//------------------------------//
// Switching Horses Midstream, Chapter II 
// Story: Selections From the Canterlot Royal Academic Archives 
// by Third Wave 
//------------------------------//


Switching Horses Midstream: The Political Fallout of the Cozy Glow Incident



by Nara and Pine Needle


Initially published in Congressional Quarterhorse, No. 3228


Public Release Version Ed. by Nara


Royal Canterlot Publications


[Ed. Note: Portions of this publication were originally compiled from advisory notes to the Royal Sisters and has been revised for public consumption to remove any sensitive material - Nara]


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The opening of the School of Friendship by Princess Twilight Sparkle had without a doubt strained political matters as of late. Neighsay’s opposition to the school and the refusal of accreditation was heavily supported by the opposition parties, most notably the Coronist Party and the Party to Uphold Hippocracy. While the Cheval Regent was initially skeptical of throwing the weight of the government behind the School of Friendship, both Celestia and Luna were committed to supporting Twilight Sparkle in her endeavor as a message of diplomacy and openness to Equestria’s neighboring governments. The hope was that with non-pony students, especially students from outside Equestria, a greater cross-cultural understanding between Equestria and the other states could be fostered. While the initial opposition created a rocky start for the School of Friendship, it appeared to be going well. Reports from both Twilight Sparkle herself and the heads of state sponsoring the first cadre of non-pony students seemed to demonstrate how effective the diplomatic outreach program spearheaded by Twilight Sparkle’s “friendship missions” had become. While the Coronists and the minor parties of the opposition at times could rile up enough of a fervor to stall or shoot down proposed legislation in parliament, Cheval Regent Fancy Pants was able to rein in the most unruly members of the Triple Crown Party enough to ensure the government would last through the next few years until the next general election.

However, the Cozy Glow Incident has clearly altered the political situation. At first we thought there would be a rally around the flag effect from the incident. Indeed, the threat posed by the brief Equestria-wide loss of magic was a humbling account for many ponies across Equestria, unicorn, pegasus, and earth pony alike. Reports from Canterlot and Cloudsdale indicated the quick mobilization of the guard was received very well by those highly affected by the disaster.  The relief efforts during those harrowing days in providing fresh food were lauded in many rural farming communities. The speedy restoration of magical abilities across Equestria as well saw a strong swell of support for the Princesses and the Triple Crown Party. Tracking polls conducted by Gallop even showed a brief but significant spike in ponies’ favor of non-pony creatures. The question “Are relations between ponies and griffons currently positive or negative?” saw a ten percent swing toward positive with a four percent swing toward very positive. The same question regarding dragons saw a very surprising sixteen percent swing away from negative, though this was not reflected in ponies considering dragon-pony relations to be positive. The percentage of ponies viewing dragon-pony relations as positive only increased by three percent.  This trend during and shortly following the Cozy Glow Incident has been attributed to the aid that the griffons sent to some of the border regions between Equestria and Griffonstone during the crisis and Dragon Lord Ember personally leading a dragon expeditionary force to aid ponies stuck in the mountainous regions on the edge of the Macintosh Hills. Things had been looking up for Equestrian internal and external relations with non-pony creatures.

In retrospect, we may have been too optimistic in how much the short term support would turn into long term acceptance. Certainly, many both in parliament and throughout the Canterlot-Ponyville corridor thought Chancellor Neighsay’s reversal of his position and the public announcement of the School of Friendship’s accreditation was a triumph of Celestial and Tricrowner policy.  However, the reaction of the Coronists caught many political pundit ponies off guard. With Celestia, Luna, Twilight Sparkle, parliament, and now Neighsay and the Equestrian Education Association all in favor of exploring educating other creatures in the School of Friendship, we believed the issue was settled and the government could move on to other matters of state. Unfortunately, both the Coronists and, even more worryingly the Party to Uphold Hippocracy, spun the Cozy Glow Incident as exposing a threat to Equestria’s security. Even worse, the Hippocrats and even some of the more radical Coronists spread conspiracy theories about the identity of Cozy Glow or that the non-pony students were behind the loss of Equestria’s magic. They made outrageous claims of Cozy Glow actually being a rogue changeling, or even Queen Chrysalis herself.

[Ed. note: For the sake of affirming facts and to uphold journalistic and academic integrity, Cozy Glow is not Queen Chrysalis or any sort of changeling or other shapeshifting creature.  She is simply a pegasus filly. - Nara]

Even when the opposition parties accepted that Cozy Glow was just a pony, they still decried the incident as a reason to be more strict with Equestria’s relations with other creatures. Coronist parliamentary leader Parabellum called the incident a “grave lapse in Equestria’s national security” in an address to parliament a week after magic was restored. She posited that if a “mere foal can endanger the very magic that forms the underpinning of Equestrian society, then what is to stop one of our enemies from doing so,” evoking memories of the Storm King and Tirek in an attempt to stir up ponies’ emotions when the address was distributed publicly.

