Hypothesis #4: The Borders of Twilight’s Kingdom · 3:05pm Nov 16th, 2017
I have been thinking about Twilight’s Kingdom – it’s actually the longest Points of Canon series post in terms of word count – rather a lot. Probably too much, seeing how that post ended up comparatively unread. Anyway, here, I’m about to offer some answers to the questions I posed in there…
This is hardly well-founded canonically, being purely interpretational. I’m not reconstructing pieces from the shapes of pieces around them as much as I am filling a large hole with pieces I think look nice. I do think it makes a good story that remains compatible with all the available facts, however.
Axioms
Along the way, we have to dismiss the two obvious interpretations of Celestia – the Chessmaster Celestia, who plans so far ahead of anyone that she can anticipate anything, and the Kwizats Haderach Celestia, who is so precognitive, that she sees the entirety of the future, slavishly following her own foresight and unable to deviate from it, lest the outcome is worse than desired.
Both must be dismissed, because they are unfalsifiable: It is impossible to imagine a piece of canonical evidence that would prove them false. No matter what sort of crazy nonsense the show crew get up to – they get up to a lot – it won’t disprove either of these two. Therefore, discussing them is meaningless: they are solely a matter of belief. They aren’t even useful in terms of authorship, because if there is no way to out-think or out-foresee a character, any conflict automatically evaporates. Either is in fact a Plot Device Celestia, who is not a character at all, but merely a six-limbed interpretation of authorial fiat.
It follows that we need to find such an interpretation that doesn’t stray into those extremes if we want any discussion to be useful. Fortunately, the very evidence that most people call evidence of Celestia’s prescience gives us a line that we can pull to unravel this mess of a sweater into something much more sensible looking.
Idea #1: The Friendship Journal
I have called your attention to the fact that the Friendship Journal can be observed on the stained-glass window commemorating Twilight’s ascension as early as Princess Twilight Sparkle. As we know from Castle Mane-ia, the very idea to record friendship lessons in there definitely dates to afterwards, and its eventual importance for Twilight is impossible to predict without a degree of prescience.
Which would exclude any interpretation in which Celestia, who has to be the one who ordered this window made, is not prescient. However, there’s a loophole, which I noticed when MitchH commented:
The symbolism of the two books in the iconography of the window is obvious - wisdom of the past, potential of the future.
It’s an expression of progressive, whiggish morality.
It is possible for this book to be depicted without Celestia or anyone else being prescient at all, if it exists at the time the window is created, is thought to be important, but the importance ascribed to it is not the importance it eventually acquires. It’s a very pretty, decorated notebook, don’t you think? Gemstone-inlaid cover, bright colors… Twilight herself has always used scrolls instead.
Imagine, that at the party after Twilight’s coronation Celestia offers her a book, saying so: “I wanted to give you something special, but then I realized that there’s nothing I can give you that would be worthy, because I trust you to exceed it. Here is a blank notebook. I hope that one day, you will write your greatest spellwork in it.” And that is why the symbolism of two notebooks, with Twilight connecting the past and the future, is immortalized in her stained-glass window. Celestia expected a feat of magical knowledge to one day materialize through it.
Twilight is happy to receive this gift, but obviously, has nothing profound to write in there at the time. Later, when she sees Celestia and Luna’s journal, an important idea comes to her: That there is nothing more important than lessons learned through friendship, because friendship is magic. That this is her greatest magical work, in progress.
And it turns out to be so, in a way entirely unexpected to all the participants. After all, remember Celestia singing?
Your destiny’s uncertain
And that’s sometimes hard to take
But it will become much clearer
With every new choice you make
If she knew for certain what’s going to happen next, if she had any degree of actual prescience, that would be a lie.
Idea #2: Discord’s Game
Assuming the above, we don’t need Discord to be prescient to realize that the Friendship Journal is important either.
