Mysterious coronachan resistance? · 3:47pm Mar 18th, 2020
In addition to the asymptomatic patients, there is a very puzzling thing taking place in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Thus far, countries below the Mediterranean region of Africa, at the southern part of the Sahara and below, there are only a TOTAL of 244 cases of COVID-19, with only 2 deaths.
I've been paying close attention to that region, as I had a suspicion early on the population might have some innate resistance due to the high consumption of bush meat, meaning they'd have exposure to many types of endogenous viruses, including zoonotic coronaviruses. I surmised that a subclinical infection could take place, with one virus similar enough to COVID-19 inducing a very mild illness, but resulting in enough of an immune response to lend at least partial immunity to COVID-19.
Thus far, this region of Africa has had a drastically lower rate of infection, in spite of social conditions which should result in very high transmission and severity: severe overcrowding and poverty in urban centers, and low sanitation. The number of cases has taken 3 weeks to double from about 121 in late-February. That's a rate of only 20% or so of the average rate for the rest of the world.
I'll continue to monitor the region to see if this continues. If the trend holds for another month, it could hint at a natural vaccine in the form of these endogenous coronaviruses, which could be identified by antibody immunosorbent assays.
Much in the way smallpox was defeated by inoculating people with the similar but much milder cowpox, this could be a fast-track method to immunizing hundreds of millions of people.
Interesting; thanks for sharing the observations.
Sadly, antivaxxers continue to insist that death is preferable to autism. (I know, but that's the part of their argument that should be getting CPS involved)
So...what I'm hearing is I should eat more bacon to stave off coronavirus.
I have this condition where I make words say what I want them to.
Or, this means we just need to travel to Africa for a few weeks and ride this thing out.
I'll get the plane tickets.
5222963
Most people who have that condition don't actually realize they have it.
Huh, interesting.
5222950 Yeah, even years after that extremely biased and debunked paper was thrown out and the researcher barred for deliberately manipulating all the data.
There's ZERO link between vaccination and autism. The biggest population studies ever conducted proved it beyond any shadow of doubt.
There MAY be a link between certain vaccinations and allergies, but it's rather minor and the solution there is wait until school age. Then the association disappears.
5222990 And so, we all get malaria and sleeping sickness instead.
5222963 The solution is yes.
5223332
And even if there was a link, autism is still better than being literally ****ing dead. There is a government agency whose one job is to remove children from parents who are okay with their children dying, and it's not doing its job.
5223532 If you ever hung out on Tumblr... you'd rather be dead than endure THAT degree of autism!
It's not the cool autism, like 4chan!
Maybe they don't have enough testing kits?
Oh, and here's a fun fact: there a pretty major demographic overlap of "voted for Trump" and "is at risk of dying from Coronachan" so his refusal to take the threat seriously is shooting himself in the foot on a downright impressive level. I remember saying, in the context of "get woke go broke" and his refusal to denounce the alt-right, that he at least had the sense not to alienate his customer base. Apparently, he doesn't have the sense to extend that to "don't kill your customers". Even drug dealers understand that one,
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Not if we get eaten by lions, crocs, and hippos first
5223647 I don't think that's the issue. Of the cases they have, there are only 2 deaths so far. That's why I'm watching for the next 3 weeks. If the case-to-fatality ratio remains the same, that's less than 1% fatality, and would almost certainly indicate at least a partial immunity in the population.
I'm also keeping track of India and several countries in that region which also have very low numbers of cases. India, despite its immense population, crowding, pollution, and other risk factors for spread, has only about 200 cases, and 4 deaths. The fatality rate of 2% isn't much better than other countries, but the rate of spread appears quite slow. Again, is there an innate immunity in at least a portion of the population, or have they taken unique measures which are proving very effective at slowing the virus' transmission?
Singapore, meanwhile, has had incredible success treating infections: 354 total cases, 124 recoveries, and no deaths thus far.
There is a possibility the old anti-malarial chloroquine may be able to treat infections by blocking the receptor the virus must bind to in order to infect cells. It was proven a month ago to be effective at blocking the SARS coronavirus by this mechanism. Chloroquine has a long-established safety record, and is well-tolerated at moderate doses. It's also very cheap to mass-produce: about $0.04/dose. It this pans out, we'll shortly have a means to radically slow the infection's spread, buying time to prepare a very effective vaccine.
5223649 Wow, so you mean all those Chinese people voted for Trump?
Most of the deaths have thus far been in WASHINGTON STATE... which kinda sorta went for Hillary. Next highest death rate: New York, with 38 deaths... big time went for Hillary.
WA and NY account for HALF the total deaths in the USA thus far, and nearly half of the total number cases: about 6,700 of the tot 14,300
The reddest state of all, Wyoming, has 18 cases and no deaths.
So, I don't know who's feeding you the bogus stats, but I suspect they're fluent in Mandarin.
Also, next time you want to make this political, keep in mind you're matching wits with a GENIUS who ACTUALLY WORKS IN A RESEARCH HOSPITAL.
5223957 Mmmmmmmmmm... (lol, vore)
5224178
Hey, maybe it's also because of the warmer temperatures. It would explain even India's since they are at around 30 C now.
5224187
Fair enough when it comes to actual cases, I was more talking about the age demographics. Trump, for example, is old enough to feasibly die from it and is blatantly doing nothing to protect himself in the same video where he's notionally warning everyone.
5224353 Possibly, but there are other very hot countries in the Middle East which have lots of infections. The other issue is that crowded conditions mean every cough is shooting the virus on to other people. Yet the spread is incredibly slow AND the ones infected are dying at around 1% or less, which is much more suggestive of a significant fraction of the population possessing partial immunity.
5224400 Uhm... Joe Biden... Bernie Sanders... they were still doing rallies. And they're both older than Trump.
So, ya know. Trump is President. He can't just hide in a hole.
Woodrow Wilson came down with the Great Influenza, for instance... after trying really hard to suppress news about how devastating it was and threatening to arrest news agencies who reported on it for damaging the wartime morale. Other leaders did that too. It got the name Spanish Flu because neutral Spain had the only actual free press at the time.
And speaking of free press: IT'S THE CHINESE WUHAN COMMIE CORONAVIRUS!!!
Come at me, Xi! I KNOW YOU'RE WATCHING!! Imma punch you in your Winnie the Pooh face!
5224859
But he can, y'know, not have more than ten people behind him when he's announcing the recommendations that include not having gatherings of more than 10 people. And maybe not shake hands with all of them except the one who actively refused to on the basis that that's another of the things they're actively recommending you not do.
Just... yeah, you're right that pretty much everyone involved in politics is old enough to be at risk of dying from this yet doing little to nothing to protect themselves. Surely even (opposing political party) isn't delusional enough to pull a Weekend At Bernie's out of sheer refusal to believe in death, right?
And of course I already knew that the "Spanish Flu" was called that not because it started in Spain but because Spain was the first country to do anything about it. Given what Spain did in this crisis, excuse me if I hold my praise.
5224924 It's not the same Spain. Remember, in WWII, they became violent fascists under the brutal Franco regime. And then went through a series of unstable governments.
As for the politicians as a whole... well, if they WANT to get infected.. it's not as if we're losing anything of value here.