The evolution of Neighsay’s view on allowing non-pony creatures to be educated in Equestrian accredited institutions only increased the tumultuous political situation created by his initial appointment. The governing Triple Crown Party and the opposition Coronist Party were both forced to issue clumsy reversals of their previous positions on Neighsay’s appointment. Fancy Pants, in his capacity as Cheval Regent and Tricrowner leader, issued a statement to the press welcoming Neighsay’s change of face and calling for a stay on the effort in parliament to remove him as head of the Equestrian Education Association. The opposition coalition of the Coronists and the Party to Uphold Hippocracy were livid, calling Neighsay’s action “a gross betrayal” of their trust and confidence, and now called for his removal. Adding to the confusion, many moderate Coronists still supported Neighsay based on personal relationships the members of parliament had forged with the EEA Chancellor. Likewise, there were many Triple Crowners who viewed Neighsay’s change of position with a skeptical eye and questioned the sincerity of his declaration. After Man O’War’s jump to the Coronists, the spectre of even more parliamentarians defecting from their parties added a significant factor to the already shaky Triple Crown government, and knocked yet another leg out of the foundation of Fancy Pants’ continuing leadership of the government.

As such, Fancy Pants sought the advice of the Princesses Celestia and Luna to discuss the matter of Neighsay’s continuing position in the EEA and the looming spectre of lassoing the potential rogue members of parliament to prevent them from bolting from the party. The Princesses agreed that with the population of Equestria and many in government already on edge following the Cozy Glow Incident, a sudden defection of one or more MPs causing the downfall of the current government would be a disaster not just for the Triple Crown Party, but for the legitimacy and stability of the diarchy as a whole. The Cheval Regent admitted to the Princesses that his hold on the mustang members of the Tricrowner parliamentary contingent was growing more and more strained with each passing day, and he was unsure how much longer he could hold the current government together. Neither Celestia nor Luna could come forth in full public support of the Cheval Regent and Neighsay, though it was clear to all in Canterlot that the Princesses privately backed Fancy Pants to the hilt, and that they as well as Princess Twilight Sparkle had forged a new rapport with the EEA Chancellor. It is still unknown which of the two Princesses first voiced the ultimate suggestion at that meeting, but Cheval Regent Fancy Pants came away from the meeting with a rather unconventional decision. One moon before the Summer Sun Celebration, Fancy Pants made the official request to Princess Celestia.

“Having taken into consideration the abrupt and impactful change in the state of affairs both foreign and domestic in Equestria as of late,” began the missive sent from the Horseshoe to Canterlot Castle. It ended with one of the most unusual and shocking political developments of recent Equestrian history. “In order to fully gauge and acquiesce to the will of the Equestrian creatures, I humbly request to Your Majesties that, pursuant to your power as royal sovereigns of Equestria, this current parliament be dissolved and a new election called.”

Princess Celestia formally answered the request from the Cheval Regent and dissolved the parliament that day, pending a snap election six weeks hence.


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It was a dangerous gambit. Not surprisingly, there was uproar from the opposition parties straight away when the election was called. The Coronists and the Hippocrats called foul on the timing of the dissolution of parliament so close to the Summer Sun Celebration. Naturally, it was assumed that creatures going to the polls so soon after Equestria’s most renowned celebration, and indeed the Summer Sun Celebration occurring during the campaign period, would benefit the sitting government and the incumbent coalition. While the Coronists and most in opposition simply grumbled about the timing while campaigning as they normally would, others took more extreme measures. The republican parties on both wings of the political spectrum decried the timing of the election as a mockery to hippocratic institutions. An extreme Unicornian restoration faction of the already far left wing Party To Uphold Hippocracy held protests outside Summer Sun Celebration locations. Meanwhile, the far right Nightmare Party peddled the additional claim that the Summer Sun Celebration itself was a desecration of Nightmare Moon and a symbol of the Celestial tyranny and the day’s oppression of the night. Despite the vehement objections of Princess Luna herself, the Nightmare Party continues to call for the so-called “corruption” to be removed from Luna and Nightmare Moon’s “rightful form” to be restored.