There is something easy to forget, because for a long time pony fanon had no villains other than Discord at all to use. That is, the fact that Discord is not, per se, a villain, and has never been – he’s an antagonist. The difference is subtle but important. Discord’s prototype is Star Trek’s Q, and there’s one thing to say about Q: He’s alien. The most alien creature that Star Trek’s humanity interacts with to any significant degree, even. Discord is, just as much, primarily an alien.
An alien with blue and orange morality, who does not have any internalized social norms, and is actually quite inquisitive. Remember Three’s A Crowd? The entire episode is an experiment on Discord’s part, deliberately devised to test a theory about friendship. That such testing itself may be harmful to said friendship has never even occurred to him, and he’s intensely curious about the whole thing. Also, completely fearless: Pretty much nothing has ever been able to actually hurt him… except Fluttershy, and he’s still wondering how exactly did that work.
This is why Discord finds the pattern in the Journal: The fact that Twilight got a book to write down magic, but used it to write down experiences instead, piques his interest. He found the pattern first, because he was looking for a pattern to make his own theories, and he can’t pass up a chance to show off that he’s beaten Twilight at studying friendship, even just a little. Tirek tries to butter Discord up with complimenting his intellect, successfully, and while it doesn’t look like Discord uses said intellect much, he actually does – but his motivation is not enlightened self-interest as much as it is satisfying his curiosity.
1. Why was Celestia interested in turning Discord to her side is a different, separate discussion, but I have a few good ideas.
We often see this episode as Yet Another Test for Twilight, but why would it be, after her apotheosis? Celestia’s done with testing Twilight, but she’s not done teaching, and now she has another student. This time, sending Discord against Tirek is a test for Discord. One that Celestia presumed Discord would pass.1 The task he was given was to turn Tirek if possible, capture him if not. “Try to make friends, you have much in common,” is probably what she told him.
Celestia reasoned that if Tirek did not reappear for so long after his escape – five to nine months – there is no way he would have avoided the kindness of random strangers, so if he’s still around Equestria, somewhere, he might be redeemed as well. Expected failure modes would be Discord killing Tirek or letting him run away to continue, and those, Celestia was ready for.
Unfortunately for Celestia, Discord isn’t done experimenting either, and being offered “freedom,” as Tirek puts it, decides he should try that, too. For comparison. After all, seeing if he can make a friend on his own is such a very interesting experiment, shouldn’t he try to push it as far as he can? So Discord, ever the lord of chaos, fails the test in a way nopony predicted, while trying to creatively exceed Celestia’s expectations, and that is why he winks at her in the end – it’s an “Oops, sorry, tried too hard and made a mess!” gesture.
It’s probable that the reason this did happen is that in one way or another, Tirek knew much more about Discord than vice versa, and certainly, much more than Celestia expected he would know.
Idea #3: The Nuclear Football
So Celestia switches to damage control mode: She knows she made an epic mistake, got overconfident. But the “why” can wait, right now, the important thing is to prevent further damage as quickly as possible. What’s her plan? We don’t know the details, but what we see her actually do is rather telling. What she tells Twilight is:
- Here is our nation’s nuclear football – literally, because the power of four alicorns amounts to over 20 kilotons.
- Do not tell anyone you have it, not even your friends, because that would endanger them.
- Do not allow Tirek to have it under any circumstances.
- ???
- Profit.
Don’t you feel like there are a few directives missing here? Just keeping the nuclear football away from Tirek would not resolve the crisis, yet Celestia clearly expects this action to result in resolving it. Let’s not over-think it, and instead, assume the obvious: What’s missing is the directive to use the nuclear football, and a description of how to do it.
A plan that would result in the capture or demise of both Tirek and Discord.
Twilight arrives to meet Celestia and company in daylight, but by the time she returns to Ponyville, it’s already time for sunrise. What has Twilight been doing for eight hours? Listening to Celestia’s plan, dealing with the Sun and Moon, and then, probably, discussing the details of the plan with the ponies from S.M.I.L.E, because sending regular army after Tirek would be just feeding the fire, and volunteer mass efforts have failed already anyway, leaving many pegasi incapacitated.
