“Once upon a time in the magical land of Equestria, there were two regal sisters who ruled together and created harmony for all the land. To do this, the eldest used her unicorn powers to raise the sun at dawn while the younger brought out the moon to begin the night. Thus, the two sisters maintained balance for their kingdom and their subjects, all three types of ponies.
But as time went on, the younger sister became resentful. The ponies relished and played in the day her elder sister brought forth, but shunned and slept through her beautiful night. One fateful day, the younger alicorn refused to lower the moon to make way for the dawn. The elder sister tried to reason with her, but the bitterness in the young one’s heart had transformed her into a wicked mare of darkness- Nightmare Moon. She vowed that she would shroud the land in eternal night.
Reluctantly, the elder sister harnessed the most powerful magic known to ponykind- The Elements of Harmony. Using the magic of the Elements of Harmony, she defeated her younger sister, and banished her permanently in the moon. The elder sister took on responsibility for both sun and moon, and harmony has been maintained in Equestria for generations since.”
(♫)
“Curious text, isn’t it?” In Twilight Sparkle’s telekinetic grip, her favorite lecturer’s pointer tapped each gorgeously-illustrated page of the historical document she’d had photoalchemically enlarged to occupy the easel on her right. “In tone it’s superficially similar to late Solarist polemics- for instance in its description of Celestia ‘taking on responsibility’ and the repeated motif of ‘harmony’ as a political or social concept instead of simply metaphysical. However, we also see the inclusion of a great deal of background information that any pony in Equestria would already consider common knowledge.”
The purple unicorn took a half-step forward, tensing unconsciously in excitement. “That’s why I’d posit that the Fragment is in fact at least partially Griffonic in origin. The parchment is composed of yellow Ujumqin calfskin, which until the Fourth Century was rare in Equestria but common in the Griffon Empire, and the two-illustrations-to-a-page layout was used commonly in the historical primers provided to the children of Griffon nobles! Note the attribution of a comprehensible motive to the rebel Princess Luna, something a Solar polemicist of the First or Second Centuries would never have done; a description of the Moon having been held in place, which was dismissed as exaggeration as early as the one-seventies and only confirmed with the advent of modern analytic thaumotracing in the nine-eighties; and the complete absence of any of the formal moralistic closings.”
“If that’s the case…” with practiced ease, the pointer executed a quick sweep for added emphasis, “we could be looking at the one of the only surviving accounts of the Lunar Rebellions not to have been subjected to factional censorship, possibly even based off of one of the otherwise lost Equestrian texts collected, translated, and annotated by Gurdur Black-Talon herself!” While Equestria’s official record system had been well-established by the First Century of the Circadian Era, the secrecy and corruption and factional infighting that increasingly surrounded the ruling Council of Five Hundred had seen it degrade significantly as the century approached its end. Once Luna’s rebellion began in earnest and even the time of day became subject to a battle of wills between two recalcitrant Princesses, the public annals had disintegrated completely into a series of contradictory polemics. Anything dating before about the mid Second Century was now generally recognized to be unreliable at best and pure propagandistic garbage at worst.
Suddenly aware that she was advancing out of range of her easel, Twilight backtracked and sidled over to the right. “It’s a simplified, secondhand account to be sure, but if it is derived from material held by the Black Talon Society- which, at the time, took immense pride in rigorous, factual impartiality compared to the revisionist historians of a divided Equestria, and had been established when the events of the Lunar Rebellions remained in living memory- then we can conclude with some certainty that the facts depicted in it had been verified by authoritative sources!”
She fought back a smirk borne from long-overdue vindication. It wouldn’t do to appear unprofessional before the Day Court. “It’s not lost on me that those facts include a description of the Elements of Harmony as real, physical objects. Unfortunately, it doesn’t say anything about where they might have ended up, and personally I won’t believe any of it until I’m holding the things in my hooves.” Now she permitted herself a bit more of a smile. Serious scholars were more or less evenly divided on whether the fabled artifacts had ever truly existed; The Elements of Harmony: A Reference and the few other sources that discussed them at length were heavy on philosophy, metaphor, and allegory to the exclusion of concrete details or for that matter comprehensible sentence structure. Twilight Sparkle considered herself agnostic on that particular question.
