Overconfidence

by RandomBlank


The fall

Twilight sat in the corner of the train car compartment and cried. It all went so horribly wrong! Why did it go so wrong?! And on top of that, she had rejected her teacher, thinking she had it, she knew better what is needed, disdaining the manipulation, condemning the endless testing and rejecting whatever secret plans Princess Celestia had for her. How come that so many of these tests ended all right, and this one, for which she had prepared so thoroughly, went so terribly awry?!
And worst of all, by her selfish wish she had sentenced the world to many years of darkness and hate...
She cast her eye at the heavy briefcase loaded with all kinds of books that were meant to give her the upper hoof. Well, the answers to all single questions were all correct, it was something greater than the sum of all elements that didn't come together.
All in all, the only part on which she did allow Princess Celestia to have her way on her departure, the one she thought was a mockery of her skill stopped the worst of... no, I can't selfishly look at my personal surroundings and say they are the most important... it saved the last scraps from the disaster. Her five friends survived. Cadance and Shining survived, though both gravely ill. If not for Luna, it wouldn't even end that well at all. Luna, whom Princess Celestia insisted Twilight takes too once she finished with her own checklist.

She looked at her checklist.

☑ The Elements of Harmony.......................................................6pcs.
☑ The Royal Guards, Pegasi.......................................................32 ponies.
☑ The Royal Guards, Unicorns...................................................16 ponies.
☑ Expense account — basic expenses.........................................37,845 bits.
☑ Expense account — unforseen events allowance.......................5,000 10,000 bits.
☐ Transport (zeppelin or chariot)...............................................1
☑ Master Mages.......................................................................3 ponies.
☑ Books on Crystal Empire.........................................................All of them!
✔ Special Train (all-weather long-distance!)

That entry about books, "All of them!" seemed to be so mocking her. She threw another glimpse at the briefcase with books. She'll never feel the same reaching for a book again. Providing she ever gets the opportunity...
The train pulled into the station and Twilight swallowed hard. Canterlot? Already?
She went to her friends to hug them... maybe for the last time. They all shared rather similar glances. "You had it coming, Twilight. Best of luck."
The train would continue to Ponyville to bring the five home, but Twilight would need to see Princess Celestia about her failure. And face the consequences. Six guards dead. Eight permanently crippled. She didn't even know what happened to the rest!
She stepped out of the train, and there was a wing of guards waiting for her.
"Don't try anything funny, Twilight Sparkle. Princess Celestia wants to see you."

* * *

They were sitting in Celestia's private office, on soft cushions around the low table. There were two cups of tea on it, as well as several books scattered around, just like so many times during the happy times of learning. This time the books sent a cold shiver up Twilight's spine.
Celestia lifted her cup of tea and took a sip.
"Don't take this as a sign of callousness, Twilight. Tea helps me stay calm. It's hard enough for me to stay calm and I need all the help I can get currently. Thirty-eight missing in action. I didn't really foresee you'd take that many. I hoped you'd stop at two or five."
Twilight's voice was breaking as she asked. "What happened to them?"
"They are Sombra's slaves now. Now, and for another hundred years, until another chance arises."
"It's all my fault."
"Yes and no. There's a lot of my fault in it too. Why didn't I check how many you took until after your departure? Why didn't I recall most of them?"
"Because then I'd blame my failure on your..." Twilight's voice broke and she cried for a while. "...your meddling," she coughed out through tears, hating herself for uttering this word in relation to her teacher.
"I could have cut the number in half and you'd still learn your lesson. But I didn't and the current state of survivors, all the unnecessary deaths are on me. For plain negligence."
"Princess!" Twilight's eyes filled with tears rose to her teacher. "How can you blame yourself for what is entirely my fault?!"
"Twilight... If I believed it was all your fault, do you think you'd be sitting by this table with me now? Do you believe you would be anywhere but the dungeons?"
"But... but... Maybe not all of it. I mean... most of it is Sombra's fault, not mine. But it's like blaming fire for burning a house down."
"Twilight, you thought you knew better. You hoped for the best. You failed through good, though misguided intentions. Now look at me. I knew you'd fail from moment one, as soon as you began making the extra requests, and I still sent you. That writ allowing recruitment of guards... passing it to you I felt like I'm passing a death sentence on them. My innocent, faithful, trusting servants, whom I murdered in cold blood by passing them to you, a blind, impartial executioner, the only purpose of their deaths to teach you a lesson. This is why I bless that tea, because it stops me from plunging into the Sun for what I have done. There is no punishment for my crime and I will bear the conscience of it for all of eternity, as I bear conscience of several such events from the past already."
This time Twilight looked up at the princess. Her gaze was filled with so much grief, so much compassion. Celestia raised her cup to her mouth, but it shook in her white glow, the drink spilling. A purple glow encompassed it and helped it to the mouth of the princess. The short nervous sip seemed to help the Sun Princess regain some composure. She lay the cup and took a few deep breaths letting the taste sink in and calm her down.
"You may wonder why I'm telling you this. I do not deserve to share this burden. I did not earn your compassion for my horrible crime. But it is still my duty to punish you for your failure. This information, this awareness of the consequences of your actions is your punishment. You will bear the conscience of these events to the end of your life as I bear it for all of eternity. No further consequences shall be drawn. I couldn't bear punishing you any more anyway..."
Another nervous sip. The cup was enveloped in the purple glow all the way this time.
Celestia sighed heavily. "Let's go through your mistakes, point by point. Report the whole thing."