[Ed. note: Again, to assert the factual integrity of this document, the allegations that Nightmare Moon is the true visage of Princess Luna and that Luna is supposedly under a spell cast by Celestia is preposterous as affirmed many times by Luna herself. - Nara]

The campaign quickly resolved itself mainly around the two most obvious issues: national security with the government’s handling of the Cozy Glow Incident, and Equestria’s foreign and domestic relations with non-pony creatures as the debate on Neighsay’s reversal of opinion and his continuation as Chancellor of the EEA continued. On both issues, Fancy Pants and the Triple Crown Party government began the campaign on the backpedal. The loss of magic was traumatic, and the disaster was felt in every region of Equestria. Additionally, the disaster impacted not just unicorns and other magic using creatures but all ponies. While unicorn magic is the most outwardly visible, it is important to remember that pegasi weather manipulation and earth pony agrarian magic were also affected. Additionally, magically imbued items and enchantments also failed during that fateful three days. Coming during the spring planting season, it is likely that all of Equestria will feel the brunt of the Cozy Glow Incident for at least the next year as potential crop yields are assessed and weather patterns have to be rescheduled to accommodate for the interruption.

The Corona Party lambasted the Triple Crown Party and Fancy Pants for the disaster occurring not just on their watch, but as only the latest in a string of crises over the past years to face Equestria. The jubilation and good will the government received after the reformation of Princess Luna had now been frittered away on slow response after slow response. Throughout the election campaign, the Coronists particularly latched onto the “lack of proper military security and proactive response” to the Second Changeling Invasion and the Storm King’s Invasion in this tack.

However, the focus remained primarily on the slow government response to the Cozy Glow Incident.  In a somewhat contradictory attack on the Tricrowners, the Coronists both praised their own appointment of Neighsay by campaigning on Neighsay’s quick response in getting the information on Cozy Glow to Canterlot and aiding Celestia and Luna in mobilizing the royal guard, while at the same time lambasting Neighsay’s newfound sympathy for other creatures and calling for his resignation or removal as Chancellor of the EEA. Triple Crowners rebuked the supposed flip-flopping by the Coronist Party’s stance on Neighsay. One Tricrowner MP, Winter Wheat, notably quipped in a widely circulated interview with the Whinnyapolis Star-Journal, “the Cororists both attacking and defending Neighsay at the same time shows another thing they share with their fellow opposition party. Not only do the Coronists share a distressing disdain for our fellow creatures like their brethren the Party to Uphold Hippocracy, but they have also become fond of just that: hypocrisy.”

Neighsay was not the only target of criticism during the election following the Cozy Glow Incident. Other ponies and even non-ponies were targets as well. Man O’War continued to use his position as a prominent defector from the Tricrowners to the Coronists to raise his personal profile in a run for reelection and a call for Equestria to return to a more isolationist if not adversarial relationship with the outside world. He chided other world leaders for not coming to Equestria’s aid when the Storm King attacked, and claimed that the Storm King’s occupation had weakened Equestria enough that the international effects of the Cozy Glow Incident lay at the hooves of the other nations just as much as Equestria’s. It was speculated that Man O’War was planning for a challenge to Parabellum’s leadership of the Coronist Party should the Coronists gain a majority in parliament or be in a position to form a coalition following the election. Some of the most brazen attacks regarding magical aid, however, were on others in power in Equestria. While Celestia and Luna are traditionally seen as immune from scrutiny on policy matters except for those of the fringe republican parties, it seems that Princess Twilight Sparkle has not reached that status yet in her young princesshood. Man O’War and former Special Envoy to Yakyakistan Tuilerand, both high profile Coronist members of parliament, lambasted Equestria’s newest princess on her diplomatic initiatives.

Tuilerand in particular decried her appointment as “princess of friendship” and the diplomatic missions Twilight has been sent on. “The shifting of diplomatic policy to be so heavily focused on Princess Sparkle’s role reeks of nepotism and rewarding a favorite over a focus on achieving policy goals. Twilight Sparkle’s diplomatic ability, especially as seen with the disastrous handling of the first Yakyakistan state visit to Equestria, displays Princess Sparkle’s clear unpreparedness for her role. The clear preference toward Princess Sparkle and her colleagues in handling state visits and summits shows not only a lack of seriousness in how our current government takes the threats to Equestria from outside our border, but also displays a gross disregard for the diplomatic staff we have on hoof.”

The tactic of going after Princess Twilight shows a clear dissatisfaction among the opposition with how close the Triple Crown led government has gotten with adhering strictly to the will of the diarchy, and that both Man O’War and Tuilerand were running as members of the Corona Party in Canterlot ridings and drawing large crowds of ponies certainly demonstrated some element of disloyalty among even some branches of the Equestrian government itself. Faced with this clear message of missteps by Fancy Pants as Cheval Regent and an underlying current of worry at the direction Celestia and Luna were taking Equestria, it became clear to the Princesses that something needed to be done to reassure the public that their message of forging greater and lasting friendships with non-ponies was a boon to Equestria as a whole, even to those in the halls of Canterlot. To that effect, the Cheval Regent invited Princess Twilight to Canterlot to give a general address at the year’s Summer Sun Celebration event in the capitol. The fact that the location of the speech was in Fancy Pants’ own Epson Ashdown riding was pure coincidence.

