//------------------------------//
// Chapter 6: Rocks Fall, No One Dies 
// Story: Friendship is Optimal: A Watchful Eye 
// by Sozmioi 
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Remy could be heard from two offices over: "...know you can take notes! Your lab notebook back in 325 was top notch! So now that you're doing real research, why is your lab notebook... you wrote ten lines in the past three months!"

Hikaru closed his eyes. There he goes again. It may be an evening during winter break so there aren't too many people around to hear it, but still.

A fragment of the grad student's plaintive response "... computer..." wafted back.

As Remy began rumbling up a crescendo of counterargument, Hikaru stood. Maybe this kid is no good, but this isn't the best way to settle it.

He briskly walked along the hall and stood in the door. Remy saw him and became self-conscious. Awkward silence fell.

After three seconds, Hikaru softly said, "By all means, go on."

Remy turned to the graduate student and said, "Go ahead."

The student... (Tim? Zach? At least it looks like it soon won't matter that I can't remember his name. A horrible thought, that! Ha!) ... opened his mouth, but dithered on what to say. He was interrupted by a loud call - "Professor Maeda!" - coming in from the hallway.

Remy raised an eyebrow. "Was that Coconut Cream?"

Hikaru nodded and began walking back to his office. "Must be urgent, but she didn't sound like she would if Kimiko were dead or anything."

Remy was right behind him. "You think so? To me she sounds kind of scared." The student tentatively followed.

The pad showed Coconut Cream, Twilight Sparkle, and an unfamiliar unicorn mare standing inside the Ponyville Library. The newcomer led off, saying, "Professors, there is a high probability that a sizable asteroid will strike the Earth in thirty-eight days. With further observation, we can refine our estimate of the danger it presents. You have ten minutes until the sky darkens sufficiently for it to be visible, and after that only forty minutes until it sets."

Remy squinted. "Just how sizable is this thing?"

Twilight Sparkle put in, "Somewhere between 'large shooting star' and 'Everyone within five hundred kilometers dies!' You can see why we'd like additional observations." Her classic slightly-manic grin flickered across her face.

Coco added, "Including with a spectrometer, for the composition. That means you. Ready?"





Thirty eight days later:

"So, you say that this shard is exactly the same as in real life as far as the sky is concerned?" The reporter, Sandsweep, was levitating a notepad and pencil, and his breath puffed out condensation clouds.

Has he been paying attention? But I suppose he doesn't want to rely on rumor. Shouldn't blame him. Hikaru/Bright Black nodded. "That's what it's for, yes. Even the terrain is essentially Chelyabinsk minus the city."

"Is this a good place to watch it? As one of the first people to spot it, wouldn't you prefer to see it in person? Or are you concerned?"

Bright Black cocked his head, mirroring Hikaru. "Russia in winter. Hmm. No. As for reassurance, I think there are enough astronomers on-site already." He gestured out across the festive crowds. "I'm here so I can see it with people..." Last he'd heard, this shard was heavily loaded, with almost a million ponies (though he wondered how many were human). "... and without freezing."

Coconut Cream, shivering even in her new heavy coat, put in, "Speak for yourself."

Sandsweep lowered his notepad. "Excuse me - are you a pony?"

She nodded. "Aren't we all?" She leaned close and whispered. "You mean 'native'. We like that better."

"Oh, right. Well, then, what with all the casual talk about Russia and such, it seems like there are hardly any Equestrian natives around, only immigrants. In fact, are you the only one?"

"Oh, we haven't quite worked out immigration, yet." That got a chuckle. "Anyway, to answer your question - you may remember that Lucy Mallet's here, as the hostess."

"Ah, of course."

"I understand we also have Celestia, Twilight Sparkle and Spike. And Rainbow Dash is in a parallel shard where she can go try to punch it without getting in the way of regular spectators, but I don't think that really counts. And... I see Carrot Cake at that stand over there. There are probably others. Would you like me to ask Princess Celestia?"

Beachberry suddenly walked on-screen. Why is she shiny? "No need to go that far! Only need a travel agent." Her horn glowed for a second. She squinted and said, "There are around two hundred seventy-five thousand Equestrian natives here, and eight hundred twenty thousand visitors. This is the largest shard ever made. And it's holding up just fine."

Coconut Cream asked, "Since when are you a crystal pony, Beachberry?"

"Oh, about two minutes ago. For the cold immunity." -- "Oh! Should have thought of that." -- "Naw, you've been busy."

The reporter asked urgently, "Wait a moment. You mean you went and ran the Crystal Empire quest?"

Surprised, Beachberry replied, "Yeah?"

He lowered the pad as he blinked. "But... wait. Are you a native or not? I just looked it up and Beachberry is..."

"100% made in Equestria. We have the same options as anyone else, just, we live here. Most of us don't think of going on quests, but some do. Remember Avant Card?"

"He was a native?"

"Didn't it seem suspicious that he was always running the same quests as you?"

Sandsweep absorbed that for a second, then readied the pen and pad once more. "So, Bright Black... where are your colleagues?"