* * *

"Twily! You made it!" Shining Armor's eyes probably widened in shock though the shutter glasses hid that. "And you brought a whole army!"
"I am SOOO prepared for this!" Twilight cheered.
"We'd better get moving. There are things out here we'd better not run into after the dark."
"Hah! Just let them try!"
The column of ponies moved into the snowed landscape, Rarity generously sharing her supply of scarves with guards shuddering in the blizzard.
The column moved through the snow as Twilight shared plans of her tactic with Shining Armor. "So, he forms a cloud. The airborne guards bind him in knots. You, the scholars and the unicorns hold him with a barrier long enough for the six of us to charge Elements of Harmony. And then — BLAM! Rainbow of Friendship to the face!"
A horn-like distant roar sounded. "It's one of these things!" Fluttershy trembled.
"Form the line!" commanded Shining. The unicorns spread out, the magi took their central places. Twilight distributed the Elements from her saddlebags to her friends.
A dark cloud appeared from behind the horizon. The thirty-two airborne pegasi struggled against the wind of the blizzard in their heavy armors. Not a thousand of them could oppose this kind of power, but they weren't here to stop it, they were to amplify it — and that they could do. Twisting with the currents, they turned them into a core of a white hurricane as big as the dark cloud, and set their white funnel on the path of the incoming darkness. The cloud tried to dodge the whirlwind, but it was too strong, sucking it in, strand by strand.
The magical combatants raised their shield, a dark purple sphere containing the tainted whirl within. With no pegasi propelling it within the shield, there was nothing to keep the whirlwind running and the cloud filled the volume of the sphere, two glowing eyes glaring from it at the group.
"Ready, girls?" asked Twilight.
"Ready!"

* * *

"Did you account for all the pegasi at that point, Twilight?"
"No, not really. They were to fall back."
"Pegasi must fly in circular pattern either around or within the hurricane to maintain it. Stray from the course and the hurricane ebbs, or drifts at random. You were very close, they could not allow it to roll over you. They had to stay outside or inside. That means either mixed with contained Sombra, or flying into his mass as he approached. Both would have them pulled in and imprisoned. Only a powerful unicorn with focus on defense, like your brother can withstand within that cloud, sane and unhurt for any considerable period of time. But you're not a flier so you didn't know. My bet is half of them were already imprisoned by that point."
A drop of sweat formed on Twilight's forehead.
"...But this is moot. Had the Elements worked, they would be free. Hurt and aching and badly shocked but safe. Alas..."
"Princess, but why didn't the Elements..."
Celestia lifted a small book from the pillows onto the table. The title embossed in simple letters read

Elements of Harmony — the reference guide.

"You didn't read it whole through?"
"I... kinda... skimmed."
"Open up on the chapter of 'Applications' and read."