The particulars are not that important, however, since Twilight’s eventual actions were not what Celestia planned. Because…
Idea #4: Twilight’s Game
Twilight did not want to do what Celestia told her and dawdled for as long as she possibly could. No plan for dealing with Tirek can be effective unless it is also a plan that neutralizes Discord. But doing that would hurt Fluttershy even further than Discord’s betrayal did, because in that case, there would be no way for him to make amends. Twilight also had a very recent experience telling her that Discord might know more about friendship than she expected previously, or at least, is much more serious about studying it than he normally lets on – the Journal hint, which was already proven correct by that point. Just abandoning Discord was unacceptable, obnoxious as he is, he does not deserve it, because friendship does not deserve it.
At the same time, simply telling the Mane 5 that Twilight has the full set of alicorn magic in her really would endanger them: it would involve telling Fluttershy what Twilight is supposed to do with it, and result in an internal conflict that would be very damaging to the group even if Celestia’s plan succeeded.
So Twilight needs a plan to separate Discord from Tirek somehow and then disable Tirek. But all she comes up with is this logical chain:
- The Elements were effective at freeing Luna from the Nightmare and incapacitating Discord without doing any lasting harm.
- The Chest is of the Tree, just like the Elements.
- Therefore, the Chest might offer the solution.
- The last key is missing. There’s no hope to complete a friendship task under the circumstances and get a key legitimately. But maybe, there’s a way to circumvent it, if she could just find out more about the Tree…
The Mane 5 know Twilight pretty well, so they pick up that this is what she’s trying to figure out rather quickly. Unfortunately, as Twilight fumbles about trying to even get to her research location, her time runs out, Tirek captures the Mane 5 and Discord, and Twilight is forced to improvise.
And then she wins, because friendship is worth more to her than all the alicorn magic in Equestria.
Side Questions
Q: But we saw Celestia have a prophetic vision!
A: Not necessarily – there are other kinds. I propose that what we have actually seen is a case of remote viewing. Luna’s phrase “You know as well as I that this was not a dream, but a vision” just means that she was able to distinguish it from a dream as she caught Celestia having it. Notice that should Celestia have such a power, it would also explain the scene in the end of The Return of Harmony when Twilight receives the letters – and even better than precognition would.
Q: So did Tirek know Discord personally or not?
A: Undefined. We can just tell that Tirek knows too much, but that can happen in a number of ways, most of which have no bearing on the ideas presented here. For a twist, it’s possible that Tirek knew Discord personally, but not vice versa: If Discord can indeed time travel, it could be that for him their first encounter hasn’t happened yet.
Q: What about the two Star Swirls and the chrono-mess induced by Shadow Play?
A: Outside the scope of this hypothesis, but expect me to use the things I noticed when studying Twilight’s Kingdom eventually.
So, tell me. Does this makes more sense or doesn’t it?
Has the virtue of Twilight being more self-aware and intelligent than what we get on screen. But also has the draw-back of placing a great deal of plot and thought off-screen and inaccessible to the casual viewer. The presented Twilight is sort of a naif, reacting to events and being blown hither and yon by the plot. Your Twilight is more of a Princess Bartleby, equivocating until a more acceptable option presents itself.
I dont really have anything to add.
This makes the most sense out of everything else put out there that I have come across.
4727184 That does sound more in-character for Twilight, though.
So what was Celestia's original plan for Twilight with the alicorn magic? Whatever it was, it needed to be something she could do better than Celestia or Luna themselves. There's the onscreen "be marginally less conspicuous and obvious," and then there's "have had a different history with Discord." So, she was going to appeal to Discord's feelings... somehow? But how?
4727206
I’ll admit that’s where I’m drawing a blank. I’m sure it involved decisive action that Twilight found unacceptable but Celestia judged to be necessary, though, and probably, one or two heavy weapon MacGuffins.
