The subdued quiet of an iron-grey winter morning in Neighcastle was interrupted as a gleaming cortege of carriages swept through the city. Ponies making their way to work or having breakfast looked around as the procession clattered its way from Neighcastle Station to the Trotthorne Hotel on the banks of the River Thyme, the luxury hotel where Princess Celestia had convened a conference on strategy.
The wealthy ponies who had their apartments on Quayside might have gone away from their breakfasts for a moment and looked out their windows with interest as a host of ponies in glittering, unfamiliar uniforms descended from the carriages. The officers paused for a moment to take the salute from the small honour guard before rushing inside. One however, remained on the veranda for a moment.
Twilight Sparkle, wearing a red uniform that was still stiff and uncomfortable, looked out over Neighcastle. To her left the great arc of the Millennium Bridge, build to commemorate a thousand years of Celestial’s rein, stretched white and graceful over the River Thyme. To her right was the older, sturdier-looking iron through-arch of the Thyme Bridge. Over the river and beyond houses and flats and theatres and stadiums she could see the steep, grassy hills of the Galloping Gorge, and even from here the black dots of pitheads were visible amid the green.
“Twilight?” Spike appeared at her side.
“This city’s built on mining you know, Spike,” said Twilight thoughtfully.
“Mining?” asked Spike enthusiastically.
Twilight smiled weakly. “Coal mining, I’m afraid Spike. It exports coal by boat and rail to just about every city in Equestria. Or at least it did: there’s only one railway line from Neighcastle, and it goes past Ponland. If Ponland declares for Blueblood, what’s going to happen to this city? To these people?”
Spike rested a claw on her leg. “All the more reason to end this war quickly. Now come on! Everypony’s waiting!”
The conference had taken over the Trotthorne Hotel’s entire Grand Ballroom. An immense circular table of polished oak dominated the room, and dozens of ponies sat around it, bicorne hats resting next to them. Present were the entirety of the Equestrian General Staff, as well as the commanders of the eleven newly-created field armies, which would prosecute the strategy decided here today. Every single one of them had a look on their face that Twilight knew well: wearing shiny new insignia that spoke of them being promoted well above the ranks they had held during the Changeling War to fill positions that nopony had ever believed would need to be created, they all felt like impostors.
The great white double doors of the ballroom swung open and a sentry strode in. “Their Highnesses Princess Celestia and Princess Luna!”
Everypony hastily got to their hooves. Into the ballroom strode the two Princesses of Equestria, one white and gold, the other blue and dark. They both wore the uniforms of the Royal Guard and carried the epaulettes of Field Marshals.
“Good morning, everypony,” said Celestial calmly. “Please be seated. It is best we do not delay.” She took her own seat next to Twilight. Next to her, it was not difficult to spot the bruises and cuts from Blueblood’s attack on her that were still healing, nor miss the dark circles under her eyes.
“Field Marshal,” Celestia said.
Field Marshal Prince Shining Armor, Commander-in-Chief of the Forces, got to his hooves. He wore the green uniform of the Army of the Crystal Empire, a bright gold aiguillette, and a row of glittering medals, the longest in the room. Alone among the staff, he seemed to exude confidence and authority. He did not meet Twilight’s eyes.
“Thank you, Your Highness. Mares, gentlestallions, welcome. The purpose of today’s conference will be to develop a strategy to ensure the decisive defeat of the Parliamentarian regime that has illegally installed itself in Canterlot.” His eyes swept over the conference table. “Let us at no point today seek to minimise or forget the significance of what we are doing here. We are not drawing arrows on maps. We are not sending a blue rectangle to push against a red rectangle next to a dot labelled with a city name. What we decide here today will cause ponies to die, and not just soldiers. We have a duty to get it right.”
He turned to his right. “Chief of Staff, the situation, please.”
General Sir Ration Bag, recently appointed Chief of Staff to the Commander-in-Chief, stood and placed a crystal on the table before him. He tapped it gently with a shining hoof, and a huge map of Equestria shimmered to life in the air above the conference table.
“The Parliamentarians have solid control of Canterlot, Trottingham, Fillydelphia and Gasconeigh, as well as Lake Saddle down to its southern shore. They are in a position to threaten Baltimare and also have significant sympathies in Ponland and Chicacolt, though their present state of military weakness prevents them from fully controlling these territories, and their presence outside the major towns is thought to be weak. However, they possess interior lines, and so have the ability to rapidly move troops by rail to respond to an offensive faster than we can launch one. From intelligence gathered from ponies who have escaped to our lines, they are conducting significant recruiting campaigns in Trottingham, Gasconeigh, and the poorer districts of Canterlot.