“But that’s at best, a secondary concern. Much more importantly to the issue at hand, this fragment unambiguously identifies the rebel Princess Luna as both Nightmare Moon and the cause of the Mare-in-the-Moon Phenomenon!”
The pointer was left to float idle for a moment as Twilight flipped her canvas back onto the not-inconsiderable stack behind her, revealing the next in sequence; another enlargement of an ancient text, this one depicting a stylized Mare-in-the-Moon above a block of cramped, heavily stylized Early Modern Ponish.
“This brings us to the year 642 and Mist Watcher’s Predictions and Prophecies, a popular-magic encyclopedia which contains an entry on the Mare in the Moon eerily consistent with what’s described in the Luna Bay fragment- and completely contrary to the prevailing wizardly consensus of the time that the image was simply a projection created by Princess Luna to rally her forces, which Celestia was then unable to remove following her sister’s presumed death.”
Twilight knew that taking a stand against the so-called ‘execution theory’ would go over well with the Day Court. The Princess of the Sun had always maintained that Luna was alive and somehow imprisoned within the immaterial firmament, but that didn’t stop various Canterlot talking-heads and conspiracy theorists from occasionally suggesting otherwise. Even Celestia herself was short an explanation as to exactly where her sister had ended up or how she had gotten there, and every attempt to return Luna to the physical world to stand trial for her insurrection had ended in failure- sometimes disastrously. It was a sore spot for her patron, and that in turn was one of the main reasons why Twilight had started this line of research to begin with.
“The Mare In The Moon: Myth from olden pony times.” Twilight read, “A powerful pony that wanted to rule Equestria, defeated by the Elements of Harmony and imprisoned in the Moon. Legend has it that on the longest day of the thousandth year, the stars will aid in her escape and she will bring about nighttime eternal.”
“Obviously this is at best a secondary source, and a woefully incomplete one at that, but the parallels with the Luna Bay Fragment- many of the same assertions for which this text was originally derided- are certainly curious. Additionally, the implication of a prophecy predicting Nightmare Moon’s eventual return is extremely concerning.”
Another slide was revealed, this one containing a brief overview of the star charts and astrological calculations with which Twilight had opened her presentation. Even in summarized form and barely-readable font the canvas was left with more ink on it than white space. “In particular, if ‘the stars’ really will aid in her return, then a number of these puzzling stellar convergences within the outer etheric shell could in fact be reinterpreted as a deliberate attempt to create a sort of giant astrological summoning circle capable of manifesting a pony-sized object on the surface of the Material Plane!”
Another slide of equations and charts even denser than the first was revealed. “Over the past year I’ve been able to develop an analytic model of this spell class which could provide us more concrete, actionable information with which to counter any such incursions from the Lunar Sphere…” indeed, that had been what Princess Celestia had first commissioned Twilight to create; everything beyond that had been the unicorn’s own investigation after she’d become alarmed by what the model had predicted, “… but without additional parameters there’s a lot we just don’t know about how it might work!” Her pointer tapped a series of bright-yellow patches highlighting unknown variables, which collectively made up about half the page- everything from verbal and kinetic spell components to the final positions of astrologically-important stars. “If we had access to a precise arrival time we’d at least be able to determine a location and provide a lower bound on the mana drain, but without purpose-built telescopes it’s not possible to track the stellar motion precisely enough- we only know the stars are moving at all because we can compare against almanacs that are centuries old; over my lifetime they might as well have been standing still.”