Much of Princess Twilight’s address on the surface was apolitical and a celebration of Celestia in her role as Twilight’s mentor. Direct insertion of the Princess into a political sphere, especially at the height of a general election campaign, would have looked rather unprofessional for the Princess of Friendship and likely would have caused a scandal in itself. A closer analysis by savvy eyes, however, could point out several instances in the setup and the content of the address where it could certainly have been deliberately constructed as a subtle political message before the election to sway a last minute voting populace. The most blatant message sent was simply Princess Twilight’s support for the increasing diversity in Equestria and the benefits of building and maintaining strong ties with non-pony nations both inside and outside Equestria’s borders. While Twilight took center stage during what has since been dubbed the Friendship Address, she was flanked on the stage by six of the students of her School of Friendship. While the majority of the school’s student body are ponies, only one of the students seated beside Twilight at the address was a pony. Additionally, Twilight frequently made mention of and pointed out the students beside her, notably praising them for the resolution of the Cozy Glow Incident.

“I cannot rightfully stand here today without thanking these six exceptional students for their bravery and the pivotal role they played in discovering and stopping Cozy Glow during the crisis. While I was blind to the machinations of that pegasus until it was too late, these six bright young minds - Gallus the Griffon, Smolder the Dragon, Sandbar the Earth Pony, Yona the Yak, Ocellus the Changeling, and Silverstream the Hippogriff - these six creatures were the true heroes who stood against the forces of evil and saved Equestria. Not only that, in a time of crisis they set aside that which divides us and showed the true spirit of Equestrian values in freeing Chancellor Neighsay, despite his animosity toward other creatures at the time. That spirit of coming together despite our differences, of showing kindness and friendship in the face of enmity, that is the foundation that Equestria is built on. The courage and true kinship that brought Private Pansy, Clover the Clever, and Smart Cookie together to beat back the windigoes and that brought Princess Luna back from the brink of darkness and defeated Nightmare Moon is the same kinship that embodies these six creatures, and should embody all of us in Equestria and beyond. I am proud to have them as my students. I am proud to be able to learn from them just as much as they learn from me and my school.”

While a few journalists and opposition candidates decried the use of Princess Twilight’s students as “political pawns” in the press, the princess’s Friendship Address was generally very well received.

As election day neared, the polls varied significantly, putting the outcome in a state of uncertainty. The final poll from Gallop, released two days before the election, showed the Triple Crown Party leading at 38.2%, the Coronist Party second at 34.7%, and the Party to Uphold Hippocracy at 13.3%. In past elections, Gallop had usually been the closest polling firm to the result with the other polls generally in agreement with Gallop’s.  However, during this snap election so soon after a major crisis it seemed the opinions of all creatures varied widely, and the other two major polling firms’ predictions differed greatly from Gallop, leading some political analysts to cast some doubt on the esteemed pollster’s predictions. The Mareist poll was much more favorable to the Coronists, with a shock poll a day before the election showing the Coronists at 40.1% and the Tricrowners falling far behind at 35.8%. Mariest also had the Party To Uphold Hippocracy at just 10.8%, and the Everfree Party at a surprisingly strong 6.6%. With that result, the models showed the Everfree Party winning a number of ridings and potentially becoming the deciding coalition party in the parliament. The Equinnipiac University poll, meanwhile, predicted an even larger defection from the Coronists to the Party To Uphold Hippocracy than the other two polls appeared to show. Equinnipiac’s final poll saw the Tricrowners only gaining 36.5% of the vote, but had the Coronists falling to just 27.5% and the Hippocrats climbing all the way to 19.2%.

The Election Results

[Ed. Note: The electoral analysis is largely made possible by Pine Needle, Forecast, and the other fine ponies over at Horse Race Analysis. Thanks Pine Needle! - Nara]

As the dust cleared from election day, the pollsters at Gallop proved their reliability as they came closest to the election results where the two major parties were concerned. In the vote count for the 135 general ridings, the Triple Crown Party receive 37.5% of the vote while the Coronists received 33.1%. However, in a curious development for data jockeys, the Mareist poll came the closest for the largest of the minor parties. The Hippocrats, while they did gain ground from the previous election, only came in at 11.5% of the vote, and the Everfree Party indeed saw a surge in popularity rising to an even 7 percent of the general vote.

