Opinion: How Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) became president of México · 10:08pm Jul 2nd, 2018

It's been but just a few hours after the elections in México where the Presidency, both Houses of Congress, 9 State Governors and many District elections were held. México's political state was so devastating and critical that many politicians declared to be running for the presidency since January of 2017 and many used the elections held that year (some governor positions and districts) to make some experimentation to see what kind of strategy would be good for them by the time the big one on 2018 came (it was discovered that working with other parties in coalition gave you more opportunities to win than going alone) and so, the Presidential Elections came, went, and a winner was made: Andrés Manuel López Obrador, or AMLO, for the political party MORENA.

While a video has already been posted about him, I feel a necessity to explain deeper of what's been going on in México which lead to AMLO's victory, because the video explains very little and many on the US knows very little of the situation on it's close neighbor.

Going back on history, to the dictatorship of Porfirio Díaz between the end of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century, México was among the best countries to live in Latin America (along Argentina) with its economy boosting and quickly becoming a Developed Market and a First World Country but it was impossible to deny that Porfirio was using this to become richer himself instead of improving the life of all Mexicans as well that he was persecuting political dissent and the only candidate for any presidential election was Porfirio Díaz himself. All of this exploded on The Mexican Revolution (which is mentioned on the movie The Book of Life) which finished Porfirio's dictatorship but at the cost of destroying México on a civil war that ended (long story short) with the birth of a political party that (thanks to the military) decided that México's presidency would only be chosen through elections and the institutions.

Sadly, no real change was made as the only party winning on those elections was the one in charge and would later change its name to the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI in Spanish) and while it would allow the creation of other political parties (some living more than others) the PRI would make sure to remain in power by creating a culture of corruption, where the only way to move on the social classes was by being friend with the people on the top or by buying your way through it. A culture that would kill anyone who exposed the truth and would blame all of its problems on the US (what better way to justify your problems by blaming your neighbor) while it steal money from its own people.

This party while calling itself Center-Left, it would be more like a chameleon in politics. With a (semi) Conservative Domestic Policy with protectionism, following what the Catholic Church would say, only allowing Mexican companies to grow (and they would only grow if they were well connected with very few exceptions) and creating a culture that would mock the US but try to steal as much money from its tourist as possible. Meanwhile, it would have a (semi) Liberal Policy when it came to the outside, with little intervention on the world affairs with a few exceptions like helping the fight against the Nazi, supporting Mao on China, helping Fidel Castro avoid the US embargo, not supporting Pinochet, etc.

The (almost) 70 years the PRI would rule over México would consist on a constant fight on the PRI itself as there would be divisions fighting among each other for an attempt to be a president and enjoy a good life (as the song goes, "Quítate tu pa' ponerme yo"/"remove yourself so I can come in") which also lead to presidencies of different levels going from the center right to the left (but it would always be the PRI the one commanding) and this internal fights would help for another party to come into power in 2000, know as the National Action Party (PAN)

Back in 1994 to the 2000, it's president decided to change México's policies regarding the US (making it more open, which lead to the creation of NAFTA) but at the cost of a huge hatred from the Mexican people which, combined with many other factors that won't be explained, like the creation of the Electoral National Institute (INE), helped on the victory of Vicente Fox Quesada on the 2000 elections.

The change of government and party, was one of the steps needed for a democracy to finally come to México but 70 years of PRI culture is hard to eliminate and, to make it short, the turbulence that could be on Fox's presidency was made even worse with an event happening on Venezuela, where a Left Wing president called Hugo Chávez was making himself look like a rockstar which, in turn, made many people like him to appear on Latin America to follow his footsteps (Correa in Ecuador, Lula in Brazil, Evo in Bolivia, etc) and México was no exception, his name was AMLO.

Originally from the PRI, then went to the PRD and remained in there until not too long ago, Andrés Manuel was made himself known by being a mayor on one of México's most important city (and doing an, apparently, good job) and decided to ride on Chávez's popularity to become a president on the elections of 2006, where he lost by less of 1% of the votes against Felipe Calderón at which he called a fraud (which he never proved) and then made his own celebration making himself a fake presidential event while the real one was swearing in to become a president.

After that, to make things short, AMLO decided to remain in an eternal political campaign for the next elections and try to capitalize on the mistakes done by Calderón (like declaring war on drugs) and, later, Peña Nieto (like his corruptions scandals) to try to win again the presidency.

So we come to 2017, with a very hatred PRI thanks to Peña Nieto and with AMLO always going on about the evil establishment (while also accepting siding with many corrupt politicians that fled from both the PRI and PAN) and making himself look good and his popularity was on the rise thanks to the PRI's inpopularity and the PAN being unable to show that they were a good option (with very few exceptions) with the best example being the internal fight for the PAN's leadership between Margarita Zavala de Calderón and Ricardo Anaya.