The Elements unleash their power only in case a chaotic interference endangers a major part of the world. They will not activate versus smaller threats — ones threatening single provinces or even big countries. They will not activate if the threat is not imminent. They are an ultimate weapon that can't be used in a pre-emptive strike or as a warning shot — they are final.
Interestingly, The Elements don't have any awareness of their own. It's only the belief of their bearers that creates the impression of scale of the threat. Misguided bearers may fire them at a roadside bandit if they are led to believe he is an ancient god returned, or may fail to fire at a deadly threat they underestimated. Nevertheless, the cost (see →Cost) is deducted, no matter what they are used against.

Twilight tried to flip to the table of contents, to see the chapter about the cost. Celestia held the book with her magic, not letting her student to flip pages.
"No, Twilight. I don't want you any more distressed than you are. Let me just tell you one should not use the Elements idly. The cost is significant. But now, as I know you don't know it yet, I prefer it to stay that way. Keep reading."

Note the prerequisite of chaotic character of the interference. It must either create chaos (forces of destruction) or bear internal conflict (cursed entities). The action the Elements perform is dissolving the chaotic essence and spreading it thinly in area wide enough that it remains harmless, while maintaining the orderly, or neutral core untouched. This way they decontaminate any entities affected by chaos. The bearers may mis-categorize their opponent as chaotic, while they may be of the Ordered Evil kind. In this case the Elements will fire, but the target will only be deprived of last shards of chaos residing in them, while their intent and corruption will remain untouched.

"I... I must have skipped over this paragraph while skimming." Twilight muttered.
"You'd still try them despite that, wouldn't you?"
"I thought Sombra is chaos incarnate!"
"Discord is Chaos Incarnate. Actually, he's a piece of rock so soaked with chaos that it gave him life and will. The species of 'draconequus' as he likes to call himself is his own invention. In fact his genus is Feldspathic Arenite. a granitic type of sandstone. But he gets very annoyed when you mention that. Now for Sombra..."
"It's his obsession with crystals, isn't it?"
"Yes. Crystals are the very essence of order, and Sombra is all about crystals. A particular, dark, devious kind of crystals, dangerous and deeply evil but still orderly to the extreme. Discord lacked kindness, generosity, honesty or loyalty. He had a different kind of magic, and more than a healthy dose of laughter, but laughter is the pinch of chaos that is needed in true harmony and so the Elements leave that alone and even restore to original. Now for Sombra... he's honest: if he tells he will kill you, don't beg for mercy. He's loyal. He never betrays these who join his forces. He's also generous towards them, taking with full hoof from the others. His magic... you had a taste of it. It's our kind of magic, only the dark part. And he knows laughter, he laughs at these suffering as his slaves... Oh, he lacks kindness, but that isn't nearly enough for the Elements to hit."
"So, I failed through my lack of preparation. I wielded a weapon I couldn't use..."
"I wouldn't say that's why you failed..."
"I know, I know! I failed through not trusting you! But then I failed again because of that!"
Celestia just sighed. "The elements went off. The expectable after-blast left all dazed, but Sombra as the most powerful recovered first, and began his grim harvest. Luna saved whomever she could, but she was only one, and she couldn't fight Sombra on herself. She had to choose, to prioritize. She saved you six, Shining, Spike and was left with enough time to save eight guards. Two pegasi, six unicorns. The rest fell victim to Sombra, these who fought were killed, these who yielded — enslaved."
"...and from there it was only a downwards spiral..."

* * *

We needed a backup plan. It didn't take me long to locate the Heart and for Rainbow Dash to recover it. I mean, if there were any traps or obstacles along the way, it seemed as if Sombra forgot some ponies are airborne. Still, to recharge the heart we needed a lot of joy, and with the injured and missing ones it was hard to gather enough high spirits. Besides, due to all the time spent gathering resources in Canterlot, we were almost a day later than we would be if we went immediately.
Still, we tried our best. We made the funnel cake and got some ponies to gather. The jousting was a total failure, Fluttershy wouldn't even start moving, paralyzed by fear. Rarity made the flag, Applejack tried to make something with the crystal berries, but it was more of hit or miss, she was too nervous and absent-minded to concentrate on the task. The tiny ewes managed to calm Fluttershy enough that she managed to bring them to the fair. Pinkie tried to play the flugal horn, but after a while even she admitted she has no clue how to do it and is utterly horrible at it. It looked like we had it under control for a time. Cadance collapsed for a moment, but she restored her strength. And after a while the Crystal Ponies began flocking to the Crystal Heart.
And then it all crashed. They would see it dark and empty, and they'd turn away. And they saw the wave of dark crystals approaching from the side of the shield. Some tried to fight, to focus on the heart. That wasn't nearly enough. Cadance tried to call them to be strong. Nothing would help. Our initial failure left us too dispirited to fight in our earnest. The advantage the added resources gave us appeared illusory once our own inner strength faltered.
It was then, as the ring of dark crystals began closing on the remaining survivors, that Princess Luna descended on us from her place somewhere in the tower and took us away, all the way to the station with her spell.
And I won't ever forget the sight on Cadance's face, as she watched her kingdom, veiled in dark clouds and black crystals blink out of existence.

