“We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty.”
-Nate Silver
Vinyl opened the door to her apartment and gladly threw herself onto the couch. It was good to be home, it felt warm and right to be finally away from all of things outside. In here Vinyl felt safe, which was a far cry from what she felt in Ponyville or at Twinkle’s house.
“We need to talk.” Twinkle slammed the door behind him and shuffled over to the chair he had claimed as his own. Vinyl didn’t really want to deal with an angry Twinkle, mainly because she didn’t know what to expect from it.
“Are you sure you don’t want to, y’know, amp down first?” Vinyl had been mad enough around Twinkle to pick up a few things about calming a pony down. “You’re still pretty mad about the whole grandma stuff. Can we go get something to eat or something, even take a little walk?” Okay, so she didn’t have it down to an art like Twinkle did.
“I’m fine.” Shining stated flatly, taking off his armor piece by piece until it was in a pile. “We need to talk about what we’re doing next. That’s what I’m focused on now, not anything else. So how about you focus up with me and we figure something out.” Vinyl took a deep breath. She knew that Shining wasn’t in the best mindset right now and she needed to show patience, but that wasn’t easy. Vinyl was not the patient type.
“How about we take a few minutes off of me, huh?” Vinyl was going to redirect this if it killed her. “I just came off of this Sky thing and I’m still processing it, alright. I need to figure out what I’m feeling before we go and plan anything out.” It was half truths, of course. Vinyl had sort of come to terms with the Sky thing after her conversation with Nightlight. It became easier to push the guilt down and focus on the positives, but she was still dealing with it. “And, y’know, we always talk about me and my problems. How about for once I try to help you?” Vinyl sat up while Twinkle gave her a questioning look. “From where I’m sitting, it sure as hell looks like you could use some catharsis right about now.”
Twinkle tapped his hoof against the arm of the chair, biting his lip as he thought it over. Vinyl was hoping that a little venting was appealing to him at the moment. She would take listening to other ponies’ problems instead of espousing her own all of the time. It would be a nice change of pace.
“I’m worried.” Twinkle let it out with a sigh, his complexion turning a little less red than before. For the first time since they got back to Canterlot, the stallion relaxed. It looked like he was so tired and beaten down. It wasn’t the Twinkle she knew at all. “Satin, my Grandmother, she did set this all up.”
“I got that from the whole shouting match earlier.” Vinyl motioned for Twinkle to keep the conversation moving forward. She wanted to get to the meat of the problem and skip all of the fluff she already knew.
“I can’t accept the position.” Shining shook his head, staring off through the window and towards the castle in the distance. “If I do, I’m complicit in the bribery or blackmail of a government official. If I don’t, then I can kiss my career as a guard goodbye because Galea is going to bury me. So either I accept the promotion and give up everything I stand for, or I don’t take it and...and lose the only thing I ever wanted.” Shining turned to face Vinyl, dark bags visible under his eyes. “For the first time, I don’t know what’s the right thing to do.”
“Yeah, that must be difficult.” Vinyl said with no small amount of snark. She caught herself after the fact and winced. “Sorry, I didn’t mean it like that. I’m still a bit emotionally raw myself, so I’m sorry if I come off as, y’know, a bit rough.” Vinyl sighed, she wasn’t built for this kind of thing. “What I meant to say was that I know how that feels, and I guess I can let you in on something that somepony told me about making tough choices. ‘It’s not about living with the pain, but living with the decision to be in pain.’ So I guess it’s about living with yourself after deciding on something.” Vinyl was hoping that the meaning of the words weren’t lost in translation, it was some pretty good advice.
“Right.” Shining took a second to process the words. “I don’t think I could live with either, not in good conscience or faith.” Vinyl could see the conflict across the stallion’s face, it was one she had felt on the inside all too often. “How did you decide on Glory?”
“I-I don’t know.” Vinyl shrugged. “I just got pushed and my brain screamed at me to say something. So I did, I just blurted out what I felt and just...I just went with it. Once I decided, everything just aligned and I was able to think about why it was the right choice.” Call it rationalization or something, but Vinyl hadn’t ever been on the verge of going back. She had regretted it and even thought about taking it back, but she was never even close. “Just...just go with the thing that seems right, go with whatever it is that heart of yours is telling you.” It was corny, sure, but it was still pretty true.
“Alright.” Shining took another deep breath and closed his eyes. “I don’t want to quit, I just can’t. I need to be a guard, I need to be able to help ponies.” That was a pretty definitive answer in Vinyl’s eyes. “I think I can live with some guilt as long as I make something of myself. I just need to rise above the means and make it something better than how I got it.” Shining took his hooves and ran it through his mane. “I just don’t know how I’ll do that.”
