paying too much for current corporate earnings. Thus, they trim 10-20% from share prices to get valuations in check. Growth stocks usually see even bigger haircuts. This technically is a continuation of the bull market. Just a quick and painful detour to start the year.

Reity, which outcome will it be?

I know it seems scary out there and emotions are running high. But given all the lessons from history it says that a bull is harder to kill than most realize. So scenario #2 is the most likely outcome followed by #3.

Yes, this could be the start of the next bear market. And if you look around there are more than enough negatives to point out. Yet, how many of those negative points are truly different than the recent past? And each time they came up in the past the bull market steam rolled over them as the positives outweighed the negatives.

Adding it altogether, I now find myself at 67% long given that the bullish outcomes are still the most likely. However, I also have an inverse ETF in the mix just in case the bear does want to come out of hibernation. I will keep adjusting as new information rolls in and will do my best to help you chart a profitable path through this investment jungle.

This is from Zacks Newsletter:

This is now the 3rd straight year with small caps underperforming. It is either a sign of a great opportunity to profit from their rebound. Or foretelling of further risk aversion which helps usher in the next bear market.

I sense the next big move for the market will be critical. Breaking down below 1800 would likely get fear to such a level that a bear market would almost be a foregone conclusion. Whereas a rebound back above 1950 would start to restore faith in this bull market.

Edit 1: I keep looking at the S&P 500 today. It doesn't look very well. I wonder what the closing price will be.

Edit 2: Whew, that was close. The faith of the world was at stake and we managed to turn the tide. Recession was averted for another day.

But what will tomorrow bring? By Buffett, this is better than watching a horror movie. It's a real life thriller, unfolding right in front of your eyes. Markets are magic!

From Zacks:

Most troubling are the results from transportation firms which are showing a marked decline in activity. I point this out because typically transportation is one of the stronger performers in the latter stages of an economic expansion. So their weakness now is worth noting.

Yes, we are not in a recession. But there are more signs of slowing growth and sentiment is terrible. So either we start to climb the Wall of Worry soon or it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy of more downside to come.

This looks bad. I've been getting spam from Zacks for years now and I've never seen them call for a recession. This changed today:

My investment track record shows the ability to go both long and short the market depending on the evidence in hand. And over this past weekend I put the pieces of the puzzle together to realize we are indeed rolling towards the next recession and bear market.

Markets should have rebounded already. There's not really any provocation for them to fall. The fundamentals look decent. Yet, stocks are sliding even lower. I don't know what to make of all this. I wasn't expecting a recession for at least a year to come.

The following month may look very ugly. Brace yourselves!

This bull is getting old. Know that it won't live forever. No bull does.

Then again, I could be wrong.

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As long as money has influence over politics, cycles of recession and growth will continue.

After every crash, new regulations are put into place to prevent it, then in the prosperity that follows, the people who benefited from it gain more influence and see opportunity for more profit through deregulation. They lobby and get rid of the regulations keeping things stable, and for a little while they make extremely good profits... until the system collapses again and the cycle repeats.

Are we in the midst of a recession?

Apparently, not.

Be mindful of the levels at the year 2008 (we've already surpassed them).

There's 4% chance of recession in the next 3 months.
9% chance in the next 9 months.
60& chance in the next four years.

We have a problem, and it has a name: Debt

If every U.S. household allocated 100% of their income to paying off the nation’s total personal and governmental debt burden, it would take approximately six years to accomplish the feat (this calculation uses aggregated median household incomes). Keep in mind, this assumes no expenditures on income taxes, rent, mortgages, food, or other necessities.

source: https://www.seeitmarket.com/lowest-common-denominator-debt-government-personal-economy-16558/

Don't fool yourself with 'this time it's different'. There will be a recession. It's just a matter of time.

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Good one.

Let's take a step back and look at the big picture. Here is the equation for a recession:
Lower economic activity = lower profits = *lower share prices
The average stock market decline during a recession is 34%.
The average US recession only lasts about 13 months while the average expansion enjoys a healthy 63-month reign.
Stocks will continue to advance (occasionally interrupted by corrections and pullbacks) until there are signs of the next recession. Right now the odds of a looming recession are very low.

Still, the risks do exists. The P/E ratio is getting quite high (which is bad)

Also this:

Fed rate increases and Trump uncertainty in 2017 mark two points of worry for all bears. China debt fear, Brexit,
global oil price dynamics, Europe QE, and Japan negative rates get focused on outside the U.S.

Source: Zacks

After 2008 financial crisis, many regulations were put in place to prevent anything like that from happening ever again. Well, Trump seems very poised to tearing all of them to shreds. All the ingredients for our next financial crisis are being set in place. The boulder is now perched on the top of the mountain. The only question is, which event will set it rolling down.

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Isn't that what happened with Bush too? He took down all the regulations that were meant to keep the market from crashing and then the market crashed? Seems like a trend.

5986804 Either way, the banks are very grateful to Trump. If the worst case scenario happens, they'll be bailed out right away, anyway. It's a win-win scenario for them.

Warning sign for the approaching recession is amassing of debt. In the last few years, the most warnable seems to be China where debt grew tremendously and the housing sector is blown up to unsustainable levels.

The rest of the world seems more or less stable for now. Well, maybe Brittain might have some rough time if Hard Brexit hits. That also wouldn't be good for EU as a whole. This scenario actually isn't as unlikely as it may seem to you. EU claims that Brexit will cost EU 100 000 000 000 EUR (100 billion) and that Britain should pay that cost. Obviously, Britain doesn't want to hear any of it. There's also a chance of EU making an example of Britain by forcing the Hard Brexit as a warning to any other country that considers exiting EU.

All in all, however, the chance of recession kicking in this year is still low. For now, it pays to be greedy.