* * *

"Poor Cadance, she took it hard. Another hundred years of being a guest in Canterlot, a refugee. Grabbing at unlikely jobs like a foalsitter to distract herself from thoughts about the fate of her people. But she waited well over a thousand years already, and she assured me another hundred doesn't make that much difference — that is roughly how often the kingdom reappears. I think it's thanks to Shining Armor that she didn't even cry. Thanks to him she can cope better than she would otherwise."
"But... But you said the world would be..."
"Parasprite invasions, alicorns going insane from solitude, dragons veiling the country with dark smoke, cockatrices turning ponies to stone, Diamond Dogs kidnapping our kind into slavery, even ponies trying to cheat other ponies. It's a dark world we live in, Twilight Sparkle, it was so for the past thousand years and it will remain such for another hundred at least."
"But... The kingdom was... The crystals..."
"We couldn't break the curse. Only the fully recharged heart can do it. But we managed to tamper with it. Do you think the pristine, if dull city you saw was what we encountered once we managed to imprison Sombra? Oh, no, Twilight. I..."
Celestia lifted the cup to her mouth and took a deep sip.
"Allow me to skip graphic descriptions. I really don't want to come back to these memories."
Twilight just sat silently for a while, then nodded and dared to lift her own, so far untouched cup of tea to her lips. She took a tiniest sip, trying to find the same calm her mentor would find in the drink.
"We altered the curse. We made it revert the city to a state from before Sombra's great rise. We couldn't get it to times before his rule, but still we recovered it to where the corruption didn't even begin to spread. It is reset to this state each time, and the ponies lose memory of the events of last return. But they lose more than that. More memories each time are erased. This forgetting spell, this is not Sombra's work, it's mine."
Twilight raised her gaze to the alicorn.
"Princess... Now I know better than to question your wisdom. But tell me please, wouldn't giving us just that book on the Crystal Empire history, no Elements, no soldiers, just the knowledge — wouldn't that make it still easier?"
"Twilight," Celestia frowned. "Think about the fundamental reason of your failure."
"I was arrogant."
"No. If you just turned your back on me snorting that you despise my methods, you'd still have won."
"I depended too much on resources, on goods, and too little on my skills and on my friends."
"That is a derivative of the original reason."
"I thought I had it all under control."
"That's a specific variant of it."
"I... I was overconfident in my success."
Celestia nodded.
"You witnessed this lesson once already. Applejack promised to bring full saddlebags of blue ribbons, didn't she? She was completely sure she would win all the competitions. And she didn't win a single one."
"I'm not learning from my past lessons, am I?"
"The lesson in friendship and forgiveness was well learned. But it is only when we aren't sure of our victory that we give it our best. When we know the recipe by heart, we fail by neglecting details and not putting all of our hearts in the execution. If you piece it together, struggle for each bit, and put all of your heart in it, the end result may be a wonder. If you do it by the book, you get a generic product of passable quality. This is my answer to why I was sending you to all these dangerous missions with poor preparation, on short notice and withholding details. They weren't just tests, they were all lessons, to teach you new things, to give you new strengths. You wouldn't obtain them by following instructions..."
"Still, I failed to learn the lesson in humility..."
"It's a difficult lesson and I take it over and over myself. Last time I was taking it while suspended in a cocoon from the ceiling of the throne room. So I'm not going to blame you for failing it."
"So, with the book..."
"You wouldn't learn the depth of distress of the crystal ponies. You would never realize how vital it is for the fair to be absolutely superb. You'd do a perfectly correct job of filling the heart halfway and not getting anywhere. How do I know? That's what the second, the third and the fourth team of ponies sent to restore the Kingdom did. Each knowing everything about the trials of the previous one. I needed these three failures to learn this."
"And the first?"
"About as bad as yours. The only solace I find is that I didn't know I was sending them to die."
"Did you try yourself?"
"No. At best I served as a rapid escape, last second rescue. I am powerful, and the more power you have the easier for it to corrupt you. I was forced to reach to the dark side too many times in the past. I can't risk getting exposed to that. The horn injury your brother sustained? He will have some nightmares and dark thoughts for time to time. Had it happened to me, my horn would be red already, and my coat turning the color of ash."
Celestia downed the rest of the content of her cup.
Twilight met Celestia's gaze. It bore hard sadness.
"Yes, Twilight. Tonight I try to stay as honest with you as possible. So yes, I do question it. Sometimes I doubt it's just responsibility and think it's common cowardice. You form your opinion yourself. Just take into account that sunlight is a very precious commodity. One that might bring some very high prices in case of... forced shortages..."
"So, did you ever come close to..." Twilight voice trailed off, but then seeing the suddenly distressed face of the princess, she noticed the ambiguity of the question. "To setting the Crystal Kingdom free, I mean!"
Celestia took a deep breath and lifted the cup, then drank the last drops. Even that little seemed to help and calm her down. Twilight wondered, how. Tea didn't work on her like that at all. She'd have to ask Princess some day. Providing that...
"Two hundred years ago. Cadance tried to grab the heart falling from the tower. She was too tired. She failed. But the fair, as I heard, was to die for. This time, with Shining, I really hoped that part would have gone better."
"And a hundred years ago?"
"One of the ponies running to the city slipped. Sombra consumed her whole. The rest was so mortified they packed up in the morning and ran without even trying."
"Wait, do you mean that any of us could... just by slipping..."
The glow enveloped the empty cup but it vanished without the cup ever moving. Twilight looked into Celestia's eyes, and there was a cold hardness in them. These weren't eyes of a friendly teacher. These were eyes of a ruler.
"Yes. Weighing life of one pony, or six ponies, or seven, against freedom of a whole kingdom."
"These aren't yours to sacrifice."
"You are wrong here, Twilight Sparkle. I am the princess. These are my decisions to make."
The stare was still cold, but Twilight felt the edge in the voice. The edge of pain so deep it made her shudder. She felt that under that cold shell Celestia was weeping.
She thought about her snotty, defiant refusal. About rumors of Celestia's plans to make her a royalty. How she told the Princess that she doesn't care. She hadn't realized what burden being a royalty is. That it wouldn't be a reward or a gift, but a duty of the hardest kind.
A duty that would lighten the burden of the princess just a little.
"Here, mine is still warm", Twilight switched Celestia's cup for her own, still almost full.