“One step at a time, that’s how.” Vinyl got off of her couch, much to her internal dismay, and trotted over to Twinkle. “If it’s any consolation coming from me, I believe in you. I mean, look at what you’ve done with me. I think you’ve really helped me, whether I would usually like to admit it or not.” Vinyl was giving in to her feelings about Twinkle now. She was definitely going to go a bit soft on him, maybe a hug would come soon. “So yeah.” She motioned for the guard to scooch over, which he did and allowed her to squeeze onto the chair with him.
“You think you’re doing better?” Vinyl nodded, electing not to add anything. She didn’t know what else she could add. Her feelings were all laid bare, and they both knew it. “Do you think you’re rehabilitated?” That was the million bit question that Vinyl had been wondering about since day one. How would she know? It’s not like she was a different pony or something, she was still just Vinyl with a few extra heartbreaks.
“What does that even mean?” Vinyl asked. “Rehabilitated from what? Being me?” She thought back to all of the time before Twinkle. She wasn’t ashamed of anything she did, not one bit. She had been a bit rambunctious and maybe more trouble than she was worth, but she had been living her life like everypony else. “That’s who I am, Twinkle. I think you can see I’m not some criminal, or anything. Am I less sad now, sure. You’ve helped me move on from some of that stuff, but was that the plan? Was this just therapy to try and make me happy? It’s not like I wasn’t happy before this or anything, I had plenty to be happy and sad about just like anypony else.” She sighed and turned to the stallion. “So I don’t know if I’ve been successfully rehabbed or not, because I don’t even know what that means.”
Vinyl was going to rant more, but she interrupted by the soft chuckling of the guard beside her. She turned to him to see a stupid pleased grin across his face, like he was a foal who told a sneaky lie.
“To tell you the truth, Scratch. You’ve been technically ‘rehabilitated’ for about a week.” Vinyl raised an eyebrow, unsure of what the stallion meant. “In the rulebook-” Shining turned to her and began gesturing with his hooves. “-the technical definition of rehabilitated is you becoming a productive member of society again, also known as getting a job. I got you working back at your uncle’s so by the rulebook’s standards, you’re already rehabilitated.”
“So…” Vinyl was thoroughly confused. Twinkle was, in no small sense, obsessed with the rules. Everything he did practically reeked of the damn rules, so what had all of this been about? “...if the goal was to just get me a job, then why go through all of this stuff with Sky and Lily and my parents…?” Not to mention Intrepid, but that was mainly Cadance’s doing.
“At first?” Shining shrugged. “I was nosy. I wanted to know more about you, thought it might help.” The smile disappeared, replaced by a gentle softness. “Then I saw how many things were...not right, and I knew I had to help. At first it started with just Glory, but then it just kinda snowballed into your parents and everything.” Shining shrugged. “I lost sight of the whole job thing until I met your uncle, and even then it was a bonus.”
Vinyl was a little touched and a little creeped out. It was pretty true to what Vinyl had learned about the stallion that he went beyond his job just to help her out with personal problems. But also, it was a little strange he had wanted to pry into her personal life. Mostly, the endearing feeling overpowered the little bit of awkwardness she felt. One thing that stood out though was a conversation they had after the concert, and her conclusion making more sense.
“So you did think I was broken.” That’s what Vinyl had heard in the confession. She was just something to help, to fix. His job hadn’t even mattered, what mattered was him feeling good about helping somepony. Vinyl didn’t like to think of it that way, but it’s what it seemed like to her.
“No.” Twinkle leaned over, resting his cheek against the top of her head. “I didn’t think you were broken and I still don’t. I thought I could help you, and I took the chance.” Shining let the sentiment hang in the air for a second. “If you feel like I’ve done something I shouldn’t have, I’m sorry. I was only trying to help.” Ah yes, the only defense for somepony who was guilty of doing something they got into trouble for. Vinyl supposed she could forgive him, after all it had done some amount of good.
“So you think I’m good now?” Vinyl dragged the conversation back on topic. She wanted to know the answer to this, to know for just how much longer Shining was going to be around her for.
“I think your better.” Twinkle admitted, his voice dropping in volume. “I think good comes with time, now ‘better’ is all we can ask for.” There was a pause, one that Vinyl could hear the cogs in his head turning during. She never liked that, it only meant bad things for her. “I just think there’s a few more things to do and I’ll submit my report and we’ll talk to Princess Celestia.”
“Like what?” Vinyl couldn’t think of anything else they had to do. She was a little more at peace with her parents’ passing, she got her job back, found Lily and finally ended things with Sky. She couldn’t think of any more pressing emotional trauma that Twinkle could dig through.