Before we get barrel-deep into the analysis of the seats that changed hooves for the Tricrowners and the Coronists, the Hippocrats and the Everfree do deserve a quick mention. It seems that while the Party to Uphold Hippocracy did see a large gain in the polls, their vote share is rather evenly distributed across Equestria, and they were greatly hurt by Equestria’s first past the post voting system. For all their surge in popularity with their harsh rhetoric during the Cozy Glow Crisis, the Hippocrats have but two general seats in parliament to show for it (it should be noted that they also won two unicorn reserved ridings). The Everfreers have a much more concentrated base and along with their five earth pony reserved seats, they were able to capitalize on their rise in the general vote and go from three to five in the general ridings as well. Cases such as these are a perfect demonstration of why the concentration of a party’s votes are very important in the Equestrian first past the post electoral system. Other reforms to the system have been discussed off and on, such as the steeplechase system where candidates without majorities are eliminated one by one and their votes transferred to the voter’s next choice of candidate until somepony gets a majority, or the Saint-Leger system used in local elections in Donkaster where each party nominates a list of candidates and the winners are distributed proportionally, but none has gained much traction so far nationally, partly due to the dominance of the Triple Crown Party quashing nearly any discussion of broader electoral reform.

To begin the analysis of the post-Cozy Glow election, it is best to look at the results in Canterlot. As Equestria’s capital and the location of the modern court of the Two Sisters, Canterlot has long been a bastion of the governmental party with opposition parties historically making little inroads in the city’s ridings. In recent elections, however, the Coronists made unprecedented gains in several Canterlot ridings in large part owing to the large political base the Coronist Party has built among Equestria’s unicorn population. Many government spokesponies expressed worries during the campaign that the capital’s control by the Tricrowners would continue to slip. With the growth of the Coronists and other parties elsewhere in Equestria, the hold on Canterlot is becoming increasingly vital to the Triple Crown majority.

While things had been looking bad for the Triple Crown Party in Canterlot, it appears that Princess Twilight’s last minute “Friendship Address” did have a boosting effect for Fancy Pants’ government going into election day. It did not prevent the Tricrowners from incurring losses in Canterlot. In the Farriergut Square riding, a working class riding in central Canterlot, the shift toward the Coronists was especially pronounced. Two elections prior in a rare instance for Canterlot, an earth pony was elected as an MP. After narrowly winning the Tricrowner nomination, Manger Hay, served for ten years as member of parliament for Farriergut Square and was once again seeking reelection. Going into the snap election, the Canterlot Chronicle exit poll in the marginal riding was optimistic for the Tricrowners with a slim lead, but in the final count Hay underperformed significantly against her main opponent, Coronist unicorn Full Speed. The Coronists made a strong play for the unicorn workers of Farriergut Square, leaving Full Speed ahead at the end of the vote count. The Triple Crown Party lost a total of four of Canterlot’s thirteen general ridings, including Farriergut Square and Neighpean-Rockhoof Park. However, they gained two seats from the Coronists, including one of the biggest shocks in the election. Man O’War was now standing in his Fort Trotten riding for the first time as a Coronist in a general election after defecting from the Tricrowners and winning the by-election. Man O’War, a formidable candidate even as an opposition figure, had been favored to hold the seat in a continuing damper on the Triple Crown Party. In a shocking result, Man O’War was defeated for reelection by Upset, restoring the seat to the Triple Crown Party. Man O’War’s defection ultimately did not sit well with the voters of Fort Trotten in a higher turnout election, and a strong Party to Uphold Hippocracy candidate in Golden Broom leeched some of the traditional Coronist support in the riding. Upset’s victory and another Triple Crown gain in another east Canterlot riding, Bucksley, kept the Triple Crown Party with a comfortable hold on Canterlot with eight ridings, while the Coronists came away with four and the Everfree Party held Twhickerham as their lone Canterlot seat.

Outside of Canterlot, it was a much more worrying story for the Triple Crown Party. In the rural areas of the Equestrian heartland the Coronists found fertile ground for expanding their electorate in the wake of the Cozy Glow Crisis. Winter Wheat, the Tricrowner MP from Whinnyapolis who had written the widely circulated opinion piece attacking the Corona Party’s reversal of position on Chancellor Neighsay ultimately lost her seat to the Coronists. Her neighboring parliamentarian Rainy River also lost her seat to Iron Range in the Thunder Lake riding in what was thought to be a comfortable seat for the Tricrowners on the border with the Crystal Empire. The losses for the Triple Crown Party were felt the most in the seats along the Unicorn Range however, where they lost both general ridings and unicorn reserved ridings. In the riding of Bridleveil-Dapple Creek Coronist Gangue unseated Telluria, and in Bitterroot riding, Hippocrat candidate Ruby Ridge unseated Sharpheart. Both seats were poorer, more rural, and most notably, both ridings had largely unicorn populations with the economy in both centered around mining. The losses were almost certainly caused by the loss of magic and the shock it caused to the local economy and to the local ponies’ trust in the government in Canterlot. Ultimately, it cost the Triple Crown Party two general and two unicorn seats in that region of Equestria, and with Ruby Ridge’s win in Bitterroot, gave the Party to Uphold Hippocracy a rare and important victory.