The astrological calculations were banished as well, revealing beneath them a rough timeline of Equestrian history starting a century behind Lunar Rebellions in 98 CE and ending a century beyond the current year of 1097. Multiple thousand-year spans were highlighted with differently-colored ribbon; a disturbing number of their endpoints were clustered around the early 1100s. “The prophecy Mist Watcher refers to could resolve this question immediately, but the portion he seems to have quoted directly is cut off before it can mention what, exactly, ‘the thousandth year’ refers to. It can’t be the thousandth year of the standard calendar; if that was the case Nightmare Moon would’ve already come and gone and none of us would be having this conversation,” Twilight recovered her pointer and traced it along one ribbon in particular, the one that terminated a year from the current date at the thousandth Summer Sun Celebration, “but that still leaves an alarming number of potential entry points, many of them quite nearby.”
Twilight revealed the penultimate slide in her presentation, a collection of similar, well-established prophecies declared and later fulfilled over the course of Equestrian history. Certain common sections and formalisms were highlighted, others annotated in Twilight’s small, blocky script. Very few of them described foregone conclusions, as the Predictions and Prophecies segment seemed to. “We also don’t know under what conditions, precisely, Nightmare Moon can return, or if there’s another clause describing how to prevent that return. To do that, we’d need to find a more intact copy of the original prophecy!”
“So you see, my dearest teacher, honored ministers, that we may very well be standing on the very precipice of disaster! The mythical Mare-in-the-Moon is in fact Nightmare Moon, and she’s about to return to Equestria and bring with her eternal night! We don’t have the background information necessary to bring to bear our most powerful mathematical weapons against her, and the closest thing we have to a surefire solution is the possibility of the Elements of Harmony! Nonetheless, something must be done to make sure this terrible prophecy does not come true!”
The prophecy slide too was cast aside in her telekinetic field, exposing a small block diagram liberally annotated with military and academic insignia as well as a few individual cutie marks in the higher levels. Twilight’s mark had originally occupied the box at the very top, but at the last minute she’d decided that ran the risk of appearing presumptuous and erased it. It wasn’t as though there were any other qualified candidates. “A theoretical development division will attempt to improve our existing spell models, as well as developing improved telescopes to detect and analyze currently imperceptible levels of stellar motion, and also generate testable hypotheses regarding the physical nature of Nightmare Moon- particularly vulnerabilities which magic or tactics could be developed to exploit. A research division will analyze and cross-reference material already existing in Equestrian archives to identify potential other sources of actionable intelligence on both Nightmare Moon and the Elements of Harmony. Existing military forces will also need to be placed on high alert for any sort of extraplanar incursion, and both Royal Justice Agency and the Provincial and City Watches will need to prepare for the possibility of a revival of the old Lunar cult.”
“However, our top priority must be to determine the specifics of the prophecy Mist Watcher references, if it even exists. To that end, we will need to make comprehensive searches not just of well-known Lunar sites in the Everfree Forest, but also potentially armed incursions into Griffonia, Minos, or the Abyssinian holdings in Saddle Arabia. It will be difficult, and it will be dangerous, and I can’t promise that we’ll find anything worthwhile as a result. But compared to the alternative, I believe it to be the safest course of action. Thank you.”
(♫)
Twilight finally released her pointer, slightly out of breath, and stepped over to the small purple dragon who was her only audience in the private laboratory she’d set up atop the observatory tower of the Royal Academy of Magic. “Well? What’d you think?”
“Well, I thought it was both persuasive and comprehensive, if a little heavy on the astrology.” Spike brushed past her- not too difficult a feat given that even on two legs he barely reached the unicorn’s muzzle- and set about the complicated task of disassembling the foldable easel. “But then, I’ve been working with you on this from the beginning so maybe I’m a little biased.”
Twilight spent a few more seconds following the flight of a Royal Navy air cruiser as it made its final descent towards the docks located at the edge of the city. Behind them lay an elegant series of scalloped terraces that provided the bulk of Canterlot’s commercial and residential zoning, and closer still were the intermingled spires of the Royal Academy of Magic, the Halls of the Day Court, the School for Gifted Foals, and the Guard officers’ academy at Hurricane’s Green which collectively made up the entire district somewhat misleadingly referred to as Canterlot Castle.
