The All-American Girl Saga 236 members · 17 stories
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Taking into account the newest information....

Well, since the deceased stamp over Orange Box and Minty is from the point of view of the Equestrian government. Just look at Orange Box, "Presumed deceased by changeling operatives during, or after the second assault on Canterlot". We all know what really happened to her. That makes Minty more suspicious. It's presumed that she died in the nuclear attack. While it is true that her unconscious body was really Broken Armor, it's far from impossible that Nightmare Moon saved her from that fate.

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It's presumed that she died in the nuclear attack.

Except it wasn't a nuclear attack, it was a conventional strike. You throw enough explosive power at something and it will form a mushroom cloud.
mushroom cloud is a distinctive pyrocumulus mushroom-shaped cloud of debris/smoke and usually condensed water vapor resulting from a large explosion. The effect is most commonly associated with a nuclear explosion, but any sufficiently energetic detonation or deflagration will produce the same sort of effect.

(Reposting from the original blog post.)

Orange Box is the only confirmed kill, as I share the belief of others here that Minty isn't dead until we actually see a body. Plus she had one of the greater reasons to hate DJ personally, and a lot of NMM's actions seem to target DJ directly.

Bon-Bon is VERY likely, her offer story showed that the Nightmare could pretty much lead her around by the nose and she'd go along with it.

Star Swirl seems...unlikely. Yeah she's heavily pining for Sweetie and into some questionable stuff, but hopefully things with Rumble will let her move past that. Plus she just doesn't seem to have the rage that the others have.

Champagne/Sunset 1. Believe it or not I think she's actually the least likely candidate. She wants to seize power for herself and Blueblood, and while she might be effectively working with the Nightmare through the Purehooves and the Saddle Arabians, I think she knows that being a host would just be exchanging one alicorn's rule for another and leave her nothing but a puppet.

Still, I wonder if the Nightmare is actually rotating hosts. We've seen all the potential hosts except Minty in their civilian lives since Nightmare Moon appeared publicly in the attack on Fillydelphia, and none of them seem to have had excessive absences that people close to them have commented on, yet NMM seems to have plenty of time to consort with her allies around both globes. My theory continues to be that she's rotating hosts, and that Orange Box just happened to draw the short straw for the Canterlot attack. Granted this does actually lend credence to Minty being dead, since if she wasn't she'd be perfect for a full time host since everyone thinks she's dead, and thus has no reason to maintain a civilian life.

Shortened repost of my comment on shins blog about host speculation:

Opinions on Candidates who cant be/probably arent the nightmare host:

Orange Box
Was a confirmed host but subsequently died at the end of Book 1 so she literally cannot be involved any more.
In short deader than dead.

Champagne Dreams
Busy with schemes of her own and probably unwilling to give her body to the nightmare,
Sunset clones are still a possibility though.

Opinions on Likely Candidates:

Has past grievances with DJ and is the candidate most directly connected to her (through her mother, Rarity). Apparently died early - midway through book 1 in the bombardment of Filladelphia. No body or remains were recovered though which leaves her still viable as a candidate. Status is currently unknown but is the most probable of the candidates.

Oddly Absent for large portion of main story despite being connected to Lyra (one of the most important characters in the story) via being her ex-wife. Her suspicious absences combined with tense opinions of human culture lead her to be the second strongest candidate after Minty in my opinion.

Candidates who I am unsure about:

Star Swirl
I did originally consider her to be one of the stronger candidates for being a host but a comment from NachoTheBrony on how she has resisted nightmares temptation in the past has made me reconsider my opinion. Thus while she is much less likely to be a candidate I dont feel I am able to remove from the list entirely hence I uncertain about her.

Damn, why I thought it was a nukie all these years then :applejackunsure:


Damn, why I thought it was a nukie all these years then :applejackunsure:

Well, Fillydelphia was nuked, as the verb goes "to attack with overwhelming force, especially by means of an atomic bomb".

Damn, Shin must have trolled me then :rainbowlaugh:

Well, no atomic bomb was actually used, but the place was nuked.

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