A further key victory for the Coronists came to the southwest in Salt Lick City as Tricrowner MP Delicate Arch was defeated by Pegasus MP Arctic Circle after she won a long shot campaign for the Coronist nomination. Arctic Circle was in her sixth year serving in the Pegasus riding of San Palomino-Neighvada for the Vernal Party, but it seems her ambitions took her to make the jump from pegasus politics to broader pony politics, a rare occurrence for southwestern Equestria outside of Las Pegasus. Arctic Circle transitioned from a pegasus campaign to a general riding campaign quite well. While she was a Coronist nominee, Arctic Circle eschewed the fight over national security to focus on more local issues, especially surrounding the weather. Arctic Circle claimed Delicate Arch had done little for the weather in the often drought-stricken region around Salt Lick City compared to her own parliamentary record in weather appropriations bills and was able to outflank Everfree candidate Salt Flat on the traditional Everfree plank of more localized cloudsourcing. She still paid lip service to the larger Coronist issues raging closer to Canterlot - coming from the Vernal Party rather than the Hibernal or Estival parties this came more easily than for most pegasi - and was able to draw from both traditionally Everfree and Tricrowner voters to defeat Delicate Arch in the riding.

The Triple Crown Party did have a few bright spots, however, particularly on Equestria’s eastern coast. In Manehattan the Tricrowners won narrow defensive races in Bucklyn and Flushing-Corona, and even gained the Stable Island riding, usually one the safest part of the Manehattan urban ridings for the Coronists. With the Tricrowner losses elsewhere, Stable Island wound up as one of two key victories for the Tricrowners on the east coast. The other was in Cinque Teague riding. The string of five smaller coastal towns south of Baltimare that form the riding had swung to the Coronists in the previous election, but it flipped back after a hard fought campaign from Tricrowner earth pony candidate Phantom Mist. The frequent campaign stop featuring not just Phantom Mist but also popular longtime Baltimare MP Old Bay, whose safe riding permitted her to aid candidates elsewhere during the election campaign, no doubt helped the Tricrowners win back the riding this time.

Further north, the Tricrowners also held onto a crucial marginal riding in the area between Manehattan and Neighagra Falls and in the Griffish Isles. While the government lost Canteraugus to the Coronists, they were able to hold on to Ponyonta riding despite the retirement of longtime MP Flash Stakes. Many election watchers believed that without Flash and with a newcomer to the political field Ponyonta would flip to the Coronists with the Cozy Glow Crisis on everypony’s minds. However, Tricrowner candidate Fillybrand, a local rancher with family connections in both the Ponyonta region and in Manehattan, managed to narrowly hold on to the seat. Even in the Griffish Isles in Equestria’s furthest northeastern reaches, the seats were unpredictable as all three Griffish ridings are marginal between not just the Coronists and Triple Crown Party but the Everfree Party as well. Additionally, with the large donkey and griffon populations on the Isles, minor local parties can often take significant sections of the vote. However, it seems the Griffish Isles wanted a safer set of hooves after the Cozy Glow Crisis. The Triple Crown Party not only held on in Donkaster and Orkneigh-Shetland but increased their margins as well, even with Orkneigh-Shetland still seeing a substantial break for the Everfree Party in what had been one of their first breakthrough ridings as a party. Even in Trottingham, where the Coronists have found a hoofhold in the border region, the Tricrowners managed to capture the riding back. The increased ties between Equestria and Griffonstone and the more local ties in the border region, combined with the more recent aid from nearby griffon towns during and after the loss of magic hurt the Coronists across the Griffish Isles and boosted the Tricrowners to give them the full slate of ridings in the region.

While the Coronists picked up most of the gains from the voter disillusionment with the Triple Crown Party, in some parts of Equestria the Cozy Glow Crisis and the brief loss of magic fomented a complete disdain for the entire political establishment. This is most clearly seen in northwest Equestria where in two ridings, the free rein Discordian Party made significant gains.  The Discordians saw their strongest surge in the riding of Pugallop-Seaddle-Vanhoover Island where their candidate, local earth pony farmer Twisted Hemp, ran a strong second place. While Twisted Hemp did not win - that goes to MP-Elect Salt Spring as an Everfree gain - the anti-establishment feeling pushed the Triple Crown Party and the Coronists down to a shocking third and fourth in the riding! Neither party coming in the top two in a general riding is practically unheard of in recent Equestrian politics. The Discordians’ greatest gain percentage-wise was in Pugallop, but they pulled off an even greater achievement by actually winning a seat in parliament in the neighboring Equinemalt-Naneighmo riding. The Discordians snagged a coup in the riding after convincing Frank Neigh to run for parliament on their party line. Neigh gained local celebrity status after single-hoofedly pushing a Cadborosaurus that had wandered ashore and was threatening a local coastal village during the magic loss.