* * *

They lay on the balcony watching creations of Luna unveil on the sky.
"I should have asked this in the beginning. I took the answer for granted, and I was wrong. Twilight, tell me please. Will you help me?"
"Yes, Celestia." Somehow dropping the title felt appropriate. They were no longer the teacher and the student, the ruler and the subject, the goddess and the believer. They were friends, friends in misery and grief. To command life of others, to take responsibility for them. To have them killed by your mistakes. Twilight didn't taste sacrificing lives of others in cold blood yet and she was glad for this little mercy.
"Will you trust me?"
"I will."
"Even knowing that I may be sending you to certain death? That I may be sacrificing your life for something I believe is more important?"
Twilight hesitated.
"Give me a hint. Let me tell my friends good-bye when such time comes."
Celestia was silent for a while.
"Yes, I know..." Twilight continued. "You can't foresee me slipping on ice. But if you send me like you sent these scholars and guards..."
"I will." Celestia nodded, and a tear rolled from her eye. "I will."
"And..." Twilight's smiled sourly, looking up to her teacher... no, to her friend. "Is it wrong for me to believe that even in the direst of dangers you watch over us from the shadows, and take care that nothing bad happens to us in the end?"
Celestia gave Twilight a motherly look. A look of a mother turning to a child who should have known better. "Now, now, such belief could lead to overconfidence."
"Fine, I won't," Twilight stated, a half-smile, half-smirk appearing on her mouth as Celestia extended her wing and embraced her student... no, her friend, in a protective embrace.