20 kilotons is a lot of energy.
Makes sense up until there's still a big question mark about the why of putting all that magic in Twilight.
I really like this idea in a lot of ways. In trying to understand Discord, especially early season Discord, I too generally say "what would Q do" and then go from there, which this really fits. It even fits with his weird behavior in "What About Discord" really well.Discord may well have realized Twilight was likely to unlock the chest soon and not worried about it, simply because he's shown a complete lack self-preservation sense. Of course, this interpretation also makes Discord come off as much more "eldritch abomination from beyond time and space."
Celestia is a smart ruler who takes calculated risks, but forgets that she can't predict Discord's actions because he is a being so unlike anything else she's really dealt with before.
My problem with the idea of Celestia making the journal an important stained glass window subject ahead of time is the S7 episode. They stuck that journal in a corner and filled it with rotting food. Would they really do that if the journal was some kind of official coronation present from Celestia and the subject of its own historical monument?
So the plan that we didn't hear on screen was Celestia basically telling Twilight "ok, stash the alicorn magic while you hide out near the tree and figure out how to crack the box, then point it at Tirek and Discord." That's probably the most sensible plan they could come up with considering the circumstances, and yeah, Fluttershy would not have been helped sitting there, waiting to aim whatever version of the Rainbow Orbital Laser cannon at Discord.
So Discord winking, Celestia kind of laughing it off and Discord being forgiven is really because of a principle some zookeepers use with tigers: Tiger attacks are always the fault of the human, because tigers have a set of instincts and the question becomes "what did I do to provoke that set of instincts?"
I feel like a followup will be needed though, because clearly by the most recent Discord episode Discord has adopted far more conventional morality and empathy towards Fluttershy, and even other ponies besides Fluttershy. What do we think are the changes that caused this?
You might need to explain where these eight hours came from, just for the sake of anyone reading this blog who hasn’t already looked at your “Twilight’s Kingdom” analysis, or forgot a few details.
4727440
Eh, I’ve met people like that, without the chaos magic. Not quite as rare as you think.
Twilight wouldn’t. I don’t think the rest of them even noticed it was the same notebook. :)
I suspect there were more immediately practical (and deadly) options which Twilight refused. If even the old castle contains such things as Inspiration Manifestation, what sort of last resort weapons might the Canterlot Castle contain?
There are two episodes that I think are explicitly pivotal: Three’s A Crowd and Dungeons and Discord.
In Three’s A Crowd, Discord ends up being nursed by Fluttershy for at least several days, possibly a week or so, and previously, he was mostly communicating with her by letters. I expect this is actually the longest anyone except Celestia and Luna interacted with him to that date, uninterrupted. This starts the practice of tea parties with Fluttershy, and that’s when he learns “how Fluttershy does it.” That’s enough to adjust to Fluttershy, but not everyone else, yet.
In Dungeons and Discord – which I believe happened prior to What about Discord? – Discord gets to engage everyone else in simulated adventure for a joint purpose. This actually gets you a lot of social and communicative experience rather quickly if you know how to use it, and Discord is certainly smart enough. It had to have taken weeks of repeated play sessions, but that is when the rest of the Mane 6 warm up to him, and he starts to understand things properly.
4727547
Oh all right…
Really appreciate your hard work on this. I love seeing this much thought put into what we're shown.
4727681
Not rare at all in the Obscurian section of the chaos dimension.
I suppose they just jumbled it in the pile when they were fixing up her castle and forgot about it.
There might be other options, but I doubt any of them would be seen as a plausible threat. With Discord's magic and Tirek's caution and ruthlessness, I can't think of any other weapon that could possibly have beaten them. Heck, the original elements of harmony probably wouldn't work unless they had over the horizon targeting or something (which Rainbow Power has).
Interesting. Those are two episodes I haven't really associated before with a change in Discord's character, but when you plot in the probable epilogues they do lead to a great deal more socialization and interaction for Discord.
4728039
Funny you should say that…