As Northwestern Equestria saw the most notable rise overall for minor parties, then it would be expected that concentrated bases of support elsewhere in Equestria would also see increased support. This is indeed borne out by the electoral analysis as pockets of anti-establishment or outright republican ideologies also gained support in the election as a backlash against the traditional party system. The village of New Harmony in Hoovesierland has long been the center of Equalist ideology, but has not seen any political success beyond local offices due to the inevitable splitting of the Equalists on strict denominational lines. That has now changed with an Equalist candidate winning the New Harmony-Hoovesier riding for the first time. While New Harmony-Hooversier will now have an Equalist Party (Marksist-Glimmerist) member of parliament, not all Equalists in the riding will be happy about it. The splintering of the Equalists is still very much present in the riding. Both Trot Sky of the Equalist Party (Trotskyite) and Carta Blanca of the Blankist Equality Party still pulled a substantial number of votes in the riding, but the Equalists (M-G), the first and most widespread Equalist party, successfully pulled enough unified support in New Harmony to top the Tricrowner support in the rest of Hoovesierland to win the overall riding. Carta Blanca and the Blankists are a curious note here, as while they lost, they actually saw the largest vote gain on the last election. Unlike the other Equalist parties, the Blankists advocate eliminating cutie marks altogether rather than giving every pony the same cutie mark. That may have helped the Blankists gain appeal among a growing non-pony population in Hooversierland, seeing as creatures such as griffons lack cutie marks of their own and may be turned off by the more cutie mark-centric parties and mainstream Equalist thought.

The Nightmare Party also gained a seat, bringing them to three seats in parliament. The party gained some notoriety among Canterlot circles in recent years for picking verbal fights with Princess Luna and being perhaps the most vocal outright republican party in their calls for the abolition of the diarchy and the establishment of a “New Lunar Republic” with Nightmare Moon at its head. While the Nightmare Party’s allegations of Princess Luna being a version of Nightmare Moon that has been corrupted by Celestia are patently false, they have nonetheless gained hoofholds in two small areas of Equestria. Prior to the election, the Nightmare Party was represented in parliament by Nachtmusik in the Hollow Shades riding and Solar Nadir in Whinnypeg-University. With this election though, the Nightmare Party has increased its support in Flim Flam, gaining a second riding in the far northern Whinnypeg region, likely owing to the long winter nights on Equestria’s border with the Crystal Empire. Nachtmusik and Solar Nadir will be joined in parliament by Flim Flam MP-elect Sanctuary Sky.

In southeastern Equestria, the turn of many voters against the establishment had an odd, opposite effect in boosting rather than diminishing the Triple Crown and Coronist Party vote and flipping a seat to the Tricrowners. That seat would be the riding of Lipizziana in the Hayseed Swamps region. For the past few decades, Lipizziana had been ruled by the political machine built by the pony who sat as its general member of parliament, Kingfish. Kingfish was one of the few independents serving in Canterlot, and over the decades he gained enough popularity and subordinates back in Lipizziana to withstand many attempts by the Tricrowners and Coronists to unseat him and the fellow members of his local political organization. However strong Kingfish’s political organization may have been in Lipizziana, it seems the Cozy Glow Crisis even reached this remote corner of Equestria that previously seemed untouchable by the major parties. Kingfish’s vote share fell by nearly 15 percentage points in the riding during the snap election, which was enough. About a third of the vote Kingfish lost went to Coronist candidate Rage Cavalle nearly pushing them to 20% in the riding, but the real beneficiaries were the Tricrowners. Andalou saw an increase of nearly 10 points in the riding, pushing her to 41% for the Tricrowners topping Kingfish’s 37%. The loss of magic finally broke the back of the Kingfish political machine and made Lipizziana’s voters turn toward what to them was an outsider party and a voice for change, even though for most creatures in Equestria it is the voice of the parliamentary government.