“I appreciate the help, Spike, I really do. I just hope Celestia sees it the same way.”
“For what it’s worth, I still think you should just take this to the papers. Once she realizes how serious the danger actually is, Celestia’ll understand why you did it.”
“Oh, please.” She rejoined her assistant and set about recollecting her discarded canvasses in the proper order of her presentation. She’d tried to lay them all upside-down in the order they had been removed from the easel, but some of them had managed to end up rotated or off the pile entirely despite her best efforts. Nerves, probably. “Of the twenty percent who don’t fall into a coma as soon as I show them a first derivative, ten are going to write an editorial criticizing Celestia for funding a ‘cuh-razy conspiracy theorist’ with their tax money, five are going to claim Nightmare Moon is returning because Equestria went off the gold standard, and the one who actually believes me isn’t going to do anything about it because nopony reads her boring column about boring scientific discoveries!”
“That doesn’t sum to a hundred percent.”
“Well if they had any aptitude for math they wouldn’t be working as opinion writers.” The unicorn shook her head, finally managed to get her slides organized, and set about carefully rolling them into a more compact tube.
“What about Princess Cadance, then?”
“I don’t know, I… really haven’t talked to her in ages, I don’t want to show up out of the blue just to beg her for what, if we’re being honest, is just a political favor.” She stuffed the canvas roll into her plain, light-blue messenger’s saddlebags with a bit more force than was entirely necessary.
Spike slipped the now-compacted easel into the opposite saddlebag and stole a look at the grandfather clock Twilight had painstakingly synchronized to Canterlot Mean Time. “You’d… better get going, or else you’re gonna miss your own audience.”
“… oh, horseapples!”
Lemon Hearts, Minuette, and Twinkleshine made their way down the marble hallway in companionable silence, still mulling over that morning’s seminar on a novel hyperplane model for classifying spell-like formal grammars. Then at roughly the same time the three of them caught sight of a familiar purple figure heading their way with a saddlebag full of equipment.
“There you are, Twilight! Moondancer is having a little get-together in the West Castle Courtyard-” Lemon Hearts began, a bag of twenty-sided dice jiggling suggestively in her telekinetic grip.
“SORRYWORKHOW'BOUTTHISWEEKEND?” Twilight interrupted as she barreled past them and continued on towards the skybridge leading to the Day Court towers.
Minuette shook her head. “Does that pony ever do anything but work?”
“I think she’s more interested in books than her friends.”
Twilight made very good time and arrived at the throne room six minutes ahead of schedule.
That left her stuck in the vestibule for the better part of an hour as the briefing in progress overran its time slot and completely consumed first her own audience, then the one after it. Unlike the Longshoremares’ Guild representative who gave up and departed in a huff at the forty-five-minute mark, Twilight was at least lucky that the atrium guards knew her by name and were willing to ignore her constant pacing, frequent adjustments of her saddlebags, and occasional murmured invective. Finally, just as Twilight began to worry she was succumbing to exhaustion -Harmony, who thought it was a good idea to build a foyer without a single bench?- the gold double doors swung open.
A head taller than any of her court, Celestia was easy enough to spot, and Twilight’s short stature and scrawny frame proved for once to be an asset as she dodged through the loose agglomeration of ministers, representatives, and various hangers-on to her patron’s side.
“Twilight!” the Princess glided to a gentle stop and turned to face her, “I’m so sorry we kept you waiting, I’m afraid the budget process is taking longer than anypony anticipated.” She turned away briefly towards the retreating figure of the new Vice-Chancellor for Education and, while on an individual level the faint smile she always wore, the tilt of her elegant head, and the shape of her lavender eyes scarcely shifted, the sum total of those elements nonetheless somehow conspired to form an expression which could have stopped a charging Ursa. Then she laughed. “I hope what you had to tell me wasn’t… too urgent?”