As the year 2017 went on, the polls showed that many supported the idea of Margarita Zavala going for the PAN against AMLO but the PAN's president, RIcardo Anaya, wanted to be the candidate (especially after seeing that coalition parties increased your chances to win) and, after a big political battle that went through 2017, Anaya won the battle when Margarita played a double edged sword where she decided to quit the PAN in the hopes of getting support from the militants in the party but the move failed and Anaya remained in charge and became the candidate for the PAN against AMLO.

From here on out, all the polls would show a surge in AMLO's chances to win the presidency, and always rising, while Anaya would never surpass the 30%. Margarita would then go to the presidential campaign as an independent candidate (and would reach the 10% in some polls) but she was unable to hold the campaign with the funds given to her by the INE (while all the other candidates, including AMLO, would use money from other places to have extra funds)

Suffice to say that, between the PRI's corruption (and hatred towards it by the public), the PAN's incompetence and a population sickened of corruption and wanted a change (like in Venezuela) the Mexicans decided to put their trust on AMLO, some of them not because they believe on him and more because they would choose anything but the other parties as they didn't see as a good alternative, which made him the first president in México to win by more of than 50% of the votes.

It will be reminded that, in México, there's only one round of elections and the one with the most votes win, this is a good measure that ensures that the most popular can ensure its victory by buying votes instead of actually trying to make politics (unlike Colombia, Argentina or Chile)

Suffice to say, what are AMLO's proposals?

From 2006 to 2017 (the year when the protest in Venezuela begun and Maduro's repression and his socialist policies started to sink The Left on a global scale) AMLOs policies were very similar to Chávez's. From remaking the Constitution (with the argument of remaking the Republic), to create a Recall Referendum (like in Venezuela), to nationalize everything, to persecute corrupt politicians, to destroy the establishment, etc. But, when the protest in Venezuela of 2017 came, he started to shape his campaign on a more moderate stand (the only thing showing that he still support Maduro and his policies is that he has never criticized Maduro and always avoid Venezuela when asked about it) first by getting the support of a Christian Protestant party* and stopped talking of some of the policies made by Chávez (like Petro did in Colombia during the second round presidential campaign)

* Protestants in México are persecuted, especially on the border states like Chiapas (where AMLO's party, MORENA, won) so it would be fair to deduce that AMLO gained their support by promising that he would stop the persecution of Christians in México.

Suffice to say, if you want to get more ideas of what kind of person he is, he was congratulated by Dilma Rousseff, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, Rafael Correa, Pablo Iglesias, Gustavo Petro (Colombia) and many more of the same gang we all know (tell who follows you and I will tell you who you are) but he was also congratulated by people that believes in democracy (like Alan García, Perú) and we already know that Trump had a nice talk with him not too long ago.

So, what is AMLO going to do?

It's hard to tell, he always changes his stances and never makes himself clear, which makes it very hard what AMLO is the one coming to the presidency of México on December 1st.

What do I expect from AMLO?

For a President to fail means that a country will fail. I don't want México to fail and go through what I'm going through. It's not nice, nobody deserves this.

How much power will AMLO have?

It depends, the Presidency was quickly said but there's still no result on the Senate and Representatives and they are the ones that could mean the difference between having check and balances or having full power.

What if AMLO doesn't follow Chávez's policies?

Good, México got saved.

What if AMLO follows Chávez's policies?

If that means that Maduro and his goons will escape to México and never come back, maybe I'll get something good out of it. Either way, my best wishes to México, the only reason why Chávez's policies didn't destroyed us was because of the oil boom that lasted for over a decade but, without that oil boom, México could follow the path made by Maduro or Allende's Chile. Best wishes México.

In the end, I glossed over a lot. But I hope this gives you all an idea of what's been going on through México which lead to AMLO's victory.

It wasn't rigged (what makes an election trustworthy is a subject we can talk about later, suffice to say, there were good measures that made that election trustworthy) and it wasn't a dumb population. It was a desire for change that hated the 70 years of corruption encapsulated on 6 years of PRI and that didn't see an alternative on a PAN controlled by a young ambitious man that was unable to accept that he wasn't a good candidate (although he did give the best proposals after Margarita Zavala) and only saw AMLO as the best alternative.

Only time will tell what will happen but, one way or another, México will be very different on the next six years.

P.S.: Of course the BBC would blame Trump for this, they are that demagoguery. Nobody voting on México gave a dang about Trump, they only cared about Corruption and the rising crime.

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