The defeat of Kingfish was a welcome surprise for the Tricrowners, adding another gain to make up for the seats lost to the Coronists and others across Equestria. After all the votes came in, Fancy Pants’ regency and the Triple Crown majority government held on, but only barely. For the first time in the history of the Equestrian parliament, the Triple Crown Party dipped below the majority thresthold in the general ridings with just 95 of the 135 general seats in parliament. Luckily for the Tricrowners, they were still able to prop up a majority government thanks to the unicorn and non-pony reserved ridings, which pushed the Tricrowners to 111 of the 200 total seats in the Horseshoe. Fancy Pants would still have his government, but pushing the government below 100 general seats was a major victory for the Coronists, capping off their continuing rise. Parabellum, the Coronist Party’s leader, gave what could only be interpreted as a victory speech the day following the election. “With the six seats we have gained, the Coronist Party now wields more influence in Equestrian politics than ever before, and we will use it to right the ship of state after the mess the Tricrowners have made of Equestrian policy over the last several years.”

Additionally, the new Triple Crown government will likely want to shore up its support by approaching some of the more friendly minor parties to be included in government. The Tricrowners can usually find at least one ally in the pegasus and earth pony reserved ridings, owing to the separate political systems, but that always comes with strings attached in the coalition negotiation process. In the pegasi ridings, the Estival Party is the most natural fit. The Estival Party is the most supportive of the diarchy’s friendlier foreign policy and greater acceptance of non-ponies, and with 10 of the 20 pegasi ridings they would lend the government strong support in the Horseshoe. On the other hoof, the Hibernal Party did gain two seats in this snap election and now hold 7 ridings, and with the delay in cloud production caused by the Cozy Glow Crisis their calls for greater cloud production and precipitation are likely to resonate more in parliament and especially among Equestria’s farmers. Add in the very strong independent streak among all areas of pegasi politics and any arrangement between the Tricrowners and any of the three pegasus parties will likely come with many Tricrowner concessions and could be easily rescinded.

With earth pony politics, there is always the Everfree Party, which has the benefit of their crossover into general ridings and which have been supportive of some of the more recent policies put forth by the Triple Crown Party. The Everfreers also gained ridings in both earth pony ridings and general ridings in the election, and now tie the Estival Party for the third largest party in parliament at 10 seats each. However, with the Everfree Party continuing to call for devolution of weather management to regional or local authorities as part of giving earth ponies a greater say in the weather, and their recent clamoring for voting reform, the Everfreers could be at odds with any of the pegasus parties over one thing or another and during the recovery from the Cozy Glow Crisis an alliance with the Everfreers and a pegasus party would be quite fragile. The Country Party’s eight seats could be a useful way to reach out to some of the rural ridings which swung toward the Coronists in the general seats, but with some in the Triple Crown Party still calling for Neighsay’s resignation as EEA chancellor, that could embolden some of the more isolationist and hippocratic elements within the Triple Crown Party to try and increase their influence. It could also be seen as a small cession of the debate over non-pony representation to Parabellum and the Coronists if Fancy Pants were to bring the more Coronist-aligned Country Party into the government.

However, for now all the talk of partnerships with minor parties is still somewhat irrelevant. The Triple Crown Party has its overall majority in parliament and Fancy Pants has won a firm continuation as Cheval Regent, despite the setbacks and losses for the Tricrowners. For now, what the government needs most is peace and stability as Equestria recovers from the Cozy Glow Crisis. With a relative calm and no major threats or shifts in power, the Triple Crown Party should be able to right itself and restore the confidence in what has long been the natural governing party in Equestria to regain its usual sizable majority in the next scheduled election.

Seat Count and Changes
General Ridings
Triple Crown Party - 95 (-10)
Coronists - 26 (+5)
Everfree Party - 5 (+2)
Nightmare Party - 3 (+1)
Party to Uphold Hippocracy - 2 (+1)
Independents - 2 (-1)
Discordian Party - 1 (+1)
Equality Party (Marksist-Glimmerist) - 1 (+1)

Pegasus Ridings
Estival Party - 10 (-2)
Hibernal Party - 7 (+2)
Vernal Party - 3

Unicorn Ridings
Triple Crown Party - 12 (-2)
Coronist Party - 6 (+1)
Party to Uphold Hippocracy - 2 (+1)

Earth Pony Ridings
Country Party - 8
Everfree Party - 5 (+2)
Municipal Development Party - 4 (-1)
Free Soil Party - 3 (-1)

Non-Pony Ridings
Triple Crown Party - 4
Black Angus Party - 1

Total Seat Count
Triple Crown Party - 111 (-12)
Coronist Party - 32 (+6)
Everfree Party - 10 (+2)
Estival Party - 10 (-2)
Country Party - 8 (+1)
Hibernal Party - 7 (+2)
Party to Uphold Hippocracy - 4 (+2)
Municipal Development Party - 4
Free Soil Party - 3 (-1)
Nightmare Party - 3 (+1)
Vernal Party - 3
Independents - 2 (-1)
Discordian Party - 1 (+1)
Equality Party - 1 (+1)
Black Angus Party - 1