“I want you to talk to Glory again.” Vinyl slouched in her seat, causing the stallion to pat her back with his hoof. “I know, I know. You don’t want to, you think it’s done. I just think that, now that you’ve calmed down some, you need to explain things to Glory. She deserves to at least tell you goodbye, don’t you think?” When Twinkle was right, Vinyl hated him for it. Right now, Vinyl hated him a lot more than usual. No one should be denied a goodbye, she knew how that felt.
“Yeah…” The mare relented, slouching a bit more and leaning against the guard. “You’re right.”
“Things were rocky with Intrepid, too. I think we should go talk to him as well. Just so you and I both can smooth things over with him.” Vinyl hadn’t really thought about Intrepid since this Ponyville stuff started. Celestia, she still felt so bad for him. The anger and pain in his voice after Cadance’s betrayal was next to unreal...was he still like that? Had he calmed down or just transitioned into the hole known as depression?
“Anything else?” It seemed like he had already thought this stuff out, and Vinyl knew he had at least one more thing up his sleeves. “Because I really don’t know how many emotional final moments I can do in one week, Twinkle. You gotta learn to give me a break.” That earned a throaty chuckle out of the stallion.
“Uncle B. You need to tell him about you and Glory. That’s going to really be the final test of that particular choice of yours, I think. If you can get away from him without changing your mind, then it’s final.” Oh no...Vinyl hadn’t even thought about what Uncle B would think about this. He would be pissed, and he would yell which would lead to Vinyl yelling and being mad. That was going to be pure chaos, that was pretty obvious.
“Then I guess we have to talk about us.” That one caught Vinyl off guard. She blinked and looked at Shining questioningly. “What?” He asked, the same expression on his face.
“What do you mean ‘what’?” Vinyl pushed Shining off of her and leaned back, trying to get some distance between them. “Us. What about us?” Vinyl had assumed that he wouldn’t just leave her entirely, in fact she thought they could probably...well, be a little bit more than friends. There was obvious interest there, she knew they both felt it. He had literally confessed his feelings just the other night!
“I mean ‘us’. Like as a couple.” Shining blushed at that, the big softy. Like ‘couple’ was a naughty word he was saying for the first time when actually knowing the meaning. “I can’t exactly date you while we’re bound, so I figured we would try it out once we were done.”
“I kinda figured we would. I thought that’s what our talk was about the other night.” Vinyl was not one for forgone conclusions, but it had seemed pretty set in stone to her. Shining had confessed, she had reciprocated and they’ve been a little closer ever since. Cut and dry, really. Then again, the obliviousness of stallions was not to be underestimated.
“Well good.” Shining once again leaned his head against hers. “Because I really like you, Vinyl Scratch.” Vinyl didn’t know why, but her heart did not fill with love with that statement. Not entirely anyways. There was a small amount of dread that took up some of her feelings. She couldn’t explain why, but it was certainly primal and very real.
“Yeah.” Vinyl responded, choking down the negative feelings. “I like you too, Twinkle.” She tried to cover up the doubt in her voice, and apparently did a good job. The stallion didn’t budge or question it, he simply sat there with his head against hers.
Vinyl prayed these feelings would leave, because she didn’t want another good thing to be ruined. Not again.
----
Cadance waited patiently in the her personal study. Stacks upon stack of files surrounding her, all organized into very specific piles to be addressed during discussion. Now all she had to do was wait for the Interim-Captain to answer her summons so they could talk about the events of tomorrow.
It had been a daunting task to review all of the files and critically analyze the evidence to any degree, but Cadance had gotten it done. She had found a few more discrepancies in her second readthrough of the files that had weeded even more of the nobility out of Galea’s hunt. Hopefully the Interim-Captain would cooperate with her demands.
The door opened, and in trotted the baby blue mare that was soon to be Captain of the Royal Guard. She strode with purpose, each step meaningful and calculated. Her stone gray eyes scoured the entire room as she walked, critically going over everything within her line of sight.
Cadance could see why she was intimidating to other ponies, but the young Alicorn had seen the bad side of Princess Celestia before. No mere mare could scare or intimidate her after that. Galea was going to have to be clever or downright terrifying to get around Cadance’s personal red tape.
“Princess Cadance.” The mare bowed. On top of her head, Cadance spied a pair of black rimmed glasses stowed away. Cadance put on her warmest smile to address Galea.
“I didn’t know you wore glasses, Galea.” The pink princess was recalling everything that Celestia had taught her about being an effective and more commanding leader. Like: always control the flow of the conversation. Never respond to a question or address directly, always answer with your own question or a related topic.