“We know of several concentrations of troops: a battalion of the former Trottingham Grenadiers is based in Canterlot, while another is in Ponyville. The third remains in Trottingham as a nucleus for recruitment. Gasconeigh and Canterlot between them can raise the equivalent of six regiments, while we know of at least three roving companies being used to enforce control in the countryside, and to support Parliamentarian sympathies in Chicacolt and Fillydelphia. The whole population of these regions comes to some nine million ponies, meaning that in a total war scenario the Parliamentarians could amass an army of around nine hundred thousand troops.
“We believe that in the long term, the Parliamentarians will seek to consolidate their territory by gaining defensible frontiers, including Chicacolt to gain a chokepoint in the Rein Valley, the left bank of the Ramube, the Bitula and the Doe around Ponland, and the Saddle Hills. They are additionally likely to move against Baltimare to gain a major seaport, and from there seek international recognition.
“On our side, we have the advantage in both numbers and troop quality. We retain control of the vast majority of regiments that fought in the Changeling War, bringing our total force of veterans to just under 45,000. We also have an advantage in total population and the benefit of a larger recruiting network, such that we estimate that we will have recruited an additional 30,000 volunteers by the end of December. The total population of the areas solidly under our control comes to around twenty-one million ponies, allowing us to, in the worst-case scenario, assemble an army of two million troops. Presently, however, the vast majority of our troops are still concentrated near their regimental depots, often paired with units that they did not serve with during the Changeling War.
“To summarise, our army’s ability to fight above the battalion level is poor, and the quality of our troops will decline as, inevitably, losses are taken and they are replaced by new volunteers. This difficulty in any action we undertake is compounded by the Parliamentarians’ geographic advantages. Sir.”
“Thank you, General.” Shining Armor stood again. “Mares, gentlestallions, it is my intent that we will hold our present territories on defensible lines while building up and training our army. We will then launch multiple, simultaneous offensives into Parliamentarian territory on all sides, in order to fix their troops in position and ensure the possibility of a breakthrough. The main effort will be an attack out of Horsetria towards Canterlot down the Reinine Valley.
“The first phase of this plan, however, will involve building up the army. Lieutenant General Drill Square…” He nodded across at the new Commanding General, Army Training Corps. “…has estimated that it will take at least a year to train our new volunteers to an acceptable standard. In that time, we will operate out of defensive lines to defeat Parliamentarian attacks into our territories and launch our own raids to keep the enemy off-balance and give our troops experience. Only after this will we be in a position to overcome the Parliamentarians’ geographic advantage and expect victory.”
Celestia stared at Shining Armor in disbelief. “You would have us wait a year before we can liberate our subjects?!”
“I would have us be victorious, Your Highness,” said Shining Armor firmly. “Let Blueblood and Neigh destroy their armies against hill slopes, river banks and broken bridges! Only then can we attack!”
“Every day we delay Blueblood grows stronger,” said Luna. “This will only serve to encourage Parliamentarian sympathies in Ponland and Chicacolt. And what about Baltimare? Do you suggest abandoning it?”
“Baltimare can only be supplied by sea or airship, Your Highness. Any transport coming in would have to run a gauntlet of artillery from both Cape Forger and Cape Farrier, as well as from the surrounding hills. Holding both capes and the city would require tens of thousands of troops.”
“Yet equally it would give us a direct railway line to Trottingham, with the possibility of being supported by an attack by my troops on Chicacolt and Fillydelphia out of Prancenburg,” said Luna. “Losing Baltimare would be an expression of our weakness, and would allow Blueblood to fulfil the political objective General Bag mentioned!”
“I’m a soldier, Your Highness, not a politician. The military solution cannot be the same as the political one.”
“In this case I regard them as one and the same,” said Princess Celestia. “We cannot afford a year for Blueblood and Radical Road’s ideas to take hold. It is even more necessary to rapidly defeat them so we can turn our attention to the north.”
A cold silence fell over the room. Everypony had been briefed on what had been found in the Crystal Mountains, what it had done to an entire raiding party of Diamond Dogs, what it had nearly done to Shining Armor and Princess Cadance…
Princess Celestia stood. “I cannot accept this plan, Field Marshal. I cannot accept leaving my subjects under the control of a tyrant. I cannot accept yielding another yard of our territory. I cannot accept sitting idle when we may be attacked at any time by another enemy. I will have a new plan from you, and we will attack when winter breaks.”