Hikaru hated having his speech substituted, so instead of saying 'Remy' and 'Esmerelda' he substituted their pony names himself: "Quickstream is hanging out with Lucy near center stage. Mossfuzz is around here somewhere. The others aren't in Equestria. Hmm..." Anyone else I know? Thorntail... he's an astronomer, but not exactly my colleague. The others I know here, like Miroku and Tasha, aren't even in astronomy. "Yes, that covers it. And if I'm not mistaken, that's the big countdown." Lucy Mallet and Twilight Sparkle, on center stage, were projecting light across the sky, and it soon shaped into a minute timer.

In a few seconds, all the ponies were counting down along with it. It's a bit like New Years in Times Square, except that you can't see the ball until 'midnight', and it will be moving much, much faster when it shows up.

At ten seconds, Hikaru picked out Coco saying over the din, "Just like Shibuya at the new year, isn't it?"

"What? Oh. I was never there."

Right on time, the meteor streaked across the sky, leaving a cloud like a contrail marking its passage. Hikaru was shocked at the brightness the ponypad was able to put out - he actually squinted for a moment as it flared once, and then again.

A murmur ran through the crowd, probably other people reacting to the brightness as well. The natives seemingly got it even harder. As Coconut Cream took a hoof from her eyes, she said, "That was... I guess the pad did as well as it could, but there's just no way. I can't wait until you can be here properly."

Sandsweep asked, "It was silent just because it happened thirty miles up, right? The sound just hasn't gotten here yet? Not a problem in the show?"

Hikaru, though was still fixed on the last thing Coconut Cream had said: '... until you can be here properly.' What does that mean? In Chelyabinsk, or Equestria? The former would just mean I misheard something. The latter?

He caught Coconut Cream's response. She was balancing on her rear hooves and holding a pair of binoculars, looking at the board in the middle that displayed the statistics. "Only twenty three kilometers up, but yeah. We'll hear it, don't worry... Hmm. The mass was about plus one and a half sigma from Celestia's prediction. That's about plus half a sigma from the IAU-endorsed prediction."

Hikaru looked away from the pad to the computer, to check on some plots he'd brought up earlier. That's still out of the severe danger range. Good. It's big, so we don't lose face for making a mountain out of a molehill, but not too big. And we weren't so precise that we give the impression that we've got this totally under control, which we don't. This is close to the ideal it could have been given our prediction -  in some ways, even better than our nailing it.

Sandsweep had taken down what she'd said. "So the IAU did better?"

Hikaru rechecked the plots and said, "No. Celestia's prediction was much narrower. If she was only one and a half sigma off, then she assigned around 25% more probability density to this size than the IAU group."

Coconut Cream clarified, "She hit the edge of a much smaller target."

Sandsweep, though, had taken on a vacant look. After a moment he said, "Looks like the folks in the city are getting inside." Then he shook his head. "Okay, time to get back to work. Other reactions? What was it like to see that come down?"

Hikaru joked, "Almost enough for me to take up asteroid hunting."

The reporter turned to Coconut Cream; she said, "As awesome as I was expecting! Watch out for part 2: sonic boom! We've got a new countdown on."

He moved on to others nearby. Hikaru was about to ask Coco about what she'd said about being there, when an aqua pegasus filly nudged Coconut Cream, saying, "Puppy? How'd you get so big?" She had an Indian accent.

Coconut Cream kneeled down. "Hey sweetie. I'm not exactly Puppy." No kidding. Must be a nickname or something.

"Are you her mom?"

"No, but we're related. If you want, I can get her real quick."

"Please."

"Just a minute. Now, cover your ears real tight because it's going to get real loud."

The filly's ears flattened. "Is it now? It it going to kill us? Mom is real worried."

Coconut Cream put a hoof over the filly's shoulder and spread her hind legs wide to brace herself. "Not even close."

The filly pressed her head to Coconut Cream's side and covered her other ear just as the shockwave hit. Hikaru could see its progress through the crowd for the second it took to cross. When it reached Bright Black, Hikaru was again astonished at the power the pad put out - it sounded like a high-bore rifle shot, with a several-second roar following on. He himself covered his ears, and was very glad he'd decided to do this in the office instead of at home.

Everypony who wasn't braced went reeling, and everypony who'd stood on hind legs to put their forehooves on their ears fell over. Over the next few seconds, even before the rumble subsided, all were recovered.

In the midst of it all, the filly cried out, "Puppy!"

Bright Black turned and found a half-scale Coconut Cream running towards them. She oddly bore scuff marks and a stained coat, and a long divot along her side that looked a little like scratched plastic... She must be based on a physical instance of a Coconut Cream figurine! Awww.

The fillies hugged and danced. "That was all?" - "Yup! That was it! I told you!"

Then they ran off. Hikaru leaned in towards the screen, and Bright Black towards Coconut Cream; he whispered, "Was that weird for you? Seeing another instance?"

Coconut Cream shrugged. "Unusual, yes. Weird? For me, it'll be weird to be human when the time comes."

Did I just hear that? "What?" Earlier she was talking about us getting in there properly, but now she's talking about getting out.

"I think the reporters have asked us all the questions they're going to, so let's go back to our home shard. I'll explain. What we just saw isn't the biggest news of the year."