“Oh.” The mare stood up straight, her horn lighting up and removing the glasses from her head. “I’m sorry, Your Highness. I didn’t realize I left those there. I was in the middle of some paperwork for tomorrow and I must’ve forgot them.” Cadance could tell that the little act of forgetting something so trivial got on Galea’s nerves, as she was trying not to speak from behind clenched teeth. “I have to wear them when I’m reading, Doctor prescribed.”
“Please, sit.” Cadance motioned to the chair across from her while pulling the special edition of the Canterlot Post from underneath her desk. “If I may ask, why did you fire one-hundred guards? I’m afraid I’m not exactly in the loop.” Cadance had made sure that Shining Armor still had his job, she may be done with him for now, but she still worried.
“It was a message.” Galea stated with a hint of a smirk. “The ones I let go weren’t good guard. I assume they started with the most pure of intentions, of course, but they did not execute their duties with such lofty ideals.” Galea leaned back in her chair. “I needed to let everypony know that I will not accept weakness or failure in my guard. Only the best for the best city in Canterlot.” Now, Cadance was sure of Galea’s loyalty to Country and Crown, but there were still some things to iron out before Cadance would be satisfied.
“Why let go of your top officials, as well?” That caught the Interim-Captain off her guard, as if she didn’t think anypony had noticed. Her gray eyes produced just a spark of panic. “I’m no expert in the matter, but I believe ponies such as Hypolite, Hussar, and Arditi were never accused of anything more than being the best at what they do.”
“I wanted to let fresh blood have a say in things.” To give Galea credit, she was able to keep incredibly poised and think on her hooves even when caught off guard. Cadance had to admire that. “Just like in produce, you get rid of the old first and let some of the fresher stuff have a shot.” Cadance wasn’t sure she liked the analogy, but she would let it slide for now.
“Very well.” The Princess relented as she put the newspaper away and diverted her full attention to the much smaller mare across the desk. “Now about your warrants for the nobles…” Cadance levitated the three different stacks of folder around Galea. “...there are currently two-hundred and forty-six nobles serving in the House representing as many families from Canterlot to Whinnyapolis. You have filed accusations again two-hundred and forty-five.” Cadance leaned in closer to the mare. “Would you mind telling me why Twilight Satin isn’t here?”
“It’s a quite simple answer, Princess Cadance.” Galea responded flatly as soon as Cadance had finished speaking. “I could dig nothing up on her. I know that may be hard to believe, seeing as how I have vanished parking tickets as evidence for some, but it is true. Every lead I chased down turned up nothing, every record that was supposed to be either didn’t exist or had nothing of interest in it. So either Twilight Satin is the greatest criminal mastermind to ever live, or she is the cleanest noble in the house.” Galea leaned in so the mares’ muzzles were only a few inches away from each other. “I find the former to be much more unbelievable, as both you and Princess Celestia are connected to the family. Imagine how bad it would look if it turned out they were nothing but corrupt criminals.”
Cadance froze in place. She hadn’t thought of that, not at all. Quickly, she searched Galea’s gaze for some modicum of what she suspected, and it was there. The knowing glint that said exactly what Galea was implying: there was something on Satin and Galea was sparing the royalty of the humiliation of such a thing getting out. This was nothing but another service to the crown, one that Cadance was now complicit in.
“Of course, it would be awful.” Cadance finally managed to speak after a pause of a few seconds. She needed to change the subject, not dwell on it any further. The Princess leaned back into her chair and picked up her first stack of files. “These are the nobles that I will sign the warrants for. A total of one-hundred and sixty-nine, all of the warrants are already in the files and ready to be served tomorrow.” Galea took that stack in her magic and set it near the door so she could take it on the way out. “This stack-” Cadance picked up the next one. “-totals fifty and I am sending them and the evidence over to The Department of Equestrian Intelligence so they can dig a little deeper. Either I’m dubious of some of this evidence, or I suspect much greater crimes.” Cadance sat that one next to her desk and took up the last stack. “Twenty-seven nobles whom I cannot recommend warrants for as the evidence against them is either not serious enough or not consistent enough to do so.”
“Very well, Your Highness.” Galea nodded. “I, and the rest of Equestria, thank you for your expedience and understanding in the matter.” Galea stood up to leave, grabbing her warrant stack with her magic.
“One more thing, Galea.” Cadance called out, ready to deliver her final question. The mare stopped, raising an eyebrow. “With a possible two-hundred and nineteen nobles either arrested or under federal investigation, how do you suppose the House of Nobles will function? We require a quorum of at least one-hundred and fifty members to fulfill the duties of the House.” Cadance hadn’t figured that part out, so she figured it wouldn’t hurt to get Galea’s input.
“Oh, Your Highness-” Galea started with that grin that Cadance did not like. “-I never thought you’d ask.”