“Uhm… actually…” the unicorn paused, shifting nervously on her hooves, then continued all at once, “I’d like it if you could authorize Commander Shining Armor to be read in on my studies of the Luna Bay fragment. I think I’ve discovered significant reason to believe that Nightmare Moon’s return is a real possibility, and the entity may be arriving in Equestria as early as next year! We need to mobilize a search of the Everfree Forest and other nearby Lunar sites immediately!”
“Really?” Having interacted directly with Celestia since she was nine years old, Twilight considered herself somewhat more capable than the common pony of reading the Princess’s often-multilayered emotions. She had expected some measure of surprise from the alicorn, but was disappointed. “And what about the study I commissioned on thaumic resonance in glowpaz?”
Celestia had been sending her a lot of pointless little projects like that lately- just barely not difficult enough that Twilight could claim she was being overworked, and just barely not urgent enough that she couldn’t justify calling in other researchers to help her. It was an odd reversal- early on, the Princess had practically been breathing down the back of Twilight’s neck, pushing her to focus on her astrological models to the exclusion of all else. If she didn’t know better Twilight would suspect the Princess was trying to pressure her into dropping the entire Lunar project, but if that was the case Celestia had grossly overestimated her student’s need for such trivial mortal distractions as food and sleep.
“I had the report couriered to your desk a few hours ago.” Without the ministers impeding their progress Celestia turned down a narrower side hallway and Twilight followed a half-step behind, idly searching over several dozen tapestries that each commemorated a successive Baron Superintendent of the Cloudsdale Weather Factory. She had lived in Canterlot Castle for her entire adult life, and the place never seemed to run out of surprises for her. “I’ve been working on the Nightmare Moon issue on my own time,” she continued, “weekends and late in the evenings, mostly.”
“And you’re aware of the length of the waiting list for non-emergency meetings with the Commander?”
“There’s no need! I’m going to talk to him when we’re both home for the Summer Sun Celebration.”
Celestia stopped walking and regarded one of the tapestries in particular. “I see.”
“You… see?”
The princess knelt down to Twilight’s level and looked her in the eye, heedless of the dust that had accumulated on the flagstones now clinging to her pearlescent coat. “My faithful student, you know it’s wrong for you to exploit your family connections for professional gain.”
“Well it isn’t like I’m pressuring him to do anything. When I mention what I’m working on, he could always just say ‘Not now, Twily, we’re on holiday’, and-”
“Twilight?”
“Hmm?”
“Who is this pony you’ve been writing to, and what has he done with Commander Shining Armor?”
Twilight had to smile at that, but a moment later Celestia’s tone became grave. “Have you been following the papers from Appleoosa? The common pony already sees Canterlot as corrupt and closed off to her concerns. We don’t want to further inflame the situation by sending soldiers to search a completely unassuming village based on the pet theory of the Guard Commander’s sister.”
“Well by this time next year there might not be an Appleoosa to worry about rebelling!”, Twilight snapped, and then immediately backed away and bowed her head. Over the entire course of her time in Canterlot Castle, and at the Royal School for Gifted Ponies before that, and watching from the audience at public Court proceedings even before that, the young scholar had never once seen Celestia cause the slightest harm or disgrace to ponies who had said the vilest things to her, but that didn’t make her own outburst any more acceptable. “Sorry… I’m so sorry, that was out of line and-”
Dimly, Twilight registered the presence of a golden-shod hoof against her shoulder. “You don’t have to apologize to me for anything, you know that well enough by now. And, I suppose, if this work really is that important to you… I could remind you of a bit of Court business you probably missed locked away up in that observatory.”
“Huh?”
“What if I told you that, in recognition of the contributions of small communities all over Equestria, I would be personally officiating this year’s Summer Sun Celebration not in Canterlot or Manehattan but in… say, the town of Ponyville, which just so happens to border the Everfree Forest? And, of course, a member of the General Staff would need to be sent some time in advance of the ceremony to perform a close inspection of the town and its immediate environs…?”
“I knew you’d want to take immediate action! I’ll get Spike to help me pack my things!” Twilight dematerialized a moment later in a flash of purple energy.