Off-the-Cuff US Election Forecast · 8:23pm Feb 5th, 2020
After Biden's poor showing in Iowa, Buttigieg will leech enough minority support off of Biden to become an established contender in the national contest. Biden will continue to fall as his long list of baggage catches up to him, Klobuchar won't make any more headway, and Bloomberg, despite his impressive showing in surveys, will ultimately do little in the actual polls; making the nomination a three-way-race between Buttigieg, Sanders, and Warren, with Buttigieg gaining an edge mid-to-late race because he's consolidated the moderates, while Sanders and Warren are splitting the progressives. Ultimately, either Buttigieg successfully consolidates all of the moderates, including minorities, and wins the nomination, or Buttigieg fails to win over enough minorities and Warren peals off enough moderates to clinch it.
Sanders? Encouraged by his populist base and "snubbed by the establishment" a second time, he runs as a third party candidate, acting as a spoiler, and ultimately handing Donald Trump a second term. Violent protests follow, and Trump clamps down on them by restricting rights to assembly and freedom of speech. Things spiral from there.
